Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Intrade Betting Dems Lose The Senate
Intrade ^ | October 31, 2010

Posted on 10/31/2010 9:52:48 AM PDT by redfog

Prediction market: The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections:

Last price: 48.9


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: intrade; senate
This market predicted a GOP Senate takeover in early Oct 2010 and then swung back in the Dems favor. Now, it is once again predicting a GOP Senate.

I believe polls are using models that under-predict GOP voter intensity by 1-2% and that we do indeed have a good chance to retake the Senate.

Can't wait until Tuesday evening, 11/2/2010!

1 posted on 10/31/2010 9:52:54 AM PDT by redfog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: redfog

IIRC, the Senate almost always switches when the House does. Why should this year be different. BTW, Google 1894 election. Spooky.


2 posted on 10/31/2010 9:54:35 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Every decent man is ashamed of the government he lives under. ~Mencken)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: redfog

It’s been under 50 like this for several times over the past 7-10 days.

CoD is still going for $7 a share.


3 posted on 10/31/2010 9:55:05 AM PDT by library user
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: redfog

Hardly surprising. You have to go back to 1917 to find a case in which the House switched but the Senate didn’t follow. And this may mean the polls are underestimating the degree of Republican enthusiasm. Its going to be big and we’ll know how big it is early Tuesday evening.

Of course this site will be down til Wednesday, unless Jim Rob is planning to bring additional servers online beforehand just for Tuesday,


4 posted on 10/31/2010 9:56:32 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: redfog
Actually not. Intrade does not count the two "Independents" for purposes of this contract. So It is saying that it is 48% that the Republicans to get to 49 or more, not 51.

In the absence of cheating, the Republicans will do better. But Nevada, Illinois and Washington are three states where winning the vote may not be enough. May need 52% to count 50%.

5 posted on 10/31/2010 9:59:55 AM PDT by bIlluminati (Don't just hope for change, work for change in 2010.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

“Of course this site will be down til Wednesday, unless Jim Rob is planning to bring additional servers online beforehand just for Tuesday,”

I hope you’re wrong but I’m afraid you’re right...


6 posted on 10/31/2010 10:03:03 AM PDT by Magic Fingers
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: redfog

“it is once again predicting a GOP Senate.”

IIRC, for at least several electoral cycles, In-trade and its ilk (where people have to put their money where their mouth is) have outperformed traditional polls in predicting electoral results. The MSM has been desperately spinning that Dems will squeak by with a narrow Senate majority. I believe those placing bets at In-trade know better.


7 posted on 10/31/2010 10:08:38 AM PDT by DrC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Magic Fingers

Yup. This site will be so popular it will crash from overload. I wonder if Jim Rob’s server gods are listening. ;-)


8 posted on 10/31/2010 10:19:41 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: DrC
“it is once again predicting a GOP Senate.”

Yet the contract for Republicans holding 50 seats in the Senate after the election is only 21.1...

Must have to do with the independents, as cited in a previous post.
9 posted on 10/31/2010 10:29:14 AM PDT by BikerJoe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: redfog
Charles Krauthammer was predicting the Senate probably stays Dem, and it would be the "worst Obama scenario" with the House Pubbie.

Yeah, but what about the country, Chuck?

Everybody seems to be getting the same talking points, and running with them, for the most part.

10 posted on 10/31/2010 10:31:40 AM PDT by Calvin Locke
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Calvin Locke

No one wants to be surprised so if the GOP exceeds the low bar they’ve set for it, they can say that’s what they expected to happen all along.


11 posted on 10/31/2010 10:35:13 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: redfog
Senate and House seats no one thought were in play will turn Republican, shocking..:)
12 posted on 10/31/2010 12:30:05 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: redfog

For those trading (or thinking about trading) on the Iowa Electronic Market — they have reached the odd decision that a Lisa Murkowski win in Alaska will be treated as a Democrat win. This, in spite of the fact that Murkowski is a registered Republican write-in candidate.

The IEM has had a lot of success in the past. Although I really disagree with their decision (how can you count someone who registers as a Republican write-in candidate as a Non-Republican?), I hope this doesn’t come back to bite them — I’m actually concerned that someone will sue them.

Of course one way to solve the problem is for Republicans to win 51 seats before they even get to Alaska.


13 posted on 10/31/2010 1:32:03 PM PDT by SweetWilliamsMom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: redfog
Bingo! We were hearing from some FReepers that intratrade was not predicating the Senate going GOP.

Well, here it is!

14 posted on 10/31/2010 7:02:58 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Exactly!


15 posted on 10/31/2010 7:03:57 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: redfog
I wonder what the bookies in Vegas are saying.
16 posted on 10/31/2010 7:05:27 PM PDT by Eye of Unk (If your enemy is quick to anger, seek to irritate him. Sun Tzu, The Art of War.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: redfog

17 posted on 11/01/2010 1:27:24 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: redfog

down to 46.3%...

18 posted on 11/01/2010 2:01:08 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All
The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections


Last Price: 46.3

What does this mean?

46.3 means the market predicts there is a 46.3% chance that this event happens.
19 posted on 11/01/2010 2:08:41 AM PDT by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson