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It's 'the hottest year on record', as long as you don't take its temperature (Hansen again )
The Telegraph ^ | Friday 07 January 2011 Log in | Register | Christopher Booker

Posted on 01/07/2011 9:47:42 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

Much of the data cited to support warmist claims is pure conjecture, says Christopher Booker


Dr James Hansen, of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies Photo: PA

We have lately heard much of the claim that 2010 will turn out to have been “the hottest year on record”. No one has done more to promote this belief than Dr James Hansen, head of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), responsible for one of the four main official global temperature records.

As reported by the US blogs Real Science and Watts Up With That, in a post headed “GISS temperatures out of line with the rest of the world”, the GISS record has in recent months been diverging wildly from the others. While three have shown global temperatures dropping sharply, by as much as 0.3C, the GISS figures (based, despite the link to Nasa, on surface temperatures) have shot up by 0.2C.

In a second post (“Hansen’s 'Hottest Year Ever’ is primarily based on fabricated data”), Real Science demonstrates that the parts of the world which GISS shows to be heating up the most are so short of weather stations that only 25 per cent of the figures are based on actual temperature readings. The rest are simply conjectured by GISS. This is not the first time Dr Hansen’s temperature record has come under expert fire. Three years ago, GISS was forced to revise many of its figures when it was shown that wholesale “adjustments” had been made, revising older temperatures downwards and post-2000 figures upwards.


(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Extended News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climate; climatechange; coal; cold; corruption; fraud; gas; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; hansen; hot; ice; obama; oil; snow; un
H/T to Climate Depot on this....not sure about the date....this may be from Dec 18, 2010.

My search didn't turn it up as previously posted....

1 posted on 01/07/2011 9:47:46 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: NormsRevenge; steelyourfaith; Grampa Dave; SierraWasp; tubebender; Carry_Okie; Brad's Gramma; ...

ping.


2 posted on 01/07/2011 9:48:48 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: xcamel; steelyourfaith; Tolerance Sucks Rocks

PING


3 posted on 01/07/2011 9:53:16 AM PST by Thunder90 (Fighting for truth and the American way... http://citizensfortruthandtheamericanway.blogspot.com/)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; enough_idiocy; meyer; Normandy; Whenifhow; TenthAmendmentChampion; Clive; ...
Thanx !

 


Beam me to Planet Gore !

4 posted on 01/07/2011 9:53:28 AM PST by steelyourfaith (ObamaCare Death Panels: a Final Solution to the looming Social Security crisis ?)
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To: Thunder90
Thanx Thunder90 !
5 posted on 01/07/2011 9:55:42 AM PST by steelyourfaith (ObamaCare Death Panels: a Final Solution to the looming Social Security crisis ?)
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To: All
Found this at Watts up With That?:

Do We Care if 2010 is the Warmist Year in History?

******************************************************************************************

Posted on by Ira Glickstein, PhD

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein
According to the latest from NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), 2010 is shaping up to be “the warmest of 131 years”, based on global data from January through November. They compare it to 2005 “2nd warmest of 131 years” and 1998 “5th warmest of 131 years”.

We won’t know until the December data is in. Even then, given the level of noise in the base data and the wiggle room in the analysis, each of which is about the same magnitude as the Global Warming they are trying to quantify, we may not know for several years. If ever. GISS seems to analyze the data for decades, if necessary, to get the right answer.

A case in point is the still ongoing race between 1934 and 1998 to be the hottest for US annual mean temperature, the subject of one of the emails released in January of this year by NASA GISS in response to a FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) request. The 2007 message from Dr. Makiko Sato to Dr. James Hansen traces the fascinating story of that hot competition. See the January WUWT and my contemporary graphic that was picked up by several websites at that time.

The great 1934 vs 1998 race for US warmest annual mean temperature. Ira Glickstein, Dec 2010.

[My new graphic, shown here, reproduces Sato's email text, including all seven data sets, some or all of which were posted to her website. Click image for a larger version.]

The Great Hot 1934 vs 1998 Race
1) Sato’s first report, dated July 1999, shows 1934 with an impressive lead of over half a degree (0.541ºC to be exact) above 1998.

