Skip to comments.Democrats UNDER-Represented in Delaware Election. O’Donnell did not motivate Democrats
Posted on 12/28/2010 1:43:14 PM PST by Moseley
Democrats were apparently under-represented in Delawares US Senate race on November 2, 2010, according to CNN exit polls taken on election night.
Voter registration for Delawares 2010 election totaled
Democrats: 47 %.
Other & Independents: 23.5%
(Voter registration closed on October 9, 2010. Registration totals are as of October 21, 2010.)
However, actual voter turn out according to CNNs exit poll was:
Other & Independents: 27%
Thus Democrats were under-represented among the actual voters who turned out in the November 2 election.
Only 44% of actual voters were Democrats although 47% of all registered voters are Democrats. Republicans comprised 30% of actual voters while being only 29.4% of registered voters. (Because Democrat registration surged 11.2% between 2008 and 2010, a full 11.2% of Democrat registered voters are recently-registered and probably highly motivated to vote after recently registering.)
If CNNs exit poll data is accurate, the theory that Christine ODonnell energized Democrats to turn out and vote harming Delawares down ballot races is clearly false.
Democrats actually voted in numbers significantly less than their proportion among registered voters by 44% to 47%. Republicans voted in a slightly higher proportion than their voter registration by 30% to 29.4%. Therefore, Christine ODonnells presence on the November 2 ballot clearly did not drive Democrats to vote.
Two competing theories are being disputed about the US Senate race between Republican Christine ODonnell and Democrat Chris Coons. A major debate perhaps even a healthy debate is raging within the Republican Party of Delaware about the future of Republicans after the November 2, 2010.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
That stupid add where she said, “I’m not a witch”... What kind of response was that... IMO, wimpy, feel good, please like me response. Not what resonates with people who know what needs to be done in Washington.
No. She lost because of media attacks, Karl Rove attacks, and Delaware State Republican Party attacks.
The media managed to persuade a lot of voters that “even Republicans” thought she was a kook. Those Republicans in Name Only all being left-wingers and pork-grubbing, professional hacks.
I don’t no how many times it needs to be said that members of the party are welcome to take sides during the primary, but that when the primary is over they should either fall behind the candidate or shut up. They smashed this rule to pieces.
Most blame Karl Rove. If he can control elections certainly he is the most powerful politician in the country. I don’t think for a minute I would have any use for his opinion on who I vote for, but apparently many here thinks he has that ability to convince people to vote for who he wants or doesn’t want.
Rove has to take a big part of the blame for this defeat because she lost because of lack of republican support. Frankly, over the last 6 months it's shocking how many Republicans showed how badly they need to be retired next election cycle.
100% right on the mark.
Well said. People on our side sometimes bemoan our ‘bad’ or ‘weak’ candidates. Well if our candidates had the full-throated 24/7 MSM support the other side enjoys they’d look like *great* candidates—and if their side had the relentless attacks ours endure, their candidates would would ghastly.
I totally agree. Some of the posts remind me of the left ranting about “all powerful, evil, mastermind” Karl Rove during the Bush years. Does anyone, anywhere really care about Karl Rove’s opinion (outside his family and perhaps close friends)? Whenever I see or hear Rove, I think of The Wizard of Oz when the curtain is pulled back, and the tiny little man is revealed.
It’s very simple. Delaware voters had previously rejected COD, and they rejected her again.
Certainly not anymore.
“...but apparently many here thinks he has that ability to convince people to vote for who he wants or doesnt want.”
Do you really believe that Rove had minimal impact on the election? Are you aware of the childish temper tantrum he put on shortly after the primary? You think a person in his position saying what he said at the time he said it did not do O’Donnell any political damage?
Either you’re shilling for Rove-boy or you need to do some extra reading.
Karl Rove’s friends and “foes” are giving a lot of credit to Karl Rove.
He doesn’t deserve the credit.
The biggest takeaway based on the exit poll numbers is that
Obama motivated young black women to vote for the Democrat candidate. Black women were 14% of the voters.
So, Dems were 44% instead of 47%. Reps were 30% instead of 29%.
For weeks, all across the country, we were talking about a
enthusiasm gap, where Republicans voted and Democrats didn’t. We did not see this enthusiasm gap in Delaware.
Democrats were down a little in DE. Republicans were up a little in DE.
It had very little to do with Karl Rove. Karl Rove would like you to think he was powerful in the DE race. He was not. Obama was. Obama got the black women to the polls. And that was the biggest difference.
Christine won among whites. But there are a lot of blacks in DE. Instead of not voting, they definitely did vote and they voted for Coons. 95% of nonwhite Dems voted for Coons.
The 3 most important things in the DE race.
1) Obama helped turnout.
2) The DE Gop did not help with GOTV
3) Castle did not endorse.
Rove and the neocons were not an important factor, no matter how much they say they were.
