Skip to comments.Elites Way Off on Palin Electability: Part 1 – The Floor
Posted on 03/18/2011 4:53:11 PM PDT by WatchYourself
This article is the first in a series examining Sarah Palins electability, and why the Republican, Liberal, and Media Elites are using bias over analysis.
As we consider the electability of candidates, namely Sarah Palin, we first must consider the candidates floors. A floor is a candidates guaranteed minimum percentage based on current polling data, accounting for all factors. Obamas floor, or guaranteed vote, according to analysis of current polling is 43%. What this means is that 43% of people will vote for Barack Obama no matter who his opponent is. It could be much higher, but probably not any lower. This number is arrived at by reviewing 6 months of polling date from all polling firms. This is Obamas floor because, depending on his opponent, his support grows or shrinks, but rarely below 43%.
Sarah Palins current floor is determined to be 39% as she typically registers 39% or 40% in head-to-head match-ups against Obama (not counting 3-way race polling). So today, the floor stands at Obama 43% and Palin 39%, or Obama +4. Yes, I know what the skeptics/elites would say to this: But Obama always scores much higher than 43% against Palin, duh! That is true, but the point of determining a floor is to understand a candidates solid support. Elites prefer to go light on analysis and heavy on drama. If a poll shows Obama scoring 53% against one candidate and 42% against another, his support is quite volatile, and can be changed as information is acquired.
What does this all mean? For one, it is good news for Sarah Palin. Figure that almost all media coverage of Palin for the previous 2 years has been incredibly negative, accusatory, insulting, misleading, and downright mean, to quote Michelle Obama. Its amazing to read something Palin writes or says and see how it is maliciously twisted into a salacious sound bite. Unfortunately most people at this stage know the sound bite, but not what she actually says. Meanwhile, despite being generally inept, but receiving glorious and glowing coverage from the media, Obamas floor is at a mere 43%. This means that all the positive coverage on the world for Obama and all the negative coverage in the world for Palin results only in a 4 point spread.
When we toss in candidate favorable/unfavorable opinion we find a very interesting fact. Lets not pretend that Palins current favorables are high. In reality, they shouldnt be. We have to remember that 80% of the populations opinion of Palin is currently formed by the medias representation of her. Or, misrepresentation if you prefer, and I do. But Sarah Palin heavily outperforms her favorability rating, in many cases by 2-1 margins. Meanwhile Obama underperforms his favorable rating, usually by 10-15 percentage points. So far more people will vote for Sarah Palin even with a negative opinion of her while far fewer people with a positive opinion of Obama will vote for him. This only works in Palins favor as she is able to make the case for herself and opinions of her arise. If a large percentage of people will vote for her when they do not like her, what happens when the percentage of people who do like her increases dramatically, as will inevitably be the case. So, how does Palin raise her floor? The good news is: things couldnt get worse for Palin. The majority of current opinion about Palin is formed not on thoughtful consideration of her, but on minimally whimsical knowledge bandied about by frivolous media and entertainment personalities. Most voters, sadly, know more about Charlie Sheen and American Idol than they do about Sarah Palin or Barack Obama. Their opinion of her is that she is a ditzy beauty queen who is obviously controversial and not electable, and very, very right wing. After all, we just got our news from Saturday Night Live, Politico, or The Daily Show, so it must be true.
But what happens when 100 Million people tune into a debate between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin? What happens when she speaks freely and convincingly in that debate, as she did in a great interview with the Long Island Association? And then what happens when people realize that she isnt the moron they have attempted to portray her as? That she can speak without uhhhs and ummms like someone else cannot? And when Palin releases, yes I will say it, Reaganesque commercials that are inspiring and uplifting, you know about America being that shining city on a something or another? How quickly will opinion change when people realize that Sarah Palin is not what the media have portrayed her as?
And about those controversial opinions she holds? What happens when Americans realize that it is those controversial opinions that the majority of Americans agree with, often by wide margins. Well, that is a matter for Part 2 of Elites Way Off on Palin Electability.
Good article, well worth thinking about by those who say Palin can’t win.
I wonder if pissant is lurking, reading it, and gnashing his teeth that he can’t dis it... at least not under the name pissant.
Although the ‘what-if’s’ are necessary at this stage - 20 months prior to the 2012 presidential election - I find this a cogent analysis that is more realistic than most and factors in elements that most Palin pieces, even those with a positive spin, usually ignore. Refreshing.
Thanks for the post, it is what I believe as well but the long knives are yet to be drawn. It’s elites vs common sense conservatives, we better win one for the “gipper”!
NOTE to Local Talk Radio: There ain't none...
Good write up but you left a major element out. The poll numbers that show “others” doing better in the polls. Like Mitt or Huck. Their poll numbers and favs unlike Obama or Palin’s are based on 2 years of “good” press do not represent their “floor” Once the negative attacks start on Mitt or huck thier negatives will rise, their poll numbers will sink and thier floor will be found. My bet is that floor is below 39%
real conservatives will not turn out for those clowns....
You can bet your booty that he went and bought his-self a new laptop so he can re-register here. Count on it; he lives for this shit.
"... all the positive coverage on the world for Obama and all the negative coverage in the world for Palin results only in a 4 point spread. "
What got Pissant zotted? One too many Palin threads or a rant on something else?
i before e except after c-——LOL!
Like it. Make that love it.
I didn’t know pissant was zotted. Oh, well.
I voted for her once in 08 and I’ll do it AGAIN-!!
“... all the positive coverage on the world for Obama and all the negative coverage in the world for Palin results only in a 4 point spread. “
Interesting analysis. Looking forward to part 2.
Your Precious? THe one with Tammy Bruce still on her breath?