Keep in mind that this is US-only data, gathered and analyzed by Americans. Therefore, there is no possibility of fudging by the CRU (Climategate Research Unit) at East Anglia, England, or bogus data from Russia, China, or some third-world country. (If there is any error, it was due to home-grown error-ists :^)

Also note that total Global Warming, over the past 131 years, has been, according to the IPCC, GISS and CRU, in the range of 0.7ºC to 0.8ºC. So, if 1934 was more than 0.5ºC warmer than 1998, that is quite a significant percentage of the total.

At the time of this analysis, July 1999, the 1998 data had been in hand for more than half a year. Nearly all of it was from the same reporting stations as previous years, so any adjustments for relocated stations or those impacted by nearby development would be minor. The 1934 data had been in hand for, well, 65 years (eligible to collect Social Security :^) so it had, presumably, been fully analyzed.

Based on this July 1999 analysis, if I was a betting man, I would have put my money on 1934 as a sure thing. However, that was not to be, as Sato’s email recounts.

Why? Well, given steadily rising CO2 levels, and the high warming sensitivity of virtually all climate models to CO2, it would have been, let us say inconvenient, for 1998 to have been bested by a hot golden oldie from over 60 years previous! Kind of like your great grandpa beating you in a foot race.

2) The year 2000 was a bad one for 1934. November 2000 analysis seems to have put it on a downhill ski slope that cooled it by nearly a fifth of a degree (-0.186ºC to be precise). On the other hand, it was a very good year for 1998, which, seemingly put on a ski lift, managed to warm up by nearly a quarter of a degree (+0.233ºC). That confirms the Theory of Conservation of Mass and Energy. In other words, if someone in your neighborhood goes on a diet and loses weight, someone else is bound to gain it.

OK, now the hot race is getting interesting, with 1998 only about an eighth of a degree (0.122ºC) behind 1934. I’m still rooting for 1934. How about you?

3) Further analysis in January 2001 confirmed the downward trend for 1934 (lost an additional 26th of a degree) and the upward movement of 1998 (gained an additional 21th of a degree), tightening the hot race to a 28th of a degree (0.036ºC).

Good news! 1934 is still in the lead, but not by much!

4) Sato’s analysis and reporting on the great 1934 vs 1998 race seems to have taken a hiatus between 2001 and 2006. When the cat’s away, the mice will play, and 1998 did exactly that. The January 2006 analysis has 1998 unexpectedly tumbling, losing over a quarter of a degree (-0.269ºC), and restoring 1934‘s lead to nearly a third of a degree (0.305ºC). Sato notes in her email “This is questionable, I may have kept some data which I was checking.” Absolutely, let us question the data! Question, question, question … until we get the right answer.

5) Time for another ski lift! January 2007 analysis boosts 1998 by nearly a third of a degree (+0.312ºC) and drops 1934 a tiny bit (-0.008ºC), putting 1998 in the lead by a bit (0.015ºC). Sato comments “This is only time we had 1998 warmer than 1934, but one [on?] web for 7 months.”

6) and 7) March and August 2007 analysis shows tiny adjustments. However, in what seems to be a photo finish, 1934 sneaks ahead of 1998, being warmer by a tiny amount (0.023ºC). So, hooray! 1934 wins and 1998 is second.

OOPS, the hot race continued after the FOIA email! I checked the tabular data at GISS Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C) today and, guess what? Since the Sato FOIA email discussed above, GISS has continued their taxpayer-funded work on both 1998 and 1934. The Annual Mean for 1998 has increased to 1.32ºC, a gain of a bit over an 11th of a degree (+0.094ºC), while poor old 1934 has been beaten down to 1.2ºC., a loss of about a 20th of a degree (-0.049ºC). So, sad to say, 1934 has lost the hot race by about an eighth of a degree (0.12ºC). Tough loss for the old-timer.

Analysis of the Analysis

What does this all mean? Is this evidence of wrongdoing? Incompetence? Not necessarily. During my long career as a system engineer I dealt with several brilliant analysts, all absolutely honest and far more competent than me in statistical processes. Yet, they sometimes produced troubling estimates, often due to poor assumptions.

