Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Romney Holds Slight Edge Over Huckabee and Palin (Romney 24, Palin 19, Huckabee 17)
Posted on 01/24/2011 2:10:12 PM PST by SeekAndFind
History tells us that primary races are all about name recognition at this early stage, and right now, not surprisingly the best-known Republican hopefuls are running ahead among likely party primary voters.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads the pack with the support of 24% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the partys nominee for vice president in 2008, runs second with 19%, closely followed by Mike Huckabee with 17%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas who now hosts a program on the Fox News network, and Romney were both unsuccessful contenders for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008. The new findings are no surprise since the top three vote-getters have been running closely in surveys for months. None of the seven prominent Republicans we asked primary voters about has officially declared that they are running for the partys presidential nomination.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich comes in fourth with 11% support. Tim Pawlenty, who recently stepped down as governor of Minnesota, earns six percent (6%) of the primary vote, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at four percent (4%) and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels with three percent (3%). Six percent (6%) like some other candidate, and 10% are undecided given this list.
People shouldnt assume that the partys eventual nominee will come from among the early frontrunners, Scott Rasmussen notes. Lots of candidates, like lots of baseball teams, look good on paper, but you dont win the nomination on paper. You win by going to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and convincing small groups of people in living rooms to follow you.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on January 18, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
For context, its interesting to note that four years ago at this time, everyone knew Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008. Rasmussen Reports surveying was the first to show Barack Obama making his move, but that didnt begin until April 2007. Similarly, John McCain never led any national polling on the 2008 GOP nomination until Rasmussen Reports showed him ahead on December 31, 2007.
In November, just after the midterm elections, it was a dead heat between Romney, Huckabee and Palin as far as primary voters were concerned. In October 2009, when likely Republican primary voters were given a choice of five potential presidential nominees, Huckabee led with 29% support, followed by Romney with 24% of the vote and Palin at 18%.
Theres little difference of opinion now between male and female primary voters.
Palin leads among Tea Party members with 28% support. Romneys the favorite among non-members with 32% of the vote.
Romney, Palin and Huckabee are essentially in a three-way tie among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. Those who characterize themselves as somewhat conservative and moderate/liberal have a clear preference for Romney.
Romney holds the lead among married and unmarried primary voters, but Palin is slightly ahead among those who have children living with them.
Palin and Huckabee are neck-and-neck among evangelical Christians. Other Protestants, Catholics and those of other religions like Romney better.
Roughly one-quarter to one-third of Republican primary voters said in early November that they would be inclined to consider a third-party candidate if any of the current favorites wins the GOP presidential nomination for 2012.
See here :
Crap! Ron Paul’s Paulhriods cannot skew this poll.
MOST IMPORTANT POINT: At the end of the day
Romney? Romney is NOT even in the picture.
Take out the Huckster and Palin wins.
What he said!
“Take out the Huckster and Palin wins.”
That is true even if Newt would get half of his votes. How can anyone think Huck is a strong candidate???
In other news, Birch Bayh, Milton Shapp, George Wallace and Lloyd Bentsen all lead Jimmy Carter in Gallup January, 1975 poll.
Phil Gramm,Pat Buchanan and Lamar Alexander lead Bob Dole in 1995 CNN survey.
Gary Hart front-runner for 1988 Dem nomination, states Washington Post Poll (February, 1987).
John Kerry in single digits and spending his own dough as Howard Dean establishes fund-raising and polling lead thanks to ground breaking Internet campaign!
IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL A DAMN THING!
IMO, there is NO WAY any of those 3 will be the Republican nominee is 2012
The only poll that counts is at the election.
There is NO WAY that I am going to vote for NittWitt Mitt....
NO WAY EVER!
No doubt the numbers are correct, it's just the timing and the demo.
There's only one person in that list that has the opposition's attention and they are doing everything to marginalize her. Let them keep trying, it only makes the build up to her active campaigning stronger.
They are pulling back the slingshot, inch by inch with these polls and pronouncements of inability to win.
Oh, am I allowed to use slingshot metaphors now?
RE: Herman Cain
Has he totally beaten cancer?
I’m going to take flak for this. I like Sarah Palin I really do but if we nominate her as a candidate for president we will lose. No do over, no second chance. Even if every republican voted for her (and there are plenty who wouldn’t quite a few of them on this board) independents would not they would go to a third party of crawl back into barrys arms. I can see her being placed highly in the administration but not as president. Give it twelve years then we’ll talk.
I've been told by other FReepers in no uncertain terms not to question Rasmussen. So let's take this as gospel. If Romney is #1 among Republicans, it is due to them listening to the media libels against Sarah Palin. And it is due to their own ignorance of Romney's love affair with statism (Romneycare, gun-grabbing, etc). If Romney is selected as the candidate, I will write Palin on the ballot.
RE: I can see her being placed highly in the administration but not as president. Give it twelve years then well talk.
1) Why are you so sure independents won’t vote for her?
2) What’s the reason for the 12 years magic number above?
Well, I don't care; I will never vote for another statist RINO ever again. Either I write Palin on the ballot, or I stay home.
