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Where Have All the Children Gone? Postmodern secular nations are committing suicide.
American Thinker ^ | 03/15/2011 | Jerome Koch

Posted on 03/15/2011 7:26:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Where have all the children gone? It's a problem that Mark Steyn first addressed in his book America Alone. Other than a piece Jonathan Last recently wrote for Weekly Standard, few if any reporters, pundits, politicians, or scholars seemed to take any interest. This is rather astonishing in so far as everything from our national security, economy, and future well-being depends on our ability to procreate. As Mark Steyn quipped, "...a people that won't multiply can't go forth or go anywhere. Those who do will shape the age we live in."

If one is to glimpse at the TFR (Total Fertility Rates, measured in children per female. One can get them via the CIA Fact Book, Wiki, and various UN publications) he would see that from a TFR of 4.78 in 1970, the global fertility rate fell to 2.56 in 2010. If one is to glance at individual nations, he will notice that some of the lowest rates are in Europe and the former USSR. Poland has a TFR of 1.26, Romania's is 1.20, and the Ukraine's is under 1.3. In Italy, Greece, Spain, France, the UK, Germany and Portugal the TFRs are below 1.5. Scandinavia as a whole fares a little better with TFR's just under 1.9 children per female. But, before these north European nations put themselves on their backs, it should be noted that Scandinavia has very large and fertile Islamic minority population. It is the immigrant populations that are reproducing, and not the hosts.

One will also notice that various Asian nations also have very low TFRs. Japan's is near what demographers call the lowest of the low of 1.1, while China has a TFR of 1.5. But China and Japan are not alone for Thailand and Vietnam have TFRs below 2.0. If one goes to Central and South America the numbers are better, but the trends are not.  Mexico had a TFR in 1970 of just below 6.9; today it is just over 2.2 children per female. As a matter of fact, this negative trend continues across Central and into much of South America. And while current TFRs in South America average above replacement rates, if the current trends continue they will soon fall below them.  

Even in Muslim nations the TFRs are falling. From Tunisia to Egypt the birthrates have fallen from over 6 children per female in 1970 to below 2.5 in 2010. The TFR for Tunisia in 2010 was only 1.86 children per female. Yes, Yemen, Afghanistan, as well as Somalia enjoy some of the highest birthrates in the world (generally above 6.0), but the trend in many East Asian nations is downward. Indonesia, for instance, has a TFR of only 2.19 compared to 5.6 in 1970. It is only in Africa where TFRs generally well are above replacement levels.

The fertility trends in the United States mirror global trends.  Jonathan Last pointed out that our fertility rates have been falling ever since our Founding.  From an average of over 7 children per female in  the late 18th Century to a nadir of less than 2.1 during the Great Depression, it was only the period 1945-1965 did our TFR's actually increase.  During the Baby Boom years the TFR reached a peak in 1960 (3.6 children per female).  But by 1980 our TFR sank to 1.8 . It currently stands at just over 2.0 (2.06) thanks in large part to immigration (both legal and illegal).  Last also makes the point that recent immigrants to the US adapt to their American hosts very quickly as far as fertility is concerned. There is little to fear that immigrant minorities as a group will reproduce themselves into a majority someday (a nativist fear that goes back over 100 years).  The just completed 2010 Census showed the slowest growth rates since the Great Depression.  Yes, the US's growth rate will continue to be positive, but the rate of positive change in our population has lost steam.  Only immigration allowed our population to increase.  It isn't inconceivable that our population could in fact contract this century if current trends are not reversed.

There are significant problems these plummeting birthrates create.  Economically the problems are obvious.  Governments in Europe and North America built elaborate and generous entitlement states since World War II.  But the inverted demographic pyramid of Europe and North America already are causing significant strains on the public purse.  The US alone has $100 trillion worth of unfunded public liabilities.  For Europe the problems are not just economic; growing Muslim populations in the UK, Belgium, Spain, Italy, and France foretell both social and political unrest, as Muslims will certainly continue to clash with its aging, gentrified host society.  As the number of native Europeans halves every 35 years, the proportion of Muslims will proportionally increase.  A decade ago, European experts laughed at the predictions of a future Eurabia.  They no longer laugh.