In one case, prior to the availability of GPS, I needed a performance estimate for a Doppler-Inertial navigation system. They computed a number about 20% to 30% worse than I expected. In those days, I was a bit of a hot head, so I stormed over and shouted at them. A day later I had a revised estimate, 20% to 30% better than I had expected. My conclusion? It was my fault entirely. I had shouted too loudly! So, I went back and sweetly asked them to try again. This time they came in near my expectations and that was the value we promised to our customer.

Why had they been off? Well, as you may know, an inertial system is very stable, but it drifts back and forth on an 84 minute cycle (the period of a pendulum the length of the radius of the Earth). A Doppler radar does not drift, but it is noisy and may give erroneous results over smooth surfaces such as water and grass. The analysts had designed a Kalman filter that modeled the error characteristics to achieve a net result that was considerably better than either the inertial or the Doppler alone. To estimate performance they needed to assume the operating conditions, including how well the inertial system had been initialized prior to take off, and the terrain conditions for the Doppler. Change assumptions, change the results.

Conclusions

Is 2010 going to be declared warmest global annual by GISS after the December data comes in? I would not bet against that. As we have seen, they keep questioning and analyzing the data until they get the right answers. But, whatever they declare, should we believe it? What do you think?

Figuring out the warmest US annual is a lot simpler. Although I (and probably you) think 1934 was warmer than 1998, it seems someone at GISS, who knows how to shout loudly, does not think so. These things happen and, as I revealed above, I myself have been guilty of shouting at analysts. But, I corrected my error, and I was not asking all the governments of the world to wreck their economies on the basis of the results.

6 posted on 01/07/2011 10:00:54 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
From the comments to WUWT article...see post #6:

**********************************EXCERPT************************************

D. J. Hawkins says:

December 25, 2010 at 4:54 pm

I took a quick peek at the GISS website to try and understand how they crank out their numbers, and even a cursory glance was daunting. Has there been a clear presentation of the methodology somewhere? I would think that once you nail down the method, no matter how many times you run the analysis the results should be the same. If the assumptions regarding initial conditions are so fungible as to allow a reversal of the relative values of the anomolies at will, you don’t have a scientific analytical tool, you have a propoganda tool.

7 posted on 01/07/2011 10:06:36 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Anyone that wishes to use this graphic, have at it.


8 posted on 01/07/2011 10:06:36 AM PST by Navy Patriot (Sarah and the Conservatives will rock your world.)
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To: All
More from the comments ...see post #6:

********************************EXCERPT*********************************************

Mike Davis says:

December 25, 2010 at 5:01 pm

The method for analyzing temperatures means the records remain fluid Because this is done with a model each time the model is rerun you will get different results for all periods. This is not like a spreadsheet where the records are fixed once the output is complete as they would be following accounting practices. Using three decimal points when they are starting with whole numbers is also cheating. The end result is that we do not know what the temperature has done for the last one hundred and fifty years!

9 posted on 01/07/2011 10:09:07 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Manmade climate change!!! OH NO!!

We must destroy the oil and coal industries!

What? This will also destroy free market private sector capitalism?

Is it just a coincidence that those who promote this hoax are leftist, American hating anti-capitalist.

War is currently being waged against America as it was founded, whether you want to believe it or not.


10 posted on 01/07/2011 10:09:53 AM PST by reaganator
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To: Navy Patriot

Thanks for the Great Graphic....


11 posted on 01/07/2011 10:10:18 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Maybe he needs to adjust his thermostat if he thinks it’s still warming.


12 posted on 01/07/2011 10:13:01 AM PST by SouthTexas (Is it time for tea yet?)
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To: reaganator
Right!

From the comments see post #6:

********************************************EXCERPT******************************************

Mark Luedtke says:

December 25, 2010 at 5:01 pm

“But, whatever they declare, should we believe it? What do you think?”

Absolutely not. Hansen isn’t a scientist. He’s a political activist masquerading as a scientist.


13 posted on 01/07/2011 10:13:23 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Hansen is a busy Goddard wizard, brewing a pot of warming potion for the scientific dictatorship. Hansen labors to keep the masses in a trance, but they keep waking up. What will he do next?


