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Democratic Insiders See Indiana as Obama’s Biggest Hurdle in 2012
National Journal ^ | 29 Mar 2011 | James A. Barnes

Posted on 03/29/2011 10:36:22 AM PDT by mandaladon

From the states that he won in 2008, Democratic operatives believe that President Obama will have the most difficulty carrying Indiana again when he runs for reelection, according to a special National Journal Political Insiders Poll released on Tuesday.

Choosing from a list of 10 swing states that he won in 2008, Democratic Political Insiders were asked to rank the top five states one-thru-five that would be the hardest for Obama to carry in 2012. Indiana was the clear consensus pick of the Democratic Insiders for where the president’s reelection campaign is likely to encounter the most difficulty—nearly two thirds of the Democratic Political Insiders ranked it first on their list.

Following the Hoosier State, the next four states that the Democratic Insiders predicted would be the hardest for Obama to carry were: North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.

“There’s no way he keeps Indiana; the economy and weakness of Indiana Democrats makes this exceedingly difficult,” said one Democratic Insider. Echoed another: “It’s the state most reliant on manufacturing and that helped in ’08, but now hurts Obama.” And a third Democratic Insider observed that Indiana “went red in last election; was fluke he won there in 2008.”

In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth five points, a second-place vote was worth four points, and so on. The Insiders Index reflects the percentage of points that each state received out of the maximum possible. For example, Indiana scored an Index rating of 87, meaning it received 87 percent of the possible 505 points; the number it would have received if all 101 Democratic Political Insiders participating in the poll this week had ranked Indiana first as the state that would be the hardest for Obama to carry in 2012.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Indiana
KEYWORDS: bho2012; elections; in2012; obama; redstates
2012 is the year we can sen Barry back to Kenya if we choose the right candidate to run against him.
1 posted on 03/29/2011 10:36:24 AM PDT by mandaladon
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To: mandaladon

Unless the economy suddenly rebounds, I don’t see him carrying NC, VA, FL, or OH, either.


2 posted on 03/29/2011 10:41:15 AM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: mandaladon
Indiana isn't a hurdle, it is an Obama victory lap. If he can win there he almost certainly has more than enough electoral votes already.

Ohio and Florida are the hurdles.

3 posted on 03/29/2011 10:42:34 AM PDT by KarlInOhio (Washington is finally rid of the Kennedies. Free at last, thank God almighty we are free at last.)
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To: mandaladon

Obama has no chance of winning Indiana.


4 posted on 03/29/2011 10:44:35 AM PDT by RINOs suck
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To: mandaladon

I see PA as a bigger hurdle this go round. It is a Hitlery state that went very red thin ‘10. There is not a lot of love here and having the Rendell machine in shambles on the ground leaves a lot of cheating out of the question. Obummer has more trouble than in ‘08 because of these flips of state Gov’t. VA and OH look bad as well for him.


5 posted on 03/29/2011 10:47:50 AM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: KarlInOhio

Obuggery is dead meat in Indiana.


6 posted on 03/29/2011 10:48:18 AM PDT by DarthVader (That which supports Barack Hussein Obama must be sterilized and there are NO exceptions!)
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To: mandaladon

We need Daniels to lock it up right? /sarc..


7 posted on 03/29/2011 10:48:46 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (Memo to Mitt Romney, just go away.........)
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To: mandaladon

Obama’s biggest hurdle is himself. FAIL.


8 posted on 03/29/2011 10:49:15 AM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: RINOs suck

Zero has no chance of winning Indiana? There are a lot of ghosts in Lake County. And Lake County will delay reporting vote totals until they know how many ghosts (with photo ID) they need. Just like the last Dem presidential primary.


9 posted on 03/29/2011 10:50:30 AM PDT by omega4412
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To: mandaladon

So what’s his plan for Ohio?

Oh, yeah...tell ‘em that he’s gonna end NAFTA! /sarc


10 posted on 03/29/2011 10:52:26 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: woweeitsme

He better NOT carry NC again...how embaraskin THAT was....


