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Exit Polls: the surprise in Delaware (Sorry, trolls: Mike Castle probably would've lost to Coons)
CNN ^ | 11/2/2010 | Rebecca Sinderbrand

Posted on 11/03/2010 11:31:04 AM PDT by Qbert

(CNN) – The thing about Delaware is: it's no Kentucky. The Tea Party's first Senate loss of the night may be no big surprise - the only question heading into tonight's been how big a victory margin Chris Coons would capture over Christine O'Donnell. But the exit polls lay out the political and demographic roadblocks facing any Tea Party favorite here.

[Snip]

If GOP voters are feeling any buyer's remorse, they may take some solace in one surprising stat: despite pre-election polls that showed longtime Republican Rep. Mike Castle handily beating Coons in a hypothetical matchup, the voters who turned out today said they would still probably have sent Coons to Washington over Castle, backing him 44-43 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Delaware
KEYWORDS: castle; chriscoons; christineodonnell; de; mikecastle; odonnell; teaparty
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To: SoftwareEngineer
O’Donnell sucked! Plain and simple... No more free passes.. call it like it is..

People forget how intensely they defend "our" side during the campaigns. Later, we look back at some of these folks and realize we were caught up in the us-vs.-them stuff.

How many here recall how we were "starting to warm to McCain" election week in 2008?

When people have some distance from this election, they'll start calling 'em like they see 'em, as you have. We must be patient with them until them, they're still emotionally attached. ;)

81 posted on 11/03/2010 2:07:32 PM PDT by Darkwolf377 ( Mm, your tears are so yummy and sweet!Oh, the tears of unfathomable sadness! Mm-yummy! --E. Cartman)
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To: mrsmith

It was a republican primary. Independents didn’t vote in the republican primary. Castle couldn’t win the majority of the people willing to come out for the republican primary.

I don’t know why. I know that conservatives were highly motivated to vote for O’Donnell. I don’t know if the moderate/liberal republicans just assumed Castle would win, or if they didn’t really care, or what.


82 posted on 11/03/2010 2:10:06 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: mrsmith
He couldn't bring 'moderates' to the polls in the primary.

Moderates do not vote in primaries.

Moderates, by definition, are not "into politics", do not follow primary races closely, etc.

Primary races are for the most politically engaged voters, and those voters are rarely neutral or moderate.

83 posted on 11/03/2010 2:14:16 PM PDT by wideawake
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To: wideawake
Since we lost Nevada, California & apparently Colorado it's a moot point but I think a GOP-controlled Senate with enough moderates to swing things to the Dems -- Lindsey Graham by himself would have been able to do it -- would actually be worse than if we had control.

Now, we have no choice but to fight & Dems will have it harder to find "bipartisanship" for the garbage they hope to enact which will draw the clear line that we need.

84 posted on 11/03/2010 2:18:56 PM PDT by Tribune7 (The Democrat Party is not a political organization but a religious cult.)
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To: Darkwolf377
Christine O'Donnell is incompatible with the kind of aggressive, tough-minded representation you want.

But she's far more compatible than Mike Castle would be who would actually collaborate with the enemy.

Patty Murray -- who does not collaborate with us at all and whom I think Christine is much smarter than -- is very useful to the Dems. Same thing with regard to comparative intellect could be said about Bob Casey Jr. & Joe Biden.

At this point, I'm much rather have a fighter than a thinker and say what you want Christine is a fighter.

85 posted on 11/03/2010 2:25:09 PM PDT by Tribune7 (The Democrat Party is not a political organization but a religious cult.)
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To: wideawake

Yes, people do vote in primaries for the candidates they want- and against the ones they don’t.

Conservatives usually have an advantage in R primaries,but it’s a very small advantage in Del. where the electorate is so liberal right?
An easy one to overcome for a viable candidate- in a healthy system.

The Delaware Republican Party nominated a candidate they couldn’t win with because they couldn’t nominate one they could win with- and that’s sick.


86 posted on 11/03/2010 2:28:25 PM PDT by mrsmith
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To: CharlesWayneCT

Well, I think you get what I’m saying.

If there’s a turtle on a fence post it didn’t get there by itself.

Castle should have had no problem beating O’Donnell with his money and influence.


87 posted on 11/03/2010 2:36:05 PM PDT by mrsmith
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To: CharlesWayneCT

” Toomey definitely spoke as it O’Donnell made HIS life a lot harder”

Did he? I never heard that from him or his campaign, though I didn’t follow that race closely. I heard it plenty from the media but they always have a meme going.


