Posted on 03/29/2011 10:36:22 AM PDT by mandaladon
From the states that he won in 2008, Democratic operatives believe that President Obama will have the most difficulty carrying Indiana again when he runs for reelection, according to a special National Journal Political Insiders Poll released on Tuesday.
Choosing from a list of 10 swing states that he won in 2008, Democratic Political Insiders were asked to rank the top five states one-thru-five that would be the hardest for Obama to carry in 2012. Indiana was the clear consensus pick of the Democratic Insiders for where the president’s reelection campaign is likely to encounter the most difficulty—nearly two thirds of the Democratic Political Insiders ranked it first on their list.
Following the Hoosier State, the next four states that the Democratic Insiders predicted would be the hardest for Obama to carry were: North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.
“There’s no way he keeps Indiana; the economy and weakness of Indiana Democrats makes this exceedingly difficult,” said one Democratic Insider. Echoed another: “It’s the state most reliant on manufacturing and that helped in ’08, but now hurts Obama.” And a third Democratic Insider observed that Indiana “went red in last election; was fluke he won there in 2008.”
In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth five points, a second-place vote was worth four points, and so on. The Insiders Index reflects the percentage of points that each state received out of the maximum possible. For example, Indiana scored an Index rating of 87, meaning it received 87 percent of the possible 505 points; the number it would have received if all 101 Democratic Political Insiders participating in the poll this week had ranked Indiana first as the state that would be the hardest for Obama to carry in 2012.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
Unless the economy suddenly rebounds, I don’t see him carrying NC, VA, FL, or OH, either.
Ohio and Florida are the hurdles.
Obama has no chance of winning Indiana.
I see PA as a bigger hurdle this go round. It is a Hitlery state that went very red thin ‘10. There is not a lot of love here and having the Rendell machine in shambles on the ground leaves a lot of cheating out of the question. Obummer has more trouble than in ‘08 because of these flips of state Gov’t. VA and OH look bad as well for him.
Obuggery is dead meat in Indiana.
We need Daniels to lock it up right? /sarc..
Obama’s biggest hurdle is himself. FAIL.
Zero has no chance of winning Indiana? There are a lot of ghosts in Lake County. And Lake County will delay reporting vote totals until they know how many ghosts (with photo ID) they need. Just like the last Dem presidential primary.
So what’s his plan for Ohio?
Oh, yeah...tell ‘em that he’s gonna end NAFTA! /sarc
He better NOT carry NC again...how embaraskin THAT was....
Obama, in the best case scenario for Democrats, barely won Indiana.
I am a Hoosier, and trust me when I say Howdy Doody has no chance here. I deal with 150 - 300 people a day and the dislike I’m hearing for this man on a daily basis is enormous. He’s toast.
Actually, I was thinking that Pence running for Governor would probably be good for GOP turnout across the board.
But I agree with what was posted above -- Indiana only goes to Obama in 2012 if he's already winning in a landslide.
He can forget about winning Wisconsin, too.
Obama won in 2008 with 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 173. With the new apportionment based on the 2010 census, the margin would drop to 359-179.
If the Dems’ “order of difficulty for Obama to hold” estimates are correct, if the next GOP candidate won all of McCain’s electoral votes, he (or she) would need to pick up the six most vulnerable states to create a 269-269 tie: Indiana (11 electoral votes), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Florida (29), Ohio (18), and New Hampshire (4). The first four on the list should be slam dunks, but it gets tough after that. Colorado, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania should be on the GOP’s radar screen.
Obama won in 2008 with 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 173. With the new apportionment based on the 2010 census, the margin would drop to 359-179.
If the Dems’ “order of difficulty for Obama to hold” estimates are correct, if the next GOP candidate won all of McCain’s electoral votes, he (or she) would need to pick up the six most vulnerable states to create a 269-269 tie: Indiana (11 electoral votes), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Florida (29), Ohio (18), and New Hampshire (4). The first four on the list should be slam dunks, but it gets tough after that. Colorado, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania should be on the GOP’s radar screen.
If the inexplicable ticket splitting in Hamilton county hadn’t happened. He would have lost Indiana in 2008.
That's what you call whistling past the graveyard. :)
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