14 posted on 01/07/2011 10:16:54 AM PST by pallis
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To: All
From the comments at #6:

*****************************************EXCERPT***************************************

A C of Adelaide says:

December 25, 2010 at 5:51 pm

It may seem obvious but I have never seen it explicitly stated so I say it here. It seems to me that there are five completely independent ways to become a sceptic.

1/ Science A person can examine the science of AGW theory and become sceptical of the science.
2/ Predictions. A person can take the science purely at face value but become sceptical when the measured global temperatures can be seen to not match those predictions.
3/ Data sets. A person can become a sceptic by simply losing confidence in the global temperature data sets by noticing the uncertainties in the data collection and “corrections”
4/ Dirty Tricks A person could rationally ignore the science and ignore the temperature graphs and become sceptical solely on the basis of the known fraud, dirty tricks and bad faith of some of the main AGW crew. Lost of trust
5/ Money It would be totally rational to be sceptical of a group of scientists funded by (say) the tobacco industry and consider any of the out put possibly lacking independence. Similarly, it would be entirely rational to become sceptical of a group of scientists who are openly competing for grant money from pro-global warming funding bodies. One does not need to understand science to understand conflict of interest.

The science is the most difficult and demanding pathway so I think many people wouldn’t come at it directly from this route – which would explain the AGW frustration that no one is listening to their “science is settled” mantra anymore. There are so many easier routes by which they have lost credibility. (I note it may also explain why less educated people are less impressed by the “science is settled” mantra)

My own personal route to scepticism for example came first through pathway 4, through first doubts after the release of the Climategate emails, to outright scepticism after reading the Case Study 12 from D’Aleo and Watts (2010) “Hide this after Jim checks it” which you allude to. The idea that you can make undocumented changes to “raw” data and still call it “raw” was quite shocking.

I guess due to pathways 3, 4 and 5 this “hottest year ever” nonsense has lost traction.

15 posted on 01/07/2011 10:19:34 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

That was an excellent comment. Sanity and reality and true scientific understanding.

I get sick of the irresponsible shouting by many on both sides.


16 posted on 01/07/2011 10:22:33 AM PST by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Coldest year in 350 years according to the Brits.


17 posted on 01/07/2011 10:22:39 AM PST by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: <1/1,000,000th%
Well..they were just in the wrong spot...somewhere else it is much hotter...Hansen will make the neccessary adjustments...../s
18 posted on 01/07/2011 10:27:13 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

This flaming political hack is not worthy of being associated with Goddard’s name and legacy.


19 posted on 01/07/2011 10:28:17 AM PST by relictele
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To: All
More...from comments to article at post #6:

*************************************EXCERPT**************************************

Note;---Onion seems to be a defender of AGW....

********************************

Sam Parsons says:

December 25, 2010 at 7:28 pm

Onion Quotes Hansen:
“However, there have been changes of the time of observation by many of the cooperative weather observers in the United States [Karl et al., 1986]. Furthermore, the change has been systematic with more and more of the measurements by United States cooperative observers being in the morning, rather then the afternoon. This introduces a systematic error in the monthly mean temperature change.”

The problem solved was created by sheer idiocy and the solution compounds the idiocy. The problem solved is that persons who recorded temperatures did not do so at the same time. The fact that such a problem exists shows that the persons in charge of collecting data really did not give a damn about the data or they would trained their data collectors properly. Because they did not train regarding time of day, they probably did not train them regarding citing. In other words, for lack of uniform standards, the data is sh*t. It always has been and always will be. But rather than admit that his glorious science is based on worthless data, what does Hansen do? He decides that he will correct all those time of day recording errors in one fell swoop.
Fortunately for Hansen, it is possible to do this because the error are systematic; that is, everyone who made the error made exactly the same error! Lucky Hansen and lucky us! He will use a little program that he wrote and that will make everything hunkey dorey.

Onion, you cannot possibly believe this b*llsh*t. Were you never conned out of your lunch money by an older kid at school? You know, the kind of kid who just takes pride in being sleazy and bullying younger kids. Hansen writes in exactly the same way that the school yard con artist talks.


20 posted on 01/07/2011 10:30:21 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

One thing many people outside of science (and even within science) fail to understand about potential bias. Bias may exist even without any data faking whatsoever.