88 posted on 11/03/2010 2:41:41 PM PDT by mrsmith
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To: radpolis

The people who voted for COD in the primary knew all about her past Senate runs. The Delaware GOP had used her as cannon fodder against Biden before, so it was no surprise about her political past. Those who claim she wasn’t vetted well by the party should realize she had that prior approval to run and ran this time without their approval or ‘re-vetting’. The machine candidate [Castle] had just lost it finally with the more conservative base and they threw him out without worrying too much about who would win eventually. The principle was more important to us than D or R. I’d still vote the same way if I knew what the outcome would be.


89 posted on 11/03/2010 2:57:20 PM PDT by Hartlyboy
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To: Longbow1969

No, actually caring too much about whether a candidate can win isn’t a good idea.

Pick who you prefer. That’s how you do it.


90 posted on 11/03/2010 3:12:13 PM PDT by truthfreedom
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To: kevao

To my mind, the definition of a conservative is someone who believes in ideas that are based on experience. They are tried, tested and true as opposed to the Romantic utopian fantasies of the academics and idealists.


91 posted on 11/03/2010 3:26:24 PM PDT by ari-freedom (Ding dong the Pelosi is gone!)
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To: kidd

I think Castle would have won in the end. I regret that he didn’t run as a write-in candidate. He would have either won the election, or helped swing it to O’Donnell.

I’m sorry, but after watch Christine O’Donnell over the last few weeks, I don’t find her appealing as a leader, nor did the voters of Delaware.

My guess is she will end up on CNN as a prime time host.


92 posted on 11/03/2010 3:26:49 PM PDT by FloridaSunrise
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To: wideawake
O'Donnell began 20 points behind, was given $4 million to waste, and still ended up 20 points behind

And I gave her my share of that $4il freely, and she is welcome to it.

93 posted on 11/03/2010 3:32:38 PM PDT by backwoods-engineer
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To: Callahan
I'm sick of having to defend un-vetted candidates on issues of basic competence. It was so disappointing when Palin made it easy for the media to turn her into a punchline.

Palin is VERY competent, and if you care anything about the Constitution and conservative values, you will support her when she wins the primary in 2012. However, I suspect that you and dozens here on FR will dog Palin to no end.

94 posted on 11/03/2010 3:36:00 PM PDT by backwoods-engineer
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To: dfwgator; MrShoop

“Reagan was also the successful two-term governor of the most populous state in the nation.”

And what was Reagan before he became Governor?...

An actor. With even less political-related experience than O’Donnell had.


95 posted on 11/03/2010 3:53:22 PM PDT by Qbert
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To: Qbert

Could Christine O’Donnell have pulled off writing and delivering probably the greatest political speech of our era in, “A Time For Choosing”?


96 posted on 11/03/2010 4:21:53 PM PDT by dfwgator (Texas Rangers -Thanks for a great season.)
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To: ari-freedom

“Experience? Do tea party conservatives still believe in that anymore?”

Experience in running things is important if you are in the executive branch. But does it really matter in Congress? Renee Ellmers beat Etheridge in NC...Ellmers is a nurse. Is that an awful profession for a politician? Why isn’t everybody harping on her??

I think she’s going to do a great job btw- and will be more respected than most of the “experienced” Dems by her constituents.


97 posted on 11/03/2010 4:22:30 PM PDT by Qbert
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To: MissesBush
And with a one point differential in this case, no one can really claim to know what the result would have been with Castle as the candidate, particularly in the absence of a Castle campaign which would have changed the outcome to be sure.

That's my understanding.

That one percent difference was based on voters' reaction to O'Donnell. It's difficult if not impossible for people to put aside what they actually heard and saw and felt and answer a question based on what didn't happen.

The fact that the exit poll was so close months after Castle dropped out of the picture, suggests that he could possibly have pulled out a victory if he'd won the primary.

98 posted on 11/03/2010 4:30:56 PM PDT by x
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To: Qbert

He was president of the Screen Actors Guild before he was Gov. He was also ~55 at the time.


99 posted on 11/03/2010 4:35:20 PM PDT by Wayne07
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To: dfwgator

“Could Christine O’Donnell have pulled off writing and delivering probably the greatest political speech of our era in, “A Time For Choosing”?”

What does that have to do with experience? Any actor is likely to be a better orator than the average citizen. And (while I agree that the speech was brilliant) just days after he gave it...Goldwater got trounced.

And the reality is- if you read your history- most of the beltway and establishment types thought Reagan was dim-witted, an “amiable dunce”, etc. Any pejorative that you cast at O’Donnell could’ve easily been directed at Reagan in his life.

But true Conservatives knew better.


100 posted on 11/03/2010 4:38:31 PM PDT by Qbert
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