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Dianne Feinstein in electoral trouble? So says the latest Harris Poll.
Hotair ^ | 03/24/2011 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 03/24/2011 11:59:10 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

A new poll from California shows Dianne Feinstein falling below 50% in re-elect support, a rating than in any other state might mean something. McClatchy sends up the red flag from the latest Harris Poll, which gives the four-term Senator only a +4 on support for a fifth term, hitting below 50%:

Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein remains more popular among California voters than her colleague Barbara Boxer, a new Field Poll shows.

But Feinstein can’t rest easy as she prepares for another re-election bid next year. For the first time since her initial 1992 election, less than half of the Californians surveyed consider themselves leaning toward Feinstein.

“It’s somewhat surprising, because she’s considered by many to be among the most popular politicians in California,” Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said Wednesday.

Forty-six percent of Californians surveyed between Feb. 28 and March 14 said they are “inclined” to vote for Feinstein next year. Forty-two percent are “not inclined,” and 12 percent call themselves undecided.

My friend Eric Ostermeier at Smart Politics takes a hard look at the data, and says Feinstein should be worried:

For starters, the senior Senator from California’s job approval rating has been languishing in the 40s for well over a year and has been on the decline for half a decade.

SurveyUSA’s most recent poll from February of this year found Senator Feinstein with only a 43 percent approval rating – down by more than a quarter from the 59 percent rating she received in November 2006 when she was elected to her fourth term.

That means Feinstein has suffered through a 29-point net drop in job approval from her reelection in November 2006 (+25 points; 59 percent approve, 34 percent disapprove) to February 2011 (-4 points; 43 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove).

And the February poll is not an aberration.

On job approval, Feinstein is actually under water at 43/47.5 in Survey USA polling this year (averaging two iterations). That’s about the same as last year’s 43.5/47.8 over 12 polls, when Barbara Boxer withstood a tough election against Carly Fiorina. Eric does even more number-crunching and discovers that only 23 of the 140 Senators to have won four or more terms in office failed to win 60% of the vote in at least one of those first four elections, and Feinstein has only gotten as high as 59.4% — in her last election, in the Democratic wave of 2006.

National Journal’s Hotline throws a dash of cold water on the Feinstein-is-vulnerable analysis:

46 percent of California voters surveyed said they would be inclined to vote for Feinstein in 2012, while 42 percent said they would not be inclined to do so. During the year before her previous reelection campaigns, Feinstein’s reelect percentage has consistently been over 50 percent in the Field Poll: 53 percent of registered voters were inclined to reelect her in a poll released in March of 2005, while that figure was 59 percent in March of 1999. In a June 1993 poll, the figure was 58 percent.

Still, there are encouraging signs for Feinstein.

48 percent of California voters approve of the job Feinstein is doing, while just 33 percent disapprove, according to the survey. That figure is higher than Sen. Barbara Boxer‘s (D-Calif.) October 2009 44 percent approval rating.

It’s encouraging news for Feinstein; Boxer, despite attracting a well-known and well-financed GOP opponent in Carly Fiorina, still won by ten percent. The 2012 presidential election should also boost Feinstein’s chances in the heavily Democratic state of California.

The sample for the Harris poll was also rather small for a state the size of California, only 444 registered voters. Harris and Field are considered the leading pollsters in the state, but given the wide geographical distances and disparities in the Golden State’s electorate, that seems too small to be a reliable predictor for an election eighteen months away.

Also, one would have to presume that California would vote for a Republican for statewide office to believe that Feinstein is really vulnerable. The GOP didn’t win one such office in 2010 despite the Republican sweep across the rest of the nation and the disastrous economy in their own state. They re-elected Boxer, for Pete’s sake, and stuck a 72-year-old retread in the Governor’s office 28 years after serving his first two terms in that office — by fourteen points. In 2012, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, Feinstein will be one of the few — perhaps the only — Senator who will benefit from his presence.

The GOP will robustly contend for Feinstein’s seat, but don’t expect any miracles. About the best that could happen would be to force Democrats to spend a lot of money defending her, and keep them from spending it elsewhere.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 2012; cagop; diannefeinstein; difi; elections; feinstein; fiorina; harrispoll; senate
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1 posted on 03/24/2011 11:59:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Best news all day.


2 posted on 03/24/2011 12:02:54 PM PDT by bgill (Kenyan Parliament - how could a man born in Kenya who is not even a native American become the POTUS)
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To: SeekAndFind

The SEIU will pull a Harry Reid for her. The unemployment in the state could be 50% and she could have a 10% approval rating and she’d still beat her opponent. Dem’s cheat.


3 posted on 03/24/2011 12:03:19 PM PDT by library user (Just because you're homeless doesn't mean you're lazy.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ll believe it when the California ignoramuses vote her out.


