G.M. Offering Price Range Rises to $32 to $33 [IPO]

DealBook NYTimes ^ | 11/15/2010 | MICHAEL J. DE LA MERCED AND NICK BUNKLEY

[SAJ]

Trade it any way you like, m’friend...and my best wishes to you. I won’t be playing, except on the short side.

[dhs12345]

Go Ford!!! I am rooting them over GM and Chrysler and I own a Chrysler.

My fear is that the Feds will continue to throw good money after bad and keep pumping up GM.

Have GM revamped their business to be competitive? Apparently, not.

[balls]

By the way, what’s a trader like you doing in a place like Missouri? (I don’t have anything against MO, it’s just not the best place to rub shoulders with traders!)

[SAJ]

A very good question (and quite clever of you to have asked, btw!)

My father lived his last years of his life in St. Louis County (NOT St. Louis City, look up the history, ok). He was born and raised American, and, if I may say so, arguably THE classic American citizen of 1955.

To answer your question directly: 1) I am not a day-trader, therefore I have little or no advantage to be gained in trading options in/near Chicago, and 2) A gracious G-d willing, I shall be doing my trading in 2012 from outside the US.

While I love the United States, I have lived -- not once but twice -- under a state socialist medical regime. The vaunted UK "National Health (cough) System" almost killed me, by dint of the sheer stupidity born of bureaucracy gone mad, when I was a few days short of 5 years old in 1956.

You may take it upon the VERY best authority that no goobermint, ever again, will have control over my health and health care.

[fight_truth_decay]

I don't trade on IPO’s. This is not my personal recommendation—this is just general knowledge about GM’s IPO with information being reported out there.

An outsider Trading in an IPO with for a quick sale, burns the bridge for their next possible IPO. THIS IS NOT like the dotcom startups IPOing in 1999 for the next big thing.
These companies going the route of the IPO which is not made in comparison are only doing so because they have to— new venture capital is difficult to find, the companies are burning cash and getting financing from the stock market seems the last best solution. When the government has its bulls-eye painted on the backs of ALL business, investors shy away. When living the American Dream is punishable by more taxes and/or more regulation —it's wise to proceed with caution.

[Bratch]

Nearly all the television dramas I've been watching this year use either GM or Chrysler products. Hawaii Five-O showcases a Chevy Camero, for instance, and NCIS-LA uses a Dodge Challenger R/T.

Hollywood is doing their part to drive up the Government Motors stock.

[fight_truth_decay]

Canadian auto journalists pick their cars of the year
by Jeff Glucker (RSS feed) on Nov 1st 2010

AJAC Test Fest Category Winners Announced
Oct 29, 2010

Best New Small Car (under $21K)
Ford Fiesta

Best New Small Car (over $21K)
Chevrolet Cruze

Best New Family Car (under $30K)
Volkswagen Jetta TDI Clean Diesel

Best New Family Car (over $30K)
Buick Regal

Best New Luxury Car (over $50K)
BMW 5 Series Sedan

Best New Prestige Car (over $75K)
Porsche 911 Turbo S

Best New Sports/Performance Car
Cadillac CTS-V Coupe

Best New Minivan
Toyota Sienna

Best New SUV/CUV (under $35K)
Hyundai Tucson

Best New SUV/CUV (under $50K)
Ford Edge

Best New SUV/CUV (over $50K)
Volkswagen Touareg

http://www.autoblog.com/2010/11/01/canadian-auto-journalists-pick-their-cars-of-the-year/

[DManA]

No, not a trader. But options traders need to have an idea of direction. I don’t know how you can come up with any rational idea which way it will go. For one thing the Federal Gov still will own a big block. There are a million ways for them to manipulate the price from selling from their hoard to high officials talking the stock up or down.

I think this one is like playing roulette in an unlicensed casino.

[SAJ]

Regarding flipping IPOs: one can only do so if there is a surplus of buyers. If not, one is in for the long haul.

This turkey rates to be a VERY long haul. And, just btw, companies aren't burning cash at all; they're hoarding it, for the very reason you cited -- goobermint intrusiveness.

Good trading to you!

[SAJ]

You may very well be correct. I’m just going to wait for the options to open (generally a month or so after the IPO, in the case of a ‘name’ stock).

[SAJ]

Actually, options can be VERY profitable to trade w/o any idea at all of direction. The thing to watch is the implied volatility of the options.

If, as seems likely, this IPO attracts a lot of interest (thank you, Mr. Barnum!), the IVs of the oppies will equally likely be skewed higher for at least a while. This will present opportunities in both calendar spreads and diagonals, and to some extent ratio-spreads and ratio-writes.

[DManA]

I’ll take your word for it. Profits to you my friend.

[I cannot think of a name]

The problem I have with IPOs in general is that you are STILL buying part of a company and its future. And that future determines whether your investment goes up or down.

People always point to Google as an example of why IPOs are such a good deal. But I can point to at least ten times that many that went the other way. And I have huge doubts about GM.

They've made money during the past year - but only after receiving every break and forgiveness in the book. Now it's “stand on your own two feet time.” And I don't think the climate in Washington will again support pulling their a$$ out of the fire. If they go down again, it will be for the count.

Before I'd be willing to put a penny on that horse, I'm going to have to see it successfully run on its own for a couple of years.

[fight_truth_decay]

Cisco, for instance, which is wealthy is not hording it[and that is a misleading term] as have been buying up talent from other like competitive companies with enticing higher salaries; however, the ones like GM NEED to go IPO, as explained in why going IPO at these uncertain financial times.. they need the other round of money, with venture capitalist funding stagnent. We cannot paint all companies with such a wide brush stroke.

So why go IPO for the long haul when you can buy it at the next dip and there is always a next dip, sell off and a next dip.....

Short sales are blamed for exacerbating the declining market movements and regulators will tighten rules.

Ever read "Trading with the Enemy" written employee [Nick Maier] of "Hedge funder" Jim Cramer's Wall Street.? Cramer never disputed the manipulation of say Hannafords to sell short..or the book itself for that matter. But Martha Stewart gets jail time for..her probably coached story about some stop-loss order. She should have just said nothing at all and received no jail time. But now I am sidetracked!!

Interesting note: Diwali India

Coal India IPO after November 3 fuelled the Diwali jump after an announcement of lifting some US 'government' curbs on exports of sensitive technology to India

I wonder how some "insiders" in Washington fared on that one? Another story in of itself, that burns me. But again there is always another Martha Stewart to cast into the limelight.

Thanks & Good Luck

[SAJ]

If I were a gambler, I'd put the over/under on GM's IPO price at $24. That's just an indicator of how irrational this mkt is.

At the moment, I have exactly zero share positions. Not trading anything but option spreads, which (depending on the spread, of course) can be largely immune from the nonsense of the day-to-day marketplace.

I learned long ago (and have written quite a bit about the topic) that the retail trader is absolutely at the bottom of the information food chain, and should therefore ignore -- completely -- what the insiders and the 'smart money' are said to be doing at any given time.

[fight_truth_decay]

Thanks for your experienced/seasoned responses.