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Final Pew Poll: GOP Likely to Recapture Control of House
Pew ^ | 10-31-10

Posted on 10/31/2010 1:16:24 PM PDT by Chet 99

GOP Likely to Recapture Control of House

Pew Research Center’s final 2010 pre-election survey finds the Republican Party continuing to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesday’s midterm election. The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.

These results suggest little trend in voter opinion nationwide and they track results of a Pew Research Center poll conducted two weeks ago. That survey found the GOP holding a 50% to 40% lead among likely voters. This is the third consecutive poll since September finding a significant Republican lead among likely voters.

The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge. A party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins has been highly correlated in recent midterm elections.

(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; 2010polls; gopcomeback; pew

1 posted on 10/31/2010 1:16:26 PM PDT by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

Compared to all the others, this is a tepid, understated headline.


2 posted on 10/31/2010 1:17:59 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: Chet 99
The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote...

So their likely voter screen assumes over 75% turnout. Not likely.

3 posted on 10/31/2010 1:19:11 PM PDT by xjcsa (Ridiculing the ridiculous since the day I was born.)
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To: Chet 99

>> A party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins has been highly correlated in recent midterm elections.

ROFLMAO! Duh... that’s not a coincidence, that’s how it’s SUPPOSED to work!

Whoever finds this remarkable is the same sort of person that would be astonished to discover that fully *half* the population is below the median IQ.


4 posted on 10/31/2010 1:20:34 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Trust in God, but row away from the rocks!)
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To: EDINVA

What do expect from PU? Maddy Not-so-Bright’s organization.


5 posted on 10/31/2010 1:20:53 PM PDT by DarthVader (That which supports Barack Hussein Obama must be sterilized and there are NO exceptions!)
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To: Chet 99

We can only hope. Until the votes are in and counted we won’t feel free to relax just based on our knowledge of the Dem fraud machine. It would feel pretty good to watch Obama be battered down. Wonder how he would spin that into his world view. Still more of the “voters still want the change that brought me into office” or possibly “the voters put these people in the majority as a message that they want them to work with me to get things done.” Obama’s “it’s all about me” spin never ceases to amaze.


6 posted on 10/31/2010 1:21:11 PM PDT by onevoter
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To: Chet 99

I wonder if the folks at Pew Polling might possibly suggest that temperatures will probably dip in the Northern Hemisphere this December.


7 posted on 10/31/2010 1:24:11 PM PDT by RobinOfKingston
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To: Chet 99

Well we know where the Pew Research Center stands. Lets see what happens Tuesday and then we will know which poll to believe. Zogby has already stated he is a dimoKKKRAT so his polls will tilt in that direction.


8 posted on 10/31/2010 1:24:25 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Chet 99

Expect Gallup and Rasmussen also to show tightening in their final polls tomorrow, showing a narrower “enthusiasm gap”.


9 posted on 10/31/2010 1:26:34 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: Chet 99

The PU Foundation, a Madeline Halfright organ.


10 posted on 10/31/2010 1:27:52 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: EDINVA

Duh to this Poll!!!


11 posted on 10/31/2010 1:30:06 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: ExTexasRedhead

I’m sticking with my prediction:

Super majority House
Simple majority Senate


12 posted on 10/31/2010 1:40:06 PM PDT by null and void (We are now in day 648 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: Red Steel
a Madeline Halfright organ

ACK! I got a visual!

13 posted on 10/31/2010 1:41:08 PM PDT by null and void (We are now in day 648 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: EDINVA

considering it’s PU, the only surprise is they didn’t just lie about the results.


14 posted on 10/31/2010 1:42:50 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: Chet 99
I'd have liked to see better numbers than this if we were about to score some crushing victory.

Among all registered voters, preferences are about evenly divided – 44% Democrat, 43% Republican.

This is incredibly disturbing. Among all voters Democrats are still preferred? Our economy is an utter disaster, we have a 9.6% unemployment rate, and most people STILL prefer Democrats?

...has likely voters favoring Republicans over Democrats, 48 percent to 42 percent, when asked who they'll vote for in House races Tuesday.

So we still lead with Likely Voters by 6, but that only means we are going to do reasonably well because the other side is lazy and unmotivated. Further, that is down from the last Pew survey a few weeks ago where we were up 10 among likely voters.