4 posted on 03/24/2011 12:04:56 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Sarah and the Conservatives will rock your world.)
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To: SeekAndFind

California is a LOST CAUSE! PERIOD!

They should let it sail off the coast.

I feel sorry for my philosophical brothers and sisters over there, but the majority of voters there have chosen the bed they, and everyone else, has to lie in.


5 posted on 03/24/2011 12:05:30 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA (Show me what Obama brought that was new and there you will find things only radical and destructive.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The shape that Ca.is in I am surprised that any elected official would be reelected.
6 posted on 03/24/2011 12:05:37 PM PDT by riverrunner
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To: SeekAndFind

You just can’t expect Californians to support someone as conservative as Feinstein. :)


7 posted on 03/24/2011 12:05:50 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ( "The right to offend is far more important than any right not to be offended." - Rowan Atkinson)
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To: SeekAndFind

Let’s ask Senator Whitman what she thinks of this poll.


8 posted on 03/24/2011 12:06:02 PM PDT by TonyInOhio ( Live free or die: Death is not the worst of evils.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The GOP should not waste one dime on any senatorial campaigns in California. If they can’t beat Boxer they can’t beat anybody.


9 posted on 03/24/2011 12:06:29 PM PDT by forgotten man (forgotten man)
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To: SeekAndFind
Boxer was way down too but she easily won reelection. If Boxer can won Fienstein should trounce anyone against her. Anyone with a D after their name in CA will win that seat!
10 posted on 03/24/2011 12:06:42 PM PDT by martinidon
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To: Mr. Jeeves

SoCal needs to field a conservative candidate. We need some representation in the senate from the southern half of the state.


11 posted on 03/24/2011 12:07:34 PM PDT by Always Independent
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To: SeekAndFind

If Kalifornians-at-large weren’t smart enough to vote out BoxOfRockser, the official Stupidest Quasi-LifeForm EVER To Belong To The Senate...

then they won’t be smart enough to vote out Feinstein either.


12 posted on 03/24/2011 12:08:17 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Trust in God, but row away from the rocks!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Didn’t we see polls like that for Boxer?


13 posted on 03/24/2011 12:08:41 PM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I don’t buy that Feinstein’s in serious trouble for the same reason HotAir’s blogger doesn’t: the less-popular Boxer had WORSE numbers against Fiorina and still won, in a 2010 GOP-sweep year, by 10 percentage points.

That being said, if I were Feinstein’s loyal advisor, I would advise her to groom and endorse a successor. She is still sharp but at the age where things can go south quickly.


14 posted on 03/24/2011 12:08:45 PM PDT by pogo101
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To: SeekAndFind

Boxer beat Fiorina by 9%. Maybe this means that Feinstein’s victory margin won’t exceed Boxer’s.


15 posted on 03/24/2011 12:09:20 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always)
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To: SeekAndFind

This is a head fake.

Harris and the rats are hoping to get the Republicans to waste money campaigning for statewide office in California. The GOP there - - what’s left of it - - would be fools to fall for this obvious ploy.

California is gone. The parasites outnumber the hosts. The Democrats have won.


16 posted on 03/24/2011 12:09:48 PM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: SeekAndFind

Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein remains more popular among California voters than her colleague Barbara Boxer, a new Field Poll shows.

And Boxer won.

Never count a good Frankenfeinstein down. With the support of the eco-nazis, polysexuals, illegal, etc, I’m sure little miss “pocketbook pistol” will be re-elected.


17 posted on 03/24/2011 12:10:15 PM PDT by ZULU (No nation which ever attempted to tolerate Islam, escaped total Islamization.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Yes!!!


18 posted on 03/24/2011 12:11:18 PM PDT by Bitsy ( i)
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To: TonyInOhio

That would be Governor Whitman and Senator Fiorina. And I agree, if Boxer couldn’t be beat, Feinstein will have no problem being re-elected.


19 posted on 03/24/2011 12:11:32 PM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius
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To: pogo101
She is still sharp but at the age where things can go south quickly.

Feinstein, Boxer & Pelosi are all around 70 - that gives me cause for some hope.

Until I consider the upcoming generation of west coast leftists politicians, who make the current crop look reasonable.

20 posted on 03/24/2011 12:14:45 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: SeekAndFind

That’s BS. The nitwits that elected the nitwits in the place are still there. If anything the nitwits now make up a larger percentage of the population as more and more sane people leave for greener pastures.


21 posted on 03/24/2011 12:15:48 PM PDT by WinMod70
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To: SeekAndFind

Forget it. If that idiot Boxer couldn’t be beat, she can’t either.


22 posted on 03/24/2011 12:16:30 PM PDT by 1L
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To: SeekAndFind

Not a problem. As with Harry Reid, on election day votes will magically appear from everywhere...a few might even be legitimate.


