Skip to comments.Stormy weather? Our skies stay dry, but predictions point toward a busy 2011 hurricane season
Posted on 12/15/2010 9:49:34 PM PST by a fool in paradise
Most Houstonians don't spend much time thinking about hurricanes in mid-December as the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year approach. Although next Tuesday marks the first day of winter, solstice also represents a seasonal nadir, when the sun reaches its lowest point in the southern sky and begins its northerly climb toward future summer.
So far this season, the nights have been bracing, but with no hard freeze in the metro area. If urban gardeners have a complaint, it's about the paucity of rain that has left us six inches below normal and flirting with drought.
So why are we thinking about tropical storms at the onset of winter? Two of the earliest forecasts for the storm season that begins June 1 are chilling. They predict another busy season, much like the one just concluded, but indicate the U.S. is unlikely to escape unscathed as it did in 2010, when a seemingly invisible shield shunted the big storms into Mexico, the Caribbean or the North Atlantic. ...The basis for these forecasts is a pool of cool water in the Pacific off South America, known as La Niña, and record high sea temperatures in development zones of the tropical Atlantic, both of which can boost storm formation.
...two years of good fortune might be one too many to expect.
(Excerpt) Read more at chron.com ...
Broken clock is right twice a day.
Jean Dixon and Criswell had a better track record with new year predictions.
It's been very dry here in North Texas, too. I've never seen our local lakes so low.
It's making things tough as hell on my rain gutter business, as well. The phone is quieter than I've seen it in ages, and we're now scraping to get by.
Time to diversify, champ! "Solar panels for your home! E-Z financing! Tax credits from Uncle Sam!"
Windflier, if you have never seen local lakes lower, you haven’t lived here long.
Have you forgotten the summer of 2006? Drier than dirt for three years, wildfires everywhere, stock tanks not just low but bone dry. More cow patties than grass in the middle of summer. Lake Lavon 16 feet down: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT2cIzHnX5s
North Texas is in better shape right now than much of the rest of the state, but we do need rain.
I still laugh when hearing the phrase, “climate change”.
I can tell you where your rain is, it is in northern CA. We have had more rain this year so far than I can remember and I have lived here a long time. We have more coming in this week and next.
Rain next May or August ping?
This last year they took to naming every little rainstorm in order to keep their numbers up.
Bring it ‘11.
What, another busy hurricane season? They’re acting like a broken clock.
I was going to say the same thing. Heavy rain yesterday and the big stuff coming in this week-end. Aw, climate change, indeed.
I've been watching this website for years and the tropical Atlantic seems normal right now. Watch what the extended winter season does to the tropical zone and then what happens when June approaches and the southern hemisphere gets colder.
Also interesting to watch is seeing the cold wake from one hurricane ending the life of another that crosses the cold wake of the previous storm, albeit, within a week of the cold wakes presence.
Frequency of storms vs overall intensity.
The last few years since 2006 has seen a big drop in the average season energy of the total storms.
Since the 70’s, storms that would have gone undetected prior to then, are now adding to numbers.
There were several that bloomed and reached “H” and then rapidly dissipated.
The wx services would have been unaware of these in the not so distant past.
This may be the only thing capable of raising the storm intensity.
If anything will facilitate this coming true it is the sun coming out of its protracted slumber.
“There were almost 800 days of inactivity between sunspot cycles 23 and 24.”
Remember, the art must teach the masses.
Because we needed to feed our readers a dose of liberal indoctrination, and it was "global warming's" turn in the rotation?
It is a mistake to equate the lack of U.S. landfalls with an uneventful or quiet tropical storm season.
That's not necessarily true for Texas. We here in the central part of the state often end up on the *dry* side of storms,(Rita, Ike, etc) increasing our temps and nullifying any chance of rainfall.
The TS that came through in September, actually tracked right over head giving us copious amounts during a 30 hour time period. Since then, not a drop.
I was just thinking the same thing as I read this...
I think this has been the forecast since the NO tragedy
Up here we could believe a forecast about people being frozen to death and buried in the snow
All that global warming ya know
They keep calling tails.
You might want to check out a site jmmccaneyscience.com. He’s a thruther nut but his science offering’s seem to answer a lot of questions about what real weather is all about. To me his political rants boil down to what most of us feel. What’s going on?
There were 19 named storms this year, well above average, and in line with the forecast.
We don’t think of 2010 as a big year for tropical activity, because most of them didn’t hit land, particularly our land.
I’d like to think that you are right, but I fear that your cynicism is unjustified.
Lack of Sunspot activity.
The more sunspot (flares from sunspots) activity, the more 'extreme' the weather becomes (more energy).
Have you forgotten the summer of 2006?
No, I haven't. That was our first year here. You're right that it was bone dry. But, we didn't live right next to a lake at the time, so I didn't notice the low lake levels.
I had no idea that Lake Lavon got 16 feet below normal at that time. That must have been one helluva sight. I live right next to it now, so I'm very aware of the ebb and flow of the lake level.
In 2006 we lived in Rockwall. I remember that the cracks in our yard were so huge, that we wouldn't let our kids out there, for fear of them breaking ankles.
Re: the video of Lavon. Unreal.
I noted the bridge in the video, which means that it was filmed right down the road from me. Wildflowers growing on the lake bottom. Now that’s dry.
Easier said than done, my friend. You're talking learning, then starting a whole new business. We'd starve before we got the first solar panel installed.
That said, we're going in a new direction next year. Illegals have destroyed the building trades for Americans. After 30 years, I'm being forced to move on.
The Airbrushed Hurricane at the Southern equator is also spinning the wrong direction. In the Southern Hemisphere, they spin clockwise.
Gore should be tried and convicted for fraud. Perhaps some new legal fund should be raised to do just that.
They are just trying to justify those huge Gummint grants. “Publish or Perish”, used to be the mantra in earlier times.
Ho hum, here they go again!