We're probably going to have a civil way anyway, no matter who wins.
I know I'll never cast a vote for him. I would rot in the gutters of hell first.
Most of the independents I talk to don’t like her. Just my own experience she’s been so nastily painted in the media that it seeps into the collective unconscious. While some independents would quite a few others wouldn’t. Not to mention the dissent within the republican party. Twelve years gives her time to solidify support amongst the base and the American people. Hopefully it will also give time for the media frenzy to go away as well.
Stepping down as governor of Alaska, the reality tv show, are all weapons the libs could bring against her. Maybe twelve years is too long of a time maybe in the 2016 election. Regardless I know in my gut if we put her on the ballot we would lose. If she came up I’d vote for her but I wouldn’t give her odds on being elected.
I’d love to be proven wrong but there you are.
We are making a huge mistake to worry about this now, as opposed to Obama’s daily treasonous activities.
I’m Independent and I like Sarah Palin,however I don’t believe,considering the polarization around her, that she could win.
Well, that is all very well and good, but if she declares (and I hope she will), she will be able to state her case and sell herself.
People will see the real Sarah Palin and the collective spin of the media that has become the perception of her will fade.
I think she has the best chance. Polarizing though she may be, she has the ability to motivate and excite the electorate and she would be a great president.
You know who was even more ‘polarizing’ than Governor Palin?
Ronald Reagan. He was also a dimwitted B movie actor who wanted nuclear war! An amiable dunce, but not someone who could be trusted with the nuclear button.
Funny, his poll numbers were worse than Governor Palin’s too..oh yeah, and the establishment Republicans hated him and his ‘voodoo economics.’
Yet he was able to win in a landslide.
do you know why?
Because this country is a majority conservative country, and given a choice of a real conservative, they will win every time.
Now I admit, there is a pretty strong media campaign against Palin, but don’t fall for it.
They are trying to SWAY public opinion with these poll results, not reflect reality.
You will see...
Once we are foolish enough to dismiss Sarah because of the so-called polarization and another conservative candidate emerges as a front runner, all the negative stuff that’s been concentrated on Sarah would slide smoothly over to the next conservative.
Romney is probably the only one they wouldn’t savage. The next McCain
If you want that to happen, listen to the fear mongers and desert Sarah.
I hope you’re wrong. Cause I won’t vote for Huck, Mitt, or Newt. And I suspect there are a lot of people that won’t.
So unless you get someone like Demint, you’re going to have a lot of people write in Palin’s name.
To be safe, better switch to spit wad metaphors.
I dunno. I hope if she gets nominated that you are right.
As I recall, there were supportive Democrats enough to elect President Reagan,also I don’t recall him being so relentlessly ridiculed and otherwise villianized by the media and the left in general as Sarah Palin has been.
Also,if memory serves correctly,President Reagan was a Democrat earlier in his life,which might have had a unifying influence in his election.
The polarization factor is a manufactured Press gimmick. It will suppress her numbers and frighten grandmothers only so long as they don’t get called out on the scam. There will be a right time and place for the confrontation, patience is the name of the game.
Some of and perhaps much of the negative I agree would slide over. However,consider that Sarah Palin is not only being criticized by the left. People such as my elderly mother-in-law,who generally votes conservatively, disapprove of her because they think a woman with young children should stay home and take care of their children.
That’s something I haven’t seen in discussions of her prospective candidacy yet,but there are people who feel that way. I realize I’m bringing up some negatives about Sarah Palin as a prospective candidate. I do like her and would vote for her,however,I don’t believe she would win.
Can we get a new set of candidates. I don’t like any of these.
People hate ObamaCarem, will not vote for creator of RomneyCare!
No one can beat Sarah!
I won’t let the Democrats pick our candidate again.
PALIN is who they are most afraid of.
Run Baby Run!
Because it's a zottable offense.
They are here though.Checking posts from certain posters from the 2008 primaries, they were Mitt Bots then and some are still here. The ones I checked were Mormons, who now realize that voicing support for Romney on F.R. will get them banned.
Long time members are not exempt, 2 or 3 nights ago a Mitt Bot was banned - 2002 sign on date.
It's like Obama and black voters, inseparable forever, one based on race and the other based on religion.
I won't declare that all Mormons are Romney supporters but 99% would be a good ball park estimate. They've learned to keep quiet about it, that is why you rarely see a supportive statement for Romney.
In addition, his supporters are fond of calling anti Romney people bigots, not comprehending the facts that show Romney to be what he really is, a liberal chameleon, who flips and flops depending on the way the political winds are blowing.
Be realistic in your nominee. Make sure the person has a reasonable chance of winning.
You do realize that Ross Perot ran to bring down George HW Bush don't you?
At this time the Republican Party holds the only hope of presenting a conservative candidate with a realistic chance of winning.
Considering the results of this poll,I think if any of those candidates are nominated,it will be a repeat of the last presidential election.
And of course that's why the left is pushing the Hukster.
Ronald Reagan, Harry Truman and Abraham Lincoln were polarizing.