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Michigan GOP Numbers
Public Policy Polling ^ | 12/10/2010 | Tom Jensen

Posted on 12/10/2010 2:01:56 PM PST by speciallybland

John Engler, largely based on superior name recognition, is the top choice of Michigan Republicans to take on Debbie Stabenow in 2012. Among the more likely roster of potential GOP contenders Pete Hoekstra is the leader by a good margin with only Mike Cox also hitting double digits.

31% of Republican voters say Engler would be their first choice, followed by 24% for Hoekstra, and 12% for Cox. Rounding out the Republicans polled is Terri Lynn Land at 7%, Candice Miller at 5%, Mike Rogers at 4%, Thad McCotter at 3%, and Tim Leuliette at 0%. If Leuliette, who has shown the most public interest in running so far, somehow ends up in the Senate he will truly be able to say he started with nothing.

Engler has 72% name recognition and that's the main reason for his early lead. 59% of voters know Land, 58% know Hoekstra and Miller, and just 17% have an opinion about Leuliette. With voters who have an opinion about Hoekstra whether it's positive or negative he's actually the top choice of Republicans by a 32-30 margin over Engler. Given that an Engler candidacy seems very unlikely at this point Hoekstra's probably the early front runner on the Republican side if he decides to get into the race.

The numbers on the Presidential side are emblematic of the paradox that plagues Mitt Romney's potential candidacy: he does better than most Republicans with Democrats and independents, but the GOP base just isn't that enthused about him. The general election part of this poll earlier in the week found Romney trailing Barack Obama by only 4 points when the rest of the GOP hopefuls were all down by double digits. But when it comes to who GOP voters in the state want as their nominee Romney can only muster a tie with Mike Huckabee at 22%, with Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich just a little further back at 18% and 15% respectively. Ron Paul actually hits double digits in Michigan at 10%, with Tim Pawlenty at 3%, Mitch Daniels at 2%, and John Thune at 1% rounding out the Republican field.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: 2012; candicemiller; carllevin; debbiestabenow; gingrich; huckabee; johnengler; johnthune; michigan; mikecox; mikehuckabee; mikerogers; mittromney; newtgingrich; palin; paul; petehoekstra; president; romney; ronpaul; sarahpalin; terrilynnland; thadmccotter; thune; timleuliett
Romney: 22%
Huckabee: 22%
Palin: 18%
Gingrich: 15%
Paul: 10%
Pawlenty: 3%
Daniels: 2%
Thune: 1%
1 posted on 12/10/2010 2:02:01 PM PST by speciallybland
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To: speciallybland

We really need to get some movement on closing our primaries in Michigan.


2 posted on 12/10/2010 2:13:00 PM PST by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: onyx; Virginia Ridgerunner; rintense; Clyde5445; Bigtigermike; Brices Crossroads
I realize it's early, but check these numbers out; they show how Romney can win via the McCain route.

It also shows why Huckster running along with a bunch of dwarves splitting conservatives could put Romney in.

3 posted on 12/10/2010 2:13:17 PM PST by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: cripplecreek

Do you have any idea what needs to be done, and how it can be changed?


4 posted on 12/10/2010 2:14:07 PM PST by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: Lakeshark
Saul Anuzis helped to flip Michigan to Republican... (Governor, Senate, & House...)

Anuzis can help land Michigan in 2012 BUT he is a Romney guy.
5 posted on 12/10/2010 2:18:54 PM PST by Minus_The_Bear
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To: Lakeshark
If Saul Anuzis gains the RNC Chairmanship... say goodbye to Michigan for Palin.

Anuzis is a great guy and he flipped the entire state of Michigan in 2010... but he is a Romney guy. He needs to disavow Romney now.
6 posted on 12/10/2010 2:21:24 PM PST by Minus_The_Bear
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To: Lakeshark; Al B.; Virginia Ridgerunner; rintense; Clyde5445; Bigtigermike; Brices Crossroads

PPL is the Daily KOS poll, so I don’t put much, if any, credence into it, especially at this early point. I didn’t read the margin of error, but Palin is right there and Romney hails from your state.