Research may yield results that are only part of a larger picture, and, indeed, looking like the opposite of the overall picture. Jokes about this are common with medical research.

If researchers know they will receive funding only if their results are favorable to one side, they will not choose research topics that could possibly yield a confounding result. Therefore, none of the studies are done that could refute the preconceived outcome.

On the other hand, it is my personal belief that this is not all that is going on with Dr. Hansen. He should be removed from his position and replaced by a scientist.


21 posted on 01/07/2011 10:30:38 AM PST by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: All
This comment...lengthy from someone who did some major work:

***************************************EXCERPT********************************************

E.M.Smith says:

December 25, 2010 at 9:42 pm

D. J. Hawkins says: I took a quick peek at the GISS website to try and understand how they crank out their numbers, and even a cursory glance was daunting.

Yup. Put me off for about 2 years. I kept saying “SOMEBODY needs to look at this!”… then one day I realized “I am somebody.”

I’ve downloaded it to a Linux box and got it to run. It ‘has issues’ but I figured out how to get past them. Details on request and posted on my web site. It required a long slow pass through the code…

Has there been a clear presentation of the methodology somewhere?

No.

There has been a lot of presentation of the methodology. Much of it is in technical papers that present a method, that is used in the code, but the code does more than (or sometimes less than, or sometimes just somewhat different from) what the papers describe.

It’s a convoluted complicated beast. Starter guide here:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/gistemp/

I would think that once you nail down the method, no matter how many times you run the analysis the results should be the same.

You would think that. I thought that. It’s not that…

The code is designed in such a way that EVERY time you run it (with any change of starting data AT ALL) you will get different results. And both the GHCN and USHCN input data sets change constantly. Not even just monthly, but even mid-month things just ‘show up’ changed in the data sets.

So to talk about “what GIStemp does” at any point in time requires specification of the “Vintage” of data used TO THE DAY and potentially to the hour and minute.

Why?

Infill of missing data, homogenizing via the “Reference station method”, UHI via the “Reference Station Method”. Grid / Box anomaly calculation that uses different sets of thermometers in the grid/box at the start and end times (so ANY change of data in the recent “box” can change the anomalies…) and some more too…

If the assumptions regarding initial conditions are so fungible as to allow a reversal of the relative values of the anomolies at will, you don’t have a scientific analytical tool, you have a propoganda tool.

Can I quote you on that? It’s rather well said…

IMHO, the use of “Grid / Box anomalies” (calculated AFTER a lot of data manipulation, adjustment, averaging , homogenizing, etc done on monthly temperature averages…) mixed with changing what thermometers are in a “grid / box” in the present vs. the past lets you “tune” the data such that GIStemp will find whatever warming you like. It’s cleverly done (or subtile enough they missed the “bug”… being generous) and if a good programmer devotes about 2 years to it they can get to this point of understanding. Everyone else is just baffled by it. Draw your own conclusions…

I’ve tried explaining it to bright folks. A few ‘get it’. Most just get glazed. Some become hostile. I’ll explain it to anyone who wants to put in the time, but it will take a couple of weeks (months if not dedicated) and few folks are willing to ‘go there’.

Judging from the look of the code, it was written about 30 years ago and never been revisited (just more glued on, often ‘at the end’ of the chain). From that I deduce that either Hansen is unwilling to change “his baby” or very few folks are willing to shove their brains through that particular sieve …

The bottom line is that “the GIStemp code” is DESIGNED to never be repeatable and to constantly mutate the results as ANY input data changes and that makes ALL the output shift. It’s part of the methodology in the design. Don’t know if that’s “malice” or “stupidity”…

It is my assertion that this data sensitivity is what GIStemp finds when it finds warming. The simple fact that as new data is added the past shifts to a warmer TREND indicates to me that the METHOD induces the warming, not the actual trend in the data. I’ve gone through the data a LOT and find 1934 warmer than 1998 and with a method that IS repeatable. See:

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/dtdt/

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/category/ncdc-ghcn-issues/

Basically, 1934 and 1998 ought to stay constant relative to EACH OTHER even as new data is added even IF you were ‘adjusting the past cooler’ to make up for something or other (nominaly UHI or TOBS – yes, I know, it sounds crazy to make the past cooler for UHI correction, but it’s “what they do” in many cases).