15 posted on 10/31/2010 2:08:46 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Chet 99

Headline: Sun Likely to Rise Tomorrow.


16 posted on 10/31/2010 2:17:11 PM PDT by Mygirlsmom (TEANAMI INCOMING! Jump in or get out of the way)
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To: Longbow1969

We went up in CNN’s and FOX’s polls. The important thing is the big picture, which is very favorable.


17 posted on 10/31/2010 2:26:04 PM PDT by liberlog
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To: Chet 99

Likely Alert


18 posted on 10/31/2010 2:28:11 PM PDT by muleskinner
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To: Longbow1969

I’m also skeptical about the big wave. RCP moved 4 races toward the Dems today, only 1 towards the GOP. Gallup and Rasmussen both show Obama’s approval increasing to the high 40’s.

We’ll all find out in 50 hours. The suspense is killing me.


19 posted on 10/31/2010 2:37:58 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: Chet 99

Laptops need to be on at local Republican headquarters Tues. night...Loggedd on to good ol FR of course. Non FReepers might enjoy some of our moderate middle of the road commenta.......


20 posted on 10/31/2010 2:39:45 PM PDT by rrrod (at home in Medellin Colombia)
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To: nbenyo
RCP moved 4 races toward the Dems today, only 1 towards the GOP

Which 4 races were moved to the Dems? I don't see any real changes on the RCP Senate list.

Gallup and Rasmussen both show Obama’s approval increasing to the high 40’s.

Yeah, this one concerns me. 47% in both polls today and creeping upwards. These 2 polls fluctuate a lot, but I'd have liked to see him moving downwards as we go into election day as maybe some indication of a wave.

21 posted on 10/31/2010 3:09:05 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969

These were the unfavorable rating changes today:
10/31 NC8 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up
10/31 NY19 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up
10/31 NY25 Toss Up »»» Leans Dem
10/31 PA8 Leans GOP »»» Toss Up

This was the favorable one:
10/31 NM1 Leans Dem »»» Toss Up


22 posted on 10/31/2010 3:18:23 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: nbenyo

Thanks. For some reason I thought you were talking Senate seats.

In NC the Dems are doing really well with early voting according to what I’ve read. Apparently 46 percent of ballots cast have come from registered Democrats, while 36 percent are from registered Republicans.

In NY, well, I’m just worried about NY in general considering the top of our ticket is Paladino who has been such an utter disaster he could do us great damage down ballot.

Pennsylvania, ugh. It’s the state that always gets away.

In New Mexico we have a great candidate at the top of the ticket, Susana Martinez, so it may help us a lot generating enthusiasm for our other candidates.


23 posted on 10/31/2010 3:32:42 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: nbenyo

You want to bet they all go GOP?


24 posted on 10/31/2010 6:27:56 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: Longbow1969

Don’t believe the hype...NC is trending Republican with Early Voting, too.

NC Registered Dems - 44.8%, early ballots - 46% (+1.2)
NC Registered Reps - 31.6%, early ballots - 36% (+4.4)
NC Registered Indy - 23.7%, early ballots - 18% (-5.3)

We have the edge compared to registered voters. Gap is +3.2.


25 posted on 10/31/2010 6:52:30 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: fortheDeclaration

“You want to bet they all go GOP?”

I hope you’re right. I’m just trying to keep expectations realistic. I remember 2 years ago how many here were adamant that Obama would be defeated in a landslide.


26 posted on 10/31/2010 7:53:22 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: nbenyo
Well, the polls are telling us these things, not wishful thinking on our part.

Frankly, I don't know many people who were saying McCain would win by a landslide.

We did have a good chance to beat Obama, but McCain sided with Bush on TARP and that finished him.

Expectations now are based on factual data supporting the reality of a GOP tidal wave.

27 posted on 10/31/2010 9:26:51 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (When the wicked beareth rule, the people mourn (Pr.29:2))
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To: Chet 99

Any predicitions for the Senate?


28 posted on 10/31/2010 9:33:50 PM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: fortheDeclaration

The last poll in NY-25 has the Democrat 12 points ahead. This is why it was moved to “Leans Dem”. Even in a good year there will be disappointments.


29 posted on 10/31/2010 10:05:04 PM PDT by nbenyo
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