23 posted on 03/24/2011 12:16:52 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Navy Patriot
AMEN!

Leftest will continue to be safe in ‘Kaliforna’ for the foreseeable future. Feinstein is just trying to raise up her campaign donations so she can have a bigger nest egg when she does retire.

24 posted on 03/24/2011 12:17:24 PM PDT by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
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To: SeekAndFind

It doesn’t matter how low her ratings are she’ll still be reelected. Somehow there just never seems to be enough of inland voters to counter LA and SF voters.


25 posted on 03/24/2011 12:17:33 PM PDT by abigailsmybaby ("To understan' the livin', you gotta commune wit' da dead." Minerva)
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To: SeekAndFind

wouldn’t put stock in her losing. Example A is Barbra Boxer winning over Carly Fiorina. If the GOP pick an idiot nominee it will just be a repeat of last November.


26 posted on 03/24/2011 12:18:03 PM PDT by Mozilla
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To: SeekAndFind

I wouldn’t put stock in her losing. Example A is Barbra Boxer winning over Carly Fiorina. If the GOP pick an idiot nominee it will just be a repeat of last November.


27 posted on 03/24/2011 12:18:13 PM PDT by Mozilla
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To: ZULU
With 600,000 iffy registrations, the Democrats in general, and Feinstein in particular, have nothing much to fear from the wimped out, emasculated, cookie-pusher CA GOP.

The GOP in CA can't even score among live voters, much less with the multitude of imaginary, illegal, and/or dead Mexicans standing by to do their duty for the Democrats and Aztlán. (Their technical name is "The Sanchez Sisters' Voters SSVs)

Hey, Californicators, how come no one ever asks where and how Mr. Feinstein makes the big bucks? Not to mention the little dumb one's hubby and son?

28 posted on 03/24/2011 12:18:36 PM PDT by Kenny Bunk (America might survive Obama. But it cannot survive with the kind of people who would vote for him.)
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To: SeekAndFind

So was Boxer. This is putresence. She has that seat for life. California is lost. Time to admit it and stop wasting time and dollars on it until they turn themselves around and acknowledge they are on the wrong track.


29 posted on 03/24/2011 12:19:01 PM PDT by Buckeye Battle Cry ("I've got tiger blood and Adonis DNA!")
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To: SeekAndFind

The only way Boxer loses is if the Congress does not bail out California and it files Bankruptcy (don’t think the GOP will do it). Otherwise, I can’t see Boxer losing in the People’s Republik of Californika. The only positive is that labor will have to put money into the campaign hopefully diverting funds from closer races.


30 posted on 03/24/2011 12:20:25 PM PDT by 11th Commandment (http://www.thirty-thousand.org/)
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To: SeekAndFind

California is a socialist hellhole. Freedom-loving Americans should desert it and move to better states.


31 posted on 03/24/2011 12:22:44 PM PDT by Crichton
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To: SeekAndFind

Don’t get your hopes up. Boxer was supposed to be dead meat in 2010 and she pulled out a healthy margin of victory against Fiorina. Feinstein will probably do the same - this is still California after all.


32 posted on 03/24/2011 12:24:22 PM PDT by K-Stater
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To: SeekAndFind

Wishful thinking.


33 posted on 03/24/2011 12:24:22 PM PDT by mad_as_he$$
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To: SeekAndFind

Dont worry the Republicans in Cali will put up some unelectable schlub, that alienates the republican base, like Carli and Diane will get another 6 years.

If I have learned one thing about about California in my lifetime, the reason the republican party is largely irrellevant there, is from self inflicted woundings.


34 posted on 03/24/2011 12:24:22 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: martinidon

Between SEIU and CALPERs they will put her socialist ass back in office. We are doomed in California.


35 posted on 03/24/2011 12:24:29 PM PDT by 23 Everest (A gun in hand is better than a cop on the phone.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I thought she was nearly 80, not just 72. I would imagine that CA can’t live without her yet.


36 posted on 03/24/2011 12:25:07 PM PDT by Theodore R. (John Boehner just surrendered the only weapon with which he had to fight. What does OH see in him?)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think I read that not a single California state or national office incumbent lost in 2010. If true, the only hope for California is that it goes belly up under a conservative administration and is forced to finally have a reckoning.


37 posted on 03/24/2011 12:25:54 PM PDT by RightOnTheBorder
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To: SeekAndFind

Say what you will about DiFi, she is way better than either Pelosi or Boxer. Every once in a while she is on the right side of the issues.


