Posted on 11/09/2010 5:50:39 AM PST by Kaslin
Democrats have many more seats to defend (23-10), but several GOP moderates may be exposed to primary challenges.
The 2010 election campaign is over, but 2012 is nearly upon us. Within weeks, we will know the candidates for president, and within months, preparations will begin for the 2012 Senate races. Which Senate seats are likely to be in play? Some of this will depend on how the next Congress shakes out, as well as what retirements occur, but several senators are already in danger.
Republican in danger of general election loss:
Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) shocked the political world by winning the election to replace Ted Kennedy. He immediately became the most vulnerable incumbent up for re-election in 2012. Brown has not pleased conservatives with his votes for bills like the financial reform package, but he may convince voters he’s been the independent voice he promised he’d be when they elected him to the Senate. He is strong on fund-raising, with $6 million on hand. However, Democrats have a wide array of potential candidates to hurl at Brown.
Republicans in danger of a primary or convention defeat:
Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) has served six terms and is at risk of a Tea Party challenge. Senator Lugar has made a career of being praised by Democrats, notably President Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign. Lugar could face a strong challenge from Representative-elect Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), who finished second to Senator Dan Coats in the Republican Senate primary.
Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT) also has served six terms and is also at risk of a Tea Party challenge. He does have an 89% career ACU rating, which makes him far more conservative than Lugar. However, the anti-establishment undercurrent in Utah led to the ouster of Senator Bob Bennett at the state Republican Party convention last summer. That said, Hatch has done less to rile conservatives than Bennett or Lugar. He will likely hang on to his seat unless he is opposed by rising star Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT).
Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME) faces major discontent from Republicans after backing President Obama’s stimulus and supporting the Senate Finance Committee’s health care bill. A Public Policy Polling survey in September showed 63% of Maine Republicans wanted to dump Snowe, but no apparent challengers have the gravitas to win the general election. After Delaware U.S. Senate candidate Christie O’Donnell’s loss, the hunger for an “anybody but Snowe” campaign may dampen.
Senator John Ensign (R-NV) has to be considered severely endangered due to a scandal surrounding an extramarital affair. Unlike the prostitution scandal involving re-elected Senator David Vitter (R-LA), Ensign’s scandal may not be easily dismissed due to the payment of $96,000 that many allege to be hush money. Nevada Republicans showed their distaste for politicians with soap opera-like family lives when they tossed out Governor Jim Gibbons (R-NV) in the Republican primary this year. Ensign is likewise vulnerable to a defeat in the primary. If he somehow makes it past the Republican primary, he’ll become a top Democratic target in the fall.
Democrats in danger of general election defeat:
Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has to be considered vulnerable after the Republican wave swept the GOP into the governor’s mansion. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), as a member of the House leadership, could raise serious funds to challenge the two-term Democrat.
A poll conducted for the Daily Kos in August showed Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) with a 40% approval rating. Not great numbers for a senator running for re-election in a swing state full of strong candidates, such as former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Representative Todd Akin (R-MO).
Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) narrowly defeated former Senator Conrad Burns with 49% in 2006. While Barack Obama made Montana close with three campaign stops in 2008, the state went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004, and that may make Tester’s ObamaCare vote a big issue. The state mood may be shifting against Democrats, as Republicans captured the state House. Six-term Congressman Denny Rehberg (R-MT) has been discussed as a potential challenger.
After his vote for ObamaCare, Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) was famously booed out of a pizza place in Nebraska. This gives an idea of how far the once-popular governor has fallen. Nelson’s support clinched the passage of ObamaCare, which is an anathema in Nebraska. Barring the mother of all Democratic wave years in 2012, Nelson is finished and may opt to retire. Possible challengers include Governor Dave Heineman and state Attorney General Jon Bruning.
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) came into office on the strength of the Democratic wave of 2006 and the unpopularity of incumbent Senator Mike DeWine. However, a PPP poll this year showed Brown with a 32% approval rating. Incoming Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor could be a good challenger, provided Governor-elect John Kasich is popular with Ohio voters.
Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) ran as a strong pro-life Democrat, but backed ObamaCare and has been a reliable Democratic vote. A PPP poll this year showed Casey with a 31% approval rating. This makes him a prime target for any of the state’s congressmen.
Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), a former Republican, rode a Democratic wave to a narrow victory in 2006, but PPP found Webb trailing former Senator George Allen (R-VA) in a rematch.
Democrats in danger, if an unlikely candidate runs:
A challenge from former Governor Jeb Bush could endanger Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL).
Governor Linda Lingle passed on a challenge to state political institution Senator Daniel Inouye, but may consider a challenge to the lackluster and beatable Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HA).
Endangered independent:
Polls have shown Senator Joseph Lieberman’s (I-CT) popularity waning. Lieberman’s actions in opposing the public option on health care, but eventually supporting the final bill, have antagonized both the left and right. This leaves him in a position where re-election is highly unlikely. Look for this seat to shift to the Democrats.
Possible retirement:
After the defeat of Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) and the retirement of Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) remains the last Democrat in North Dakota’s formerly all-Democrat delegation. The North Dakota political dynamic that allowed Democrats to represent this solidly red state in Congress since 1986 may have broken down with the passage of ObamaCare. Don’t be surprised if Conrad, like Dorgan, decides to retire, which will open the seat for one of the state’s ambitious statewide officeholders.
The bottom line? Both parties have worries, but Democrats have more of them, as they hold 23 of the 33 seats up in 2012.
