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Opinion: History Says Mitt's the Man for 2012
AOL News ^ | 11/29/10 | Michael Medved

Posted on 11/30/2010 3:23:19 AM PST by Rome2000

Opinion: History Says Mitt's the Man for 2012

Michael Medved Contributor AOL News (Nov. 29) -- Conventional wisdom says the battle for the GOP nomination in 2012 is wide open and unpredictable, but Republican history suggests that there is an obvious front runner who is nearly certain to represent his party in the presidential race.

For nearly 70 years -- long before most of the current contenders were even born -- GOP leaders and primary voters have displayed a shockingly consistent tendency to pick a candidate whose previous national campaign, whether successful or not, suggested it was "his turn."

This means that with very rare exceptions, Republicans choose a sitting president or vice president or else the runner-up in the previous nomination fight. Consider:

Thomas E. Dewey: Dewey had been runner-up (to Wendell Willkie) at the 1940 convention, and four years later the 42-year-old candidate won an almost unanimous vote for the nomination. He lost to FDR in a surprisingly close race in the midst of World War II. Because of his youth and his previous national campaign, Dewey became the heir apparent four years later, but lost to Harry Truman in one of the epic upsets of American political history.

Richard Nixon: President Dwight Eisenhower's loyal two-term vice president, Nixon got the nomination by acclamation in 1960 and lost a squeaker race to John F. Kennedy. This meant that he ran three times as part of a competitive national ticket before he claimed the nomination again in 1968 and went on to win the presidency.

Ronald Reagan: In 1976, Reagan put up a strong challenge to President Gerald Ford's nomination and so could make the case that the party owed him a shot in 1980 -- when he captured both the nomination and the White House easily.

George H.W. Bush: As runner-up to Reagan in the fight for the presidential nomination in 1980, Bush got the consolation prize of the vice presidency and became the obvious choice for Republicans in 1988.

Bob Dole: The Senate majority leader ran for vice president with Ford in 1976, then was runner-up to Bush in the 1988 primaries; inevitably, he drew the presidential nod in 1996.

George W. Bush: In 2000, after two embattled terms of Bill Clinton, the closest thing to an heir apparent for Republicans was Gov. Bush of Texas, the son of a prior president.

John McCain: Considering the clear GOP pattern, it should have surprised no one that the candidate George W. Bush beat for the 2000 nomination -- Sen. McCain of Arizona -- seized the prize in 2008, despite a good deal of intraparty grumbling about his "maverick" reputation.

Only Two Exceptions

Since the early 1940s, there have only been two exceptions to the Republican instinct to crown the heir apparent. Ohio Sen. Robert Taft, widely acclaimed as "Mr. Republican," sought the nomination against Dewey in 1948 and could easily make the case that it was "his turn" in 1952 -- but he lost the presidential nomination to the peerless war hero, Gen. Eisenhower.

And in 1964, Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona ran a successful insurgent conservative campaign against "the Eastern Establishment" of "country club" Republicans, and went on to lose 44 states to incumbent President Lyndon Johnson. In fact, this one uncharacteristic Republican experiment with a "surprise" nominee worked out so badly that in the last 45 years the GOP has never tried again.

Unlike Republicans, Democrats have nominated several dark-horse candidates in recent years, but with decidedly mixed results. Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, though little known when they began their campaigns, won resounding victories, but not so George McGovern. The senator from the sparsely populated state of South Dakota became the Democratic nominee in 1972 but went on to lose 49 of 50 states (including South Dakota). The one-term governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, emerged as the unexpected nominee in '76 and won a close race for the White House, but became a deeply unpopular one-term president.

Yes, the GOP could select from an array of appealing and promising fresh faces in 2012 -- Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Chris Christie of New Jersey and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana; and Sen. John Thune of, yes, South Dakota.

But the most likely outcome by far would see the GOP reverting to form and selecting this year's well-known heir apparent: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Romney came close to wresting the nomination from McCain two years ago and ran a credible, well-financed national campaign.

Sponsored Links His most serious opposition might come from two other figures who ran national campaigns last time: Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin. But Huckabee's 2008 run, powered by his formidable communications skills, suffered consistently from limited financial resources, and he's made little progress in building his fundraising base.

Palin also inspired millions of Republicans after her selection as the vice presidential nominee, but with a series of rookie gaffes and a polarizing persona, her one experience as a national candidate can hardly qualify as an unmitigated success.

Newt Gingrich is another potential candidate for 2012, but as former House speaker he hardly qualifies as a fresh face, nor has he been around the track as a candidate for national office, so that he lacks the kind of credibility that seems particularly important to Republicans.

