Skip to comments.On the Bubble: 10 States Await Tuesday Census Verdict on Congressional Gains, Losses (Predictions?)
Posted on 12/17/2010 3:15:41 PM PST by randita
On the Bubble: 10 States Await Tuesday Census Verdict on Congressional Gains, Losses
The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman looks at what it might mean for House members and their constituents.
By David Wasserman
Friday, December 17, 2010 | 2:23 p.m.
On Tuesday, U.S. Census Bureau officials will unveil numbers that will determine which states gain House seats and which states lose them in the once-a-decade reapportionment of congressional districts--and in the process launch a high-stakes political round of musical chairs. For the next year, powerful members of Congress will be nervously consulting computerized maps and wooing their political juniors in state legislatures in hopes of guaranteeing that their districts are not drawn out from under them.
The census verdict could alter a number of congressional careers--and not just those of newly elected (and therefore vulnerable) freshmen such as Republicans Ann Marie Buerkle, Richard Hanna, and Tom Reed of New York. It will also affect lawmakers with well-known names: GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota could find her constituency substantially changed; the district represented by veteran lawmaker James Clyburn of South Carolina, the third-ranking House Democratic leader, conceivably could be split to create two majority-black constituencies.
Among the states, many of the winners and losers are already known based on preliminary census figures. An estimated 12 House seats are expected to move among 18 states. Those certain to be shorted a seat: Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Sure bets to gain congressional clout: Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah, and Washington.
But a number of states are "on the bubble." Some are awaiting the census numbers to find out whether they'll gain a congressional seat, as North Carolina hopes to do, or lose a seat, as Illinois fears it will. Others, such as Florida, New York, and Texas, are looking to learn if their gains or losses will be greater than one.
With the advent of DIY redistricting and the help of freeware provided by Dave Bradlee, a West Coast-based software engineer and political junkie, it's possible to map out what some of the numbers might mean and how they might alter the face of Congress for the next decade.
I say TX gains two and PA loses two.
I predict two of the TX seats will be drawn to favor the GOP and two will probably be in metro areas (esp. Houston) and will probably favor the Dems.
PA will probably lose PA-12 (Critz) - if we're lucky. Don't know about the other PA one.
Care to make any predictions?
I predict TX +6 seats. 1 RG Valley, 1 Austin/SA metro, 2 each Houston metro and DFW metro.
I predict the lying rat bastards in DC will “fudge” the numbers for a rat advantage...Did you really expect an honest count?...red
We’re going to lose at least one in Michigan. Fortunately we took the gold in the election.
I have a non-specific prediction: The results of the census will be GOOD for people like us, (and by people like us, I’m referring, of course, to conservatives.)
I forget who said it, but it rains true: If you’re only going to win one election every ten years, win one when the census is being done. We did.
Governors, start your gerrymandering!
Legislatively? couldn't tell you.
But I will predict a raft of rapturous articles celebrating the continued erosion of the european-american majority.
Its become a ten year tradition.
(Captain Obvious alert)
Yep, of course they lie, they are Commies. All Commies lie.
Of course they will fudge the numbers to their advantage, as far as they can.
If PA loses two, I predict it will be PA-12 and PA-13.
New York, California, Ohio, Michigan, Illiois, and Florida lose. RAT-infested states all.
Tennessee, Texas and South Carolina gain.
TX gains 4.
Utah gains one, and yes, it will be GOP.
Barney Frank has made some noise about this being his last term, MA4 could end up being reabsorbed back into the districts it was gerrymandered out of.
Agree that TX gains 4. If not we need to demand a re-census.
If (when) New Jersey loses a seat it will be 7th CD Leonard Lance (RINO) first elected in 2009.
Not much of a loss IMHO.
The other option is 111th Congressional District: NJ04
Representative: Christopher H. Smith (R), but in doing so one of the neighboring (D) Districts would move from a solid (D) back to a swing district.
Addition by subtraction is Massachusetts losing one.
Clyburn and most of the black caucus members should be safe—the districts will be drawn to maximize their chances of keeping their seats.
Missouri is slated to lose one district. Lacy Clay will most likely keep his seat, but with a Republican legislature, Democrat Russ Carnahan may be redistricted out of his seat.
Gainers: TX +3, FL +2, UT +1, NV +1, GA +1 and AZ +1
Losers: NY -2, OH -2, PA -1, MI -1, IL -1, LA -1, IA -1
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