Skip to comments.Heavily Democratic states cut in half since 2008: Gallup
Posted on 02/21/2011 11:46:33 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Hope and Change has struck the Democratic Party in a big — and unexpected — way. Gallup analyzes its poll data from 2010 on party affiliation to look at the shift in each state, and the news is almost uniformly bad for Democrats. Almost every state has had a decrease in voter affiliation for Democrats, most of those significant, and the number of solidly-blue states has been cut in half:
Gallup’s analysis of party affiliation in the U.S. states shows a marked decline in the number of solidly Democratic states from 2008 (30) to 2010 (14). The number of politically competitive states increased over the same period, from 10 to 18, with more limited growth in the number of leaning or solidly Republican states. …
Even with Democratic Party affiliation declining during the past two years, Democratic states still outnumbered Republican states by 23 to 10 last year, and there were 14 solidly Democratic states compared with 5 solidly Republican states. …
Looking more closely at the changes in state party affiliation since 2008, only one state moved from a Democratic positioning to a Republican positioning — New Hampshire, which was solidly Democratic in 2008 but now is considered leaning Republican. Alabama, Kansas, Montana, and South Dakota moved from a competitive designation to solidly or leaning Republican status. A total of 12 states — Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Louisiana, Maine, Missouri, Nevada, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin — shifted from solidly or leaning Democratic to competitive. No states have moved in a more Democratic direction since 2008. (A listing of each state’s classification for 2008, 2009, and 2010 is available on page 2 of this report.)
So much for 2008′s supposed political realignment. Barack Obama now appears to have profited from Bush fatigue more than any move of the country to a center-left position on the political spectrum. Most states show Democrats losing ground, even in the 14 states that are solidly Democratic.
That gives Obama some bad portents for his 2012 re-election campaign. It also puts Democratic control of the Senate after the 2012 elections an even more remote outcome. In key states, Democratic incumbents face tough fights — or where some Democrats have retired, an even tougher fight for an open seat. Using Gallup’s historical tool to look at these key states, we can track the problem on both levels:
Forgive the order in which I entered these, but do look at the impact of these affiliation changes in key states. In five states that Obama won in 2008 (VA, IN, FL, WI, OH), the change in party affiliation change outstrips Obama’s margin of victory — which would result in a flip of 81 electoral votes. Adding in Pennsylvania, where the difference is under a single percentage point, Obama loses 101 EC votes in the next election — which would result in a Republican victory.
Republicans also look strong in races with Democratic incumbents, especially in Wisconsin and Ohio. Florida looks promising, and even in Pennsylvania, the GOP has closed the gap considerably heading into 2011. Republicans barely lost in Washington in 2010m but may have enough momentum to seriously challenge Maria Cantwell for her open seat. Claire McCaskill looks especially vulnerable in Missouri.
Much will depend on the GOP’s ability to deliver on their promises in the House this year for fiscal discipline, and the Democratic attempts to subvert and thwart those. If they can accomplish that, Republicans may pick up even more momentum into 2012 and put more Senate seats — and Electoral College votes — in play.
Update: I should have noted it above, but the EC totals I use are the post-Census numbers that will be in play in 2012.
2012 will look more like 1994 than 2010 did for the Rats.
OK was leaning Democrat? Did I miss something?
This is more libtard propaganda!!! Georgia is NOT competitive! Its a red state that has gotten redder since 2006...Don’t believe the hype...
I don’t know about how accurate the article is, since this:
‘Tennessee...shifted from solidly or leaning Democratic to competitive’
Is completely wrong. McCain won with 56.8% of the vote. Both Senators are Republicans.
this doesn’t make any sense. How can there only be 5 solid republican states in 2010 (up from 4 in 2008 and 2009). By the looks of this table, there’s no way the repubs could have won the house last year.
Practically the entire south is in play? I don’t buy it.
Same here in Indiana. NO WAY this state will go Blue again for a long long while.
RE: Tennessee...shifted from solidly or leaning Democratic to competitive
Is completely wrong. McCain won with 56.8% of the vote. Both Senators are Republicans.
And Al Gore would have been president in 2000 had he won his home state. Apparently, Tennessee refuses to support their own Democratic home boy.
My little state of NH back in the red !!!
I think they are talking about at the state level. Southern Democrats and NE Republicans mess the map up a tad.