As it is, they jockey for relative position with a consistent, though stochastic, downward drift of the older relative to the newer. That tells me it’s the method, not the data, that’s warming.


22 posted on 01/07/2011 10:43:26 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Gondring

See #22.


23 posted on 01/07/2011 10:44:21 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
More from the comments to article at post #6:

********************************EXCERPT***************************************

Cassandra King says:

December 25, 2010 at 10:10 pm

In the USSR and its slave satellite subject regions that I visited in the early 80s the ordinary unconnected people would look at the state broadcasts of record grain harvests and then look at the massive queues for what tiny quantities of bread was available, the people could easily see the ‘truth deficit’.

The state/establishment/ruling parasite class is desperate to sell the idea of CAGW, so desperate are they that like the USSR they have turned to telling ever bigger lies and deceptions. The gap between the observations of ordinary people and what they are told has reached breaking point, henceforth we will see ordinary people acting like those of the USSR, they will not believe anything the lying regime says whether its true or not. Trust has broken down, the bonds of trust between the political class and the people is broken, we know the political class and their stooge Lysenko’s are lying through their teeth.

The political class need CAGW whether its real or not, it allows them to control carbon and control the masses, it allows the rich to become richer and the powerful to become more powerful. The CAGW fraud is plan A, I can only imagine that a plan B would be a nightmare.

24 posted on 01/07/2011 10:56:55 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
More :

****************************************EXCERPT******************************************

E.M.Smith says:

December 25, 2010 at 9:55 pm

Onion says: So this race between 1934 and 1998 was in the US temperature record, that comprises 2% of the Earth’s surface.

Um, no.

The article is a little unclear on that point, but the details are rather devilish, so I’d give them some slack on the details. The reality is rather complex…

GISS uses a code called GIStemp. It is that US CODE that is finding 1998 warmer than 1934 (sometimes).

GIStemp takes as input BOTH the USHCN (USA only data) and the GHCN (Global Historical Climate Network – whole world data). Except that between about Noveber of 2010 and about 2007? it took in the USHCN but only used it up to 2007. Then in November it suddenly started using all of it (having finally added the code to use the newer version)… EXCEPT that the new version of USHCN was all different from the old version (warmer) so direct comparisions of old and new GIStemp are not, er, “valid”? “reasonable”?

OK, in the first step of GIStemp, it does a garbled “half averaging” of USHCN and GHCN but only for the USA stations. Each, you see, has a different ‘adjustment history’ so it tries to undo some of the adjustments in one and put in the adjustments from the other, except where it only has one, then it just uses whatever one it has, adjustments that don’t match and all.

Oh, and it fills in missing data by making it up.

N0, honest. It is called “The Reference Station Method” and it is used both to press fit the data to look like what they think it ought to be (called ‘homogenizing’) and to fill in missing bits with what they think would look nice and fit in well.

THEN that mush goes on the following steps (that are detailed in the links I gave above for anyone courageous enough to ‘go there’).

So, “onion”, they use the whole global data set. It’s just what they DO with it that’s, er, odd.


25 posted on 01/07/2011 11:05:01 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: reaganator
See this thread....from a Hansen protege:

NOAA Climate Scientist: “We Need to Do Whatever We Can to Reduce Population”

Access to a 1 minute Video.

26 posted on 01/07/2011 11:25:11 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

So.... from what I’ve seen, experienced, and read, it would seem that given the margin of error, The AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE has not really changed at all.


27 posted on 01/07/2011 11:28:12 AM PST by UCANSEE2 (Lame and ill-informed post)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
25 per cent of the figures are based on actual temperature readings. The rest are simply conjectured by GISS.

This is called fraud.
28 posted on 01/07/2011 11:29:29 AM PST by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the occupation media. There are Wars and Rumors of War.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

“Paging Dr. Lorenz....”


29 posted on 01/07/2011 11:30:23 AM PST by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I wonder how much cash under the table Dr James Hansen makes?

Untaxed cash is a great perk to buy someone.

30 posted on 01/07/2011 11:37:01 AM PST by TYVets
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

It will be interesting in the days to come to see how the 112 Congress decide the value of funding the GISS activities.


