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The Country To Watch: Egypt
Esquire ^ | 10/01/06 | Thomas P.M. Barnett

Posted on 01/29/2011 2:02:48 AM PST by AKSurprise

Let me give you the four scariest words I can't pronounce in Arabic: Egypt after Hosni Mubarak.

Osama picked the time (9/11), and Bush picked the venue (Iraq), but this fight between radical Islam and globalization's integrating forces was preordained the day Deng Xiaoping set in motion China's economic rise almost three decades ago. You can't rapidly add billions of new capitalists to the global economy and pretend the Islamic Middle East will remain queerly disconnected forever, somehow fire-walled from that borglike assimilation.

And so, while resistance may be ultimately futile, it will be bloody as hell in the meantime, with Cairo--not Tehran--likely to become the next big flash point in this Long War.

Mubarak's "emergency rule" dictatorship is deep into its third decade, making him one of Egypt's most durable pharaohs. His succession plan is clear: Son Gamal tries to replicate Beijing's model of economic reform, forestalling political reform.

In other words, connect to the global economy to avoid connecting to your own people: bread before circuses, my friends.

The problem? Another political force is connecting to the restive Egyptian people, and it's the Muslim Brotherhood, otherwise known as Al Qaeda 1.0. By hardwiring themselves into the goodwill of the masses through highly effective social-welfare nets, the Brotherhood is retracing the electoral pathway to power blazed by Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon: hearts and minds first, blood and guts later.

So it's basically a race: Gamal's quest for foreign direct investment and the jobs it generates versus the Brotherhood's quest for the political support of average Egyptians tired of lives led in quiet desperation.

(Excerpt) Read more at esquire.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Israel; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: egypt; insurrection; mubarak; muslimbrotherhood
Scary accurate, except IMHO, Bush was right in isolating Iran, and in reforming Iraq.

The reform strategy for Egypt, should have been more along the lines of Lebanon. And don't let anyone say Israel is the main cause of the problems in Arab/Muslim nations, the problem has always been the facist dictators/monarchies which rule the middle east with an Iron Hand, and little regard for the needs and concerns of the people.

The dictators have tried to focus attention and lay blame on Israel, but it is the Arab/Muslim leaders whom have caused the poor conditions that their peoples are forced to live in.

1 posted on 01/29/2011 2:02:51 AM PST by AKSurprise
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To: AKSurprise

“the problem has always been the facist dictators/monarchies which rule the middle east with an Iron Hand,”

Well, don’t forget the death cult that makes it impossible for the mooselimbs to live in peace with anyone, even themselves.


2 posted on 01/29/2011 2:20:14 AM PST by dsc (Any attempt to move a government to the left is a crime against humanity.)
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To: AKSurprise

I spent a year in Cairo in 1983 and the question in the sidewalk cafes back then was how long the Emergency Powers would be in place. And when i was there six or seven years ago the same question remained, but with jokes as to how long Mubarak would stay in power.

And I will never forget being told by a scholar in Cairo back in 1983 when I asked him about democracy in Egypt, and he said, “There will not be democracy in this country until most of the people can feed their children every night. The problem with democracy is that you cannot feed democracy to your children for dinner.”

There I was, 18 years old and this man in a street cafe explained Egypt and the entire middle east to me in one sentence.


3 posted on 01/29/2011 2:26:13 AM PST by trumandogz
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To: AKSurprise
it is the Arab/Muslim leaders whom have caused the poor conditions that their peoples are forced to live in.

What was typed is true, while on the arab street 'thems fightin' words'. Arabs/Moslems remind me of ex-wives or ex-husbands. The other ex only wants the other ex to just go away. May all the ex exs be happy, for somewhere there is an ex exer who is happy, and that has a tendency to upset the other ex. I'll ex out now.

4 posted on 01/29/2011 2:38:41 AM PST by no-to-illegals (Please God, Bless and Protect Our Men and Women in Uniform with Victory. Amen.)
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To: AKSurprise

“The problem has always been the facist dictators/monarchies which rule the middle east with an Iron Hand, and little regard for the needs and concerns of the people.”

Exactly.

Iran went from one brutal dictator to an even more brutal regime.

Egypt may go from one autocratic dictator to a brutal regime.

However, in the end we will continue to prop up the current regime, but Mubarak is old and in poor health and we cannot keep him standing forever.