Huckaboob ran last time and has his TV show. Sarah Palin will win the nomination if she runs. Romneycare is Obamacare and he can’t shake that.

This idiot poll looks like name recognition to me, and I include everyone named.


7 posted on 12/10/2010 2:23:33 PM PST by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: Minus_The_Bear

Beating Stabenow would be great. Too bad there wasn’t a Senate election there this year. Anyway if they win MI in 2012 it is a big boost in the effort to take back the Senate.


8 posted on 12/10/2010 2:23:47 PM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: cripplecreek

That’s a pretty dangerous idea. A closed primary might nominate someone remotely resembling a conservative and the voters are so dumb they would vote for him. /sarc /br’er rabbit mode


9 posted on 12/10/2010 2:27:16 PM PST by magslinger ('This is a United States Marine Corps FA-18 fighter. Send 'em up, I'll wait!')
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To: speciallybland
If Romney can't break 25% in his birth state despite buying off most of the establishment, than he's done unless he goes the McCain route of luck. He doesn't have the McCain alternative thing helping him either.

The grass roots just don't like him.

10 posted on 12/10/2010 2:27:56 PM PST by Darren McCarty (Michigan's Supreme Court - Once again, it is best in the country.)
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To: onyx
Yeah, I realize it's early, but it does show there is a problem.

I do believe she could take Michigan over Romney (unless there are too many dem crossovers) if she comes out with her next brilliant move, a series of pure policy positions staking out the difference between her and Obama.

What the poll shows is that people like pissant, with their 1% candidates, could give us Romney.

11 posted on 12/10/2010 2:28:42 PM PST by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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As far as Stabenow goes, I’d like to see Rocky give it a try. Engler??? That can go either way.


12 posted on 12/10/2010 2:29:45 PM PST by Darren McCarty (Michigan's Supreme Court - Once again, it is best in the country.)
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To: speciallybland
Well, since I live in Michigan, I don't believe any of this. I would like to know who they polled.

Frankly I think anyone can beat Stabenow, my dog Madison could, but I don't think Land would win anything, she has done nothing as Sec Of State, including allowing Zero on the ballot, and the SOS offices are still a pathetic mess, long waits, high renewal charges for plates and a system that is generally a royal pain in the a%%, with a bunch of lazy union employees..

Romney, even with his father's name recognition as Governor here, could not possibly be at the top. This state is going red, once again, because the Gov and Michigan Govt has bankrupted it. Romney Care is similar to Obama Care and we want NO part of it. For the first time in my lifetime, people have woken up and are paying attention in this beautiful, overtaxed, over-regulated state. Empty businesses in almost every town and city show the problem is massive.

Unions have destroyed this state, and they bully the people here with govt consent. Ask the people that lost their jobs, their homes, and their money, why they came out in record numbers to give the GOP all high office appointments. Its about to happen again and possibly for generations. Granholm blew it big time. Heaven knows what else she has blown. We don't want a GOP Gov that is Granholm light.

Michigan, once a bunch of Obama suckers, has seen the light. Well, most of them, except the welfare population, and we can overcome that in 2012, just like we did in 2010.

And we will.

13 posted on 12/10/2010 2:31:05 PM PST by Debi911
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To: Minus_The_Bear
I'm sure he pushed, but I don't think he really did the damage he's claiming.

That was done by Jenny G.

He wasn't the briliant tactician he claims, otherwise she wouldn't have dominated for so many years like she did.

14 posted on 12/10/2010 2:31:13 PM PST by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: speciallybland

For your info Mitt Romney’s numbers have nosed-dived in Michigan as well:

OVERALL MODER CONS WOM MEN
May 31 37 56 32 45 31
Sept 28 30 36 27 30 29
Dec 10 22 22 23 22 22

Check out Colorado, Florida, Texas, Illinois as well and you will see Romney’s numbers have plummeted in several polls. Huckabee is now tied with Romney and Palin is within 4 points of Romney now whereas in September she was 13 points back.

The numbers are deceiving.


15 posted on 12/10/2010 2:31:30 PM PST by techno
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To: speciallybland

Just my gut feel.... I bet dollars to donuts Thaddeus McCotter throws his hat in the ring. Dr Steele that lost against Dingell would do just as well as the known names mentioned in this thread. After the way so many RNC types have behaved, I want a new face.


