Skip to comments.Stormy weather? Our skies stay dry, but predictions point toward a busy 2011 hurricane season
Posted on 12/15/2010 9:49:34 PM PST by a fool in paradise
Most Houstonians don't spend much time thinking about hurricanes in mid-December as the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year approach. Although next Tuesday marks the first day of winter, solstice also represents a seasonal nadir, when the sun reaches its lowest point in the southern sky and begins its northerly climb toward future summer.
So far this season, the nights have been bracing, but with no hard freeze in the metro area. If urban gardeners have a complaint, it's about the paucity of rain that has left us six inches below normal and flirting with drought.
So why are we thinking about tropical storms at the onset of winter? Two of the earliest forecasts for the storm season that begins June 1 are chilling. They predict another busy season, much like the one just concluded, but indicate the U.S. is unlikely to escape unscathed as it did in 2010, when a seemingly invisible shield shunted the big storms into Mexico, the Caribbean or the North Atlantic. ...The basis for these forecasts is a pool of cool water in the Pacific off South America, known as La Niña, and record high sea temperatures in development zones of the tropical Atlantic, both of which can boost storm formation.
...two years of good fortune might be one too many to expect.
(Excerpt) Read more at chron.com ...
Broken clock is right twice a day.
Jean Dixon and Criswell had a better track record with new year predictions.
It's been very dry here in North Texas, too. I've never seen our local lakes so low.
It's making things tough as hell on my rain gutter business, as well. The phone is quieter than I've seen it in ages, and we're now scraping to get by.
Time to diversify, champ! "Solar panels for your home! E-Z financing! Tax credits from Uncle Sam!"
Windflier, if you have never seen local lakes lower, you haven’t lived here long.
Have you forgotten the summer of 2006? Drier than dirt for three years, wildfires everywhere, stock tanks not just low but bone dry. More cow patties than grass in the middle of summer. Lake Lavon 16 feet down: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IT2cIzHnX5s
North Texas is in better shape right now than much of the rest of the state, but we do need rain.
I still laugh when hearing the phrase, “climate change”.
I can tell you where your rain is, it is in northern CA. We have had more rain this year so far than I can remember and I have lived here a long time. We have more coming in this week and next.
Rain next May or August ping?
This last year they took to naming every little rainstorm in order to keep their numbers up.
Bring it ‘11.
What, another busy hurricane season? They’re acting like a broken clock.
I was going to say the same thing. Heavy rain yesterday and the big stuff coming in this week-end. Aw, climate change, indeed.
I've been watching this website for years and the tropical Atlantic seems normal right now. Watch what the extended winter season does to the tropical zone and then what happens when June approaches and the southern hemisphere gets colder.
Also interesting to watch is seeing the cold wake from one hurricane ending the life of another that crosses the cold wake of the previous storm, albeit, within a week of the cold wakes presence.
Frequency of storms vs overall intensity.
The last few years since 2006 has seen a big drop in the average season energy of the total storms.
Since the 70’s, storms that would have gone undetected prior to then, are now adding to numbers.
There were several that bloomed and reached “H” and then rapidly dissipated.
The wx services would have been unaware of these in the not so distant past.
This may be the only thing capable of raising the storm intensity.
If anything will facilitate this coming true it is the sun coming out of its protracted slumber.
“There were almost 800 days of inactivity between sunspot cycles 23 and 24.”
Remember, the art must teach the masses.
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