The West should have been working with Mubarak for the last 15-20 years to arrive at a plan to transfer power that would not result in bloodshed in Cairo and a step backwards for the people of Egypt.


5 posted on 01/29/2011 2:39:51 AM PST by trumandogz
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To: no-to-illegals

Almost everything is an argument in Cairo or at least a very drawn out hopeless negotiation.

I have watched people argue a negotiation on a price for an hour and the they were literally negotiating over something less than an American dollar.

Argument and negotiation is their pastime and their sport of choice.

Time, Business, Trade and Politics move very slow.


6 posted on 01/29/2011 2:47:26 AM PST by trumandogz
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To: trumandogz

I recently sold a house for an Egyptian client. One of the most nit picky, nickel and dime transactions I’ve ever had the displeasure of dealing with. EVERYTHING was a negotiation. In the end he owed my handyman money. He argued the already agreed on price with him for days and ended up cutting a check for what HE thought was fair! I paid the rest.

As I did for a maid to clean the house before closing because she “charged too much”. He was a dirty, filthy, conniving, dishonest cheat.


7 posted on 01/29/2011 3:18:58 AM PST by albie
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To: AKSurprise
Scary accurate, except IMHO, Bush was right in isolating Iran, and in reforming Iraq.

He did?

Must be I slept thru that period! lol

Maybe there has been a "Black" ops ongoing for nearly a decade we are not aware of, with the goal to destabilize and support a revolution within Iran, but if so, it has born little fruit.

Likewise, Iran's (almost) open support for the bad guys after we went into Iraq was not met with forceful, PUBLIC, resitance by Bush, which at the time, was the ideal opportunity to lay down the law towards those crazies, enforced by some selective and effective cruise missiles, if need be.

Moreover, the BIGGEST mistake Bush made was allowing Iraq (and Afghanistan) to form new governments with Islam/Sharia being the "Controlling Authority."

That sealed forever, our efforts to converting either into a true ally--never mind their being "Democracies"--and guaranteeing that both will eventually end up being our sworn enemies.

8 posted on 01/29/2011 3:25:19 AM PST by Conservative Vermont Vet ((One of ONLY 37 Conservatives in the People's Republic of Vermont. Socialists and Progressives All))
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To: Condor51; calcowgirl
SS is going broke and US taxpayers are struggling while US taxpayers are extorted so that US tax dollars pour into these Mideast hellholes.

(Some have opined that the notion of a destabilized Mideast is going to make the $2 Billion foreign aid (to Egypt alone) look like chicken feed. When the Saudis are hit, US taxpayers will pay $7-8 dollar a gallon gas and grocery store shelves will empty as shipping systems fail due to fuel prices. New rulers will take over.........like The Muslim Brotherhood.)

LET'S LOOK AT THE FACTS The game was over years ago when the US was duped into thinking there was this thing called "peace in the Middle East."

The US was conned into appeasing the peace monster by pouring trillions of US dollars into "the region"...... talked into invading Mideast countries with rivers of young blood, which only served to make 100 million Muslims seethe with hatred for the US.

WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN If the US looked after its own interests and simply negotiated with the Saudis, we would have trillions of dollars in the US Treasury, and oil to spare.

Instead the US was conned-----duped by con artists who are too stupid to govern themselves unless the US taxpayer props them up with trillions of tax dollars.

It'll never end------the US government will be conned again, we will throw billions of hard earned tax dollars into this disaster, even if it sends the US into economic oblivion.

9 posted on 01/29/2011 3:32:27 AM PST by Liz
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To: AKSurprise

This little flare up shall prove to be another step toward final destruction of western civilization.

We vascilate on whom to side with, what to do and look to make friends with radical islam.

This is a death wish perputrated by the academic leftist in power.

It shall be interesting to see how we fare.


10 posted on 01/29/2011 4:16:36 AM PST by Lessthantolerant (The State is diametrically opposed to our search for a better living.)
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To: trumandogz

You got the best learning experience from just a few short sentences then in being in a classroom environment.


11 posted on 01/29/2011 4:23:05 AM PST by Biggirl ("The Best Of Times, The Worse Of Times", Charles Dickens)
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To: albie

I hear you when it comes to dealing with Muslims. It is very hard unless you are one and they think taking advantage of a Christian is a duty. I am stationed in Bahrain (Navy) and live out in town with my wife and four children. We are starting to worry about the craziness going on in this region.