From my personal point of view, any warm, breathing, male Republican would make a fine replacement for her. Apparently, other voters here are more discriminating.
The article mentioned Thad McCotter. He would be great. I don't know whether he wants to run or not, though...
I thought Jack Hoogendyk did a wonderful job running against Levin (the senior senator from MI). IMHO, Hoogendyk did very well in the debate at the Detroit Economic Club.
But, what do I know...
Not sure a Kennedy will walk into the Dem nomination. One of our illustrious Reps will be redistricted out(maybe two). I’m certain other Dem pols sees this as their time to move up. The only way a Kennedy is put into place to run against Brown is bags of cash dropped on other Dems desks to keep them home
If we learned anything from the last election it should be this: If we throw out an incumbent, then we will get no help from the GOP and will be effectively starting from behind in the general election as regards an organizational effort. That means we must begin preparing for the general election as if the conservative is going to win the primary. It's a big risk, but if things don't pan out there is a puddle of money and energy ready to use elsewhere.
Hence (and as you imply), it is important to identify our preferred alternatives very early by which to help begin that preliminary organizational effort.
PS: I promise not to post the Scott Brown Cosmo pinup pic. I’ll just leave it as my screensaver...
Ok.
Oh, I would just love, love, love it if she were gone in 2012.
Thanks!
He squeaked our a win by accusing his opponent - Conrad Burns - of collusion with Abramahof (sp).
There are ads on the radio against Tester now.
“One should remember, two years ago, people thought that DemocRATS would make gains this year.”
This article understates the precarious situation of Democrat Senators up in 2012. Tester, Webb and Ben Nelson will not survive. Conrad, McCaskill and Sherrod Brown are unlikely to survive (and I think that Conrad will retire rather than face the state AG). Stabenow, Bill Nelson and Herb Kohl are as likely to lose as win (and I think that Kohl will retire). Menendez, Cantwell, Manchin and Casey are vulnerable. Klobuchar, Bingaman, Gillibrand, Akaka, Whitehouse and Carper are potentially vulnerable. Lieberman and Sanders potentially face three-way contests that may allow the Republican to win (maybe Foley and Dubie can’t get 50%, but they can get 38% in a three-person race). So I count only two safe Democrat Senate seats among the 23 that are up in 2012: Dianne Feinstein’s seat in CA and Ben Cardin’s seat in MD.
On the GOP side, Scott Brown will probably not survive, John Ensign would probably lose if he ran for reelection (but the GOP would have better than even odds of winning the seat should he retire), and Snowe’s seat could go Democrat whether or not Snowe loses the primary. But that’s it: the other 7 GOP-held seats are safely Republican.
So the GOP has an excellent chance of picking up 6-12 net seats in 2012. And 2014 is just as promising for the GOP as 2012, with Democrat seats held by Begich, Landrieu, Hagan, Franken, the two Udalls, Rockefeller (who may retire), Harkin (ditto), Tim Johnson (ditto), Baucus (ditto), Coons, Pryor, Lautenberg (who will likely retire), Levin (ditto), Shaheen, Merkley and Mark Warner all being either gone, vulnerable or potentially vulnerable, while the only vulnerable or potentially vulnerable GOP seat is Collins’s in ME (the other GOP-held seats are located in AL, GA, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX and WY, which won’t be even thinking of voting Democrat again for awhile).
And thanks to GOP victories in state races las Tuesday, giving the party control of redistricting in more multi-seat states than ever before, the House will likely stay Republican until at least 2022.
So if we elect a GOP president in 2012, he should have a GOP House for his entire term and a filibuster-proof Senate during at least 2015 and 2016 (although it would be a challenge to keep a 60+ seat Senate after the 2016 elections).
The momentum and determination to save our country that gave us the huge win last week must be kept with no let up. We are at war for our survival as a free country. We must stay focused, organize even further, identify who must be defeated and go forward with our goals as priority.
Voter fraud has got to be a priority. Thugs and goons must be exposed and neutered. Our Army of patriots must have a strategy and the resources and personnel to go forward to take back our country. We must ensure our children and grandchildren’s futures.
I agree on both counts. Keith Butler was a far better general-election candidate than Bouchard, and Bouchard’s entry into the 2010 gubernatorial primary tipped the nomination from Hoekstra to the less conservative Snyder.
Lugar must go.
I think that it is fairly safe to say that Sarah Steelman would have far better odds of beating McCaskill than would David Limbaugh, and that her voting record would be imperceptably less conservative than Limbaugh.
Amen and amen. In particular, both Alaska and Nevada need our attention now.
Got that right, Scott-o.
We need to pound the poop out of him on his oh-so quiet vote for Obummercare. That and his penchant for hanging his aides out to dry for carrying his guns.
If it is an Allen challenge again, are we up for it? Can’t have any whimping out if he gets nailed with another “makaka” moment.
pulled votes from hoekstra and cox both.. repeat of the joe schwartz primary. too many conservatives running, combined with a large crossover led to the worst rino taking the bid.
MI needs to learn that fielding too many candidates is going to screw us every time.
I like McCotter too, but was disappointed when he supported the GM bailout. While I understand that is a large part of his constituency (probably 99%), it still angers me.
I’ve also heard names mentioned to run against the cow stabenow, such as retired Rep. Pete Hoekstra, and former MI Governor John Engler....should be interesting. I want to see her GONE, and email her almost every day to repeal “healthcare” reform, and plan on the end of her political career.
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