11 posted on 03/29/2011 10:58:50 AM PDT by Adder (Part 1 Accomplished)
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To: omega4412
In a normal Presidential year the Democratic candidate loses by double digits in Indiana.

Obama, in the best case scenario for Democrats, barely won Indiana.

12 posted on 03/29/2011 11:00:22 AM PDT by RINOs suck
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To: mandaladon

I am a Hoosier, and trust me when I say Howdy Doody has no chance here. I deal with 150 - 300 people a day and the dislike I’m hearing for this man on a daily basis is enormous. He’s toast.


13 posted on 03/29/2011 11:00:44 AM PDT by mardi59
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To: Sybeck1
We need Daniels to lock it up right? /sarc..

Actually, I was thinking that Pence running for Governor would probably be good for GOP turnout across the board.

But I agree with what was posted above -- Indiana only goes to Obama in 2012 if he's already winning in a landslide.

14 posted on 03/29/2011 11:04:16 AM PDT by kevkrom ("Winning The Future" = WTF = What The F*** / "Kinetic Military Action" = KMA = Kiss My A**)
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To: woweeitsme

He can forget about winning Wisconsin, too.


15 posted on 03/29/2011 11:21:00 AM PDT by proudpapa
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To: mandaladon

Obama won in 2008 with 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 173. With the new apportionment based on the 2010 census, the margin would drop to 359-179.

If the Dems’ “order of difficulty for Obama to hold” estimates are correct, if the next GOP candidate won all of McCain’s electoral votes, he (or she) would need to pick up the six most vulnerable states to create a 269-269 tie: Indiana (11 electoral votes), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Florida (29), Ohio (18), and New Hampshire (4). The first four on the list should be slam dunks, but it gets tough after that. Colorado, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania should be on the GOP’s radar screen.


16 posted on 03/29/2011 11:44:30 AM PDT by southernnorthcarolina ("Better be wise by the misfortunes of others than by your own." -- Aesop)
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To: mandaladon

Obama won in 2008 with 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 173. With the new apportionment based on the 2010 census, the margin would drop to 359-179.

If the Dems’ “order of difficulty for Obama to hold” estimates are correct, if the next GOP candidate won all of McCain’s electoral votes, he (or she) would need to pick up the six most vulnerable states to create a 269-269 tie: Indiana (11 electoral votes), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Florida (29), Ohio (18), and New Hampshire (4). The first four on the list should be slam dunks, but it gets tough after that. Colorado, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania should be on the GOP’s radar screen.


17 posted on 03/29/2011 11:44:53 AM PDT by southernnorthcarolina ("Better be wise by the misfortunes of others than by your own." -- Aesop)
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To: mandaladon
Indiana in 2008 was an aberration. No way it goes for Obama in 2012.
18 posted on 03/29/2011 11:47:01 AM PDT by K-Stater
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To: K-Stater

If the inexplicable ticket splitting in Hamilton county hadn’t happened. He would have lost Indiana in 2008.


19 posted on 03/29/2011 12:02:32 PM PDT by wordsofearnest (Evan Bayh gave Indiana a twofer.)
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To: mandaladon
I wonder if the "Obama insiders" have noticed that the GOP now holds the Ohio Senate, Ohio House, and every major statewide office, including Governor, and that most of those seats and offices were won since Little Barry took office?

That's what you call whistling past the graveyard. :)

20 posted on 03/29/2011 12:15:20 PM PDT by TonyInOhio ( Live free or die: Death is not the worst of evils.)
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To: mandaladon

The electoral votes have changed since 2008 too. The GOP states probably have added 4-6 votes just from the new census.

I don’t think any one state flipping will make the difference. Hopefully, the GOP candidate will be so strong, it will be 1980 all over again.


21 posted on 03/29/2011 1:28:02 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Washington, we Texans want a divorce!)
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To: OrangeHoof
No matter who it is it will be close.

The black vote will turn out for Obama %100 again and there will be fraud.
22 posted on 03/29/2011 1:29:41 PM PDT by Minus_The_Bear
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To: Minus_The_Bear
The black vote will turn out for Obama %100 again...

More like 210%

23 posted on 03/29/2011 5:06:07 PM PDT by omega4412
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