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GOP Shouldn't Panic If Whites Become a Minority
Human Events ^ | 04/04/2011 | Michael Barone

Posted on 04/04/2011 11:22:10 AM PDT by Sarabaracuda

Are whites on the verge of becoming a minority of the American population? That's what some analysts of the 2010 Census results claim. Many go on, sometimes with relish, to say that this spells electoral doom for the Republican Party.

I think the picture is more complicated than that. And that the demise of the Republican Party is no more foreordained than it was a century ago when Italian, Jewish and Polish immigrants were pouring into the United States in proportions much greater than the Hispanic and Asian immigration of the past two decades.

The numbers do appear stark. The Census tells us that 16 percent of U.S. residents are Hispanic, up from 13 percent in 2000 and 9 percent in 1990, and that 5 percent are Asian, up from 4 percent in 2000. The percentage of blacks held steady at 13. Among children, the voters of tomorrow, those percentages are higher.

But it's a mistake to see blacks, Hispanics and Asians as a single "people of color" voting bloc. The 2010 exit poll shows that the Republican percentages in the vote for the U.S. House were 60 percent among whites, 9 percent among blacks, 38 percent among Hispanics and 40 percent among Asians.

Simple arithmetic tells you that Hispanics and Asians vote more like whites than like blacks. The picture is similar in the 2008 exit poll.

Moreover, while blacks vote similarly in just about every state, there is wide variation among Hispanics. In 2010 governor elections, Hispanics voted 31 percent Republican in California, 38 percent Republican in Texas and 50 percent Republican in Florida (where Cubans are no longer a majority of Hispanics).

As RealClearPolitics senior political analyst Sean Trende has written, Hispanics tend to vote 10 percent to 15 percent less Republican than whites of similar income and education levels. An increasingly Hispanic electorate puts Republicans at a disadvantage, but not an overwhelming one.

The same is true of Asians. In 2010, Democratic Sen. Harry Reid got 79 percent from Asians in Nevada, where many are Filipinos. But the Asians in Middlesex County, N.J., most of whom are from India, seem to have voted for Republican Gov. Chris Christie in 2009.

The 2010 Census tells something else that may prove important: There's been a slowdown of immigration since the recession began in 2007 and even some reverse migration. If you look at the Census results for Hispanic immigrant entry points -- East Los Angeles and Santa Ana, Calif., the east side of Houston, the Pilsen neighborhood in Chicago -- you find that the Hispanic population has dropped sharply since 2000.

One reason is the business cycle. The 2000 Census was taken on April 1, 2000, less than a month after the peak of the tech boom. Unemployment was low, immigration was high, and entry-point houses and apartments were crammed with large families.

The 2010 Census was taken after two years of recession, when immigration had slackened off. We simply don't know whether this was just a temporary response to the business cycle or the beginning of a permanent decline in migration.

Past mass migrations, which most experts expected to continue indefinitely, in fact ended abruptly. Net Puerto Rican migration to New York City stopped in 1961, and the huge movement of Southern blacks to Northern cities ended in 1965. Those who extrapolate current trends far into the future end up being wrong sooner or later.

Finally there is an assumption -- which is particularly strong among those who expect a majority "people of color" electorate to put Democrats in power permanently -- that racial consciousness never changes. But sometimes it does.

American blacks do have common roots in slavery and segregation. But African immigrants don't share that heritage, and Hispanics come from many different countries and cultures (there are big regional differences just within Mexico). The Asian category includes anyone from Japan to Lebanon and in between.

Under the definitions in use in the America of a century ago, when Southern and Eastern European immigrants were not regarded as white, the United States became a majority non-white nation sometime in the 1950s. By today's definitions, we'll become majority non-white a few decades hence.

But that may not make for the vast cultural and political change some predict. Not if we assimilate newcomers, and if our two political parties adapt, as we and they have done in the past.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gop; humanevents; michaelbarone; politics

1 posted on 04/04/2011 11:22:16 AM PDT by Sarabaracuda
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To: Sarabaracuda

Just the whites should panic.


