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The Most Endangered Senate Seats in 2012
Pajamas Media ^ | November 9, 2010 | Adam Graham

Posted on 11/09/2010 5:50:39 AM PST by Kaslin

Democrats have many more seats to defend (23-10), but several GOP moderates may be exposed to primary challenges.

The 2010 election campaign is over, but 2012 is nearly upon us. Within weeks, we will know the candidates for president, and within months, preparations will begin for the 2012 Senate races. Which Senate seats are likely to be in play? Some of this will depend on how the next Congress shakes out, as well as what retirements occur, but several senators are already in danger.

Republican in danger of general election loss:

Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) shocked the political world by winning the election to replace Ted Kennedy. He immediately became the most vulnerable incumbent up for re-election in 2012. Brown has not pleased conservatives with his votes for bills like the financial reform package, but he may convince voters he’s been the independent voice he promised he’d be when they elected him to the Senate. He is strong on fund-raising, with $6 million on hand. However, Democrats have a wide array of potential candidates to hurl at Brown.

Republicans in danger of a primary or convention defeat:

Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) has served six terms and is at risk of a Tea Party challenge. Senator Lugar has made a career of being praised by Democrats, notably President Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign. Lugar could face a strong challenge from Representative-elect Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), who finished second to Senator Dan Coats in the Republican Senate primary.

Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) also has served six terms and is also at risk of a Tea Party challenge. He does have an 89% career ACU rating, which makes him far more conservative than Lugar. However, the anti-establishment undercurrent in Utah led to the ouster of Senator Bob Bennett at the state Republican Party convention last summer. That said, Hatch has done less to rile conservatives than Bennett or Lugar. He will likely hang on to his seat unless he is opposed by rising star Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT).

Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) faces major discontent from Republicans after backing President Obama’s stimulus and supporting the Senate Finance Committee’s health care bill. A Public Policy Polling survey in September showed 63% of Maine Republicans wanted to dump Snowe, but no apparent challengers have the gravitas to win the general election. After Delaware U.S. Senate candidate Christie O’Donnell’s loss, the hunger for an “anybody but Snowe” campaign may dampen.

Senator John Ensign (R-NV) has to be considered severely endangered due to a scandal surrounding an extramarital affair. Unlike the prostitution scandal involving re-elected Senator David Vitter (R-LA), Ensign’s scandal may not be easily dismissed due to the payment of $96,000 that many allege to be hush money. Nevada Republicans showed their distaste for politicians with soap opera-like family lives when they tossed out Governor Jim Gibbons (R-NV) in the Republican primary this year. Ensign is likewise vulnerable to a defeat in the primary. If he somehow makes it past the Republican primary, he’ll become a top Democratic target in the fall.

Democrats in danger of general election defeat:

Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has to be considered vulnerable after the Republican wave swept the GOP into the governor’s mansion. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), as a member of the House leadership, could raise serious funds to challenge the two-term Democrat.

A poll conducted for the Daily Kos in August showed Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) with a 40% approval rating. Not great numbers for a senator running for re-election in a swing state full of strong candidates, such as former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Representative Todd Akin (R-MO).

Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) narrowly defeated former Senator Conrad Burns with 49% in 2006. While Barack Obama made Montana close with three campaign stops in 2008, the state went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004, and that may make Tester’s ObamaCare vote a big issue. The state mood may be shifting against Democrats, as Republicans captured the state House. Six-term Congressman Denny Rehberg (R-MT) has been discussed as a potential challenger.

After his vote for ObamaCare, Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) was famously booed out of a pizza place in Nebraska. This gives an idea of how far the once-popular governor has fallen. Nelson’s support clinched the passage of ObamaCare, which is an anathema in Nebraska. Barring the mother of all Democratic wave years in 2012, Nelson is finished and may opt to retire. Possible challengers include Governor Dave Heineman and state Attorney General Jon Bruning.

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) came into office on the strength of the Democratic wave of 2006 and the unpopularity of incumbent Senator Mike DeWine. However, a PPP poll this year showed Brown with a 32% approval rating. Incoming Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor could be a good challenger, provided Governor-elect John Kasich is popular with Ohio voters.

Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) ran as a strong pro-life Democrat, but backed ObamaCare and has been a reliable Democratic vote. A PPP poll this year showed Casey with a 31% approval rating. This makes him a prime target for any of the state’s congressmen.

Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), a former Republican, rode a Democratic wave to a narrow victory in 2006, but PPP found Webb trailing former Senator George Allen (R-VA) in a rematch.

Democrats in danger, if an unlikely candidate runs:

A challenge from former Governor Jeb Bush could endanger Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL).

Governor Linda Lingle passed on a challenge to state political institution Senator Daniel Inouye, but may consider a challenge to the lackluster and beatable Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HA).

Endangered independent:

Polls have shown Senator Joseph Lieberman’s (I-CT) popularity waning. Lieberman’s actions in opposing the public option on health care, but eventually supporting the final bill, have antagonized both the left and right. This leaves him in a position where re-election is highly unlikely. Look for this seat to shift to the Democrats.

Possible retirement:

After the defeat of Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) and the retirement of Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) remains the last Democrat in North Dakota’s formerly all-Democrat delegation. The North Dakota political dynamic that allowed Democrats to represent this solidly red state in Congress since 1986 may have broken down with the passage of ObamaCare. Don’t be surprised if Conrad, like Dorgan, decides to retire, which will open the seat for one of the state’s ambitious statewide officeholders.

The bottom line? Both parties have worries, but Democrats have more of them, as they hold 23 of the 33 seats up in 2012.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Connecticut; US: Florida; US: Indiana; US: Maine; US: Massachusetts; US: Michigan; US: Missouri; US: Montana; US: Nevada; US: North Dakota; US: Utah
KEYWORDS: 2012; dangerousdeb; senate2012; stabacow; stabenow
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1 posted on 11/09/2010 5:50:43 AM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Hmm....50% of 33 could put us at +6.

If this were reinforced with a few RINO replacements (2) it could be HUGE!


2 posted on 11/09/2010 5:55:03 AM PST by G Larry (When you're "RIGHT" you don't look for ways to compromise!)
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To: Kaslin

Those are all good selections for another line of work.


3 posted on 11/09/2010 5:56:30 AM PST by Rappini ("Pro deo et Patria.)
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To: Kaslin

I say let’s kick Lindsey Graham out of office first! But Olympia Snowe and Orrin Hatch will be in the air before he hits the sidewalk!


4 posted on 11/09/2010 5:56:44 AM PST by Savage Beast ("You can, in fact must, shout 'fire' in a crowded theatre. It just has to be the truth." J. Goldberg)
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To: Kaslin

One should remember, two years ago, people thought that DemocRATS would make gains this year.


5 posted on 11/09/2010 5:57:45 AM PST by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit.)
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To: Kaslin

Kay Bailey Hutchison hopefully will/step aside/disappear/ retire in 2012. Michael Williams will make a great Senator if we can get him elected.

JMO...


6 posted on 11/09/2010 5:58:12 AM PST by Le Chien Rouge
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To: Kaslin
Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has to be considered vulnerable after the Republican wave swept the GOP into the governor’s mansion. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), as a member of the House leadership, could raise serious funds to challenge the two-term Democrat.

Works for me. I like McCotter.

Actually, anyone replacing "Dangerous Deb" (I'm looking for the picture, now) would suit me just fine.

7 posted on 11/09/2010 5:58:22 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: Kaslin

Please Dear Lord, help to defeat Bob Casey Jr. in 2012.


8 posted on 11/09/2010 5:59:56 AM PST by airborne (Why is it we won't allow the Bible in school, but we will in prison? Think about it.)
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To: Kaslin
Here it is:

Michigan's jr senator. "Dangerous Debbie"

9 posted on 11/09/2010 6:01:01 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: Kaslin; Clintonfatigued; justiceseeker93; MamaDearest; GOP_Lady; Bitsy; seekthetruth; ...

Start our campaigns now. Organize and start the lists of RATs and RINOs to be voted out. Let these Ruling Class Elitist politicians know that their every vote will be watched and documented for the upcoming 2012 campaign.

Voter fraud has got to become a priority. Investigate everything the RATs did last week, gather evidence, and demand prosecution by the new House.

Organize and educate Conservatives/Tea Party members to be poll watchers. Teach them how to legally document all suspicious activity and have attorneys available to help. Establish a national hotline where we can report voter fraud the minute it is suspected.

