Skip to comments.CoD surging on Intrade (Vanity)
Posted on 11/02/2010 10:05:34 AM PDT by library user
A few hours ago Christine was trading @ $7 / share on intrade. Now she's up to $15 / share. Biggest jump (more than 100%) on any political race/outcome on intrade today, thus far.
Other Senators,and the new Republican Congress wont be seated until 2011. Only Christine and one or 2 others could participate in the lame duck session that takes place before the end of 2010.
If Christine wins then Christine will stop the democrats Amnesty for illegals and other horrors the socialist vermin , the democrats, plan to unleash upon America during the Lame Duck session.
Now we know why the media has thrown the kitchen sink at Christine.
Think she’s gonna pull it off. I really, really do.
DISCLAIMER: I own no Cod shares. :O)
I am not the only one who has been saying that this election is going to be much bigger than anyone thought. Better late than never, just today, Gallup came out with their final enthusiasm gap number: 19%. Biggest by far. 1994 was a 9% gap. This is going to be HUGH and very series!
Remember this — Christine was WAY BEHIND Mike Castle just the day before the primaries. She thumped him the next day.
Carl Paladino was way behind Ric Lazio just the day before the primaries in NY. He won by a whopping 26%.
Scott Brown was down by 9 percent behind Martha Coakley the day before the Massachusetts Senate elections. He won 52% to 48%.
In 2004, the EXIT POLLS on the eve of the elections had John Kerry beating Dubya.
LESSON: IGNORE THE POLLS AND VOTE !!
One of those 2 others would be Marco Rubio, if I’m not mistaken. LeMieux is a Crist appointee and would be replaced immediately, if memory serves me correct.
I nearly bought some this morning. It’s tough to put my money where my hope is.
But she’s a Witch. /s
The Entire DE US Senate race has been beyound wierd! I just don’y know WHAT to think. Anyone here have any thoughts concerning this?
“Think shes gonna pull it off. I really, really do.”
Can’t say I’m quite that optimistic. I would be tickled 15 shades of pink if she does win, and I do think it will be really close.
If she wins, we’ll have to stop calling this a tsunami. An “extinction event” would be more accurate.
The left will be stuned.
This is hugh and series. It will set off their beebers
Let me add my own observations.
In the latest NYC Mayoral elections (2009), everyone thought Bloomberg would romp over Bill Thompson. After all, Bloomberg outspent Thompson 5 to 1 and the polls the day prior to elections were showing at least Bloomberg by 20%.
Final tally : Bloomberg 50.7%, Thompson 46.3% ( a margin of just 4.4% ).
These polls are WAYYYY OFF.
It seems complicated to fund an intrade account. They want the following:
1). A scanned photo of your driver’s license
2). Scanned photos of both the front and back of your credit card.
3). A scanned photo of a recent utility bill
All sent to them via unsecure email.
Just seems risky.
Far more risky than betting CoD will win, that’s for sure!
Also, Murray in WA is going up, which seems contrary to the numbers on the ground. Makes me wonder if Intrade speculators are really just guessing that fraud in King County will be huge. I truly think the cheating will only work if Rossi isn't up by three or more.
Beyond that they can't pull it off.
Also, I am a little surprised that Boxer's numbers at Intrade are so high. Around 90. That race seems like it could really go either way depending on today's turnout.
Watching CoD’s 30-minute ad now. A beautifully arranged video message.
I sure do wish she’d had a longer time after the primary, so people could have more time to come to appreciate her. She’d be a great Senator.
It may reach sporkweasel proportions.
I think most independents and reasonable democrats would be embarrassed to tell a pollster that they are voting for Christine O'Donnell. To admit that you voted for or supported Christina O'Donnell is the functional equivalent of committing social suicide in a place like Delaware. So they tell the pollsters they are voting for the bearded Marxist and then when they are secured in the booth, they pull the lever for O'Donnell.
I predicted that Delaware would be the Democrats' Waterloo. If a pro-life conservative can win in Delaware, they can win Any-ware.
A 30-minute ad, or 30 seconds? Regardless, it would be wonderful to see her elected to office.
“But shes a Witch. /s”
Yes, I know. All the conservative women running this year are either witches, whores, or adulteresses.
But let’s all remember, the conservatives are the misogynists, right?
When Hilary ran; when Pelosi, and Boxer run; when Geraldine Ferraro was a VP candidate way back when -
what was the Republican argument? Did we or do we accuse these women of witchcraft, harlotry, adultery?
The Left’s insults tell a lot about their real mindset.
5,175 - 44% - from Democrats.
4,458 - 38% - from Republicans.
2,017 - 18% - from independents.
Can any number crunchers out there make anything out of this info?
Yea that is kind of strange. I don’t like it either.
This is actually pretty encouraging, if national trends of Indies switching to the GOP hold in DE.
The optimistic scenario I had was 40D / 37R
for a +3 D. That was based on the generic +15.
Delaware is 47D/29R
So, this is -3 for the Dems, +9 for the Republicans, for a total of +12. I believe that the poll that had Christine down by 10 was very close to this. I think that was 43 / 37.
Rush asking right now, “Why are they [Dems] spending so much time in DE”?
I stand corrected.
Wishful thinking, I suppose.
I think we will zot them good (40-60 seats) . . but sporkweasel proportions require a net gain of 70 seats or more!
If you live in Deleware and you want to Send a package to Washington, send it COD, otherwise you’ll have to pay for it later.
C’mon, Delaware... don’t put that bald-headed weasel in the Senate. Do the right thing and elect Christine O’Donnell.
