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S.Korea Begins Maritime Shooting Drills
KBS World ^

Posted on 12/05/2010 5:45:02 PM PST by jhpigott

2010-12-06 09:53:12 The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) in Seoul says the military will hold maritime shooting drills at 29 sea locations from Monday through Sunday.

The JCS says that 16 of the drill locations are in the Yellow Sea, including areas southwest of Daecheong Island. Seven of the locations are in the East Sea and six are in the seas off the southern coast of the peninsula.

However, the JCS says the drills will not be conducted in areas around Baengnyeong Island or Yeonpyeong Island near the Yellow Sea maritime border with North Korea. Yeonpyeong was the site of a deadly North Korean artillery attack on November 23rd.

The military says the timetable for drills near Yeonpyeong will be announced soon in consideration of weather conditions and the safety of residents.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: nkorea; northkorea; pyongyang; republicofkorea; waronterror
I think there is a genuine concern within the ROK that if they start live fire exercises off of Baengyeong and/or Yeonpyeong Islands, the DPRK is ready to stage another provocations.
1 posted on 12/05/2010 5:45:04 PM PST by jhpigott
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To: TigerLikesRooster; AmericanInTokyo; AU72; maquiladora; justa-hairyape; SunkenCiv; ...

ping


2 posted on 12/05/2010 5:46:21 PM PST by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott

It appears the Chinese press is all over this . . .

FLASH: SOUTH KOREAN LIVE-FIRE SHOOTING EXERCISES START — MEDIA

[link to news.xinhuanet.com]


3 posted on 12/05/2010 5:49:38 PM PST by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott

“drills will not be conducted in areas around Baengnyeong Island or Yeonpyeong Island near the Yellow Sea maritime border with North Korea”

Because of that, I would be very very surprised if NK were to react to these drills.


4 posted on 12/05/2010 6:04:50 PM PST by maquiladora
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To: jhpigott

I wonder if things have really changed in SK and they are trying to provoke NK into doing something they will regret?


5 posted on 12/05/2010 6:06:13 PM PST by The Magical Mischief Tour (With The Resistance...)
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To: TigerLikesRooster; AmericanInTokyo; Jet Jaguar; monkapotamus; Cindy; All

PING A ROO


6 posted on 12/05/2010 6:26:21 PM PST by SevenofNine ("We are Freepers, all your media belong to us ,resistance is futile")
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To: jhpigott

Bump


7 posted on 12/05/2010 6:31:31 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (*)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

“I wonder if things have really changed in SK and they are trying to provoke NK into doing something they will regret?”

For better or for worse, NO.


8 posted on 12/05/2010 6:38:06 PM PST by 2harddrive
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

This is not provocation.

Provocation is something like sinking a Destroyer or shelling another countrys’ island. These naval exercises happen all the time, even NK does them.


9 posted on 12/05/2010 6:47:47 PM PST by GeronL
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To: GeronL

Your missing the point here...

Timing is issue not the action when dealing with lunatics such as NK.

Regardless of the action, how benign it is. It’s a question of timing.

The most commonplace, most reasonable and rational of actions, if they occur at the right time can send any mentally ill person into a full-blown panic or rage.


10 posted on 12/05/2010 6:54:55 PM PST by The Magical Mischief Tour (With The Resistance...)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

“I wonder if things have really changed in SK and they are trying to provoke NK into doing something they will regret?”

If that were the strategy, All the SK president would have to do is address the Dear Leader as a fat, drug addict, pot bellied pig.


11 posted on 12/05/2010 7:09:06 PM PST by Rebelbase
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To: jhpigott

Are “maritime shooting drills” anything like naval gunnery practice?

;^)


12 posted on 12/05/2010 7:15:03 PM PST by BenLurkin (This post is not a statement of fact. It is merely a personal opinion -- or humor -- or both)
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To: jhpigott; AdmSmith; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; bigheadfred; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks jhpigott.
13 posted on 12/05/2010 7:25:55 PM PST by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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To: maquiladora

Yep. For now anyways. Still no word when they will start the drills up again by Yeonpyeong Island. When/if they do, that’s when we have to watch out.


14 posted on 12/05/2010 7:28:38 PM PST by jhpigott
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To: maquiladora

One of the locations of the drills will be Daecheong Island, 80 kilometers west of Yeonpyeong Island. The island is near the Northern Limit Line, which North Korea does not recognize.

From: http://www.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/06_01.html


15 posted on 12/05/2010 7:39:16 PM PST by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott
I agree that they will make another provocation. Probably more serious. They are executing incremental terror tactics. However, I doubt that this is the time for it, although it cannot be ruled out.

To maximize the psychological impact, they usually hit it when anxiety in S. Korea dies down and things appear to go back to normal. Then they hit again, preferably the place others may not have expected, but not necessarily so.

They had some good results after Cheonan's sinking. Non-stop belligerent posturing ignited fear among some S. Korean electorate and pro-North opposition benefited. They figure that the right level of military provocation would create enough fear among S. Korean population but short of exploding outrage, so that SK population would rather succumb to N. Korea's will, abandoning tough policy against N. Korea, and starting to accommodate N. Korea's NLL agenda.