16 posted on 12/10/2010 2:33:10 PM PST by taildragger ((Palin / Mulally 2012 ))
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To: taildragger

Thad might run with redistricting. He’s in a tough seat right now with “Detroit” moving more into the suburbs. Redford, Westland, Wayne, and Belleville are only getting bluer.


17 posted on 12/10/2010 2:37:55 PM PST by Darren McCarty (Michigan's Supreme Court - Once again, it is best in the country.)
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To: taildragger

I like Thad McCotter, I am in his district, and let me tell you, he drives the bat sh!t crazy left, bonkers (more so than they already are)! It is incredibly funny to watch! Some of my leftie neighbors actually had a crying “Romper Room” moment when he won last month..haha!

And whenever I want to talk to him he is readily available. He is a good man, he really is. Whatever he decides to run for I will support.


18 posted on 12/10/2010 2:40:06 PM PST by Debi911
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To: Darren McCarty

Thats not really true, his district includes a huge hunk of Livonia and they are very red. Hes safe.


19 posted on 12/10/2010 2:41:28 PM PST by Debi911
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To: Debi911
For now, Livonia's red, especially for an Irish Catholic like McCotter, but Wayne, Westland, Redford, and Belleville are not. Canton is sketchy. After the property crashes in the area and the "changing" going on there, I'm even getting more concerned with East Livonia in a few years. I can get a house there easily right now for 30K east of Middlebelt.

Since Michigan loses a seat, how are the lines going to be redrawn to get the extra 50K people, without damaging Mike Rogers or Tim Walberg, or helping Gary Peters. Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield and Dearborn Heights are very blue. Inkster and Romulus are so blue it can flip the district. The Dingell parts of Washtenaw County are nasty areas to the west. Does he add Waterford?

20 posted on 12/10/2010 2:54:38 PM PST by Darren McCarty (Michigan's Supreme Court - Once again, it is best in the country.)
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To: speciallybland

After you take Romney and Huckabee’s names and move them over to the WHEN HELL FREEZES OVER list, Sarah Palin will be found at the top of the list, where she belongs. IMHO.


21 posted on 12/10/2010 3:04:41 PM PST by Tucker39
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To: onyx; Lakeshark; Al B.; Virginia Ridgerunner; rintense; Bigtigermike; Brices Crossroads

There a commenter here (name escapes me) who mentioned The very fact Sarah endorsed Dr. B (who took over Stupaks seat) who won has an ally in Mich. Yes, the good Dr. probably would have won anyways but still Sarah is alot more competitive in Mich than people think. It was a strategic move to gain a foot hold in Dr. B’s district.

Oh by the way Dr B is supportive of Sarah as well.


22 posted on 12/10/2010 3:05:14 PM PST by Clyde5445 (Gov. Sarah Palin: :"You have to sacrifice to win. That's my philosophy in 6 words.")
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To: Clyde5445
I read that as well, it was a great move, and Dr. B is a wonderful new, first time congress critter from the district next to ours. It has the potential to swing Michigan to her, I think she does have a decent chance.

Romney's dad was a governor here as well as a major player in the auto industry, so he does have name recognition.

The poll does show how Romney could slip in with Huck and a bunch of "conservatives" splitting enough for him to slide in.

McCain did it last time, it's something she (and the rest of us conservatives) need to figure out.

23 posted on 12/10/2010 3:28:41 PM PST by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: Clyde5445
Besides, she loves Hockey........

what Red Wing fan wouldn't love that!

24 posted on 12/10/2010 3:30:01 PM PST by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: Clyde5445

‘Dr. B’ is Dan Benishek. Good man from what I can tell.


25 posted on 12/10/2010 3:47:45 PM PST by Al B.
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To: Al B.

Thanks. I just didn’t want to spell it incorrectly.


26 posted on 12/10/2010 3:58:18 PM PST by Clyde5445 (Gov. Sarah Palin: :"You have to sacrifice to win. That's my philosophy in 6 words.")
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To: Minus_The_Bear; Lakeshark; onyx; Clyde5445; Virginia Ridgerunner
If Saul Anuzis gains the RNC Chairmanship... say goodbye to Michigan for Palin.