Another significant ramification of a rapidly aging society was brought to light with the earthquake/tsunami disaster that hit Japan on 11 March.  Lost in the drama of the nuclear power plant meltdowns was the horrific story of Harumi Wanatabe.  In an interview with reporters, Harumi described how her elderly parents were swept away by the tsunami as she desperately attempted to save them.  The tsunami hit her village only 30 minutes after the earthquake stopped.  Harumi's parents were too frail to move quickly.  One wonders how many of the victims of this tragedy will be the elderly.  Japan for decades has had some of the lowest fertility rates in the world.  The elderly now make up the fastest growing segment of its population.  Most of these elderly didn't have many children; and their children produced even fewer grandchildren.  Like Europe during the tragic heat wave of 2003 (in which the majority of the 35,000 victims were elderly), Japan is beginning to experience its demographic decline in a most painful way.

The United States is at a crossroads.  We are not yet in the position of Europe, China, and Japan.  But we are not that far behind.  As the statistics point out, we will not be able to rely on immigration much longer to grow our population.  Procreation of course is a very private matter, but it does have very public ramifications.  And history has shown that no amount of government largess encourages couples to procreate.  European nations offered very generous inducements for decades, but their fertility rates continue to drop.  Jonathon Last noted that fertility rates in many ways are determined by religious beliefs.  From this perspective the US, is more secular than is advertised. And unless things change quickly, we will suffer the same fate of Europe and Japan.  Postmodern secular nations are committing suicide.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: abortion; contraception; demographics; lifehate; moralabsolutes; population; populationcontrol; postmodern; prolife; secularism
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1 posted on 03/15/2011 7:27:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

So even if there were no God to punish us for the slaughter, reality would still punish us.


2 posted on 03/15/2011 7:29:33 AM PDT by 668 - Neighbor of the Beast (Public education is WELFARE.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Aborting 50 million babies over the years doesn’t help matters much either. Maybe that is the plan.


3 posted on 03/15/2011 7:30:17 AM PDT by RC2
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To: SeekAndFind
I've been detecting a very strong undercurrent in news coverage of Japan that the earth just has too many people.

Our energy needs are too high, our cities are too crowded, our food production is inadequate, we have too many elderly and vulnerable people to take care of, we occupy too much land, it's the wrong land, blah, blah, blah.

At its heart, the Left is obsessed with diminishing the human population. They are a cult of death.

4 posted on 03/15/2011 7:31:55 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy
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To: 668 - Neighbor of the Beast

You got that right.
I am doing my part with a third child on the way. That said I fear for what kind of a country they are growing up in.
Good thing God is still in control, even when things look like hell.


5 posted on 03/15/2011 7:32:07 AM PDT by Clump (the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: SeekAndFind

The contraceptive/abortive mentality leans heavily left....

It also shifts power to those who DO have children.


6 posted on 03/15/2011 7:32:49 AM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: ClearCase_guy

They hate people, because their ideological father hates people.


7 posted on 03/15/2011 7:33:34 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: SeekAndFind

It takes a Village to commit Obamacide.


8 posted on 03/15/2011 7:34:01 AM PDT by screaminsunshine (34 States)
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To: SumProVita
The contraceptive/abortive mentality leans heavily left.... It also shifts power to those who DO have children.

You're kidding, right? Look at any major city in the U.S. to find hordes of low income children. Many municipalities are being over run with people standing with their hands out.