Another priority is ensuring that there is no suppression of our military ballots by any state.


10 posted on 11/09/2010 6:02:13 AM PST by ExTexasRedhead
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To: Kaslin

I get the article’s point but they’re forgetting one important thing, the RNC/RINO establishment will go to the mat for people like Snowe, Hatch etc. They’re more against the Tea Party than they’re against the Democrats. As usual the Tea Party will have an uphill battle fighting a two front war against progressives and their own in the RNC.


11 posted on 11/09/2010 6:02:22 AM PST by YankeeReb
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To: Kaslin

Ping for later


12 posted on 11/09/2010 6:02:24 AM PST by Batman11 (Sarah Palin: "Illegal immigrants are called illegal for a reason!")
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To: G Larry

i didnt see WI mentioned but i think it should be
Herb Kohl may retire and considering that WI went pretty solidly for Rs this year it should at least be a competitive seat. I dont live in WI so i dont know who a good R would be to challenge him but i would think it would also be a seat “in play”


13 posted on 11/09/2010 6:03:39 AM PST by DM1
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To: Kaslin

Right now, Party is not and issue. The Parties have been set for the next 18 months. Everyone needs to be looking at their own state to make sure your representatives are the kind of people you want and if they are responsive to the needs of Conservatives. If not, it’s time to start looking for good candidates. If you are satisfied, start spending more time communicating with them. They need your moral support as well as your money to keep them on track. They need to know that you are watching and the money won’t be there if they stray.


14 posted on 11/09/2010 6:03:39 AM PST by Steamburg (The contents of your wallet is the only language Politicians understand.)
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To: Kaslin
Snowe has got to go... I hope Maine stays fired up about her, and Collins has to go too! Unforgivable and hopefully unforgettable!
15 posted on 11/09/2010 6:03:39 AM PST by GizzyGirl
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To: ExTexasRedhead

All good points. Right now, however, the economy is everyone’s #1 concern.


16 posted on 11/09/2010 6:04:22 AM PST by Clintonfatigued (Illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit.)
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To: Kaslin
Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) also has served six terms and is also at risk of a Tea Party challenge.

"Professional" Republicans see this as a negative. I see as the only thing preventing CWII.

17 posted on 11/09/2010 6:05:27 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed, and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Le Chien Rouge

ditto


18 posted on 11/09/2010 6:06:16 AM PST by lonestar
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To: Kaslin

QE2 puts us on an inflationary path without precedent in our country. Republicans and Conservatives need to get ahead of the curve on this one and talk about what monetizing this debt is going to result in so they aren’t blamed.


19 posted on 11/09/2010 6:07:14 AM PST by November 2010
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To: Kaslin

McMahon may be able to win a split 3 way vote in CT?


20 posted on 11/09/2010 6:08:35 AM PST by November 2010
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To: Kaslin

Indiana’s own RINO, Obomba lovin’ Lugar is starting to whip up his 2012 conservative act.

He needs retirement.


21 posted on 11/09/2010 6:09:42 AM PST by dforest
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To: Savage Beast
I say let’s kick Lindsey Graham out of office first! But Olympia Snowe and Orrin Hatch will be in the air before he hits the sidewalk!

Unfortunately Graham isn't up for reelection until 2014. So the people of South Carolina are stuck with him until then. Hopefully they find a conservative to replace him with. Both Olympia Snowe and Orin Hatch are up in 2012

22 posted on 11/09/2010 6:09:47 AM PST by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: GizzyGirl

A year ago i would have said “fat chance” but after this years election up there I’d say it’s a pretty good shot.

Here in MA I don’t hold out much hope for Brown. I’m surrounded by complete retards.


23 posted on 11/09/2010 6:13:33 AM PST by Peter from Rutland
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To: Kaslin
"A poll conducted for the Daily Kos in August showed Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) with a 40% approval rating. Not great numbers for a senator running for re-election in a swing state full of strong candidates, such as former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Representative Todd Akin (R-MO)."

I could heartily support a run by Sarah Steelman here in Missouri. However the name of David Limbaugh who is still a Missouri resident is being floated on the Missouri Forum.