It’s possible that if 1) Obama stayed home 2) the DE Gop helped with GOTV and 3) Castle did endorse and helped Christine, that the neocon negativity could’ve swung the race to Coons if the race was close. But the race was not close, and the numbers of people who actually like Karl Rove and the neocons in DE is a lot smaller than Karl Rove and his buddies would like you to think.
If you are going to take the party back from the establishment hacks, then by definition you are going to run less experienced people against wizened old veterans. Which means you will win some and you will lose some; its the nature of it.
And you are going to find your less-experienced candidate under attack by the party elite; thats guaranteed, since the elite are exactly the people you are trying to unseat.
I consider Delaware to be a win, in that we got rid of Castle. That was job one. ODonnell will live to fight another day. I’m not going to buy in on the elite’s spin about how running against Castle was a mistake; getting rid of guys like him (and exposing guys like Rove) is a large part of what we have to do to take this party back... from guys like Castle and Rove.
Your point is good. To me her decision simply meant she hadn’t been through the ringer enough to know when she’s being had. I’m sure this wised and toughened her up enough to know the feel good, treat me nice approach doesn’t work. I hope she makes another run.
just be glad she lost, she served her purpose and that was to not allow another Repub like Castle to join Collins and Snowe on the east coast Rockerfeller wing.
That said she would of been a disaster on the national level, for the umteempth time we need good candiadates that further conservatism like Rubio not ones like O’Donnell that cannot further intelligent conservatism.
O’Donnell lost because O’bummer and his minions brought in people from out of state to vote Democrat, under the cover of fraudulent voter registrations by ACORN and others. There’s no WAY Delaware gained that many Dems in a year.
What a remarkably stupid article.
O’Donnell lost the overall race by 16%.
The CNN Exit poll did find that 16% of Republicans voted for Coons.
HOWEVER, only 30% of those voting were Republicans;
Therefore, if EVERY Republican had voted for O’Donnell, she would have still lost by 11%.
When someone loses a race by 16%, and they had plenty of campaign cash, the reason they lost is - they couldn’t win.
I’d like to hear what the people who were here for Christine prior to the election have to say about this.
this thread was posted the day after the election and is a long thread about why Christine lost, and includes many posts from people who were paying attention prior to the election.
It’s certainly not all about Rove and the neocons.
But Demonrat insiders still think that having 'Mickey Mouse' vote in 17 precincts is a tough sell. But they would have pulled out that stop if needed. We need to train and vet candidates early - figure out who can win. Taking over some of the media would also help.
“Therefore, Christine ODonnells presence on the November 2 ballot clearly did not drive Democrats to vote.”
Well if that is true, then it is also true that Coons “clearly did not drive Democrats to vote”, because they voted in numbers below their number of registered voters. And, in the first place, wouldn’t it have been Coons JOB to “drive Democrats to vote”; not O’Donnells???
This is an article that tries to build a mountain out of a mole hill.
The REDSTATE blogger wants to convince us that its all D’Donnells fault because only 82% of GOPers, not 100%, voted for O’Donnell, in a state where her Liberal RINO primary opponent - Castle - has never been elected because of the GOP vote, but because he usually got so many Liberal Dim votes; in a state where they dominate among the 47% registered as Dims and the nearly 30% registered as independents.
“Therefore, the exit poll data shows that Republican defections to vote for the Democrat Coons were responsible for the Republican Party losing the US Senate seat from Delaware.”
This is bogus. For it to be true 100% of the GOPers would have, in an alternate universe, voted for Castle. But, the primary results, and the general preferences, indicate that Castle would have gotten less GOP votes than O’Donnell got, in the general election, with more than “18%” of GOPers staying home, instead of voting for the “other Liberal” - Castle.
All these arguments are a waste of time.
Coons won in an overwhelmingly Liberal-Left state because to the majority of voters he was neither the antithesis of their majority sentiments, nor was he the pretend RINO Liberal, Castle. To the majority (delusional Liberal majority) Coons was the “real deal” - all the way through the campaign.
The GOP did not loose because of O’Donnell. They lost because it was never theirs to win, in Delaware.
While I agree with the general thrust of your post, the CNN exit poll results pretty show that Castle probably would have won if he'd been the nominee; with 44% of those in the exit poll saying they would have voted for Castle, 42% for Coons, and 12% saying they wouldn't have voted.
Once anybody with any ties to the GOP started attacking Christine, it was all over for her. The GOP attacking the GOP helps the Democrats, ALWAYS, and it creates a ton of political damage towards the entire GOP, too!
Can you assert with a straight face that attacks from the GOP leadership changed the votes of more than 16% of the electorate in Delaware?
Incorrect math. O’Donnell held 84-16 edge with Republicans. That is a net 68%. If she had held 100-0 (impossible), the difference would be 30% x 32% = 9.6%, and she would have lost by 6.4%.