31 posted on 01/07/2011 12:53:36 PM PST by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned....)
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To: Navy Patriot
thx..
32 posted on 01/07/2011 2:41:19 PM PST by Chode (American Hedonist - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: UCANSEE2
So.... from what I’ve seen, experienced, and read, it would seem that given the margin of error, The AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE has not really changed at all.

And it is a poor metric to use to analyze the total heat energy (heat content) of the Earth's Biosphere. The atmospheric temperature at 2,000 feet above sea level is not equivalent in heat energy to the atmospheric temperature at sea level. This is simply due to density differences. The atmospheric temperature of humid air with a high density of water vapor is not equivalent in heat energy to dry air with less water vapor. Same with air containing moisture. Same with air containing fog.

So they are using the wrong metric combined with poor procedures and biased with political beliefs. Thus, they have ended up claiming the Earth is warming and the hottest ever, while the UK and South Florida experienced their coldest December in recorded history. In other words, the AGW crowd got it 180 degrees wrong.

33 posted on 01/07/2011 3:56:15 PM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: justa-hairyape
I like the way you say that:

the AGW crowd got it 180 degrees wrong.

34 posted on 01/07/2011 6:28:51 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: justa-hairyape

And those are just the monumental problems with the way they measure the temps in the atmosphere. The far larger elephant in the middle of the room is the average temp of all the water in the oceans. With a herd of smaller elephants following behind such as fresh water, the ice caps, the earth’s crust, geo-thermal activity ... All massive quantities of material that have their own heat carrying capacity.


35 posted on 01/07/2011 7:16:06 PM PST by TigersEye (Who crashed the markets on 9/28/08 and why?)
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To: TigersEye
And we will need some very accurate metrics to properly determine the trend of the worlds ocean heat content. Just a change of 1 hundredth of a degree F in the deep ocean can be very significant. We are a few decades away from even knowing the significant variables and perhaps a hundred years away from having the required metrics to gauge those variables accurately. Until then I would suggest picking a smaller region with a known history that could approximate the overall trend in the planets heat content.

Since we are dealing with a majority water planet, would suggest a maritime environment. Perhaps a small to medium sized island or peninsula. For example the UK or Florida. If we utilize those, we just experienced the coldest December in the modern recorded era. Which of course explains the record number of Manatee deaths last year in Florida and all the other live stock problems in the UK/Florida last year.

36 posted on 01/07/2011 9:44:24 PM PST by justa-hairyape
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

“Absolutely not. Hansen isn’t a scientist. He’s a political activist masquerading as a scientist.”

I wonder if someone has come up with the term “armchair scientist”. Because whether or not someone else has, I’d say it right now, given the way I have seen Hansen shout from his cozy spaces right now. I would say to a climate scientist, come give me a gadget to melt some ice, and end my holiday holdup in the Phoenix, Arizona airport for crying out loud. Anyway, that’s my rant.


37 posted on 01/08/2011 7:53:52 PM PST by Morpheus2009 (A brave man only has to die once)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

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38 posted on 01/10/2011 8:43:43 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (up)
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To: Morpheus2009

“I wonder if someone has come up with the term “armchair scientist””
_______________________________________

That is one good term, but the AGW cabal has at least three
branches, or groups.
1. Thieves that are in it for the money and fame.
Albert Goreon is the prime example of this group.
2. Control freaks. This includes the neo-Marxist, Democrats,
and any other group that wants control of people’s lives.
This includes the “nanny state” types.
3. The self important types and pseudo scientist.
Sadly, even FR has some of these.
I well remember one, I will not mention his FR name,
but he was constantly posting pages of graphs and data
to support AGW.

The general public around the world is certainly devided
and range from doom and gloomers, to those that see it as a scam.
Whenever I encounter one of the doom and gloomers, I always start by asking them to explain the MWP, followed by the little ice age.
Most have no clue as to what I am asking about.

Sadly, the real climate or weather will not likely dissuade
the first two groups, as they have too much invested in
continuing the scam.


39 posted on 01/10/2011 9:53:38 PM PST by AlexW
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

bump. good article!


40 posted on 01/14/2011 7:53:52 AM PST by FBD (My carbon footprint is bigger than yours)
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