If Saul Anuzis gains the RNC chairmanship, the chances for a 3rd party in 2012 goes up substantially.

Anuzis is a great guy and he flipped the entire state of Michigan in 2010... but he is a Romney guy. He needs to disavow Romney now.

Saul Anuzis is a big Newt Gingrich fan. He once said that if he had his way he would appoint Newt Gingrich as president.

He also worked for Newt's 527 group, American Solutions, in 2009.

Saul Anuzis Joins American Solutions' Team

If Rove/Duncan/Gillespie are not successful in re-taking control of the RNC in January, look for Anuzis to be the compromise choice.

Either way, it would be a disaster for conservatives, the Tea Party and Sarah Palin.

27 posted on 12/10/2010 4:00:24 PM PST by Al B.
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To: speciallybland

UP Michigan person ( I am not a native Yooper though) Dr. B. yes way to go. Romney you can forget about him ask people in the UP and the response is Sarah Palin. Romney’s father was a governor in the 60s and he was connected with AMC American Motors corporation. remember AMC was bought by Renault and eventually Chrysler. How is that working out for America as Chrysler is now owned by Fiat - fix it again Tony? Notice renault did not last long in America Alliance and Encore, Fuego and the Le Car.
forget Huckabee. In terms of people for Senator against Stabenow. Hoekstra and the former Repubican Governor Engler. ( i can tell you something how good MI is in 2006, I was still getting letters from Lansing with John Engler as the Governor,on the letterhead yet it was Grannie was in office). notice she is in her second term and will be gone at the end of this year and she is moving to California - the land of fruits, nuts and flakes)


28 posted on 12/10/2010 4:08:19 PM PST by hondact200 ( Obama is Nuckin Futs!!!)
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To: Al B.; Lakeshark; onyx; Virginia Ridgerunner

“Either way, it would be a disaster for conservatives, the Tea Party and Sarah Palin.”

Conversely, it will be a disaster for the RNC because We The People are NOT going to be led around by the nose anymore.

It’s a two way street and the elites are heading off a cliff.


29 posted on 12/10/2010 4:16:34 PM PST by Clyde5445 (Gov. Sarah Palin: :"You have to sacrifice to win. That's my philosophy in 6 words.")
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To: Al B.; All

If this guy gets control of the RNC and then uses it to undermine Sarah Palin at the behest of the GOP grand-poobahs, then I am FINISHED with the Republican Party, PERIOD.


30 posted on 12/10/2010 4:20:02 PM PST by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner
Your chances of being finished with the Republican Party are very high, unfortunately. Mine, too.

While the establishment is jockeying for control of the party structure, conservatives are busy getting rid of Michael Steele, who at least has been receptive to the Tea Party.

Conservatives are not focusing on this upcoming fight in January for control of the party machinery. I guarantee you the Washingtonian wing of the party is. They want Steele gone...NOW.

31 posted on 12/10/2010 4:30:39 PM PST by Al B.
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To: grellis
If Leuliette, who has shown the most public interest in running so far, somehow ends up in the Senate he will truly be able to say he started with nothing.
Except maybe he's not really a Republican? Obviously I don't know this, it's just a possibility, but I've never heard of the guy, and here he's being touted for all practical purposes. The "Republican" governor we just elected came out of nowhere, starting with no political experience. Thanks speciallybland.


32 posted on 12/10/2010 4:35:20 PM PST by SunkenCiv ("Ending a sentence with a preposition is something up with which I will not put." -Winston Churchill)
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To: Springman; sergeantdave; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; ...

If you would like to be added or dropped from the Michigan ping list, please freepmail me.


33 posted on 12/11/2010 8:41:36 AM PST by grellis (I am Jill's overwhelming sense of disgust.)
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To: Al B.

Very right. I’ve been saying it too and it’s like trying to talk to a brick wall when it comes to the ‘Steele has to go’ crowd.

Rove and Duncan engineered the lousy RNC fundraising by siphoning off big donors to their American Crossdressers group.