She didn’t spend her campaign cash wisely. But once Castle and Rove attacked her after the primary, O’Donnell was toast. If Castle and the Delaware establishment had backed her all the way, it would have been within 5%, either way. But they didn’t.
Analyze, and use that knowledge for the next time. In 2012, there will be a next time. Judging by housing prices recently, the economy is still in trouble. We have to be as patient and as persistent as the enemy.
Thanks for bringing that up (about Fred Davis angle).
She still should have told him “NO EFFING WAY”.
You can have all the geniuses around you, but ultimately YOU have to make the choices.
I can’t find ANYONE who thought that was the BEST ad possible in response to the stupid accusations at that point in time.
The thing that killed me about the stupid ad was, Christine was supposed to be ‘responding’ in a serious way about “I’m not a witch”, and she’s put in a ‘dark bluish’ background, with a black dark toned hair comb - basically telling everyone “I’m no witch (but lookeeee here, don’t I look like one?).
That’s 44% for Castle when Castle isn’t being attacked. It’s a fairly good guess to think that Coons would’ve attacked Castle if Castle was running. Castle’s numbers would’ve dropped if he was the actual candidate.
No Christine is not a high church member, but Karl Rove is!
Let me start with you.
That witch ad was a HUGE mistake. It’s certainly not why she lost, but it didn’t help.
O’Donnell’s campaign manager was the fellow who managed the campaign of NY’s Scuzzifava challenger. This is a guy who needs to go looking for different kind of work.
The notion was to try and be playful with the concept, while alternatively presenting O’Donnell as somber and serious.
All if ended up doing was keeping that ridiculous witch controversy front and center and keeping O’Donnell as the stuff of folly and silliness.
I’d rate that commercial as one of the top ten dumbest things of the year 2010.
Christine lost for a simple reason, more Delaware voters chose her opponent.
I will remind, once again as I do endlessly, that there was, at the same time, another contender for Delaware’s one and only Representative in the House, to replace Mike Castle in fact, who was running for the Senate.
This fellow, a very serious guy who ran a great campaign, not witch commercials, LOST BY THE EXACT SAME PERCENTAGE AS O’DONNELL!
His name was Glen Urquhart and both he and O’Donnell lost by a margin of 14%.
They both lost because Newcastle county, Delaware’s largest and most populace area, has Democrats almost 3 to 1 over the more conservative Kent and Sussex downstate areas.
Wilmington is extremely liberal, filled with union types, the welfare gang almost as big as Philadelphia...nearby by the way, and an enclave of Blue Blood GOP Ruling Class that didn’t support O’Donnell. Matter of fact, it’s where Mike Castle lives.
It’s true the Blue Blood Ruling Class GOP here in Delaware actively worked AGAINST O’Donnell but I’d not argue that this alone cost O’Donnell and Urquhart the race. The only way Castle won general elections all these years is WITH a huge amount of help from the Democrats. Delaware is one weird type of state. The very first tiime I stopped at the Georgetown GOP office, the lady at the desk told me, and I quote, “Democrats/Republicans...they’re all pretty much the same.”
I’d argue that perhaps the percentage of loss would have been much lower without the Delware GOP Blue Blood Ruling Class working AGAINST O’Donnell and Urquhart but I think they would have lost without that coalition of Dems and Repubs that got Biden and Castle elected for yay these many years.
Don’t forget, please, that Delaware’s GOP Chair, the fine, fine Tom Ross, said publicly, and I quote, that “O’Donnell couldn’t win Dog catcher.”
to those of you defending this guy, I’d suggest, softly, that even if Ross didn’t like O’Donnell at the least he COULD HAVE SAID NOTHING.
For now, we’re working like the dickens to have Ross officially censured cause you can argue and type at me all night but there’s nothing right by this.
It ain’t easy cause the Dems and the Repubs...hey, not much difference.
It could be, I dunno, that Sussex county, an area to the right of Atilla the Hun, just might have to accept this.
OR, as I intend to work on next year, overhaul that Blue Blood Ruling Class GOP and then get those cooperative Dems to work together to elect a candidate WE LIKE.
I’m willing to acknowledge that we might to go a bit more moderate than an Urquhart/O’Donnell but you’ll have to torture me all night to have me buy that we should have to live with the likes of Mike Castle who voted for Cap and Trade, AGAINST the Iraq surge, FOR the Dream act, and on and on and on......do NOT tell me this and stop justifying Castle’s existance.
Sure we got Coons the communist but every day I wake and breathe the clean fresh air of Delaware cause my enemy is my enemy RIGHT UP FRONT, not the guy supposed to be on my side.
The RINOS need to buck up and admit they pushed it too far and Castle was just one casualty of a bad strategy.
Thanks. Makes a lot of sense.
It’s good to hear from someone who knows what went on in DE.