9 posted on 03/15/2011 7:35:49 AM PDT by raybbr (People who still support Obama are either a Marxist or a moron.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t know what the answer is. It seems to be that kids are a huge investment, in time, money , resources etc. and in return they are supposed to take care of you when you can no longer work and do for yourself. What’s happened is that governments have stepped in and taken over this function, so instinctively people are avoiding having kids because, what the heck, we don’t need them. People don’t think this on a conscious level but subconsciously. Again this is pure speculation on my part, but it’s the only explanation I can come up with.


10 posted on 03/15/2011 7:36:07 AM PDT by YankeeReb
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To: SeekAndFind
This has been floated within the US Intelligence agencies for at least the last ten years. The demographic predictions for China are truly staggering.

The upside in the US is that there are some groups which still have a very high birth rate; fundamental Baptists and Catholics. The Democratic party actually commissioned a study which showed that there base was graying while the conservative base was actually getting younger.

11 posted on 03/15/2011 7:38:22 AM PDT by wbarmy (I chose to be a sheepdog once I saw what happens to the sheep.)
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To: SeekAndFind

In addition to the loss of aborted babies, higher taxes mean couples both have to work and can’t afford to have as many children. The left is killing us every time we turn around.


12 posted on 03/15/2011 7:42:20 AM PDT by Republic of Texas (Socialism Always Fails)
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To: YankeeReb
instinctively people are avoiding having kids because,
what the heck, we don’t need them.

A galling statement
and at a subconscious level,
probably driving a lot of
self-destructive behavior

13 posted on 03/15/2011 7:42:45 AM PDT by HangnJudge
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To: SeekAndFind
From an average of over 7 children per female in the late 18th Century to a nadir of less than 2.1 during the Great Depression, it was only the period 1945-1965 did our TFR's actually increase.

Whereas, I agree that our reproduction rate is a concern, it's worth noting the infant mortality rate has declined significantly since the late 18th century, as has the mortality rate of children. Comparing rates from the late 18th century to present day needs to take that into account to be meaningful.

14 posted on 03/15/2011 7:43:29 AM PDT by FourPeas
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To: raybbr

No, I am NOT kidding. Look at the groups where more children can be found. These are the groups that will have future power.....for better ...or WORSE.


15 posted on 03/15/2011 7:43:59 AM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: 668 - Neighbor of the Beast
"So even if there were no God to punish us for the slaughter, reality would still punish us."

People living in the West should have more children if we expect our superior set of values, based on Judao-Christianianity and reason to survive. Otherwise there are several inferior value systems which will replace them such as Islamofacism, Multiculturalism, Afrocentrism and Communism.

16 posted on 03/15/2011 7:50:24 AM PDT by wmileo
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To: SeekAndFind

We just had a thread on here that claimed that the kids born 2001-2011 have more children than the boomers. I can see that as I have seen people having way more than two kids now a days. My parents had 3 children and we have 9 children between us. Many of my high school class has 3 and 4 children. A few even have 5 children.


17 posted on 03/15/2011 7:57:01 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: FourPeas
"it's worth noting the infant mortality rate has declined significantly since the late 18th century, as has the mortality rate of children. Comparing rates from the late 18th century to present day needs to take that into account to be meaningful. "

Agreed but demographics don't lie. Ethnic Russian men have the lowest average life expectancy in a country where the Muslims population is increasing at an alarming rate. 50 years from now, what will the country known as Russia be like?

Ethnic Spaniards in Spain, where Leftist thinking(or lack there of) has taken hold and the birth rate is the lowest in Western Europe, will disappear in three generations.

18 posted on 03/15/2011 7:59:29 AM PDT by wmileo
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To: SeekAndFind

The liberals think that our planet can only sustain 20 million people, and they should all be liberals. They think that euthenasia and starvation are commendable means of reducing the population. If you want to know why our fertility rates are falling, just watch tv. Young men don’t want the responsibility of children, they want to be children. Look at what happened to the Spears girls after they had children. Where are they? The young bimbettes want to be worshipped and Hollywood doesn’t worship a woman with a baby on her hip.