12 posted on 01/29/2011 4:25:03 AM PST by ThunderStruck94
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To: albie

I hear you when it comes to dealing with Muslims. It is very hard unless you are one and they think taking advantage of a Christian is a duty. I am stationed in Bahrain (Navy) and live out in town with my wife and four children. We are starting to worry about the craziness going on in this region.


13 posted on 01/29/2011 4:26:02 AM PST by ThunderStruck94
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To: albie

Not surprised, right out from the Middle East, where prices are fought over.


14 posted on 01/29/2011 4:27:12 AM PST by Biggirl ("The Best Of Times, The Worse Of Times", Charles Dickens)
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To: AKSurprise

Emergency powers?
Someone say emergency powers?

How long before Obama evokes that act?
(It’s already in place you know)


15 posted on 01/29/2011 4:27:13 AM PST by vanilla swirl (We are the Patrick Henry we have been waiting for!)
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To: vanilla swirl

.....And how long before that ends up making American Revolution Part 2 a reality?


16 posted on 01/29/2011 4:28:25 AM PST by Biggirl ("The Best Of Times, The Worse Of Times", Charles Dickens)
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To: ThunderStruck94

It does not surprise me, because anyone who is not a Muslim, even in business dealings is treated like a dhimmi.


17 posted on 01/29/2011 4:30:02 AM PST by Biggirl ("The Best Of Times, The Worse Of Times", Charles Dickens)
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To: Biggirl

My guess is that the Egyptian Army will take power very shortly and move Mubarak and family out. Or; Mubarak will just leave and the Army will pick up the pieces.


18 posted on 01/29/2011 5:10:31 AM PST by Eric in the Ozarks (Go Hawks !)
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To: Biggirl; ThunderStruck94
'when it comes to dealing with Muslims. It is very hard unless you are one and they think taking advantage of a Christian is a duty.'

*** ...anyone who is not a Muslim, even in business dealings is treated like a dhimmi. ***

(first, 'scuse me for butting in)

With all due respect, in my business experiences that is not true.

19 posted on 01/29/2011 5:12:21 AM PST by Condor51 (Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a Congressman. But I repeat myself. [Mark Twain])
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To: vanilla swirl

Did they ever revoke the emergency powers of the 1930’s?


20 posted on 01/29/2011 5:13:20 AM PST by Vermont Lt (Don't taze my junk bro.)
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To: trumandogz

“Time, Business, Trade and Politics move very slow.”
Exactly. They live their lives from a very different perspecitve than Westerners do. What I think most do not realize is that Arab peoples are not hard wired, so to speak, for democracy. Their religion, Islam, is not a democratic one, it is anything but that. Their history is not democratic,being mostly a succession of powerful, wealthy rulers and poor subjects. When the ruler is toppled, the government that supplants it is not a democracy, it is usually socialistic or perhaps in the case of Egypt may be Islamic theocratic.


21 posted on 01/29/2011 5:14:50 AM PST by sueuprising (The best of it is, God is with us-John Wesley)
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To: AKSurprise

What is this ‘Muslim Brotherhood’? I had never heard that term until two days ago and now the term is being thrown around like “Al Qaeada”. Is the ‘Muslim Brotherhood’ a Middle East version of the Tea Party? If so, who is the Muslim equivalent of Sarah Palin? Whose rhetoric set off these riots? And, how come its OK for the Muslim Brotherhood to riot in Cairo but the Tea Party has to sit down and shut up in the USA?

Enquiring minds need to know...


22 posted on 01/29/2011 5:22:36 AM PST by NRG1973
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To: AKSurprise

Reforming Iran and isolating Iraq probably would have worked better.


23 posted on 01/29/2011 5:26:01 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: Vermont Lt

“Did they ever revoke the emergency powers of the 1930’s?”

ummmmm................NO!


24 posted on 01/29/2011 5:39:59 AM PST by vanilla swirl (We are the Patrick Henry we have been waiting for!)
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To: AKSurprise
Osama picked the time (9/11), and Bush picked the venue (Iraq), but this fight between radical Islam and globalization's integrating forces was preordained the day Deng Xiaoping set in motion China's economic rise almost three decades ago.

In the fight between the Lexus and the Olive Tree, the Lexus crowd has bankrupted itself through social engineering games and government pensions, and the Olive Tree has demographics on its side.

I guess Thomas Friedman thinks that raised eyebrows are sufficient to protect against a terrorist nuke.

