Skip to comments.Illinois: Democrats' lone redistricting prize is a big one
Posted on 12/18/2010 6:31:35 AM PST by randita
Illinois: Democrats' lone redistricting prize is a big one
When it comes to redistricting, Illinois is Democrats' prize pig. And it might be the biggest prize on the map for either party.
The Democrats control the drawing of the map in only seven states this year. But none of them compare in size or influence to the Land of Lincoln.
In fact, in the other six -- Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, Arkansas, West Virginia and Rhode Island -- the Democrats already control 25 of 32 congressional seats. That doesn't leave much room for map expansion.
Illinois is another story. Republicans just won four seats from Democrats this November and now hold an 11-to-8 edge in the state's congressional delegation. That means lots of room for gains for the other guys.
"This is really the one state where Democrats can do something," said David Wasserman, a redistricting expert at the Cook Political Report.
Illinois Republicans are scared. And they should be.
Those who should be most concerned are four new members -- Reps.-elect Joe Walsh, Bob Dold, Bobby Schilling and Adam Kinzinger -- and a member who just won his second term, Rep. Aaron Schock.
Walsh and Dold just won districts in the northern Chicago suburbs/exurbs near the Wisconsin border. And there's plenty of Democratic territory that can be added to both of their districts by drawing in parts of the Rep. Jan Schakowsky's (D) 9th district and some of the more Democratic areas of Rep.-elect Randy Hultgren's (R) 14th district.
(Be sure to follow along on the congressional map here and, for a closer look at the Chicago area, here.)
Besides the maneuvering in the Chicago area, the main change will be the likely loss of a district somewhere in the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at voices.washingtonpost.com ...
Lots of options - none of them good for the GOP.
I can’t believe that a process where politicians with a huge conflict of interest are allowed to chose their voters instead of the other way around. I have a problem with this even if it helps the GOP. It is wrong on so many levels, and a slap in the face of Democracy.
The people of Illinois keep electing liberals despite their horrible economy, high crime rates and corrupt government.
They deserve this.
Meanwhile, Republican gains in other states will more than offset anything the liberals can carve out of Illinois.
Providing Republicans deliver on smaller government and reduced deficits, we will see the GOP make more gains in 2012, just from redistricting.
Send more crooks, numbskulls, and outright liars to congress.
After all, Jesse Jackson, Jr. needs company.
The wins mentioned were by squishy RINO's who would never last anyway. In this zero-sum game, the Dim's will only find themselves back where they started with no net gain.
Illinois' problem is a Republican party in total disarray and a Democrat machine without comparison.
I must say, the people of Illinois are NOT electing these screwballs, but the voters of Chicago sure are. The entire state of Illinois is red, minus Chicago.
I wonder how long it’s going to take for the rest of the state to figure out how to secede. My sweetie lives on the north side, teaches on the southside, so I’ve been there many times.
The amount of corruption, self-dealing, and outright crime in gov’t is something to behold, especially if you come from a “good gov’t” kind of state.
It’s absolutely stunning. And the people in Chicago have given up.
Exactly. There is no saving Illinois. It will have to implode.
Meanwhile here in North Carolina, now hat the Republicans control both the state House and Senate for the first time in 100 years, the rat governor wants to take redistricting out of the legislature’s hands and leave it up to an “independent commission”....
You’re involved in a “what comes first - the chicken or the egg” argument.
The voters choose their Governor and State Legislature, the Governor and Legislature determine the make up of the U.S. House of Representatives districts to favor the party the voters have just elected to the Governorship and State Legislature. Wash, rinse, repeat.
It works both ways. Terxas will gain FOUR congressional seats, and with the GOP now firmly in control of the state legislature, and Gov Perry just re-elected, some estimates have it that with careful redistricting, the GOP could gain as many as EIGHT seats in the the Texas congressional delegation..the four new ones, plus four at the expense of sitting Dems. It works both ways. The people of each state elect their state represntatives,a nd they thus get the government they’ve chosen, Texas’ economy is BOOMING..Illinois’ is in the septic tank...wonder why?
It works both ways. Texas will gain FOUR congressional seats, and with the GOP now firmly in control of the state legislature, and Gov Perry just re-elected, some estimates have it that with careful redistricting, the GOP could gain as many as EIGHT seats in the the Texas congressional delegation..the four new ones, plus four at the expense of sitting Dems. It works both ways. The people of each state elect their state represntatives,a nd they thus get the government they’ve chosen, Texas’ economy is BOOMING..Illinois’ is in the septic tank...wonder why?
This situation where Dem states continue to lose electoral votes to Repub states will cause increasing scrutiny (which really never died since Gore lost in 2000) of the electoral college system. Texas will become the electoral powerhouse that California had been, and CA, NY, NJ will continue bleeding influence; it a situation the Dems must stop to remain relevant.
The Republican House should defund anything beneficial to this state, period - make them disperse to Wyoming or something.. Something is seriously effed up there. They and Ohio play far too big a part in election strategies.
