Skip to comments.U.S. DNI, DIA on the defensive over major China J-20 intelligence failure
Posted on 01/23/2011 10:25:45 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
The U.S. Congress is considering an investigation into the U.S. intelligence agencies estimates of China's development of a new stealth jet, the J-20, that was flight tested for the first time last week.
The director of the Office of Naval Intelligence, Vice Adm. David Dorsett told reporters that speed of the development had been underestimated. Dorsett said the emergence of the J-20 was not a surprise but that U.S. intelligence underestimated "the speed at which they are making progress."
Several days later Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates confirmed that U.S. intelligence agencies underestimated China's progress in developing a new stealth jet fighter. Speaking to reporters en route to Beijing, Gates said U.S. intelligence has been closely monitoring China's development of a fifth-generation jet, and "watching these developments all along." "We knew they were working on a stealth aircraft," he said. "I think that what we've seen is that they may be somewhat further ahead in the development of that aircraft than our intelligence had earlier predicted."
Critics of U.S. intelligence on China have said Beijing's development of new missiles, submarines, aircraft and anti-satellite and cyberwarfare weapons have been underestimated by U.S. analysts for more than a decade.
The issue of the J-20 development is strategically significant because in July 2009 Gates canceled further production of the world's only fifth-generation fighter, the Air Force F-22, because China was "projected to have no fifth-generation aircraft by 2020" and would have only a "handful" by 2025, compared to about 1,700 less capable U.S. F-35s.
The F-22, the world's only deployed fifth generation fighter, was developed in part for use in a possible future conflict with China. It has the capability to deliver weapons deep inside of China while avoiding air defenses and cruising at supersonic speeds for longer periods than less capable jets.
(Excerpt) Read more at east-asia-intel.com ...
Unfortunately, it is well known that the CIA is full of liberal intellectuals, and has been for years.
This is just the latest “mistake” they have made.
I call them “intended mistakes.”
The good thing is that the J-20 does not appear to be as agile as the F-22. It’s vertical stabilizers are shorter and the fuselage appears to be longer.
It has the capability to deliver really tiny weapons deep inside China. The only strike role the F-22 has is for high threat SEAD, taking out SAM sites with little 250 lb. JDAM.
If somebody thinks it is capable of a strike mission, that would explain why they think we need more of these and don't need the JSF. We do need more F-22s, but we also need JSF.
If one has to get cut, then it will have to be the F-22 and we better hope we don't have to fight China.
It’s easy to put something together when you stole it from someone else.
China owns us in every way. And what they cant buy, they steal. Sadly we are chinas bi)$@.
Here we go again...
While I’m sure the Rats will blame it on George W. Bush, it’s funny how they don’t tie the blindness that allowed the 9/11 attacks to happen to Bill Clinton.
If an ICBM with MIRV can send a cluster of nukes, why can’t it also send a cluster of conventional bombs?
If an ICBM with MIRV can send a cluster of nukes, why cant it also send a cluster of conventional bombs?
“When you care enough to only send the very best....”
An ICBM would be a most expensive way to disburse conventional bombs. Using a set of multiple Cruise Missles with MIRV capability could wreck havoc on china C&C and there is little doubt our folks have been working on such a Cruiser.
All these “we’re doomed as doomed can be” white flaggers who are ready to give up just looking at a J20 photo, are fooling.
Suspecting there is a lot more to stealthy than meets the slanty eye.
Should I be concerned with estimates of 3-5 years for Iran's nukes?
Too many people looked at the Chinese and thought of the days of the Cultural Revolution. They looked at Iran and though of primitive camel jockeys.
Trident II (D5) CEP = 120m
Minutemann III (LGM-30) CEP = 150m
I.e. can’t home in close enough?
Worse, the missiles cost multiple million $$$, and the assembly lines closed a long time ago. They're expenseive, irreplaceable assets which would not deliver the conventional weapon close enough to do any good. Cruise missiles are a much better option; accurate enough, much less expensive and still in production.
That is why no nation would risk using conventional strike ICBMs even with the advantages they have, and why the US and Russia are investing in hypersonic cruise missiles at MUCH greater cost and complexity. You cannot afford a misunderstanding, unless you are certain the other guy will chicken. However, if you are wrong, it's your @$$ (and that of your fellow American/Russian/French/Chinese/British/Israeli citizens).
For instance, you couldn't use such a weapon against China or Russia without risking an immediate nuclear retaliation. I think that would also be an issue if you were to use a hypersonic possible trans-atmospheric weapon, like the Air Force wants to produce. You are really going to have a limit on who you can use it against for fear of a nuclear response.
That being said it might be nice to have such a weapon if you found out that Osama bin Laden was going to be at location x for the next half hour. Deliverable anywhere in the world in 20 minutes. It would be faster than even the most psychotic Domino's driver.
Hmm are there means of telling whether a given ICBM is carrying something radioactive while it’s still way out there?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.