Skip to comments.Chinese Succeed With SLBM Launch: The Week Ahead
Posted on 02/07/2011 10:14:55 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
Reports are swirling around that the Peoples Liberation Army Navy has successfully tested Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles. If so, this achievement would represent an important advance in Chinas strategic capabilities.
Norman Polmar, the respected naval and intelligence author. mentioned this at a presentation Wednesday evening while discussing his new book, Project Azorian. Since then, weve been trying to get more details. Polmar says in an email that the missile test submarine is a Soviet-built Project 629/Golf diesel-electric submarine. The only public mention of this so far (in English) comes in a South Korean newspaper, the Chosun Ibo. This is what the South Korean paper says the Chinese daily said: The Changcheng 200 smoothly accomplished scores of test-launch missions of ballistic missiles over the past 46 years. It received the title vanguard submarine of underwater test launches from Hu Jintao, the chairman of the Central Military Commission, last August, the daily said. (We cant find any mentions in English.)
This week: The Pentagon is gearing up for the budget presentations on Feb 14. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment previews the budget during its authoritative briefing on Thursday. The Air Force is developing its game plan on the tanker contract award. Congress is pretty quiet this week, though the House Armed Services emerging threats and capabilities subcommittee holds a Friday hearing at 11:30 a.m. on cyber issues. Tomorrow morning, well run our commentary by Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation about just what was accomplished during the recent Washington visit of President Jun Jintao. And weve got breakfast on Wednesday with Paul Kaminski, head of the Defense Science Board, one of the best brains operating in the U.S. defense world.
(Excerpt) Read more at dodbuzz.com ...
Where is the proof and link it.Extrordinary Claims reqires Extraordinary evidence.
No proof. Just a little chatter I have heard. But do not put it past em. I even picked up on a stream that they have a new mini EMP system. Able to be sub deployed. Their diesel electrics are getting very quiet.
Sorry, you don’t have any proof and you claim does not hold any water. Secondhand chatter does not count.
I'd go for Ventura County Naval Base and the Pt. Magu missile range radar, along with the separate HF surface radar, the ANG radar, the Naval Air Base radar and the Oxnard radar, especially since all of which would have an unobstructed view of the area in question. It was a plane. Conspiracies are fun and all, but this one's gone far too long. Ten million people didn't miss a missile launch.
No doubt. But something is fishy here. Chinese tech comes direct from USA. Remember the Rosenbergs. Money talks.
To me it is a Sun Tsu method of talking baout something enough to give an impression that your adversary then tries to plan against.
1st, they Chinese do no have the SAT of OTH capability to find our carriers and communicate it back to their launchers.
2nd, by the time the missile arrives where the potential target was, the carrier will have moved off several miles and they Chinese have not demonstrated any onboard target acquisition capability, which will be very hard for a missile to acquire and then manuever at the speeds they are talking about, and in the electronic environment that would suround a carrier geared up for war.
3rd The US has developed and successfully tested on multiple occassions the capability to use AEGIS in a BMD role and shoot down ballistic missiles.
So, this untested, untried, unrevealed capability will be charging hard into the teeth of one of our strengths if they ever do test it.
Finally, with FEL, we are moving towards laser defense of carriers which will definitely be geared towards missile defense, particularly anti-ballistic missile defense.
One of the rules of war: Never underestimate your opponent.
Fact is, as of yet, despite the fact they are clearly studying and researching it, there has not been one operational test of the system...not one.
By the US Naval Institute
Here are some relevant statements from that article you linked to that support what I have been saying:
...perhaps a strategically publicized test sometime in the future...Right now it is smoke and mirrors. They do not have the 4CI capability to support it. They do not have the OTH or long distance targeting and tracking capability, they do not have the acquisition technology for the seeker head once the missile arrives in the area. And the list goes on.
...the mere perception that China might have an antiship ballistic missile (ASBM) capability could be a game-changer...
While Chinese ASBM capability remains uncertain...
...if supported by "a sophisticated command-and-control system,"
They are looking at it, no doubt, but what they are doing more is getting people all worried about something in the hopes that we will change our direction because we are so far in front of them.
As I said, even if they do come out with something in the future...and in my estimation they are a long ways out from even successfully testing it, much less deploying it...we already have a defense that we have tested successfully and deployed in place to counter it.
We are well aware of their sat cpablities, we see there recon capabilities, we monitor their communications and their computer capabilities (just like they do ours).
Anyyhow, there abilities in these do not match up with what they are proposing. That’s not to say they wont get there...they just aren;t there yet, and the system they are talking about has not been live tested.
When they launch one far out into the China Sea against first stationary and then moving targets, we will know it.
HUMIT is always better then SIGNET.When the Chinese spy on us they use HUMINT.I think this thread has run its course But, I respectfully disagree with you
We have and use both.
I just not heard the United States take in China as active as the Chinese in the USA. I know the United States and Taiwan have a cooperative intelligence-sharing agreement that allows both the US National Security Agency (NSA) and Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) to listen in on mainland Chinese military communications in both the Nanjing and Guangzhou military regions. With the assistance of the NSA, Taiwan has constructed a signal intelligence (SIGINT) base at Pingtung Lee on Yangmingshan Mountain just north of Taipei, which has been operating for at least 15 years.
Not so fast. Jane’s retracted their comments. Covered several times, but I see you are still using it as evidence.