It’s also important to note that the blue blood GOP ruling class is not the same thing as Karl Rove. People want to pretend that Karl Rove is super important in DE. He really isn’t. Castle and Ross and the blue bloods, country club Republicans, are important. 31% of the voters who had a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney voted for Coons. Only 9% of the voters who had a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin voted for Coons.
Good post, thanks.
So her 17 point beating was because of Rove and the Republican party, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans by 17%?
She might have lost 3-4 points from Rove and the Republican party, but the VAST majority of her loss was from being Christine O’Donnell...
I don’t believe the exit polls or the Delaware people than answered that way; I don’t believe their “what if” answer reflects what they would have done in the real world.
Coons was the “real deal”, Castle was the pretender who got-along to get-along (and win Dim votes) and O’Donnell was the outsider.
I don’t think the REAL majority vote was ever anyone’s but Coons.
A good place to start. The last time I heard that I was in Texas. I like it.
You keep posting that stuff about the high church, do you have a Protestant/Catholic vote breakdown for Delaware?
Think of certain classes of Lutherans and Epi-Scopals.
I'm being very careful in my use of this term since it does not ever apply to Catholics of any kind ~ just usually the guys who look down their noses at "emotional" folks.
Karl Rove is pretty typical of the bunch though you can actually find them even in groups like the Reverend Wright's type of Church of Christ. In fact Obama's wife was a Queen Bee over there, and if she was in almost any sort of church she'd try that trick anyway ~ probably most effectively as an Epi-Scopal.
The High Church folks are a penance Protestants pay for not being particular enough about the quality of the order of the service.
My point was that you keep posting about them and their vote in Delaware, I would like to see the numbers of the Protestant/Catholic vote in Delaware that you are basing the claims on, that you keep posting.
Good grief, 18% of the 30% Republican cohort in Delaware would be 6% of the total population ~ and Delaware had 123,025 Republican voters show up in November.
If Epi-Scopals and "progressive Lutherans" are to be estimated at 6% that'd been about 7500 more Republican voters, assuming these two traditions do ordinarily provide lots of Republican voters (due to their economic class more than anything else).
With those bodies having about 19,000 reported members in Delaware, and maybe 40% of them being adult voters ~ with some interest in politics, that'd be 7200 voting members, you find that the number of Republicans who sat out the vote or voted for Coons is pretty much equal to the number of probable Republican voters that can be found in the suspect congregations.
So, yeah, http://www.TheArda.com/ has enough information to come up with numbers to match my estimate of what happened.
Isn't that what you'd guess to be the case?
This was a real Protestant versus not-quite real Protestant dispute, and the not-quite real Protestants showed their a---- and voted for the Commie.
(BTW, that's a relative values thing)
So you don’t have any facts about the vote in Delaware and how it broke down by Protestant/Catholic, much less by each denomination.
A welfare check is the best way way to motovate a Democrat. That or let them believe they are stealing something.
That is the bottom line. The defeat of Castle has huge implications & it was absolutely required if conservatives are to take the lead.
Now, do you have a better explanation for why we had that many people just walk away?
Look, we've been finding this over and over in election after election. There are people who are members of a certain category of MainLine churches who are TOTALLY intolerant of holy rollers and fundamentalists. You can count on the Mainliners to walk away from them.
It's like setting a clock.
Now, why do you want numbers on Catholic voters? They weren't a problem that anyone could tell. Karl Rove's continued attacks suggests he was hearing all about it from the boys at church.
BTW, looking at Delaware's church census by denomination it wasn't the Methodists or the Baptists who walked away from her ~ she was, BTW, a formerly lapsed Catholic who has been back attending Catholic services for quite some time. Used to be your basic Baptist or Methodist wouldn't vote for a Catholic ~ but not they do ~ probably because so many Catholic candidates are Republican!
When you find the facts rather than your speculation then I will be interested, since you have been repeatedly posting it, I just assumed that you had the actual voting breakdown.
When Eliot Spitzer starts defending you, it ought to tell you you’ve made a BIG mistake. He starts right off making excuses for himself. I didn’t realize the guy was such a wuss. I sure hope COD learned some things during her run. I hope we see her again.. but a lot shrewder and ready to fight.
If you can't follow it don't worry about it. It's an absolutely vital method in political analysis.
I just demonstrated that the Republican party in Delaware can no longer trust Lutherans (ELCA) and Epi-Scopals to vote Republican as they have done traditionally since the advent of the Civil War. This is a serious problem since these two communities account for a major part of the country club Republicans who run and pay for party operations.
I doubt Republicans will win another statewide race in Delaware in this century (as long as those guys continue to play a part). The TEA Party probably ought to plan on taking over the whole operation while they're at it. Just clear those guys out of the operation.
You haven’t demonstrated anything except your ability to speculate, and then get hung up on it as meaningful.