Skip to comments.Gallup: That electoral map for Obama in 2012 starting to look grim
Posted on 02/23/2011 3:29:18 PM PST by SeekAndFind
That’s not quite what Gallup explicitly says in its analysis, but it’s a rather inevitable conclusion when one sees the graphic presentation of the results. Barack Obama lost eleven points in his approval ratings on a state-by-state basis in 2010, and now the floor has Obama in danger of losing the next election. Bear in mind when looking at the legend that the “average” approval rating for Obama was 47% — and that Obama had a 50% or better rating only in the dark-green states:
Obama’s overall average approval rating in 2010 was 47%, down 11 percentage points from the 58% he recorded in his first calendar year in office. For purposes of this state-by-state analysis, Obama’s average is calculated for the calendar year, and is therefore slightly different than the yearly average calculated beginning with his inauguration on January 20, 2009.
Broadly speaking, residents of 20 states gave Obama an approval rating within three percentage points of his national average (between 43.8% and 49.8%). Twelve states plus the District of Columbia had average approval ratings above that range, and in 18 states, approval fell below it.
The graphic is striking. Obama only gets majority approval for his performance on the West Coast and the Northeast — and not even all of those areas. He holds his home state of Illinois and his birth state of Hawaii, both unsurprisingly, but between the coasts there exists a vast land of either indifference or outright disapproval. Traditional Democratic states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are wavering. The entire interior West has become outright hostile. More than half of the states have shown a double-digit decline in approval for Obama.
Presidents can win re-election with overall approval ratings below 50%, but that usually requires either a credible third-party challenge or an extraordinarily poor challenger. The economy would have to significantly improve to move these numbers in the direction where Obama can feel safe, and that seems unlikely to happen while Obama continues to press for regulatory adventurism.
Obama has a year at best to turn this around. He won the 2008 election at the peak of Bush fatigue by seven points nationwide. Continuing erosion in his standing puts the White House within the grasp of the GOP, especially if they nominate a credible candidate who can attract a “big tent” of those discontented with Obama.
Grim? Looks rosy to me, even if they did use some really ugly shades of green.
Gallup is Obotula friendly. It is actually much worse than this. In VA he is totally despised, so the average rating is bogus.
Wait until gas is $5/gallon and the rate of inflation is 8-10%.
Be mindful of the point that Obama could win again if he has an extraordinarily poor challenger. Most of the GOP hopefuls come to mind, particularly the ones with high poll #s.
Gas will be there soon but I would guess we already have 8 to 10% inflation - maybe even higher.
If the trend in gas prices continues, Barry Sh!t-for-brains is toast - unless GOP runs a 75 year old war-hero Senator.
RE: Be mindful of the point that Obama could win again if he has an extraordinarily poor challenger
From THE DOOMED PRESIDENT.
See here :
Pundits muse how Obama can save his presidency. He cannot. Obama, politically, is doomed. Republicans do not have a Reagan waiting in the wings, but that will not matter in 2012. All Republicans are attempting to don the mantle of Reagan, who has thoroughly captured in death what he could not in life, the heart of the Republican Party. This grand and overriding figure, like FDR and Lincoln, will dominate the rhetoric and policies of the Republican Party. Republicans will not commit hara-kiri in 2012.
So why is Obama certain to lose, even against very ordinary Republican nominees? Food, fuel and clothing are rising in price at dramatic rates. Food, especially, is critical. Every shopping cart in every grocery is pushed by an American who finds prices for ordinary things, like bread, milk, and cereal jumping higher and higher. At the checkout counter, the total keeps rising higher and higher. In the last six months, food prices have risen by over 27%. The size of the beef herds in America is at a fifty year low and the impact upon consumers will, inevitably, be sharp. Obama and his Kobe beef-eating friends, invariably rich, do not feel the pinch. All the rest of us do. Government could do a lot to lower food prices, from ending the Ethanol scam to overriding environmentalists who are turning some of the richest farmland on earth in California into a dust bowl.
How expensive will food be in 20 months, when Obama seeks re-election? Fuel costs are rising, and that will push food prices higher no matter what else happens. Retailers who are currently restocking their food supplies will have to recover the higher costs they are paying now by passing that on to the consumer later. Environmental regulators are making policy each day that will have its sting to the consumer months or years later. If Obama acted now, he could slow the rise in food costs, but not before November 2012.
Compounding the picture of Americans who get angrier with Obama each time they go shopping (or, for that matter, eat out at a fast food restaurant) is the fact that rising food costs are already creating turmoil in the rest of the world. A planet full of enraged people rioting for more food and for cheaper food creates a domino series of problems for Obama. Who do the unhappy people of the world blame for their problems? Us, no matter what, only this time these miserable folk will be partly right. Farmers, who along with oilmen are our most productive citizens, feed much of the planet. When the left acts on its fetish with ethanol and imposes environmentally caused droughts in California farmland, it hits our pockets, but in those parts of the world where malnutrition is reality, hunger turns to violence. Obama cannot quell this rage by symbolic gestures. The more he tries to finesse the real hunger of nations with conferences and rhetoric, the more the streets of these nations will turn against him.
The grimmer, the better.
I would bet he will spend $5 billion versus $700 million on ads this time. This means he can buy ALL media for all of 2012. He already owns ALL of TV and O’Reilly and Fox are just as bad.
He blanketed everything with $700 million from the middle east, china, et al. He will spend whatever it takes. $10 billion? No problem.
Inflation is just gettin started too.
My guess is she is going for an electoral win aka the Bush win in 2000. Watch the liberals heads explode over that one. She will go for WI, MN, OH, MI, IN and PA, the South, FLA and TX. Screw the NE and the West they are lost.
She is already playing the electoral map, and the likes of Barnes, Kruthammer and Kristol are too stupid to see it....
Wayne Gretsky in a mini-skirt she is, she is three moves a head and these toads are still adjusting their cups...
The last time the GOP had a chance like this, they wheeled out Bob Dole to run against Clinton.
...talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...
They’re trying to say he has “average” approval in half of the South? REALLY?!! Texas? Mississippi? Please!!