Posted on 01/28/2011 3:01:22 PM PST by MindBender26
As many of you know, am old network TV newsie. Just tapped former proven source, retired VERY senior CIA officer. No Hq paper-pusher type, he is the real deal, a highly successful very senior ME field operator. Retired as ES-4.
From an intel assesment stanspoint, he is a proven source, with access to information, extensive field work in the area, no reason to lie and has always given good data in past.
His assessment (in shorthand:)
1. If Egypt falls, disaster for US. Put succinctly; "the horse we bet all our life savings on may be about to drop dead in the backstretch."
2. If Egypt gmvt falls, radical Muslim Brotherhood will be the new power, totally.
3. If Egypt falls, Jordan and Saudi are in trouble, but not necessarily gone. Even Syria is not safe.
4. Although Muslim Brotherhood would take over, the cause of revolt is not religion but the lack of jobs, horrible standard of living. Saudi and Jordan citizens have somewhat better conditions, so might be saved.
5. Egyptian Army is the absolute key. If Army stays local, Mubarak may be safe. If they falter, he is absolute toast.
6. Problem is, Army does not like Mubarak. They loved Sadat, he was one of them, but they do not like Hosni.
7. If Egypt falls, biggest winners are Iran and Russia. Iran becomes big kid on block. Russia desperately needs crude oil prices to go up to help economy. They prosper at $90 barrel crude. This could create $220, $250 a barrel crude oil prices
8. Big loser? Surprisingly not Israel. Just more enemies... who all know Israel will take war nuc if necessary to save self.... but due to US aid, Egyptian Army has great American equipment.
9. Biggest loser #2; Western Europe
10. Biggest loser #1; USA. Oil prices cripple economy. Even worse, word in every diplomatic circle becomes "See what happens to America's friends."
Bottom line; possible/probable disaster for US
The best kind of evidence: ancedotal.
Yemen? Tunisia?
Will be interesting to see Baraq running for re-election on 4 years of 10% unemployment and $5 gas.
No, should it come to pass, it will be totally — 100% — Obama’s fault.
It all makes sense, I’m afraid.
Thanks for posting this.
some sources have said we, the USA, backed this oppostion. I can not understand how or why we would back anyone who wants sharia law
Ping
Our relationship with Egypt comes out of the Cold War when Sadat tossed the Soviets out. What we need to do is get on the side of the democrats and do whatever is necessary to keep Egypt from becoming another Iran or Lebanon.
FYI
Funny, I was just telling my wife the same thing. My hope is that it will be a catalyst to get rid of the bastard in the WH.
Thanks. That’s how it looks from here, too. And where is Obama throughout all of this? Hiding behind his desk? He hasn’t really shown much in the way of “leadership.”
Bookmark
Would that be your CIA source?
scary stuff
Not for long. We'll have a depression that will make the last two years look like a walk in the park. 30% unemployment, anyone?
Thanks for post.
Of ALL the places I’d NEVER have expected a rational and sane take on this- I just heard an exchange on MSNBC between Matthews, Fineman and others.
Their take- yep Mubarak is a bad dictator. But if he fails to hold it together- Jordan is next and Israel is in DEEP trouble.
Pretty much.
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