Romney remains the safe choice -- last time's runner-up for the nomination, and a mainstream conservative generally acceptable to many tea party insurgents as well as veteran office-holders.

Most of all, the suave and savvy candidate has history on his side. The last two generations prove that Republicans award their nomination to the obvious guy who's next in line.

For 2012, that means Mitt's the man.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 911mosque4romney; alqaeda4romney; backstabbers4romney; dnc4romney; iag4romney; medved; mittfakeendorsement; msm4romney; obama4romney; obamabot4romney; pimpromney; pimpromney4mitt; pimpromneynow; pimpromneyplease; rino4romney; romney; romney2lose; romney4obama; romney4obamacare; romney4soros; romneybackstabbing; romneybigdig; romneycare; romneydeathpanels; romneydirtytricks; romneyfakepoll; romneypushpoll; romneysaboteurs; romneysorosjetblue; romneytaxes; sharia4romney
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1 posted on 11/30/2010 3:23:27 AM PST by Rome2000
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To: Rome2000
Medved hopping on the MYTH train.
2 posted on 11/30/2010 3:24:40 AM PST by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: Rome2000

He’s the only one I wouldn’t vote for.


3 posted on 11/30/2010 3:25:02 AM PST by livius
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To: Rome2000

They’re trying to pick our 2012 candidate again!
Mitt will lose and Obama will Rule and finish The US off!!


4 posted on 11/30/2010 3:25:36 AM PST by timetostand (Ya say ya wanna revolution -- OK!)
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To: Al B.; Lakeshark; onyx; Brices Crossroads; Clyde5445

Medved is a loser.


5 posted on 11/30/2010 3:26:07 AM PST by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: Diogenesis

Get a load of this crap...


6 posted on 11/30/2010 3:27:42 AM PST by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: livius
Medved started out as a red diaper doper baby, working for commies like Dellums.

He calls himself a "conservative" but appears to be just another scam artist like his buddy MYTH ROMNEY.

7 posted on 11/30/2010 3:28:13 AM PST by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: livius

Hopefully, in 2012, Romney will finally be “HISTORY”


8 posted on 11/30/2010 3:28:38 AM PST by Michigan Bowhunter
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To: livius

I wont vote for him or the huckster. Plenty of conservatives out there to pick.


9 posted on 11/30/2010 3:29:38 AM PST by rrrod (at home in Medellin Colombia)
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner
If Medved is going to start agitating for Romney, he had better be prepared to go down in flames as well.

Romney is going to have his Ceausescu moment any day now, sans the firing squad.

He will be jeered derisively though, and will run and hide behind his bodyguards.

10 posted on 11/30/2010 3:33:44 AM PST by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: Rome2000

If it is Mitt we are voting 3rd party. No point in voting for whitey 0bama.


11 posted on 11/30/2010 3:33:50 AM PST by pnh102 (Regarding liberalism, always attribute to malice what you think can be explained by stupidity. - Me)
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To: timetostand
Romney remains the safe choice -- last time's runner-up for the nomination, and a mainstream conservative generally acceptable to many tea party insurgents

Oh yeah Medved?

Name one.

12 posted on 11/30/2010 3:35:32 AM PST by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: Rome2000
a mainstream conservative generally acceptable to many tea party insurgent

NOT!

IMHO, the ONLY acceptable tea party insurgent has a TV show on Sunday's at 9PM on the Discovery Channel! She gets her hands dirty!

Myth wears funny underwear and wants to be god...


13 posted on 11/30/2010 3:35:32 AM PST by WVKayaker (Remember that the faith that moves mountains always carries a pick.)
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To: Rome2000

Gingrich in 2012

“To Save America”


14 posted on 11/30/2010 3:35:50 AM PST by reaganator
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To: Rome2000

Flush Mitt, it’s a stinking turd!


15 posted on 11/30/2010 3:35:56 AM PST by dalereed
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To: WVKayaker

Har!


16 posted on 11/30/2010 3:36:22 AM PST by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: Rome2000

The author seem to forget Reagan’s run
Also Palin can easily be considered the runner up, “her turn” candidate from the last election, not romney or huckabee


17 posted on 11/30/2010 3:38:13 AM PST by 4rcane
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Let’s make this real clear for the Republican insiders who continue to push RINO’s like mittens...........

Mitt Romney is a POS!!! If supporting Obamacare lite in Massachusetts doesn’t disqualify him, his constant pandering just to gain political power should make him DOA.

Pushing Romney is like beating a dead horse; of course, the dead horse has a more pleasing personality than Romney. A more lively one also.


18 posted on 11/30/2010 3:38:43 AM PST by OwatonnaNative
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To: WVKayaker

You don’t need to make fun of someone’s religion when calling him a RINO commie will do.