Can you imagine what it would be like if the head of the national RNC acting like that jackass in Delaware? Steele has his faults, but he’s at least receptive to our cause and doesn’t actively work against us. Rove and his people will.


34 posted on 12/11/2010 8:09:33 PM PST by perfect_rovian_storm (The worst is behind us. Unfortunately it is really well endowed.)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm
Rove and Duncan engineered the lousy RNC fundraising by siphoning off big donors to their American Crossdressers group.

American Crossdressers...LOL. Seriously, though, couple the big-dollar donors going to American Crossroads and the conservative small donors saying 'no mas' to the RNC after '08 (a rational reaction, BTW) -- it's no wonder the RNC is starved for money and everybody is blaming Steele for it.

Don't get me wrong, I'm no big supporter of Steele but I believe, like you, that he understands the jeopardy of saying "screw you" to the Tea Party conservatives.

Team Rove/Duncan/Gillespie are surely feeling good about how they've engineered all this. I sure don't. As I said earlier in the thread, if Rove & co. don't get their guy in, Saul Anuzis will probably be the compromise choice for RNC Chairman. He's Newt's guy.

Either way, conservatives lose out. The establishment is counting on the tea-party base to fall in line once again as they manipulate the machinery to get their man nominated for president in 2012.

They may be wrong this time.

35 posted on 12/11/2010 8:37:11 PM PST by Al B.
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To: Al B.

I’m pretty sure we’re going to lose on the Steele issue, just because nobody’s listening. I haven’t seen a single blog post on it and haven’t heard a single talk radio host address it. Basically, there’s you and me who are ringing the alarm bells. Call me crazy, but I have my doubts about that being enough. :)

I don’t think they can stop Sarah from getting the nomination, but I’m worried about them knifing her in the back after that. She might have to take on a Bush 41 type VP in order to placate them. Not the worst thing in the world, as long as he’s strategically chosen to be too old to run for the top job in 8 years.


36 posted on 12/11/2010 8:52:56 PM PST by perfect_rovian_storm (The worst is behind us. Unfortunately it is really well endowed.)
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To: Lakeshark
If Romney is the nominee, 2012 will be a bloodbath for the GOP.

Many of us here will be actively working for a third party with absolutely no qualms.
37 posted on 12/11/2010 9:01:46 PM PST by Antoninus (Fair warning: If Romney's the GOP nominee in 2012, I'm looking for a new party.)
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To: speciallybland

Thad McCotter seems underrated to me. I’d like to see him become a big part of the next administration or Congress.

I think if he set his mind to it he could go all the way to the White House by 2018.


38 posted on 12/12/2010 5:50:19 AM PST by equaviator ("There's a (datum) plane on the horizon coming in...see it?")
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To: equaviator

...”by 2018.”

sorry, make that Jan. 2017.


39 posted on 12/12/2010 5:55:24 AM PST by equaviator ("There's a (datum) plane on the horizon coming in...see it?")
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To: Darren McCarty

Here is my prediction on what happens to the lost House seat.

Republicans in Michigan will draw a district that will contain Gary Peters (9th) and Dale Kildee (5th), forcing them to run against each other in a primary, or what is the more likely option, an end to Kildee. Which works fine, considering the guy died 8 years ago, all that exists of him now is old file footage and someone else voting in his place.

Gary Peters’ district will look like the old 9th, containing most of Flint, while Kildee’s Thumb farm country (Tuscola Co., etc) will go to Candace Miller, Bay City will go to Dan Benishek, and Dave Camp will take as much of Saginaw as he can without turning 50/50 his usual 70/30 vote totals.

Some people might think that this is the opportunity to get rid of Conyers, but Kildee is surrounded by Republicans and it is easy to fit a district containing him and one other nearby Democrat. That is what they should do.


40 posted on 01/03/2011 1:12:10 PM PST by BaBaStooey ("Awake, O sleeper, and arise from the dead, and Christ will give you light." Ephesians 5:14)
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To: BaBaStooey
Some people might think that this is the opportunity to get rid of Conyers

That should read: Conyers or Dingell
41 posted on 01/03/2011 1:13:25 PM PST by BaBaStooey ("Awake, O sleeper, and arise from the dead, and Christ will give you light." Ephesians 5:14)
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