Skip to comments.Calculated trajectory of Japan nuclear plume over America using the NOAA HYSPLIT model
Posted on 03/21/2011 8:08:07 PM PDT by Milhous
Air parcel trajectories found using the NOAA HYSPLIT model, as a function of plume height, for release over the Fukushima power plant. Each figure corresponds to release on the indicated date. The top panel of shows the forecast projection of the plumes, with each circle representing a 24 hr period of time. The uncertainty in location is represented by the line segments drawn through each circle (these uncertainties are difficult to estimate at later portions of the trajectory).
The bottom panel of shows the forecast altitude of the trajectory. Dotted lines indicate where rainfall occurs.
The entry point into North America of each trajectory is indicated.
The concentration of hazardous material is greatly reduced by mixing along the trajectories. In addition, most hazardous materials are removed by rainfall
Japan Radiation Plume heading for North America. Daily Projections and Trajectories indicate March 23rd as Fallout Day!
A group of atmospheric scientists from the University of Maryland are currently using a very sophisticated tool to help them examine atmospheric patterns originating from Japan. They have been using the tool for quite some time, enabling them to make simplified projected models of atmospheric transportation and trajectory system on daily basis. What have they discovered from their projections and trajectories? Read on to find out.
Japan Radiation Plume heading for North America. Daily Projections and Trajectories indicate March 23rd as Nuclear Fallout Day
The tool they were using was originally developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It is called HYSPLIT or better known as the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model. I wont go into the technical details but you can follow the link that I have provided earlier to get a better picture on the methods used to create those atmospheric transportation projection and trajectory models.
Im more interested in their latest projection data. According to their latest data, Japan radiation plume suspended somewhere in the 3-km altitude will reach North America on March 23rd! Radiation plumes suspended in the 3.5 to 5-km altitudes will hit North America the next day! Oh boy! You can get more information from the following screenshot.
Bear in mind that their daily atmospheric transportation projection and trajectory models do not consider the decay of radioactive compounds. It sure looks dangerous at a glance but the radiation plume might decay and poses no harm once it reaches North America. I hope!
1He that dwelleth in the secret place of the most High shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty.
2I will say of the LORD, He is my refuge and my fortress: my God; in him will I trust.
3Surely he shall deliver thee from the snare of the fowler, and from the noisome pestilence.
4He shall cover thee with his feathers, and under his wings shalt thou trust: his truth shall be thy shield and buckler.
5Thou shalt not be afraid for the terror by night; nor for the arrow that flieth by day;
6Nor for the pestilence that walketh in darkness; nor for the destruction that wasteth at noonday.
7A thousand shall fall at thy side, and ten thousand at thy right hand; but it shall not come nigh thee.
8Only with thine eyes shalt thou behold and see the reward of the wicked.
9Because thou hast made the LORD, which is my refuge, even the most High, thy habitation;
10There shall no evil befall thee, neither shall any plague come nigh thy dwelling.
11For he shall give his angels charge over thee, to keep thee in all thy ways.
12They shall bear thee up in their hands, lest thou dash thy foot against a stone.
13Thou shalt tread upon the lion and adder: the young lion and the dragon shalt thou trample under feet.
14Because he hath set his love upon me, therefore will I deliver him: I will set him on high, because he hath known my name.
15He shall call upon me, and I will answer him: I will be with him in trouble; I will deliver him, and honour him.
16With long life will I satisfy him, and shew him my salvation.
23and while they were sailing he fell asleep. A squall blew over the lake, and they were taking in water and were in danger.
24They came and woke him saying, "Master, master, we are perishing!" He awakened, rebuked the wind and the waves, and they subsided and there was a calm.
25Then he asked them, "Where is your faith?" But they were filled with awe and amazed and said to one another, "Who then is this, who commands even the winds and the sea, and they obey him?"
I bet cigarettes kill me long before radiation from Fukushima Daichi.
Please don’t take those pills unless you need them. Western USA, you don’t right now.
Yeah I’m pretty sure I’ll live for a few more days.
Telling a smoker is fun. They rant while I roll one.
Pfft. That plume will never affect me. It’s not like I’m going to keel over in the mid
I'll take it even further than that - I bet second hand smoke will kill me long before radiation from Fukushima Daichi.
How's that for downplaying it even more?
The head of the physics department at the local college, and a friend of mine, is looking forward to giving his
students the CHALLENGE of trying to identify any radiation
increase from the Japan accident.
No hair off my a$$.
Ooh, good idea. I’ll have to suggest it to Dr. Cantrell when he comes in tomorrow to pay for his new cabinets.
Here’s a hint for those students. Use the same technique the United States used to detect the first Soviet detonated atom bomb.
Hey Kracker (as Rev. Wright would say):
If there is enough radiation, you will not only not have any hair on your ass, but you will have no ass (and no balls, or “great balls of fire”), you will glow in the dark, and you will be able to light cigarettes with your fingertips (ala “Firestarter” in X-Men).
As the old Christmas song, updated, would go:
“Let it glow, let it glow, let it glow”
I just saw “Die Hard 2” for the second time this week. Catchy tune.
When is it supposed to hit Chicago? I have my Geiger counter ready.
Heres a hint for those students. Use the same technique the United States used to detect the first Soviet detonated atom bomb.
I don’t know what that is, but I’ll bet Doc does. We’re
both from the “duck and cover” generation.
Oh dear. It's raining that day here on the California coast.
Guess I'll take my umbrella.
Ping of interest
Everyone under their desk!
But - that has nothing to do with radiation in the air, lol.
According to the graphic above, the radioactive plume is measured in kilometers from the surface. The US, as I recall, used high altitude balloons carrying detection equipment...
And I took a quick look around and I found the Air Force used B-29s equipped with filters to trap airborne debris. But I was thinking of a more practical way for students was to use balloons that the USAF also employed to air sample at altitude:
The map shows clearly why Obama is in South America.
Famous Civil Defense film for children in which Bert the Turtle shows what to do in case of atomic attack.
An A+ for you! Nancy Pelosi’s coincidentally MIA from the continent too.
It’s like a really bad sunburn
But 0bama will tax anyone that gets a tanning from it
Hillary’s also MIA from the continent.
LOL! -- but, she was feeling "unwell".
Is that just for Illinois? Trace radiactive iodine has been recorded in Washington state.
I dont know what that is, but Ill bet Doc does. Were
both from the duck and cover generation.
I renumber all those drills too
I started running a background with my HPGe detector last Friday.
This morning a low confidence Cs-134 peak showed up above MDA. Not enough to call it yet.
Oh, by the way, I heard on NHK English tonight that seawater samples near the plants showed I-131, Cs-134, and Cs-137 (typical fission products).
Personally I won’t put much stock in a chart from a state university, The so called scientists that created it probably created a bunch of global warming charts for the Democrat party.
NOAA produces short range (a few days) WX forecasts for the US and Canada. Aviation pilots use NOAA products to choose between Visual Flight Rules or Instrument Flight Rules. Local TV news uses NOAA forecasts for weather forecasting.
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