19 posted on 11/30/2010 3:39:10 AM PST by freeplancer
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To: Rome2000

Here is another history lesson. RINOs LOSE to charismatic Democrats.


20 posted on 11/30/2010 3:39:29 AM PST by CDFingers (0bama calls me the enemy, but won't do the same with terrorist.)
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To: Rome2000

Here is another history lesson. RINOs LOSE to charismatic Democrats.


21 posted on 11/30/2010 3:39:29 AM PST by CDFingers (0bama calls me the enemy, but won't do the same with terrorist.)
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To: Rome2000
My nightmare scenario is that Romney and Palin will split the anti-Obama vote (with one of them running as a third party candidate) and Obama will win again.

I think there are a sizable number of “establishment Republicans” who would strongly prefer being the minority opposition to Obama than having to give up control of their party to the “rabble” represented by grassroots conservatives.

I hope my nightmare scenario does not come to pass.

22 posted on 11/30/2010 3:39:59 AM PST by cvq3842 (I don't waste my vote on third party candidates, like RINO Republicans.)
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To: 4rcane

The issue with Palin - will she be a Goldwater or a Reagan. Can she overcome the odds. Everyone was predicting a massive Reagan lost, til the last few weeks of the election


23 posted on 11/30/2010 3:41:05 AM PST by 4rcane
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To: Rome2000

Ick.


24 posted on 11/30/2010 3:42:40 AM PST by steve8714 (Never again should free men be asked to fight for those without the courage to turn them loose.)
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To: Rome2000

Mitt’s history. It is obvious to all but the leftists that the voters want to take our government to the Right.


25 posted on 11/30/2010 3:44:30 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: Rome2000
For 2012, that means Mitt's the man.


26 posted on 11/30/2010 3:45:19 AM PST by COBOL2Java (Obama is the least qualified guy in whatever room he walks into.)
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To: 4rcane
Right, the case could be made for it being "her turn" more logically than it could be for that con artist from Michigan.

Medved dismisses her out of hand, too caught up in the Hollywood scene to even imagine her as the next POTUS.

27 posted on 11/30/2010 3:48:03 AM PST by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: Rome2000

I do think there’s a place for a guy like Romney in a GOP administration. He’d be great over at Treasury, IMHO. But at the top of the ticket? Not my choice at all.


28 posted on 11/30/2010 3:48:56 AM PST by DemforBush (If I ever get back my blue jeans...Lord, how happy could one man be?)
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To: Rome2000

IOW, History says the GOP will blow it in 2012.


29 posted on 11/30/2010 3:49:37 AM PST by Junior_G (Funny how liberals' love affair with Muslims began on 9/11)
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To: Rome2000

If the GOP nominates another rich old white man to slap down a black president many underdog voters will slap back on that point alone. If the GOP nominates a Hispanic along the lines of Marc Rubio then Barky can’t win. A woman candidate has a chance. The political timing isn’t right for another rich old white man that strangely wants it too bad.


30 posted on 11/30/2010 3:50:25 AM PST by Reeses
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To: Rome2000

Does this Medved guy actually have an audience?


31 posted on 11/30/2010 3:51:24 AM PST by Godebert
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To: DemforBush
Its insane that its even being floated out there that he not only has a chance, but is the favorite to get the nomination.

This has to be addressed,and soon.

Somebody on the right has got to step up and smack this phony SOB good.

32 posted on 11/30/2010 3:52:14 AM PST by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: Rome2000

Heck, he’s been riding that train for years.


33 posted on 11/30/2010 3:53:16 AM PST by Fresh Wind
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To: Rome2000

Ummm, the Huckster was the runner up, not Mitty. (Not that I’d vote for either.)

By the article’s own definitions, Mitt’s toast.

But.

You could read from the article how Sarah fits the described mold.

Just saying.


34 posted on 11/30/2010 3:53:44 AM PST by ziravan
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To: dalereed

As a friend of mine says, “You can’t polish a turd.”


35 posted on 11/30/2010 3:54:19 AM PST by A2J (Buck Religion)
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To: freeplancer
I can easily make fun of a CULT (I do not accept Mormonism as anything more!) that has secret hidden ceremonies and preaches that any man (but not woman) can become (a) god. Jesus Christ is in their name, but apparently not in their hearts. According to them, Jesus failed and Joe Smith takes His place...

Mormons prey on the gullible with their social welfare and organized lies. They present a nice picture, but are little different from the muzzies with their attitudes about women. They just don't make the girls wear burkhas. Women are only vessels to make babies for a Mormon man to get a jump start on his own kingdom.

Plus, that some special powers can be attributed to underwear is about on par with Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny!