19 posted on 03/15/2011 8:02:21 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: SeekAndFind

Islam is a culture which does not innovate, engineer or create anything technologically. They drive cars and fly planes only because they consume off of developed countries.

Were the world to fall to Islam, there would be massive loss of life due to war and starvation, followed by the various nations falling into primitive technology and primal culture as it was 1500 years ago following the fall of Rome.


20 posted on 03/15/2011 8:04:24 AM PDT by lurk
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To: SumProVita

We are doing our part, 5 kids so far. I have drawn a simple chart to show my children how Christians can have a multi-generational impact on our culture. If we were to have 2 children, who then each had 2 children, we would have 6 votes (adding the two generations) to impact the direction of our nation’s policy.

If we were to have 10 children who then each had 10 children, we would have 110 votes to impact the direction of our nation’s policy.

It’s a greatly simplified example for my children, but I believe there is a reason that God consistently told his people to be fruitful and multiply...even when they were taken into captivity. If you want your culture to survive, you can’t allow your population to shrink.

The secular documentary “Demographic Winter” is a must watch movie on this topic. If there were any real journalists left in the USA, this coming crisis would be making headlines across the country.


21 posted on 03/15/2011 8:05:09 AM PDT by Spudx7
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To: FourPeas
It's not just infant mortality rates that have been declining over time -- it's mortality rates in all age groups.

We're living longer than ever before simply because a lot of the things that used to kill us in our teens, our twenties, our thirties, etc. either don't affect us anymore or are treated easily through modern medicine.

I heard some futurist on the radio a few years ago, and he said that one of the defining characteristics of this modern age is that something like 99% of the population will die as a result of whatever they were genetically predisposed to die of.

22 posted on 03/15/2011 8:05:58 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: napscoordinator

My circle has lots. 4 for me, 4 for my best friend, 3 for my doctor friend. We are rural southerners.


23 posted on 03/15/2011 8:06:06 AM PDT by smaug6 (We can't afford to be innocent!! Stand up and face the enemy.)
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To: SeekAndFind; 185JHP; 230FMJ; AKA Elena; Albion Wilde; Aleighanne; Alexander Rubin; ...
Moral Absolutes Ping!

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24 posted on 03/15/2011 8:08:46 AM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: SeekAndFind

Well, I’m doing my part with my third child on the way. What gets me are the yuppy career women that waited and waited to have kids until their late 30’s. They shunted their reproductive cycles with chemicals for years, and now they expect to get pregnant easily. Maybe they had an abortion in their late teens or early 20’s.

I’m not religous and never go to church. I could not be more pro-life. I know too many Catholic and Jewish girls who’ve had abortions. No sympathy for them as they try and have kids later in life. Too bad, the world needs more white people. Sounds bad, but it’s true.


25 posted on 03/15/2011 8:15:38 AM PDT by strider44
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To: napscoordinator
the kids born 2001-2011 have more children than the boomers

If people born between 2001 and 2011 have children already, there is something deeply, seriously, wrong going on.

26 posted on 03/15/2011 8:17:39 AM PDT by Tax-chick (Nadie me ama como Jesus.)
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To: blueunicorn6

I agree that many men want to be/are children. Also, it is very costly now to have them.


27 posted on 03/15/2011 8:17:39 AM PDT by kabumpo (Kabumpo)
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To: Spudx7

;-)

We have had 5 children too! I often chuckle at the notion of “not being able to afford them.” With the help of God and hard work, all needs were amply provided for.

As an aside for non-believers: NO, we do not support *indiscriminate” procreation. We believe in cooperating with the Divine Will.


28 posted on 03/15/2011 8:18:19 AM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: kabumpo

Costly to have men? You’d better believe it! None of my kids bought a $35,000 pickup truck!


29 posted on 03/15/2011 8:19:07 AM PDT by Tax-chick (Nadie me ama como Jesus.)
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To: wbarmy
The demographic predictions for China are truly staggering.

