Skip to comments.Intrade Betting Dems Lose The Senate
Posted on 10/31/2010 9:52:48 AM PDT by redfog
Prediction market: The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections:
Last price: 48.9
I believe polls are using models that under-predict GOP voter intensity by 1-2% and that we do indeed have a good chance to retake the Senate.
Can't wait until Tuesday evening, 11/2/2010!
IIRC, the Senate almost always switches when the House does. Why should this year be different. BTW, Google 1894 election. Spooky.
It’s been under 50 like this for several times over the past 7-10 days.
CoD is still going for $7 a share.
Hardly surprising. You have to go back to 1917 to find a case in which the House switched but the Senate didn’t follow. And this may mean the polls are underestimating the degree of Republican enthusiasm. Its going to be big and we’ll know how big it is early Tuesday evening.
Of course this site will be down til Wednesday, unless Jim Rob is planning to bring additional servers online beforehand just for Tuesday,
In the absence of cheating, the Republicans will do better. But Nevada, Illinois and Washington are three states where winning the vote may not be enough. May need 52% to count 50%.
“Of course this site will be down til Wednesday, unless Jim Rob is planning to bring additional servers online beforehand just for Tuesday,”
I hope you’re wrong but I’m afraid you’re right...
“it is once again predicting a GOP Senate.”
IIRC, for at least several electoral cycles, In-trade and its ilk (where people have to put their money where their mouth is) have outperformed traditional polls in predicting electoral results. The MSM has been desperately spinning that Dems will squeak by with a narrow Senate majority. I believe those placing bets at In-trade know better.
Yup. This site will be so popular it will crash from overload. I wonder if Jim Rob’s server gods are listening. ;-)
Yeah, but what about the country, Chuck?
Everybody seems to be getting the same talking points, and running with them, for the most part.
No one wants to be surprised so if the GOP exceeds the low bar they’ve set for it, they can say that’s what they expected to happen all along.
For those trading (or thinking about trading) on the Iowa Electronic Market — they have reached the odd decision that a Lisa Murkowski win in Alaska will be treated as a Democrat win. This, in spite of the fact that Murkowski is a registered Republican write-in candidate.
The IEM has had a lot of success in the past. Although I really disagree with their decision (how can you count someone who registers as a Republican write-in candidate as a Non-Republican?), I hope this doesn’t come back to bite them — I’m actually concerned that someone will sue them.
Of course one way to solve the problem is for Republicans to win 51 seats before they even get to Alaska.
Well, here it is!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.