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Chinese Succeed With SLBM Launch: The Week Ahead
DoD Buzz ^ | 2/6/2011 | Colin Clark

Posted on 02/07/2011 10:14:55 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld

Reports are swirling around that the People’s Liberation Army Navy has successfully tested Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles. If so, this achievement would represent an important advance in China’s strategic capabilities.

Norman Polmar, the respected naval and intelligence author. mentioned this at a presentation Wednesday evening while discussing his new book, Project Azorian. Since then, we’ve been trying to get more details. Polmar says in an email that the missile test submarine is a Soviet-built Project 629/Golf diesel-electric submarine. The only public mention of this so far (in English) comes in a South Korean newspaper, the Chosun Ibo. This is what the South Korean paper says the Chinese daily said: “The Changcheng 200 smoothly accomplished scores of test-launch missions of ballistic missiles over the past 46 years. It received the title ‘vanguard submarine of underwater test launches’ from Hu Jintao, the chairman of the Central Military Commission, last August,” the daily said. (We can’t find any mentions in English.)

This week: The Pentagon is gearing up for the budget presentations on Feb 14. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment previews the budget during its authoritative briefing on Thursday. The Air Force is developing its game plan on the tanker contract award. Congress is pretty quiet this week, though the House Armed Services emerging threats and capabilities subcommittee holds a Friday hearing at 11:30 a.m. on cyber issues. Tomorrow morning, we’ll run our commentary by Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation about just what was accomplished during the recent Washington visit of President Jun Jintao. And we’ve got breakfast on Wednesday with Paul Kaminski, head of the Defense Science Board, one of the best brains operating in the U.S. defense world.

(Excerpt) Read more at dodbuzz.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ballisticmissile; ballisticmissiles; china; missile; mysterymissile; plan; slbm; submarine

1 posted on 02/07/2011 10:15:02 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

Good, the Chinese should continue to waste billions of dollars seeking a technology that is utterly useless. They should develop even greater stealth technologies for these boomers, and spend even more money building the largest fleet ever. Hope Russia revives their boomer program and spends billions on it as well.


2 posted on 02/07/2011 10:19:51 PM PST by kingu (Legislators should read what they write!)
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To: kingu

A DF-21D carrier killer missile is not useless technology. The U.S. Navy is extremely worried about this missile.


3 posted on 02/07/2011 10:22:40 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld
Chinese SLBM missile launch: Tell me, do you really think that this is an airliner and not a missile launch, as the Jane's expert is calling it and as the former Under Secretary of Defense is calling it???



4 posted on 02/07/2011 10:24:47 PM PST by DontTreadOnMe2009 (So stop treading on me already!)
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To: kingu

You never underestimate your opponent/enemy.


5 posted on 02/07/2011 10:26:37 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: DontTreadOnMe2009

It was a missile launch from Vandenberg AFB that was unscheduled. If we had the radar tapes from Santa Barabra Airport it would give us the answqer


6 posted on 02/07/2011 10:28:43 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld
A DF-21D carrier killer missile is not useless technology. The U.S. Navy is extremely worried about this missile.

Unless the Chinese are silly enough to spend billions converting a portable launch unit into a submersible launch unit, I'm not sure what point there is to bring it up. Ballistic missiles being used against slow moving targets has been proposed, explored, experimented with, and ultimately discarded. If you have a overly cautious and easily spooked enemy, launching any ballistic missile for any reason is going to elicit a strong and likely fatal response. And if you've managed to come up with a method of differentiating between a conventional or nuclear payload, I'm sure a whole lot of countries in the world would be very happy if you shared that information immediately.

An anti-carrier ballistic missiles is money well wasted. That said, the real danger is in China selling these portable launchers to other nations who'd be stupid enough to use them. So long as they're in the hands of a nuclear power, they're too dangerous to use.

7 posted on 02/07/2011 10:44:15 PM PST by kingu (Legislators should read what they write!)
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld
Vandenberg’s far to the north, not the direction of this shot. That said, it wasn't a missile launch. I and another few million people would have noticed.
8 posted on 02/07/2011 10:49:47 PM PST by kingu (Legislators should read what they write!)
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To: kingu

The DF-21D anti carrier missile was based on the Persing II missile. They managed to turn it to a game changer in the China Sea.Anyone who manages to reverse engineer a former missile that was in the US nuclear inventory is extremely dangerous.


9 posted on 02/07/2011 10:50:06 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: kingu

If we had the Santa Barbara Airport radar tapes we can solve this mystery.We can deduce its location from the signature.


10 posted on 02/07/2011 10:51:50 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

It won’t surprise me one bit if Obama is giving the ChiComs missile secrets.