2 posted on 04/04/2011 11:22:51 AM PDT by Ktulu
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To: Sarabaracuda

Hummmm, wonder what the tax rates will be when the majority of the population is on welfare?


3 posted on 04/04/2011 11:24:16 AM PDT by circlecity
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To: Sarabaracuda
GOP Shouldn't Panic If Whites Become a Minority.

No need to panic. Just ram through amnesty before the Rats. That will keep them in votes.

4 posted on 04/04/2011 11:24:57 AM PDT by Lazlo in PA (Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
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To: Sarabaracuda

Yes, but 100 years ago, we didn’t have a redistributionist, race-mongering Government to cement entitlements and racial views into place.


5 posted on 04/04/2011 11:25:42 AM PDT by PGR88 (I'm so open-minded my brains fell out)
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To: Sarabaracuda

“is no more foreordained than it was a century ago when Italian, Jewish and Polish immigrants were pouring into the United States...”

And the vast majority of the descendents of those Italian, Jewish, and Polish immigrants are STILL reliably voting Democrat, forming really the base of that party...


6 posted on 04/04/2011 11:31:27 AM PDT by AnalogReigns
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To: Sarabaracuda

Don’t panic just reproduce. Also we’d have a bigger chunk of the black/minority vote if the GOP were clearly conservative on social issues and sold it to those groups. Look at California. If the GOP in California were getting what Prop 8 got they’d soon run the state. Instead many GOP friendly voters just don’t show up or they are minorities who generally vote Democrat “just because”. It is the white liberals who are the problem in both parties. The rest of us should reproduce and keep our kids out of the liberal indoctrination camps otherwise known as public schools.


7 posted on 04/04/2011 11:32:28 AM PDT by Maelstorm (Better to keep your enemy in your sights than in your camp expecting him to guard your back.)
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To: AnalogReigns

*raises hand*

Not this proud American of (partly) Italian decent. Nor most of my family.


8 posted on 04/04/2011 11:34:11 AM PDT by RockinRight (C'mon people - enough with the FR circular firing squad.)
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To: Maelstorm

“Don’t panic just reproduce. “

Inbetween working like a slave to make a living and pay the taxes to suppor the underclass voting base.


9 posted on 04/04/2011 11:34:25 AM PDT by Niuhuru (The Internet is the digital AIDS; adapting and successfully destroying the MSM host.)
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To: Sarabaracuda

Not if we can reverse a few things to the way they were intended and and remove anchor babies, including the one in the White House. (British father means not a Natural Born Citizen. Who cares where he was born?)


10 posted on 04/04/2011 11:34:25 AM PDT by Ingtar (Together we go broke (from a Pookie18 post))
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To: Sarabaracuda

Liberty will always have a constituency. The individual is the smallest minority on earth, and the liberals are not on his side.


11 posted on 04/04/2011 11:36:11 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Mitt Romney: He's from Harvard, and he's here to help.)
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To: RockinRight

It really depends on the Italians, I think. Those who still live in the five boroughs or Chicago’s south side might be expected to vote for Democrats. Those middle and upper-class Italians who live in the ‘burbs mostly won’t.


12 posted on 04/04/2011 11:38:56 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Mitt Romney: He's from Harvard, and he's here to help.)
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To: Sarabaracuda

So, when whites become a minority, does that mean that the Voter Rights Act will automatically sunset?


13 posted on 04/04/2011 11:42:47 AM PDT by ken5050 (Save the Earth..It's the only planet with chocolate!!!)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Well I grew up in Akron, OH.


14 posted on 04/04/2011 11:42:59 AM PDT by RockinRight (C'mon people - enough with the FR circular firing squad.)
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To: Sarabaracuda

Conservatism knows no skin color.