38 posted on 03/24/2011 12:26:17 PM PDT by GSWarrior (To activate this tagline, please contact the board administrator.)
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To: SeekAndFind
If Boxer won ... forget it.
That was very disappointing. Carly was actually fairly reasonable. She didn't back down from her pro-Life stance - like all of Boxer's previous opponents; she highlighted the fact that Government taxes/regulations had caused the Corporations to shift jobs overseas - and even in her televised debate when she had to face off against Boxer and three (or two?) liberal reporters AND a liberal/antagonistic "moderator" she came off fairly well.

And yet she lost to Box of Rocks for Brains Boxer...
Feinstein isn't losing unless there is some radical reacquainting with sanity in this State....

39 posted on 03/24/2011 12:27:29 PM PDT by El Cid (Believe on the Lord Jesus Christ, and thou shalt be saved, and thy house...)
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To: Navy Patriot; SeekAndFind
LOL!

Only three posts before the California Bashers show up.

40 posted on 03/24/2011 12:29:33 PM PDT by Churchillspirit (9/11/01...NEVER FORGET.)
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To: HamiltonJay
"Dont worry the Republicans in Cali will put up some unelectable schlub, that alienates the republican base, like Carli and Diane will get another 6 years."

It's not just the Repubs in California. DiFi will be safe as long as Cornyn heads up the NRSC. Larry Elder went to him in the fall of '09 to put in his bid to run against Boxer and Cornyn kicked him to the curb to back Fiorina. I'm pretty sure he learned nothing from the experience. Those Rino horns have a tendency to interfere with forward vision.

41 posted on 03/24/2011 12:30:55 PM PDT by Joe 6-pack (Que me amat, amet et canem meum)
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To: forgotten man
The GOP should not waste one dime on any senatorial campaigns in California. If they can’t beat Boxer they can’t beat anybody.

Agreed. It's pointless to waste resources on blue states. Besides, the RINO the pubbies would run against her would probably make DiFi look conservative.

42 posted on 03/24/2011 12:31:05 PM PDT by Sans-Culotte ( Pray for Obama- Psalm 109:8)
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To: SeekAndFind

Articles purpose is to activate her base.

Only Osama Bin Laden could displace her.


43 posted on 03/24/2011 12:32:18 PM PDT by NoLibZone (Impeach Obama & try him for treason / Homosexuals reject diversity / Unions finally caught for theft)
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To: RightOnTheBorder

“I think I read that not a single California state or national office incumbent lost in 2010. If true, the only hope for California is that it goes belly up under a conservative administration and is forced to finally have a reckoning.”

You are correct. Voting in California is like voting in North Korea.


44 posted on 03/24/2011 12:32:23 PM PDT by forgotten man (forgotten man)
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To: Zhang Fei

If nothing else, at least this will force the ‘rats to devote resources to holding the seat. It’s a war remember, not just a series of battles.


45 posted on 03/24/2011 12:32:36 PM PDT by fhayek
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To: Nervous Tick
the official Stupidest Quasi-LifeForm EVER To Belong To The Senate...

Even though I agree that Boxer's both stupid and evil, I think she has plenty of competition for the title "Stupidest" Senator.

Think about the RINO Ladies from Maine, Snowe and Collins; Patty Murray, Lisa Murkowsky, Barbara Mikulsky, Al Franken, Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer and Patrick Leahy. That's just the pick of the litter!

46 posted on 03/24/2011 12:32:55 PM PDT by Bernard Marx
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To: HamiltonJay

“Dont worry the Republicans in Cali will put up some unelectable schlub, that alienates the republican base, like Carli and Diane will get another 6 years.”

Doesn’t matter what schlub the Republicans put on the ballot the guy or gal with a D after their name is always going to win here. The brain dead California voters are stuck on stupid and because more than half of them get some sort of payment or job from the state they will always vote for their pocket book, Charles Manson would be elected here if he had a D after is name.


47 posted on 03/24/2011 12:33:00 PM PDT by trapped_in_LA
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To: bgill

Hope beats eternal. The reality is that CA is a deep, blue state and getting bluer every day. Feinstein will be reelected easily.


48 posted on 03/24/2011 12:33:00 PM PDT by kabar
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To: SeekAndFind
If she decides to run again she will win hands down. The illegal aliens and the dead will vote in great numbers. Grasp the concept: CALIFORNIA IS GONE, DEAD, NADA, ZIP, NULL,OVER AS IT IS TOTALLY IN THE HANDS OF THE COALITION.

The only way it could be brought back would be by way of a few good men and they do not exist.

49 posted on 03/24/2011 12:34:01 PM PDT by AEMILIUS PAULUS (It is a shame that when these people give a riot)
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To: SeekAndFind

She’s not sufficiently moon-barking crazy for Californa.

They will replace her with someone like Barbara Boxer or Nancy Piglosi.


50 posted on 03/24/2011 12:35:52 PM PDT by Iron Munro ("Our country's founders cherished liberty, not democracy." -- Ron Paul)
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