24 posted on 11/09/2010 6:13:40 AM PST by Artemis Webb (I support Nancy Pelosi for Minority Leader!!!)
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To: Kaslin
Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) has served six terms and is at risk of a Tea Party challenge.

It is HIGH TIME for Lugar to be shown the door. He long ago wore out his usefulness.

25 posted on 11/09/2010 6:13:49 AM PST by ScottinVA (The West needs to act NOW to aggressively treat its metastasizing islaminoma!)
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To: airborne
Please Dear Lord, help to defeat Bob Casey Jr. in 2012.

I agree. Hopefully, Conservatives can put a strong candidate in the running that will call Casey out on his votes for health care and such. If they don't, we don't have a chance.

26 posted on 11/09/2010 6:13:49 AM PST by justice14 ("stand up defend or lay down and die")
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To: Kaslin
Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) ran as a strong pro-life Democrat, but backed ObamaCare and has been a reliable Democratic vote. A PPP poll this year showed Casey with a 31% approval rating. This makes him a prime target for any of the state’s congressmen.

Casey is a worthless mushmouth hanging on to the coattails of his dead father.

27 posted on 11/09/2010 6:14:17 AM PST by thethirddegree
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To: GizzyGirl

There was a Maine Tea Party rep on the radio (Howie Carr Show) ~3 months ago. He stated that the TP was already looking at potential YellowSnowe challengers.

I’d rather lose the seat than to send YellowSnowe back for another term. She sucks. Collins is maybe a hair better, not that that says much, but she’s in place until 2014.


28 posted on 11/09/2010 6:14:43 AM PST by GOPsterinMA ("My buns have no seeds." - Cleo McDowell)
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To: Artemis Webb
However the name of David Limbaugh who is still a Missouri resident is being floated on the Missouri Forum.

Now there's an outstanding choice, if he made himself available.

29 posted on 11/09/2010 6:14:56 AM PST by ScottinVA (The West needs to act NOW to aggressively treat its metastasizing islaminoma!)
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To: Kaslin
Jeb Bush missed the boat in 2006 to unseat Bill Nelson.
30 posted on 11/09/2010 6:15:39 AM PST by shove_it (just undo it)
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To: Kaslin

It’s past time to “Retire” this entire group of losers.


31 posted on 11/09/2010 6:15:39 AM PST by Grampa Dave (ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS DESTROYING AMERICA-LOOK AT WHAT IT DID TO THE WHITE HOUSE!)
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To: MaggieCarta
Michigan's jr senator. "Dangerous Debbie"

She ought to be as vulnerable as any of them. Who'd be a good shot to defeat her?

32 posted on 11/09/2010 6:17:43 AM PST by ScottinVA (The West needs to act NOW to aggressively treat its metastasizing islaminoma!)
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To: Peter from Rutland

Brown’s toast. Either Patrick or a Kennedy get that seat in 2012.


33 posted on 11/09/2010 6:18:32 AM PST by GOPsterinMA ("My buns have no seeds." - Cleo McDowell)
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To: Kaslin

Jim "Born Fighting (0bama Loving)" Webb needs to go, too!

34 posted on 11/09/2010 6:20:19 AM PST by ScottinVA (The West needs to act NOW to aggressively treat its metastasizing islaminoma!)
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To: ScottinVA
She ought to be as vulnerable as any of them. Who'd be a good shot to defeat her?

I like Thadeus McCotter or Pete Hoekstra. Candice Miller would be a strong candidate too.

35 posted on 11/09/2010 6:21:41 AM PST by NeoCaveman (680 statehouse seat pickups, that's bigger than '74)
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To: Savage Beast; Kaslin

>>> I say let’s kick Lindsey Graham out of office first!

You can say it but since Graham isn’t up for election until 2014, I’m pretty certain the 2012 election will have to be dealt with first.


36 posted on 11/09/2010 6:25:10 AM PST by tlb
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To: Kaslin

We probably won’t be able to get rid of her and would need to find a good R candidate, but Maria Cantwell (WA state) is up for re-election in 2012, too. She beat Slade Gorton in 2000 (some suggested there was voting fraud).