If China put in a Social Security system, and quit brutalizing citizens - birth rates would go down. The best 'social security' in third world countries currently is still 'sons'...

30 posted on 03/15/2011 8:19:51 AM PDT by GOPJ (http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php - It's only uncivil when someone on the right does it.- Laz)
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To: Spudx7

There’s also a book you might want to read: CHILDREN OF MEN by PD James. It’s fiction, but it demonstrates the natural outcome of foolish and/or evil thinking.


31 posted on 03/15/2011 8:25:06 AM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: wbarmy

My four are planning at least four each and after having old parents like me they want to start their families early and have many. I am helping out by providing them with land towards their houses.


32 posted on 03/15/2011 8:29:13 AM PDT by Chickensoup (“If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stomping on a human face — forever.” Orwell)
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To: SeekAndFind

Well, the muzzies NEED a lot of kids. They use them up like .22 shorts.


33 posted on 03/15/2011 8:31:13 AM PDT by arrdon (Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter.)
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To: Clump

Bless you! We also had 3 children (wish I had gone on to have at least one more). We now have 5 grandchildren and one on the way. It’s sad that government policies make it so expensive to have large families. We not only have to support our own families, but we pay taxes to support irresponsible people who have children they cannot support.


34 posted on 03/15/2011 8:32:30 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX
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To: SeekAndFind

Its taxes. the Western socialist democracies tax their residents beyond the ability to raise children. It return for which , they “promise” to care for you in your old age.

A large family assures that at least one child will be there to provides for your care and comfort as you age.

follow the cash trail..always...when nothing else makes sense.


35 posted on 03/15/2011 8:34:19 AM PDT by mo ("If you understand, no explanation is needed; if you do not, no explanation is possible")
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To: Republic of Texas

“... higher taxes mean couples both have to work and can’t afford children”.

Not that long ago, Dad’s could work and Mom would stay at home with the kids. They were still able to afford a vacation and have a good life. With the tax situation, parents are forced to deal with childcare issues and other problems never really dealt with before. As a result, fewer children are born to parents who want to give their kid’s an average life. IMHO


36 posted on 03/15/2011 8:37:58 AM PDT by momtothree
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To: wbarmy

Uh ... those results may have been true in 1977, but not today!

Their base of white liberals is shrinking due to demographic issues and them abandoning the Dem party. However, all of the assorted ethnic groups that are considered “diversity candidates” are breeding like rabbits on fertility drugs. In other words, the LaRaza contingent will take over the dem party, along with CAIR, NAACP, etc. and end up being the majority of the US population.


37 posted on 03/15/2011 8:40:06 AM PDT by MrInvisible
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To: SumProVita

Sounds like a good read, I’ll look for it here.

I know that 5 children is considered a “large” family, but I don’t feel like we are, maybe if we have 6 ;-)? My parents worry that my husband and I have done the most foolish thing on the planet—inviting poverty into our lives, yet they love each one of our children. God continues to provide our daily bread, somehow we keep everyone fed and clothed.


38 posted on 03/15/2011 8:40:22 AM PDT by Spudx7
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To: strider44

We have 5 girls. (Czech/Italian ancestry.)


39 posted on 03/15/2011 8:44:54 AM PDT by MrInvisible
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To: Spudx7

I have never felt it was “large” either. However, when the children were smaller, I was always asked (with some sense of incredulity), “Are they ALL yours?.” Lol!

Everyone helps and supports each other. Are there difficulties? Of COURSE....but if we had no problems...we’d never grow and mature. Our children are all grown now and all contribute very positively to society...and we are a close family.

By the way, when the relatives give you the “poverty meme”, remind them that the Son of God chose to be born into what was considered “poverty.”

;-)


40 posted on 03/15/2011 8:51:30 AM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: kabumpo

Same with women.