11 posted on 02/07/2011 11:08:41 PM PST by rbosque (12 year Freeper!!! Combat Economist.)
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld
If we had the Santa Barbara Airport radar tapes we can solve this mystery.We can deduce its location from the signature.

I'm sure you've read this somewhere, and have come to believe that this is important in some fashion or another. ARTCC Los Angeles (Lancaster) would be the more useful datapoint who's already come out to say that there wasn't any missile launches.

12 posted on 02/07/2011 11:10:24 PM PST by kingu (Legislators should read what they write!)
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld
As for the missile design, did it take the full power of the United States military industrial complex to design SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket? It is, actually, just rocket science, and engineering a rocket simply takes time and money. Much easier to copy an existing design, as likely any useful data's already been published multiple times, and probably detailed in patent applications. The real specialty is designing the payloads, and if the payloads are as speculated, then indeed China's demonstrated they're a pretty strong power in design, just a pretty week player in thinking, as again, tell me how you tell the difference between a conventional ballistic missile launch and a nuclear one?

Further, what is honestly the difference between launching it at a carrier with 5,000 souls aboard and a small town in the United States? Either's going to get you killed.

13 posted on 02/07/2011 11:15:14 PM PST by kingu (Legislators should read what they write!)
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To: kingu

What is the revolution period of the radar that feeds the ARTCC? Probably 12 seconds (5 rpm) , maybe 6 (10 rpm) or 10 (6 rpm) . The missile would be up and out of range, in little more than a single revolution. Might get one hit on it, and it would be hard to tell from ground clutter. Even if you got 2 hits, it would be near impossible to correlate them, they’d be a good long distance apart.

Vandy is shadowed from both Santa Barbara and Lancaster, but more so from Lancaster. So that cuts down on the visible, in range, and detectable time. (Missiles are not the best radar targets for radars designed for aircraft.)


14 posted on 02/07/2011 11:38:19 PM PST by El Gato ("The second amendment is the reset button of the US constitution"-Doug McKay)
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To: DontTreadOnMe2009

The picture you posted shows China’s first real test of their SLBM.


15 posted on 02/07/2011 11:59:31 PM PST by jonrick46 (We're being water boarded with the sewage of Fabian Socialism.)
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

They tested one off of LA a while back.


16 posted on 02/08/2011 1:44:37 AM PST by screaminsunshine (Surfers Rule)
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

Could be.

But many are reporting that the Pentagon is quietly saying “Chinese” ...

as with many other current mysteries, who knows , but no one is talking about it either.


17 posted on 02/08/2011 5:49:11 AM PST by DontTreadOnMe2009 (So stop treading on me already!)
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To: jonrick46

The picture you posted shows China’s first real test of their SLBM.


I agree.

As do many others.


18 posted on 02/08/2011 5:50:34 AM PST by DontTreadOnMe2009 (So stop treading on me already!)
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To: screaminsunshine

There is no proof of that. Every ocean in the world is monitored by the SOSUS network.The SOund SUrveillance System (SOSUS) provides deep-water long-range detection capability. SOSUS enjoyed tremendous success during the Cold War tracking submarines by their faint acoustic signals. SOSUS consists of high-gain long fixed arrays in the deep ocean basins. The U.S. Navy would have picked it up.


19 posted on 02/08/2011 2:48:44 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: kingu
Santa Barbara was close to the “phenomena” plus they have the facilities.Anyways, all the data might have already disappeared.
20 posted on 02/08/2011 2:53:16 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

They did.


21 posted on 02/08/2011 3:01:10 PM PST by screaminsunshine (34 States)
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To: screaminsunshine

Where is the proof and link it.Extrordinary Claims reqires Extraordinary evidence.


22 posted on 02/08/2011 3:04:10 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

No proof. Just a little chatter I have heard. But do not put it past em. I even picked up on a stream that they have a new mini EMP system. Able to be sub deployed. Their diesel electrics are getting very quiet.


23 posted on 02/08/2011 3:09:22 PM PST by screaminsunshine (34 States)
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To: screaminsunshine

Sorry, you don’t have any proof and you claim does not hold any water. Secondhand chatter does not count.


24 posted on 02/08/2011 3:11:46 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld
Santa Barbara was close to the “phenomena” plus they have the facilities.Anyways, all the data might have already disappeared.

I'd go for Ventura County Naval Base and the Pt. Magu missile range radar, along with the separate HF surface radar, the ANG radar, the Naval Air Base radar and the Oxnard radar, especially since all of which would have an unobstructed view of the area in question. It was a plane. Conspiracies are fun and all, but this one's gone far too long. Ten million people didn't miss a missile launch.