36 posted on 11/30/2010 3:56:15 AM PST by WVKayaker (Remember that the faith that moves mountains always carries a pick.)
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To: Rome2000

Mitt is the perfect candidate if we are talking about the Presidency of New England. Outside of New England he’s the perfect asterisk for ‘also ran.’


37 posted on 11/30/2010 3:56:53 AM PST by stevem
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To: Rome2000
...Republican history suggests...

...that the Party will decide whose turn it is to play candidate. Winning is optional.

38 posted on 11/30/2010 3:58:35 AM PST by Fresh Wind
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To: Rome2000
Mitt is not a bad man.

But he has no political convictions to speak of. In fact, he's not really a believer in politics at all.

He looks at government as another venue for his superb intellect and problem-solving skills.

People want abortions? Fine. People don't? Also fine. Health care? Get me the numbers, show me the assets and liabilities, we'll work something out.

He would be a catastrophe were he to be nominated as the GOP candidate for President, because he's not a good liar. When he got up and read his "conservative" lines (gotta do what you gotta do to pass the interview) his transparent phoniness would shine through.

But I don't like running him down as a man. He's a good neighbor in town here, he loves his family, and, at Treasury or the Fed (assuming it continues to exist) he would serve Madame President exceptionally well.

The problem is, he wouldn't care if the lady in question were SLP or HRC.

39 posted on 11/30/2010 4:06:58 AM PST by Jim Noble (It's the tyranny, stupid!)
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To: livius

Mitt’s DOA. Give it up.


40 posted on 11/30/2010 4:07:44 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: Rome2000

I think its going to be Romney. No one else has his organization, skills and talent. Unless someone else makes a good run, history says Romney is the presumptive favorite to beat.


41 posted on 11/30/2010 4:09:11 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Rome2000

Source = AOL...go figure.


42 posted on 11/30/2010 4:10:46 AM PST by chemicalman (The Obama's: Proud members of the Vacation-A-Month Club.)
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To: Rome2000

Will never vote for the Myth.

The whole idea of an annointed - it’s his turn now - process, is a big part of the problem.

I don’t think the cocktail party crowd has read the memo. I know we sent one out earlier this month. Didn’t they read it?

No more!


43 posted on 11/30/2010 4:13:02 AM PST by AFreeBird
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To: cvq3842
My nightmare scenario is that Romney and Palin will split the anti-Obama vote (with one of them running as a third party candidate) and Obama will win again.
Very early in the primary season, one or more of the Republican candidates should call on ALL Republican candidates to take the No Third Party Pledge.

By running in the Republican Primary I hereby pledge not to later run as a third party candidate or as a write-in candidate.

Severely castigate and refuse to debate with those who don't take the pledge.

44 posted on 11/30/2010 4:13:50 AM PST by samtheman
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To: chemicalman

You can’t argue with Republican history. The Party could nominate a fresh face but that’s not likely give its stated preference for the safe choice. In modern times, Eisenhower and Goldwater were the exceptions to that rule.


45 posted on 11/30/2010 4:13:57 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Rome2000
Romney remains the safe choice...

And as the story related the 'safe choice' tended to get creamed in the election. Unless we want another 4 years of Obama then I suggest that in this case the safe choice is the wrong choice.

46 posted on 11/30/2010 4:14:14 AM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: Rome2000

Mitt has a couple of albatrosses around his neck...his flip flopping on abortion and denial that Mass Health isn’t socialized medicine. The latter, by the way, is bankrupting MA. Also Mitt’s a Mormon, which spooks enough people to affect the outcome. If he got the nomination, millions of republicans would stay home or vote for a third party candidate — presumably the tea partiers would nominate someone — and Obama would win. A dem. dream.


47 posted on 11/30/2010 4:14:43 AM PST by hershey
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To: Rome2000

Yes please, by all means choose the safe candidate. That has worked SO well in the past./s

Nominating Romney gaurantees 0bambi a second term. Conservatives will no longer hold their nose and back the Party’s nominee, irrespective of philosophy.


48 posted on 11/30/2010 4:16:22 AM PST by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: Rome2000

“Mittcare” Romney is history, alright. Hope he enjoys a long career lending voice to conservative causes, because he’s not done anything towards following the basic principles. If he did, it was all canceled out by his tyrannical socialist deathcare program that crushed MA citizens under the burden of state’s whims.


49 posted on 11/30/2010 4:16:22 AM PST by Caipirabob ( Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: Non-Sequitur

I would say good luck. You don’t to convince committed conservatives - you’re going to have to convince Republican voters who are not Freepers. They take a different view of it from us on here.


50 posted on 11/30/2010 4:18:14 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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