52 posted on Thursday, March 17, 2011 11:02:42 AM by pissant ((Bachmann 2012 - Freepmail to get on/off PING list))
He got, not surprisingly, a little too smutty for Jim to put up with any longer.
Palin needs to be on the same stage with the other prospects. I don’t think they are looking forward to that. When she stood next to Fey,her imitator, the difference was striking. The woman has presence.
Great REad, not too long, thank you! Great facts I never contemplated before! Go Sarah!
The science of polling has gone out the window since partisan media outlets have taken over polling. JMHO sorry!
I would love to see a time when polling was simply not allowed for elections. Yes I know it will never happen, but wouldn`t it be great? I think it would be great, people could begin to think for themselves.
Michelle Bachman is my first choice, Sarah Palin is second. If the GOP elects a McCain clone (i.e. Romney, Huckster), I’m writing in Palin. Better to have a blatant enemy in the White House than a chameleon.
Thanks for the ping!
Just wait. Sarah will surprise us all.
Dittos to that. I’m sensing a whole lot of people out there who are not talking who will vote for Sarah.
Thanks for the update - that’s too bad. He wasn’t always a PDS Advocate. He made some good contributions for many years.
Thanks for the specific post. Yuck...
If she runs, actually giving out a message that can't be screened by the libs, they are in big trouble.
Are the names “cockroach”, “stinkbug”, “louse”, “vermin”, or “Dutch oven” taken?
LOL! LOL! Man you're hitting on all 8 cylinders tonight.
If you follow Rush Limbaugh, there was a female caller named Angela three days ago who claimed to be a conservative from Virginia and went on and on why she could not support Sarah Palin in the GOP primary season.
On many blogs posters ridiculed and slammed her for her comments but what many people missed was this one short line:
“If the conservatives put Sarah Palin up against Barack Obama, I would vote for Sarah Palin...”
You would have thought by the tone of her voice that this woman would have decided to vote for Obama or 3rd party rather than Palin.
Imho there are millions of Angela’s out there who don’t particularly like Palin or consider her their cup of tea but cannot bring themselves to vote for Obama but instead very reluctantly vote for the party nominee.
This is why Palin will win. In this case I’d rather have the devil I don’t know than the devil I do know.
What I think this all boils down to is....does Sarah Palin want the job?
If she does, she has an excellent chance of winning. She is smart, has incredibly good political instincts, is generally a rock solid conservative and can connect with people.
The thing that is most telling is how the leftmedia started attacking her almost the moment that she ran for VP. They knew, in the marrow of their bones, that she was a threat. They were right.
Maybe he can re-register as "pissdungbeatle"
Maybe he can re-register as "pissdungbeatle"
I agree, it is a good approach. But the “what if Sarah beats Obama in a debate” ignores the fact that the media won’t LET her “win” the debate, even if she does. So I fail to see how the high negatives that the article acknowledges will be offset by a media-controlled debate.
Obama has to run on a poor record and lots of failed expectations. Yes, the media will always pretend he's a 'winner' but the lousy economy and his continued show of weakness on all fronts cannot be hidden, even with media puff pieces. A lot of 'independent' voters wanted Obama to 'make good' and justify their effectively affirmative action vote for, all together now: 'The First Black President". Obama's failures are stacking up and even less politically astute voters are beginning to notice. This will not improve in 12-18 months and may get much worse. Enter Sarah Palin.
High 'negatives' today? Unfortunately, yes, thanks to non-stop bashing from the media, Hollywood and the political left, which is much present in our culture and has an influence that cannot be denied. However, 30 years ago, prior to cable news networks and the internet, Ronald Reagan was disparaged by the leftist media and comedians mocked him as a senile, over-the-hill 'B-movie' actor, ignoring his accomplishments and sound policies. Even so, Reagan managed to cut through the BS in the single debate he had with President Jimmy Carter. Reagan's "there you go again" response to some of Carter's statements helped diminish the perception of the already-weakened Carter and when Reagan looked into the camera and posed the rhetorical question to Americans: "are you better off today than four years ago?" Jimmy Carter was, effectively, defeated.
No, Sarah Palin isn't Ronald Reagan and this isn't 1980 but Obama is weakened by his disastrous (socialist) fiscal policies, his diffidence in the face of numerous global crises and his perception of being aloof and disconnected to the problems around him. Like the feckless Jimmy Carter in 1980, he is more and more being perceived as inept at worst and, at best, 'not presidential' which translates to 'not a leader'. Palin has a lot to overcome, granted, but she is 'authentic' where Obama is plastic and the American people are getting tired of Obama's poses minus any substantive action. A presidential debate where Obama doesn't have his teleprompter to rely on and where Sarah Palin demonstrates leadership, a command of the facts and a sound way forward without equivocation or using weasel words, along with her naturally optimistic demeanor (similar to Reagan in that regard) would overcome a lot of media BS about her being 'stupid' and so on, just as Ronald Reagan dispelled much of the 'dangerous, dopey, over-the-hill B-movie actor' characterization the left had smeared him with prior to the 1980 presidential debate. Of course, any serious mis-step by Palin could be politically fatal but that is a chance she is going to have to take and I believe she'll not only do so, but do so successfully.
Not to argue, but there is a big difference between Carter and Obama, and it is that Carter’s negatives were BAD and the media abandoned him. They didn’t like RR, but they didn’t like Jimmah. You will have none of that with Zero. And like it or not, that will make a big difference for any Republican running against him, especially Palin.
You are missing the femme factor there, too. Just as blacks who might not like Obama voted for the brother, women may well be swayed to vote for a woman if for no other reason. Hillary may mount a primary challenge against Obama counting on a similar phenomenon.
Here's a link to Part 2.