No we would NEVER do that!
hahahahaha I love the old timers around here
Scott Brown led by double digits the day before election and had been ahead for nearly two weeks before.
Bush led Kerry by nearly 2 points in final poll tally from Real Clear Politics:
Lazio and Paladino were about even in final polls in their race...some had lazio up a point or so and some had Paladino up a bit. Paladino had surged from way behind over a week earlier.
Christine O'Donnell was in fact slightly ahead of Castle right before the election and had surged late as well but the final polls
I sure hope Christine actually does beat the polls and they are way off this time, nothing would make me happier. I have studied polls over and over since Harry met Dewey and very few have been off by large measures and in recent history they have been reasonably reflective. This idea that polls are always way off is a myth. FReepers...myself included...lol...never believed polls that don't got their way but consider gospel those that do. And yep..like I said...I've done it too but 95% of the time the polls..especially if many have been done on a big race...will be close to the vote.
Hope tonight is an exception, it could be...given the swell.
I wouldn’t say that. I think Christine is the better candidate. All that weird stuff that the left likes to talk about has nothing to do at all with what Christine would do as Senator. Christine said over and over about how Chris Coons would make your life worse if he was a Senator, and they just insulted her. Because they can’t believe that anyone could ever believe that the “wall of separation” isn’t in the constitution, or whatever else. Everyone on tv thinks that’s so funny. But normal people really don’t, and talking about it is not a good replacement for making a case why you’d be a better Senator, or why Christine would be worse.
If I’m following you correctly, this translates to a final tally of 55% Coons 45% O’Donnell ?
Really? Is there some Florida law that prevents the popularly elected senator from replacing the appointed senator?
Of course, those other three are the ones that really matter, since they are held by Dems and Rubio’s seat is held by a Republican.
Yep. People will never admit to voting for someone that they weren't "supposed" to vote for.
In 1972 there were news anchors who were surprised that Nixon won because everyone they knew was voting for McGovern. The reality was that Nixon got over 58% of the vote in New York state and even though McGovern won Manhatten it wasn't by much.
Last week's attempted smear of O'Donnell really backfired and there are probably a lot of upper-middle class suburban women who are going to vote accordingly. I'm also betting that there were a bunch of pseudo-intellectual liberals up there who went online last week and discovered that the phrase "separation of church and state" really isn't in the Constitution or Bill of Rights.
The Independents are crucial to an O’Donnell win, that’s for sure. Looks like she needs 70%+ of the Indy vote.
“No we would NEVER do that!”
I am not talking about satire or lampooning by the rabble of our great nation. That can’t even be controlled.
I am talking about serious campaign efforts.
O’Donnell was seriously accused of witchcraft. Haley and O’Donnell were both accused of having some sort of sex when they were single. Whitman was called a “whore,” by Jerry Brown’s wife, who, on tape, agreed with her. The President of NOW in California then on record agreed, yes, she is a whore.
Poll Date Sample Coons (D) O'Donnell (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/14 - 10/27 — 53.0 39.0 Coons +14.0
Monmouth University 10/25 - 10/27 1171 LV 51 41 Coons +10
Fairleigh Dickinson 10/20 - 10/26 797 LV 57 36 Coons +21
Rasmussen Reports 10/14 - 10/14 500 LV 51 40 Coons +11
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/12 2355 LV 54 33 Coons +21
CNN/Time 10/8 - 10/12 834 LV 57 38 Coons +19
Magellan Strategies (R) 10/10 - 10/10 928 LV 54 36 Coons +18
Monmouth University 10/8 - 10/11 790 LV 57 38 Coons +19
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen 10/9 - 10/9 1000 LV 54 38 Coons +16
Fairleigh Dickinson 9/27 - 10/3 801 LV 53 36 Coons +17
CNN/Time 9/17 - 9/21 703 LV 55 39 Coons +16
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen 9/18 - 9/18 1000 LV 54 39 Coons +15
Rasmussen Reports 9/15 - 9/15 500 LV 53 42 Coons +11
If Rove had not trashed her ..I think she could have won...Blame the GOP establishment...If the wave is big enough she may get in....these are really blue states...
“The Entire DE US Senate race has been beyound wierd! I just dony know WHAT to think. Anyone here have any thoughts concerning this?”
Something must be up in Delaware. Joe “Bite Me” and Zero have made numerous trips to campaign for the bearded Marxist. Why make so many trips if it’s a blowout?
She is the one person I want dragged over the finish line tonight.
It’s +12 over registered voters in DE.
The poll with Christine down by 10 was +12.
That was the better of the 2 polls. We don’t know if election day results will track with absentees, we don’t know if the polls are right (this one gave Christine the advantage with Indies, but only 71% R, the other one gave 76% R)
The action on the ground is all Christine, if that’s any indication. Her rally was 1,000+ (some might’ve expected Palin, to undersell that rally) The Biden / Coons rally was 200 at most.
In terms of facebook, which might turn out to be a very good enthusiasm gauge, Christine has always had the lead in number of fans, but over the last weeks, days, even hours, Christine is accelerating way past Coons on that measure.
Since midnight, Christine has gotten 201 “likes” and Coons has got 18.
So, on measures of intensity which can drive turnout, Christine certainly seems to have the more passionate supporters.
I would say the final poll numbers will look better than that. Support for COD has definitely surged in the past 2 weeks.
I thought about learning how to use intrade weeks ago. I felt it just wouldn’t be right to do that, it wouldn’t help Christine.