15 posted on 04/04/2011 11:47:06 AM PDT by DTogo (High time to bring back the Sons of Liberty !!)
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To: Sarabaracuda

The republican party will go away because of liberals taking over. In fact, it’s already happened. There is only one party in this country. We need a second party. See my tagline.


16 posted on 04/04/2011 11:51:18 AM PDT by Terry Mross (Only a SECOND party will get my vote.)
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To: Niuhuru

It can be frustrating but eventually you have to decide what your priorities are. Life is about family because our families are one part of us that can invariably go on. I’m not saying to go crazy and disregard good sense but I think many are being played the fools by adhering to liberal modern ‘standards’ of what success is. Are the young people who have the brand new cars, party every weekend, and constantly looking to find a bed mate truly happy? One of the key reasons that single women vote for big govt by larger margins than married women is because they are afraid and are looking for security.

Don’t let the govt trap you. If you live in a state that taxes too much move to one that doesn’t and tell people that is why you are getting out. If you live in an area with not enough jobs again move. Freedom is best when you use it because if you don’t we most certainly will lose it. Family is not as nearly as costly as our modern world would have us believe. Our kids don’t need to go to expensive liberal institutions to learn and be happy and get good paying jobs.
We don’t have to live in urban areas where everything is within walking distance we need if anything to shun those areas. We can vote with our dollars and our residency and with our children. If we don’t then we lose and you can ether be paying for your own children or paying higher taxes to raise another liberal slave.


17 posted on 04/04/2011 11:53:08 AM PDT by Maelstorm (Better to keep your enemy in your sights than in your camp expecting him to guard your back.)
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To: Ktulu

Not to worry. Whites can get minority benefits and the others won’t. Sounds good to me.


18 posted on 04/04/2011 11:54:50 AM PDT by RC2
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To: Sarabaracuda

The Democratic party has made a major blunder. They just don’t realize it yet.

The Democrats have become so beholden to the gay and lesbian votes that they probably will be unable to oppose further demands from the group. Once they force gay marriage through, the next step will be mandatory gay education in the schools. They are already demanding this and getting it in the schools in liberal areas. They will also probably demand a lowering of the age of consent.

At some point, Republicans can just say “are you with God or with the Democratic party?” Democrats wll call such a question hateful, Mcarthyite, whatever, but it will be a very good question nonetheless. Many Hispanic votes and black votes will probably leave the Democratic party once the gay agenda pushes too far.


19 posted on 04/04/2011 12:00:36 PM PDT by Our man in washington
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To: Sarabaracuda

Don’t forget, 2050 is at least two to three generations away. During that time, expect much cross-racial breeding to occur that will effectively dull the sharp extrapolated spike in so-called “Hispanic” and so-called “Asian” numbers. (I’m half-Korean and half-white, my son, who will be born this July, will one-quarter Korean, three-quarters white. What will his sons and grandsons look like? How will they be defined?)

Additionally, what is “Hispanic” and what is “Asian” anyway?

How these two groups are defined is how their numbers are tallied. Do demographers really think that Koreans and Indians have anything in common other than having roots on the same-ish continent? Ask a Korean or an Indian and they’ll tell you. What about a Welsh Argentine and a Quechua native Peruvian who both immigrate to the US as “Hispanics”? Are they the same in any way, even in the language that they speak? Not really.

Point being, beware of these straight-line projections; things change, populations are always in flux, particularly when it comes to procreation and nebulous definitions.

Hmm...perhaps by then we will ALL finally be called Americans!


20 posted on 04/04/2011 12:02:11 PM PDT by mkboyce
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To: Our man in washington

No they won’t. Democrats pay the bills.


21 posted on 04/04/2011 12:03:13 PM PDT by Minus_The_Bear
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To: Minus_The_Bear

The Republicans don’t need them all. If the Republicans get 25 percent of the black vote and 45 percent of the hispanic vote, the Democrats are screwed. This goal is achievable.