25 posted on 02/08/2011 3:16:48 PM PST by kingu (Legislators should read what they write!)
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

No doubt. But something is fishy here. Chinese tech comes direct from USA. Remember the Rosenbergs. Money talks.


26 posted on 02/08/2011 3:19:29 PM PST by screaminsunshine (34 States)
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To: kingu
I'd go for Ventura County Naval Base and the Pt. Magu missile range radar, along with the separate HF surface radar, the ANG radar, the Naval Air Base radar and the Oxnard radar, especially since all of which would have an unobstructed view of the area in question

The governemnt would never give you the radar tapes from these places because they are government installations.Those tapes would belong to the US Air Force and the U.S. Navy .At municipal airport a better getting the data through the FAA.
27 posted on 02/08/2011 3:20:30 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: Jeff Head

Ping.


28 posted on 02/08/2011 4:07:59 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (up)
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld
The Chinese are dangerous but there has not been one single operational test of the so-called DF-21.

To me it is a Sun Tsu method of talking baout something enough to give an impression that your adversary then tries to plan against.

1st, they Chinese do no have the SAT of OTH capability to find our carriers and communicate it back to their launchers.

2nd, by the time the missile arrives where the potential target was, the carrier will have moved off several miles and they Chinese have not demonstrated any onboard target acquisition capability, which will be very hard for a missile to acquire and then manuever at the speeds they are talking about, and in the electronic environment that would suround a carrier geared up for war.

3rd The US has developed and successfully tested on multiple occassions the capability to use AEGIS in a BMD role and shoot down ballistic missiles.

So, this untested, untried, unrevealed capability will be charging hard into the teeth of one of our strengths if they ever do test it.

Finally, with FEL, we are moving towards laser defense of carriers which will definitely be geared towards missile defense, particularly anti-ballistic missile defense.

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA

29 posted on 02/08/2011 4:30:37 PM PST by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head

One of the rules of war: Never underestimate your opponent.


30 posted on 02/08/2011 6:03:41 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld
Not underestimating them at all. I wrote a whole book (over 800 pages-small print) about the type of horrific damage they can do to us...but we should also understand their strategies and be willing to speak straight about what is happening.

Fact is, as of yet, despite the fact they are clearly studying and researching it, there has not been one operational test of the system...not one.

Check out THE DRAGON'S FURY - World War against America and the West

31 posted on 02/08/2011 9:16:32 PM PST by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head

http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2009-05/verge-game-changer

By the US Naval Institute


32 posted on 02/08/2011 11:11:19 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld
I've been a member of the USNI for a long time. There's no dounbt such a system would be dangerous. but we do already have defenses that are tested and proven against it, and developing more.

Here are some relevant statements from that article you linked to that support what I have been saying:

...perhaps a strategically publicized test sometime in the future...

...the mere perception that China might have an antiship ballistic missile (ASBM) capability could be a game-changer...

While Chinese ASBM capability remains uncertain...

...if supported by "a sophisticated command-and-control system,"
Right now it is smoke and mirrors. They do not have the 4CI capability to support it. They do not have the OTH or long distance targeting and tracking capability, they do not have the acquisition technology for the seeker head once the missile arrives in the area. And the list goes on.

They are looking at it, no doubt, but what they are doing more is getting people all worried about something in the hopes that we will change our direction because we are so far in front of them.

As I said, even if they do come out with something in the future...and in my estimation they are a long ways out from even successfully testing it, much less deploying it...we already have a defense that we have tested successfully and deployed in place to counter it.

33 posted on 02/09/2011 8:45:08 AM PST by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head
They do not have the 4CI capability to support it

We do not know that.We do not have any clandestine agents in China.
34 posted on 02/09/2011 3:38:47 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

You’re mistaken.

We are well aware of their sat cpablities, we see there recon capabilities, we monitor their communications and their computer capabilities (just like they do ours).

Anyyhow, there abilities in these do not match up with what they are proposing. That’s not to say they wont get there...they just aren;t there yet, and the system they are talking about has not been live tested.

When they launch one far out into the China Sea against first stationary and then moving targets, we will know it.


35 posted on 02/09/2011 3:57:34 PM PST by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head

HUMIT is always better then SIGNET.When the Chinese spy on us they use HUMINT.I think this thread has run its course But, I respectfully disagree with you


36 posted on 02/09/2011 4:04:51 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

We have and use both.


37 posted on 02/09/2011 8:23:35 PM PST by Jeff Head (Liberty is not free. Never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head

I just not heard the United States take in China as active as the Chinese in the USA. I know the United States and Taiwan have a cooperative intelligence-sharing agreement that allows both the US National Security Agency (NSA) and Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) to listen in on mainland Chinese military communications in both the Nanjing and Guangzhou military regions. With the assistance of the NSA, Taiwan has constructed a signal intelligence (SIGINT) base at Pingtung Lee on Yangmingshan Mountain just north of Taipei, which has been operating for at least 15 years.