And I'll bet he's forgotten what the Muslim street thinks of Jews.

NO cheers, unfortunately.

25 posted on 01/29/2011 5:45:32 AM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; bigheadfred; ColdOne; ...

Writing in the leftist hate sheet Esquire, Thomas P.M. Barnett sez:
Osama picked the time (9/11), and Bush picked the venue (Iraq), but this fight between radical Islam and globalization's integrating forces was preordained the day Deng Xiaoping set in motion China's economic rise almost three decades ago... while resistance may be ultimately futile, it will be bloody as hell in the meantime, with Cairo--not Tehran--likely to become the next big flash point in this Long War... In other words, connect to the global economy to avoid connecting to your own people: bread before circuses, my friends.
Egypt has been feeding itself for 5000 years, and that hasn't stopped just because of Nasserite socialism. These riots are the latest part of the 1400 year war against the world by Mohammedans. Period. Gotta love the buzzwords and spin -- "Bush" "Deng Xiaoping" "globalization" -- throw in "fiat money" "mercantilism" and "war crimes"...


26 posted on 01/29/2011 5:59:48 AM PST by SunkenCiv (The 2nd Amendment follows right behind the 1st because some people are hard of hearing.)
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To: AKSurprise

The Arabs are and always have been very Tribal, and they have been led by “strong men” for centuries. This is how things went in the Ottoman Empire; the Ottomans pretty much left the tribes alone and let them fight things out among themselves. The only time the Ottomans stepped in was when one of their interests was threatened, and they brought plenty of artillery with them when they cleaned house.

In large part, violence is what the Arabs understand and paying baksheesh has been a way of life for them for Centuries. The biggest threat to the Arabs is not the Israelis, it is the Iranians who would like nothing better than to restore the Persian Empire and clean the scourge of those very same Arabs off the earth along with the Jews.

This is whole situation is very complex and defies any simple or single explanations.


27 posted on 01/29/2011 6:07:30 AM PST by Bean Counter (Stout Hearts...)
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To: Bean Counter

Good post.


28 posted on 01/29/2011 6:12:02 AM PST by Dr. Ursus
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To: AKSurprise

The regimes in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, Syria, etc have played out their hand. It was easy for them to unite their populations in hatred for Israel and disdain for the West. Unfortunately, this does not create economic opportunity for the masses who have been slipping into ever worsening poverty.

When an uprising based on economics takes hold, of course the Muslim Brotherhood will be there to slip into that void. What everyone is left with is an Islamic regime worse than the dictators they started with.


29 posted on 01/29/2011 6:22:55 AM PST by RobertClark
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To: ThunderStruck94

Having lived in Israel, I can tell you that I developed methods to negotiate with arabs. Number one, never drink their shitty coffee (they always offer it to begin the negotiations.) Number two, offer 1/3 of their asking price, and stick with that for a few minutes..Number three, walk out the door. Number four, when he yanks you back, offer 10% less of what you already offered. Number five, walk out the door. Number six, offer the 10% that you just yanked back to him. I negotiated with a person like this for an hour. I was buying a pry bar—he stated that my final offer was less than what he paid for it. I told him that I shouldn’t have to pay for his poor bargaining skills. He caught me at the door and said OK...Just some advice! Ha!


30 posted on 01/29/2011 6:34:11 AM PST by richardtavor (One of the rare establishmt Republicans backed by the "Tea Party" movement that wants limited gove)
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To: Lessthantolerant

“shall be” is a Command. Who issued the command, and on what authority? “may be” might have been more appropriate.


31 posted on 01/29/2011 6:36:06 AM PST by seabee45
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

Would not surprise me either, because I both reading the interview and listening last night to Greta doing a tv interview of former USA Ambassitor John Bolton, he gaved a very detailed presentation which included that the military really rules the nation of Egypt and the generals there from what I have heard on Fox News is arguing among themselves what course of direction to take. Stay tuned.


32 posted on 01/29/2011 6:41:27 AM PST by Biggirl ("The Best Of Times, The Worse Of Times", Charles Dickens)
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To: Lessthantolerant

“shall be” is a Command. Who issued the command, and by what authority? “may be” might have been more appropriate.


33 posted on 01/29/2011 6:46:06 AM PST by seabee45
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To: NRG1973

They are a radical muslim jihadist group. Zawahiri, Osama’s number two, was.Muslim Brotherhood. They are the group that assasinated Anwar Sadat because of his agreements with Menachem Begin and Israel. So, they have been around for a while. I fail to see your comparison with the Tea Party Movement, though.