This is the most pathetically sad attempt to find microscopic silver lining in a giant cloud of gloom for the Dems. So the Dems have one state to gerrymander, that was probably already pretty much drawn to benefit them anyway. The Repubs are getting to redraw states that were originally drawn to benefit the Dems. That is twice the change.
Yes, out of 102 counties in Illinois, only 4 voted democratic. Chicago wins out over the rest of the state. That’s why so many are leaving Illinois, including my family when I retire in 3 years.
However, this commission will likely be corrupted by the commies.
Not that it would be a significant change from the current state...
The state is a dump; I’m glad I left.
It was also mentioned in Forbes as the worst state for retirement.
It isn’t just that there is corruption, there is a sense of entitlement towards corruption. It’s actually multigenerational.
Makes me sick. Only a miracle from the courts could save us.
I dispute that I and the rest of decent people in this State that are outvoted (often fraudulently like this past Governor election) “deserve this”.
At what point is there going to be a revolt out there?
I have in-laws whose whole family is staunch Democrats - wouldn’t think of voting for a Republican. It would be blasphemous-LOL.
They began their married life living close to the city. Little by little, they have moved further and further west as the western suburbs have expanded. If they move again, they’ll be in Wisconsin! Know why they keep moving? I’m sure you do - outrageous property taxes. Through the roof outrageous. Rivaling NJ outrageous.
Yet faithfully they pull the D lever election after election.
I’ve never had the nerve to ask them if they thought it was their civic duty to pony up the taxes THEIR elected officials imposed on them - rather than move away to escape them. LOL
You were incorrect when you said, “The wins mentioned were by squishy RINO’s who would never last anyway.” I know Joe Walsh. He’s pro-tax cuts, pro-spending cuts, pro-life, and pro-gun. His district, the 8th, had conservative republican congressmen, 1961-2005, so he’ll probably win, in 2012.
That was true 10 years ago and resulted in Delaymandering.
It’s not true today.
The Democrats have a floor of 9 seats in Texas (2 in Dallas, 3 in Houston, 1 in San Antonio, 1 in El Paso, and 2 in South Texas along the border).
It’s probably wise to give them a 10th as well in Austin.
To be honest, it wasn’t.
There is a reason the Republicans have an 11-8 seat. What they have now is a Republican gerrymander that Dennis Hastert forced them to draw because he was Speaker of the House.
In anycase, this is probably what happens.
1. Walsh and Dold are thrown into the same district. The rest of their territory becomes a new district.
2. Either Roskam or Biggert is simply eliminated. The other is drowned out by Chicago votes.
3. Schilling gets a ton of Democrats downstate thrown into his district.
At a minimum, its really, really easy for them to turn an 8-11 split into a 11-7 split.
I live in Northfield, in Bob Dold’s district, about three miles north of Jan Schakowsky’s district. In the new map, do you think that I’ll live in Dold’s district or in Schakowsky’s? Who should oppose her, in 2012?
Tough to say. Right now, IL-8 (Shakowsky) and IL-10 (Dold) are split North/South. All they have to do is rotate them to split East/West, and dump 200k Chicago Liberals in Dold’s district.
It won’t matter who runs there. He/she won’t win.
Schakowsky’s district is the 9th. If their districts are rotated to split East/West, neither of them will live in the western district. He lives in Kennilworth, and she lives in Evanston.
If Schakowsky’s district includes Northfield Township, I hope that Brendan Appel or Steve Kim will oppose her.
Well, right. I’m sure they can dig up some state legislative Democrat to run in the West district. Obama will get at least 60% of the vote there.
I think we’re lucking out. Right now they’re talking about crunching Schilling’s district (17th). It’s currently an extremely ugly downstate district meant for a Democrat to win. Personally if I were them, I’d try to throw more Democrats in that district and crunch something else.
That basically leaves 3 downstate districts (Schock, Shimkus, Johnson), the one in the northwest (Manzullo), and Hastert’s old 14th (Hultgren). Between Roskam, Biggert, and Kinzinger, that area can be redrawn into 1 heavily GOP district, 1 eliminated district, and 1 district flooded with Chicago Rats. Joe Walsh in the 8th I think survives too, but they could technically crunch him too if they really want to.
That caps us 7. Dold loses, Biggert Retires, Roskam and Kinzinger are thrown together, and Schock and Schilling are thrown together.
They can really engage in some bs here. Happens due to Brady losing.
Where do you live?
If I were a Democrat, I would hope that they would try to eliminate Illinois’ most conservative congressman, Dan Manzullo. They could give parts of his district to the districts of Walsh, Hultgren, and Schiling. Manzullo would probably retire, and Democrats would think that they can defeat at least two of those other three Republicans, since all three of them will be in their first terms.
If Rep. Biggert retires, who should run for her seat? I hope that State Sen. Dillard would run and that Adam Andrzejewsi would run for Dillard’s state senate seat.
...sort of like Detroit, with fewer slums...(but just give it a little more time).
Coming to an America near you!
I don’t actually live in Illinois.
Fundamentally, there really is no difference between eliminating Manzullo and eliminating Schilling. The map is cleaner though if Schilling goes.
Biggert will likely be thrown in with Roskam, so I guess he will run for her seat.