Skip to comments.Final Pew Poll: GOP Likely to Recapture Control of House
Posted on 10/31/2010 1:16:24 PM PDT by Chet 99
GOP Likely to Recapture Control of House
Pew Research Centers final 2010 pre-election survey finds the Republican Party continuing to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesdays midterm election. The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.
These results suggest little trend in voter opinion nationwide and they track results of a Pew Research Center poll conducted two weeks ago. That survey found the GOP holding a 50% to 40% lead among likely voters. This is the third consecutive poll since September finding a significant Republican lead among likely voters.
The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge. A party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins has been highly correlated in recent midterm elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...
Compared to all the others, this is a tepid, understated headline.
So their likely voter screen assumes over 75% turnout. Not likely.
>> A party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins has been highly correlated in recent midterm elections.
ROFLMAO! Duh... that’s not a coincidence, that’s how it’s SUPPOSED to work!
Whoever finds this remarkable is the same sort of person that would be astonished to discover that fully *half* the population is below the median IQ.
What do expect from PU? Maddy Not-so-Bright’s organization.
We can only hope. Until the votes are in and counted we won’t feel free to relax just based on our knowledge of the Dem fraud machine. It would feel pretty good to watch Obama be battered down. Wonder how he would spin that into his world view. Still more of the “voters still want the change that brought me into office” or possibly “the voters put these people in the majority as a message that they want them to work with me to get things done.” Obama’s “it’s all about me” spin never ceases to amaze.
I wonder if the folks at Pew Polling might possibly suggest that temperatures will probably dip in the Northern Hemisphere this December.
Well we know where the Pew Research Center stands. Lets see what happens Tuesday and then we will know which poll to believe. Zogby has already stated he is a dimoKKKRAT so his polls will tilt in that direction.
Expect Gallup and Rasmussen also to show tightening in their final polls tomorrow, showing a narrower “enthusiasm gap”.
The PU Foundation, a Madeline Halfright organ.
Duh to this Poll!!!
I’m sticking with my prediction:
Super majority House
Simple majority Senate
ACK! I got a visual!
considering it’s PU, the only surprise is they didn’t just lie about the results.
Among all registered voters, preferences are about evenly divided 44% Democrat, 43% Republican.
This is incredibly disturbing. Among all voters Democrats are still preferred? Our economy is an utter disaster, we have a 9.6% unemployment rate, and most people STILL prefer Democrats?
...has likely voters favoring Republicans over Democrats, 48 percent to 42 percent, when asked who they'll vote for in House races Tuesday.
So we still lead with Likely Voters by 6, but that only means we are going to do reasonably well because the other side is lazy and unmotivated. Further, that is down from the last Pew survey a few weeks ago where we were up 10 among likely voters.
Headline: Sun Likely to Rise Tomorrow.
We went up in CNN’s and FOX’s polls. The important thing is the big picture, which is very favorable.
I’m also skeptical about the big wave. RCP moved 4 races toward the Dems today, only 1 towards the GOP. Gallup and Rasmussen both show Obama’s approval increasing to the high 40’s.
We’ll all find out in 50 hours. The suspense is killing me.
Laptops need to be on at local Republican headquarters Tues. night...Loggedd on to good ol FR of course. Non FReepers might enjoy some of our moderate middle of the road commenta.......
Which 4 races were moved to the Dems? I don't see any real changes on the RCP Senate list.
Gallup and Rasmussen both show Obamas approval increasing to the high 40s.
Yeah, this one concerns me. 47% in both polls today and creeping upwards. These 2 polls fluctuate a lot, but I'd have liked to see him moving downwards as we go into election day as maybe some indication of a wave.
These were the unfavorable rating changes today:
10/31 NC8 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up
10/31 NY19 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up
10/31 NY25 Toss Up »»» Leans Dem
10/31 PA8 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up
This was the favorable one:
10/31 NM1 Leans Dem »»» Toss Up
Thanks. For some reason I thought you were talking Senate seats.
In NC the Dems are doing really well with early voting according to what I’ve read. Apparently 46 percent of ballots cast have come from registered Democrats, while 36 percent are from registered Republicans.
In NY, well, I’m just worried about NY in general considering the top of our ticket is Paladino who has been such an utter disaster he could do us great damage down ballot.
Pennsylvania, ugh. It’s the state that always gets away.
In New Mexico we have a great candidate at the top of the ticket, Susana Martinez, so it may help us a lot generating enthusiasm for our other candidates.
You want to bet they all go GOP?
Don’t believe the hype...NC is trending Republican with Early Voting, too.
NC Registered Dems - 44.8%, early ballots - 46% (+1.2)
NC Registered Reps - 31.6%, early ballots - 36% (+4.4)
NC Registered Indy - 23.7%, early ballots - 18% (-5.3)
We have the edge compared to registered voters. Gap is +3.2.
“You want to bet they all go GOP?”
I hope you’re right. I’m just trying to keep expectations realistic. I remember 2 years ago how many here were adamant that Obama would be defeated in a landslide.
Frankly, I don't know many people who were saying McCain would win by a landslide.
We did have a good chance to beat Obama, but McCain sided with Bush on TARP and that finished him.
Expectations now are based on factual data supporting the reality of a GOP tidal wave.
Any predicitions for the Senate?
The last poll in NY-25 has the Democrat 12 points ahead. This is why it was moved to “Leans Dem”. Even in a good year there will be disappointments.