I did this list the other day. It shows the list of states where the GOP/Dems control both state houses or are tied and the state’s Presidential Election leanings. Some interesting data:
GOP CONTROLLED HOUSE + SENATE
ALABAMA (SAFE RED)
ARIZONA (SAFE RED)
FLORIDA (LEANS RED)
GEORGIA (SAFE RED)
IDAHO (SAFE RED)
INDIANA (SAFE RED)
KANSAS (SAFE RED)
MAINE (SAFE BLUE)
MICHIGAN (LIKELY BLUE)
MINNESOTA (LIKELY BLUE)
MISSOURI (LEANS RED)
MONTANA (SAFE RED)
NEBRASKA* (SAFE RED) - UNICAMERAL GOVT
NEW HAMPSHIRE (LEANS BLUE)
NORTH CAROLINA (SAFE RED)
NORTH DAKOTA (SAFE RED)
OKLAHOMA (SAFE RED)
PENNSYLVIANIA (LEANS BLUE)
SOUTH CAROLINA (SAFE RED)
SOUTH DAKOTA (SAFE RED)
TENNESSEE (SAFE RED)
TEXAS (SAFE RED)
UTAH (SAFE RED)
WYOMING (SAFE RED)
ALASKA (SAFE RED)
KENTUCKY (SAFE RED)
LOUISIANA (SAFE RED) - SENATE IS TIED 19-19 PENDING 22 FEB ELECTION
MISSISSIPPI (SAFE RED)
NEW YORK (SAFE BLUE)
OREGON (SAFE BLUE) - HOUSE IS TIED 30-30
VIRGINIA (SAFE RED)
DEM CONTROLLED HOUSE + SENATE
ARKANSAS (SAFE RED)
CALIFORNIA (SAFE BLUE)
CONNECTICUT (SAFE BLUE)
DELAWARE (SAFE BLUE)
HAWAII (SAFE BLUE)
ILLINOIS (SAFE BLUE)
MARYLAND (SAFE BLUE)
MASSACHUSETTS (SAFE BLUE)
NEW JERSEY (SAFE BLUE)
NEW MEXICO (TOSS-UP)
RHODE ISLAND (SAFE BLUE)
VERMONT (SAFE BLUE)
WASHINGTON (SAFE BLUE)
WEST VIRGINIA (SAFE RED)
My thoughts on Georgia - my state - also. Gallup is crazy.
Independents giveth, the independents taketh away. Repeat until one party gets it right.
Republicans won GA by only a 2% margin. A 2% swing means that GA would be totally democrat. One republican governor in over 130 years and he is a former democrat!
Also if you look at the state elected officials or by our Congressional representation we are getting "redder"
The 2% reflected the 2010 victory of Gov Deal, who was not the most popular republican candidate but IS the 2nd Post Reconstruction Republican Governor. I personally, would have rather seen others win the primary nod but he won the run-off beating Karen Handel and incidentally she was one of the few people sponsored by Sarah Palin that failed to win. I'm pretty sure if she had won it outright (she had the plurality in the primary) she would have had a much larger margin... www.georgia.gov
how are states like Texas and Oklahoma shaded gray?
Its Gallup...seems like they are already trying to depress conservative and tea party turn out for 2012...sound like they are wasting pixels and bandwidth to me...
If the GOP had stayed with Reaganism (which was incredibly successful), instead of a kinder, gentler, compassionate conservatism, they would be the overwhelming majority and the country would be in much better shape.
It is BS. Tennessee has two out of 95 counties that are solid rat. It is the two main counties that feed on the gov’t cheese.
And John McCain as the Republican nominee. ;(
We need to get these dinosaurs out of positions of power in the party and install the younger set who have fire in their bellies and aren't afraid to take the fight to the enemy.
Agreed. Look at the data they are looking at. It is “party affiliation”. For example, in Georgia it is Republicans 43% and demo-rats 41.4%. Let’s do some simple math: those numbers together total 84.4%. So what about the remaining 15.6%? Where do these independents lean? This is where the different occurs, which is not represented in the data provided by Gallop and is what makes a state “out of play” for the demo-rats.
Like you implied, this is “manipulation of stats” to try and make the demo-rats look better than they are. In the end, they are much worse off and are getting worse every day.
Well...I am off to write another check to a Republican congressman.
“random sample of 352,840 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.”
Better yet, this is not even likely voter sample which tends to be older and more Republican.
Well that explains it. Adults.
Lemme run the analysis based on last year.
(+1 advantage means a 49/51 split)
(+10 advantage means a 40/60 split)
HI +23 (+18)
VT +19 (+14)
MD +13 (+11)
NY +15 (+11)
DE +13 (+10)
MA +13 (+9)
IL +13 (+9)
CA +12 (+9)
CT +12 (+8)
RI +14 (+6)
WA +9 (+6)
OR +9 (+6)
MI +9 (+5)
NM +8 (+6)
NJ +8 (+4)
NV +7 (+4)
ME +9 (+3)
WI +7 (+2)
MN +6 (+2)
PA +6 (+2)
CO +5 (+2)
NH +5 (TOSSUP) (4)
IA +5 (TOSSUP) (7)
VA +4 (TOSSUP) (13)
OH +3 (TOSSUP) (20)
FL +2 (TOSSUP) (27)
IN = TOSSUP (+3 GOP) (11)
NC = TOSSUP (+2 GOP) (15)
EV SWING = (+97)
Currently GOP +5
NO! I say it makes them concealed carry libertarian patriots...but since that is not one of the boxes in the survey it will get ignored...
Note that the Iowa Senate is 26-24 in favor of the Dems. We are two seats away from a total majority, and only two votes have to be peeled off to pass legislation (there is no tie-breaker vote in Iowa, the measure simply fails for lack of majority).
“This is more libtard propaganda!!! Georgia is NOT competitive! Its a red state that has gotten redder since 2006...Dont believe the hype...”
It is rather amazing how the bulk of traditionally solid republican states are “competitive” on their map.
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