34 posted on 01/29/2011 6:46:55 AM PST by richardtavor (One of the rare establishmt Republicans backed by the "Tea Party" movement that wants limited gove)
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To: grey_whiskers

....And by the looks of things, that very same olive tree just as much WANTS the 21st century high tech gadgets as proof, the outrage got even worse once the Egyptian government decided to “shut down” the internet and cell phones. After that, things really got ugly there.

Adding not just only what China’s Deng Xiaoping setting into motion three decades ago China’s economic growth, but also the end of the “Iron Curtain” over in Eastern Europe as well a decade later. What is going on now in the Middle East is the latest chapter.


35 posted on 01/29/2011 6:52:36 AM PST by Biggirl ("The Best Of Times, The Worse Of Times", Charles Dickens)
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To: seabee45

No maybes about it. It will be interesting to see how we as a ntion fare with our leaders poorly leading and our people accepting the poor leadership.

Perhaps history commands it.


36 posted on 01/29/2011 6:52:49 AM PST by Lessthantolerant (The State is diametrically opposed to our search for a better living.)
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To: seabee45

No maybes about it. It will be interesting to see how we as a nation fare with our leaders poorly leading and our people accepting the poor leadership.

Perhaps history commands it.


37 posted on 01/29/2011 6:53:20 AM PST by Lessthantolerant (The State is diametrically opposed to our search for a better living.)
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To: Condor51

You must have been communicating a lot with a number of Middle East business people and they may be looking at what has been going on in Tunisia, Jordan, and now Egypt with a very nervous eye.


38 posted on 01/29/2011 7:03:17 AM PST by Biggirl ("The Best Of Times, The Worse Of Times", Charles Dickens)
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To: AKSurprise

As the British once said, “An Arab is either at your throat or under your boot heel.” I prefer the latter.


39 posted on 01/29/2011 7:39:15 AM PST by klgator
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To: AKSurprise

As the British once said, “An Arab is either at your throat or under your boot heel.” I prefer the latter.


40 posted on 01/29/2011 7:39:21 AM PST by klgator
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To: Biggirl
*** You must have been communicating a lot with a number of Middle East business people and they may be looking at what has been going on in Tunisia, Jordan, and now Egypt with a very nervous eye. ***

I have been dealing with 'Middle East business people' (aka: Muslims) since early 2002. (yes, shortly after 9-11)

And going back in my 40, oops 41 years in 'the business'(1), they have been the most: honest, honorable, fair, trustworthy, generous, and just plain NICE, of ALL the people of different religions including atheists I'm sure, and/or nationalities, that I have ever dealt with.

And please don't ask me which was the worst of the lot - or who I knew I'd be getting a screwing over from at their earliest convenience. I don't want to start a war. Plus, I have to leave at 11:15 am to get a haircut.

(1) What that 'business' (Industry) is I cannot say.

41 posted on 01/29/2011 7:49:09 AM PST by Condor51 (Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a Congressman. But I repeat myself. [Mark Twain])
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To: ThunderStruck94
I am stationed in Bahrain (Navy) and live out in town with my wife and four children.

I suggest that you change that situation post haste.

42 posted on 01/29/2011 11:45:50 AM PST by Oatka ("A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves." –Bertrand de Jouvenel)
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To: NRG1973
What is this ‘Muslim Brotherhood’? I had never heard that term until two days ago and now the term is being thrown around like “Al Qaeada”. Is the ‘Muslim Brotherhood’ a Middle East version of the Tea Party? If so, who is the Muslim equivalent of Sarah Palin? Whose rhetoric set off these riots? And, how come its OK for the Muslim Brotherhood to riot in Cairo but the Tea Party has to sit down and shut up in the USA?

Enquiring minds need to know...

The Muslim Brotherhood isn't new, in fact it can be considered the direct ancestor of Al Qaeada. It's origins were in fact, in Egypt, by a man named Qtub, who was eventually hanged (by the Nasser government, if I recall correctly). They've been around for quite some time, are fundamentalist Islamic, and generally not a nice group at all. You can Google, or wikipedia for somewhat more information, and detail on this outfit, with the usual caveats in mind...

the infowarrior

43 posted on 01/29/2011 10:09:30 PM PST by infowarrior
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