41 posted on 03/15/2011 8:56:56 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: SumProVita
I recently had an elderly gentlemen say,”You brought some of the neighbor's kids with you today.” I loved his bewildered “Aaahhh...” when I said they were all mine! I was tempted to respond that yes, grocery shopping with only two children just isn't challenging enough so I need to bring a few more to enhance the experience.

We are quite a spectacle in the grocery store, one cart for the baby in the carseat, one for groceries, and two “shopper in training” carts for my little girls. Six people and a procession of four carts. We are like our own little parade through Cub Foods.

42 posted on 03/15/2011 9:11:16 AM PDT by Spudx7
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To: Tax-chick

lol. Wow....that was not expressed correctly at all.


43 posted on 03/15/2011 9:19:18 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: Republic of Texas

Bingo. This is why I have only one child....

I can provide for my one child a pretty good lifestyle, upbringing ang education. I would have to decrease what I can offer each child for every other I have besides my wife and I have very little time. I work two jobs (1 full 1 part)and she works a fulltime and goes to school part-time.

Our parents and many baby boomers were the ones to reep the rewards of the bubble-burst-bubble economies. They bought their first house for $14,000 sold it for $32,000,built there second home for $26,000 and sold it for $230,000, built their third home for $135,000 and just sold it for $198,000. Most of us today won’t see that kind of returns in our lifetime.

I am so upside down on the my home that I won’t see anything like the growth they experienced for many years if ever. Can’t sell or refinance. If the need ever arises to have to relocate for work we are screwed. Our mobility is lost for many years to come. I really wish I had looked at a home as shelter and not get caught up in the investment hype. Oh well.

Anyway, yup, I love being a father but relistically I can’t bring another child into this world. Can’t afford it and don’t want to bring them into the misery headed our way.


44 posted on 03/15/2011 9:27:26 AM PDT by bbernard
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To: MrInvisible

Wow! 5 girls...We’re hoping for a girl. I have two sons and my brother has 3 sons. No girls yet for any of the grandparents. We’ll find out the sex this Thursday. Just healthy is all I care about...


45 posted on 03/15/2011 9:30:01 AM PDT by strider44
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To: MrB
They hate people, because their ideological father hates people.

Look at what both Pharaoh & Herod did to babies under age 2. They're all in the same league.

46 posted on 03/15/2011 9:32:43 AM PDT by Colofornian
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To: bbernard

I have 5 kids and money has been tight due to the economy too. But the scenario you’re talking about is the same scenario most people are in. Yet they still have more than 1 kid. It’s just a cop out. It really is. Everybody is busy. Making more money so you can have more “stuff” is fleeting. If you’re truly serious about doing your part for the future of the country, then you’ll have more kids. Otherwise, it’s just talk. That’s your responsibility to produce more good productive people. At just 1 kid, you have no legacy. It takes at least 2 kids to replace your family. When you’re gone, your child will be the lone representative of your family.


47 posted on 03/15/2011 9:34:34 AM PDT by MrInvisible
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To: strider44

Good luck!

We’ve contemplated the idea of adopting maybe 2 boys from Russia.


48 posted on 03/15/2011 9:36:22 AM PDT by MrInvisible
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To: MrInvisible

I’ll say something else about this issue. When you have a bunch of kids and you walk into some place, you suddenly become the majority there and have more power. Your kids have siblings that can come to their aid. You as an elderly person will have the benefit of having a bunch of kids to help, assuming you raised them right.


49 posted on 03/15/2011 9:39:11 AM PDT by MrInvisible
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To: MrInvisible

Grew up with three siblings. I agree with you. My wife is an only child and we are the care fivers for seven octogenarians; aunts and uncles who never married. My side of the family has a lot less elder stress. It is worth having more kids. I will have someone to clean up after me when I am old.


50 posted on 03/15/2011 9:42:28 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (How long before the Mall becomes Tahifir Sq?)
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