This time around, outrage won over fear. So far. They could figure the more deadly provocation could change the balance to their advantage. This is to maximize the fear among SK population that they could lose everything they have while giving some room for renewing their vain hope that they may avoid more disaster by placating N. Korea again.

In the end, N. Korea wants Finlandization of S. Korea

16 posted on 12/05/2010 9:17:14 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Might eventually see a MiG-23 vs. KF-16 dogfight(s) before the day is out, eh?

I suspect they (the Reds) will start shelling somewhere, probably initially shore to DPRK territorial waters, or within DPRK territorial waters, to make some noise. One thing is for sure, keep one's eye on the little fat, pot-bellied pig one and Junior. If they go to deep ground, either in Pyongyang under KWP headquarters in one of the bunkers, or worse yet, up near Paektu, they could be readying for the final act.

Maybe all these bogus "on the spot guidance" news stories for the last six days are just that..."bogus". Who is to say that he really did visit those various places and on those various days. They could well be going down below at this time.

17 posted on 12/06/2010 1:01:33 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (**George W Bush** bears as much responsibility as CARTER, CLINTON and OBAMA over N. Korean nukes)
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To: AmericanInTokyo
all these bogus "on the spot guidance" news stories

There have always been credibility problem with these stories.

18 posted on 12/06/2010 1:09:43 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I guess that is where the “Pyongyangologists” come in, with an incredible eye for detail, eh?


19 posted on 12/06/2010 1:33:04 AM PST by AmericanInTokyo (**George W Bush** bears as much responsibility as CARTER, CLINTON and OBAMA over N. Korean nukes)
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To: jhpigott

“However the JCS said a drill off Daecheong, one of the five frontline islands, had been delayed due to bad weather.”

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hUadX9QUTmZ75tVWyb8cjOwIx4nQ?docId=CNG.14a4e293d01a51c1733429bdd67c8378.631

Surprise surprise! “Bad weather” once again causes the delay/cancellation of an exercise in an area that might p!ss off North Korea. This must be the 3rd or 4th time an exercise in an area close to NK has been canceled due to ‘bad weather’ or ‘no reason given’ in the past few days while all the other exercises away from the NK border seem to have no problems!


20 posted on 12/07/2010 5:27:04 AM PST by maquiladora
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To: maquiladora

I believe there is a real ROK/US concern that any more live fire drills in the NLL could set off a shooting war. Don’t know how else to explain these repeated cancellations (other than to say that the ROK lacks fortitude)

Did you happen to catch Gates yesterday? Interesting that he chose to comment on the NORK situation from the deck of the USS Lincoln.

“Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned Monday that provocative actions by North Korea signal difficult and potentially dangerous times ahead, and he said the U.S. must work with China and others to bring stability to the peninsula.”

I wonder what kind of intel he is seeing that indicates “potentially dangerous times ahead”?

G has a new post out that is worth taking a look at.
http://www.informationdissemination.net/


21 posted on 12/07/2010 6:45:48 AM PST by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott

Oh I believe there is a real fear that NK might do something crazy and use an exercise as an excuse to lash out again.

But what kind of a message is it giving NK when exercises are announced but then repeatedly called off at the last moments clearly due to fear of a NK reaction? I think it gives a message of indecision and a lack of nerve that will only make NK feel more secure and rewarded for their actions.


22 posted on 12/07/2010 7:03:03 AM PST by maquiladora
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To: maquiladora

I agree the on again/off again drills along the NLL probably aren’t sending the right message to the NORKs.

However, I think, overall, the US/ROK/Japan message to China and the DPRK in the wake of this attack has been pretty good. Sure a heck of a lot better than running back to the 6 party talks and paying off Kim with rice like we have in the past.

I can agree that the indecision on the ROKs part vis-a-vi the live fire drills along the NLL may make the DPRK feel somewhat more “secure”, but in light of the other steps the US/ROK/Japan have took, I don’t see where the DPRK is being “rewarded” . . . except if you mean by “rewarded” that they have not been on the receiving end of some TLAMs or JDAMs.


23 posted on 12/07/2010 7:20:09 AM PST by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott

By rewarded I mean this : For years South Korea carried out regular and routine live fire exercises close to the NLL. Since the NK attack however, all SK exercises in areas close to the border have been either delayed or canceled. In NK that will be viewed as something of a victory I think.

I agree with you that the reaction to the NK attack has been different from what we have seen in the past, but I’m not convinced yet that there is an actual plan that goes beyond just holding naval exercies and not re-starting the six party talks just yet. Hopefully there is a plan and we are not just playing for time while we hope China puts pressure on NK to make radical changes.

I think the problem is that SK had a chance to hit back at NK in a justified way that would be limited yet harsh enough to make them really reconsider provocative actions in the future. But what happened, either out of weakness or poor ROE/communication, was a very poor military responsive.
Too much time has passed now for SK to hit back at NK and we are in a sort of limbo situation with lots of tough talk and naval drills to try and make up for that.


24 posted on 12/07/2010 9:17:31 AM PST by maquiladora
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