37 posted on 11/09/2010 6:28:04 AM PST by Seattle Conservative (God Bless and protect our troops)
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To: Seattle Conservative

I think I do remember that and it was certainly voter fraud. It’s impossible for WA to have an honest election


38 posted on 11/09/2010 6:33:20 AM PST by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: Kaslin
"Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) came into office on the strength of the Democratic wave of 2006 and the unpopularity of incumbent Senator Mike DeWine. However, a PPP poll this year showed Brown with a 32% approval rating. Incoming Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor could be a good challenger, provided Governor-elect John Kasich is popular with Ohio voters."

Brown in Ohio has to go in 2012. I would be very, very surprised if he is not the most liberal Senator since 2006.

39 posted on 11/09/2010 6:33:27 AM PST by libs_kma (THEY TALK ABOUT HIM LIKE A DOG BECAUSE HE TREATS THIS COUNTRY LIKE A FIRE HYDRANT)
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To: central_va

“Professional” Republicans see this as a negative. I see as the only thing preventing CWII.

***************************

I agree. CWII (CWIII really), or Soviet style dissolution. The latter may happen anyway, due to the fiscal malfeasance and derangement.

Anyway, the only possible way out is to purge these tapeworms out of the system.


40 posted on 11/09/2010 6:33:27 AM PST by Psalm 144
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To: ScottinVA
She ought to be as vulnerable as any of them. Who'd be a good shot to defeat her?

From my personal point of view, any warm, breathing, male Republican would make a fine replacement for her. Apparently, other voters here are more discriminating.

The article mentioned Thad McCotter. He would be great. I don't know whether he wants to run or not, though...

I thought Jack Hoogendyk did a wonderful job running against Levin (the senior senator from MI). IMHO, Hoogendyk did very well in the debate at the Detroit Economic Club.

But, what do I know...

41 posted on 11/09/2010 6:35:30 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: GOPsterinMA

Not sure a Kennedy will walk into the Dem nomination. One of our illustrious Reps will be redistricted out(maybe two). I’m certain other Dem pols sees this as their time to move up. The only way a Kennedy is put into place to run against Brown is bags of cash dropped on other Dems desks to keep them home


42 posted on 11/09/2010 6:38:30 AM PST by GQuagmire (Hey now!)
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To: ScottinVA

43 posted on 11/09/2010 6:39:15 AM PST by Sybeck1 (Conservative yes, Republican no.)
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To: ExTexasRedhead
Start our campaigns now.

If we learned anything from the last election it should be this: If we throw out an incumbent, then we will get no help from the GOP and will be effectively starting from behind in the general election as regards an organizational effort. That means we must begin preparing for the general election as if the conservative is going to win the primary. It's a big risk, but if things don't pan out there is a puddle of money and energy ready to use elsewhere.

Hence (and as you imply), it is important to identify our preferred alternatives very early by which to help begin that preliminary organizational effort.

44 posted on 11/09/2010 6:41:31 AM PST by Carry_Okie (Grovelnator Schwarzenkaiser, fashionable fascism one charade at a time.)
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To: NeoCaveman
Dick Posthumus would be a good choice to boot Slab-O-cow.
45 posted on 11/09/2010 6:46:22 AM PST by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Kaslin

PS: I promise not to post the Scott Brown Cosmo pinup pic. I’ll just leave it as my screensaver...


46 posted on 11/09/2010 6:47:32 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: MaggieCarta
Actually, anyone replacing "Dangerous Deb" (I'm looking for the picture, now) would suit me just fine.


47 posted on 11/09/2010 6:49:59 AM PST by absolootezer0 (2x divorced, tattooed, pierced, harley hatin, meghan mccain luvin', smoker and pit bull owner..what?)
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To: Beagle8U
Dick Posthumus would be a good choice to boot Slab-O-cow.

Ok.

Oh, I would just love, love, love it if she were gone in 2012.

48 posted on 11/09/2010 6:50:55 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: absolootezer0

Thanks!


49 posted on 11/09/2010 6:53:57 AM PST by MaggieCarta (What are we here for but to provide sport for our neighbors, and to laugh at them in our turn?Austen)
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To: Kaslin
Add John Tester, MT to the list.

He squeaked our a win by accusing his opponent - Conrad Burns - of collusion with Abramahof (sp).

There are ads on the radio against Tester now.

50 posted on 11/09/2010 6:54:05 AM PST by Leo Farnsworth (I'm not really Leo Farnsworth.)
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