38 posted on 02/09/2011 9:04:13 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: DontTreadOnMe2009

Yes


39 posted on 02/09/2011 9:15:54 PM PST by kanawa (Obama - "The only people who don't want to disclose the truth are people with something to hide.")
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To: DontTreadOnMe2009

Not so fast. Jane’s retracted their comments. Covered several times, but I see you are still using it as evidence.


40 posted on 02/11/2011 4:33:22 PM PST by Tommyjo
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

This is nothing new. The PRC have been testing ballistic missile from this Golf Class test submarine for decades. In the 1980s they built their first dedicated SLBM sub the Type 92 (Xia Class). In the last decade they have built the Type 094 (Jin Class) nuclear powered ballistic sub to field the JL-2 ballistic missile.


41 posted on 02/11/2011 5:00:15 PM PST by Tommyjo
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What is interesting is the history of this class of submarine.K129 which was a Golf class submarine sank and the accident being picked up with the SOSUS network. We recovered parts of the boat.


42 posted on 02/11/2011 5:11:39 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: kingu

***Good, the Chinese should continue to waste billions of dollars seeking a technology that is utterly useless.***

I too wondered why they would go as far as to arm a Soviet era Golf diesel-electric with SLBM when they already have their 091, 092, 093, 094, a rumored 095 & 096, and even a speculative 097 program to boot. It must also be known however that this Golf diesel-electric has been well known to be a test bed for other SLBM since the days of the 091.

This suggests to me one thing: What the ChiCom’s are in fact saying is that they had succeeded in the launching of DF-31 ICBM from a hull that were not intended for the launching of ICBM class missiles and that is a great feat on the part of these Commies :).

After all, if they can arm the Golf diesel-electric with a DF-31 ICBM, what then does that say about their future Golf diesel-electrics such as their 039 Ming class, their 040 Song class, their 041 Yuan class, and their recently declassified and supposedly upgraded 041 Super Yuan hull???

***They should develop even greater stealth technologies for these boomers, and spend even more money building the largest fleet ever. Hope Russia revives their boomer program and spends billions on it as well.***

Unlike us north Americans and those of us in the Anglo world, Russia 2011, I’m afraid, had already given up their military aggressiveness and assertiveness and unlikely to see the Chinese as a military rival no more. In fact, just as how I see relationships going into the future between the United States and the Chinese, which is leaning towards what are “Superfusion”, eventually, so are relationships between the Russians and the Chinese one of detente, mutual respect, and one of mutual cooperation because it’s the only way to go for these big boys.

Therefore, relationships between Russia and China would be one that’s based economic competitions and, eventually, one of cooperation based on mutual benefits or how the wall street people would take to the merging of one conglomerate with another as a means of economic survival.

Sorry, gotta go. no time, the grandkid getting cranky!


43 posted on 02/16/2011 9:05:20 AM PST by EdisonOne
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To: TheEditor

Minus the 2 new kids on the block - India & Pakistan (and an undeclared Israel), China had the LEAST number of nuclear weapons. She also pledge a “no first use” of nuclear weapon.

With a history of humiliation from Western countries domination the last 150 or so years ago notwithstanding as late as 1750 having a third (1/3) i.e. 33.33% of the World’s GNP (Gross national Products), China must have a deterrence weapon against any powers in the world.

In a few years China is poised to be the largest economy and in time, perhaps the richest country taking his historical place in the world.

1) ASBM is NOT a money-waster. Consider this:- If Chinese missile can hit a satellite target, the size of a mini-van travelling at 20,000 km/h (yes, twenty thousand km per hour), what make you think that the same missile cannot be able to strike a gigantic size carrier which traveled at a tortoise speed?
The key words here is NOT whether China would strike or not - great probability China will NEVER used it against the US or any country for that matter - but the effect is DETERRENCE

2) The SLBM of JL-2 has also the deterrence effect in that it would give China a alternative platform to have a “second-strike capability”

That is all. No intention of China to threaten any country using ASBM or JL-2. China want a “peaceful and harmonious rise”.


44 posted on 05/16/2011 7:11:26 AM PDT by JosephTan
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To: ErnstStavroBlofeld

They never could have done this without Bill Clinton and Loral. Thanks for the treason Bill. Hiding behind the Lewinski scandal was genius. As for the Republicans who allowed it. They should be shot by the same firing squad for treason.


45 posted on 05/16/2011 7:17:43 AM PDT by Republic of Texas (Socialism Always Fails)
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