22 posted on 04/04/2011 12:14:17 PM PDT by Our man in washington
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To: Sarabaracuda

Right, don’t panic that the entire nation is being swamped by illegal immigration.

And we’re too stupid to just stop it.


23 posted on 04/04/2011 12:14:42 PM PDT by Williams (It's the policies, stupid.)
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To: RC2

Whites will NEVER get “minority” benefits.


24 posted on 04/04/2011 12:19:28 PM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: Our man in washington
Uhh... are you serious?

Republicans can't even achieve 4% of the black vote.

Illegal immigration will destroy this country in as little as 5-10 years when anchor babies begin to vote.
25 posted on 04/04/2011 12:19:59 PM PDT by Minus_The_Bear
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To: MrB

No way “Our time has come”....oops, Obama said that to his people didn’t he.


26 posted on 04/04/2011 12:28:30 PM PDT by RC2
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To: RockinRight

“Not this proud American of (partly) Italian decent. Nor most of my family.”

There are many noteable exceptions of course. Still, ethnic Italians and Poles—and especially Jews—will by a huge measure be found in blue states, voting reliably Democrat.


27 posted on 04/04/2011 12:42:03 PM PDT by AnalogReigns
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To: Minus_The_Bear

With comments like this, is it any wonder why Republicans have such a problem reaching minorities?


28 posted on 04/04/2011 12:42:45 PM PDT by Sarabaracuda (Sarah 2012)
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To: AnalogReigns

And why is that?


29 posted on 04/04/2011 12:46:09 PM PDT by Sarabaracuda (Sarah 2012)
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To: Sarabaracuda
Pointing out the facts the Republican party can't even break single digits among black voters is somehow wrong?

Facts are wrong now?

Is every Palin supporter that dense?
30 posted on 04/04/2011 12:50:43 PM PDT by Minus_The_Bear
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To: Maelstorm

Don’t agree that the way to get more minority vote is to push the social issues. Security and freebees will trump social issues anyday with most minority groups. Affirmative Action, minority set asides and other race based preferences are much more important to them.


31 posted on 04/04/2011 12:54:05 PM PDT by lone star annie
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To: DTogo

Bingo. The message should not change depending on whom you are addressing.


32 posted on 04/04/2011 12:56:07 PM PDT by lone star annie
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To: AnalogReigns

Very true esp w/Jews. My sister in law (wife’s brother’s wife) is Jewish and a registered Dem, but she’s slooooooowly coming around, mostly thanks to my brother-in-law.

She liked Hillary but is not a fan of Obama at all. We’ll bring her into the fold.

Now her parents and siblings, well that’s another matter entirely. I don’t know them that well but they seem firmly entrenched in liberalism from what I can see, as well as most of her friends Jewish and otherwise.

I never understood why Jews are so liberal overall.


33 posted on 04/04/2011 1:03:51 PM PDT by RockinRight (C'mon people - enough with the FR circular firing squad.)
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To: Minus_The_Bear

The GOP could certainly do more to reach out to minorites but there are two problems:

1. They’re doing it wrong - instead of offering “goodies” - why not explain WHY they too are conservative.

2. Part of it is just cultural - this is a much harder nut to crack.

I don’t see how pointing this out is so wrong. It’s not a tenth as racist/culturalist as what liberals say every day under the guise of being “multicultural.”


34 posted on 04/04/2011 1:06:33 PM PDT by RockinRight (C'mon people - enough with the FR circular firing squad.)
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To: Maelstorm

Quite thankfully, but at some point, the system will have to collapse.


35 posted on 04/04/2011 1:22:11 PM PDT by Niuhuru (The Internet is the digital AIDS; adapting and successfully destroying the MSM host.)
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To: AnalogReigns
And the vast majority of the descendents of those Italian, Jewish, and Polish immigrants are STILL reliably voting Democrat, forming really the base of that party...

I'm glad somebody else noticed.

36 posted on 04/06/2011 12:15:06 PM PDT by triumphant values (Never criticize that to your right.)
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