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Fear of nuclear power is out of all proportion to the actual risks. Unlikely to kill anyone.
The Guardian ^ | 04/04/2011

Posted on 04/04/2011 7:56:47 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Pollution from coal-fired power plants is responsible for more than 100,000 deaths per year, whereas the crisis at the Fukushima nuclear plant is unlikely to kill a single person.

People are getting nervous about nuclear power in the wake of the problems at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan, questioning whether nuclear power is a sensible option for energy production in light of the perceived risks.

It has been three weeks since the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. There have been problems at the Fukushima plant with cooling, gas explosions (not nuclear), and radiation leaks – all serious issues, but so far no one has died. The earthquake and tsunami have killed more than 10,000 people.

In fact, the disaster shows how safe nuclear reactors actually are. Reactors designed half a century ago survived an earthquake many times stronger than they were designed to withstand, immediately going into shut-down (bringing driven nuclear reactions to a halt). But the radioactive products in the reactor keep decaying, producing heat, so they must be cooled.

The real problems began when the tsunami took out all the back-up generators that were meant to provide power to circulate the coolant. Loss of site power is the worst-case scenario for a nuclear power plant, so for Fukushima this was the worst crisis imaginable. New reactors have improved safety features, including passive systems that allow cooling to take place without power.

Radiation leaks are undoubtedly serious. But it is worth remembering that we are subjected to background radiation every day as a result of natural processes – some people more than others. Those living in UK areas with a lot of granite rocks, such as Cornwall, will have higher exposure than those who live somewhere like the Thames Valley.

(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Japan; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: earthquake; fukushima; japan; nuclearpower
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1 posted on 04/04/2011 7:56:53 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

About the author:

Dr Melanie Windridge is a freelance science communicator and academic visitor in nuclear fusion research at Imperial College London


2 posted on 04/04/2011 7:57:45 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

“...the crisis at the Fukushima is unlikely to kill a single person.”

Haven’t five already died of radiation exposure?


3 posted on 04/04/2011 7:59:12 PM PDT by proudpapa
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To: SeekAndFind

Meanwhile,
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/04_32.html

Radiation measurements have exceeded levels at which people are advised to stay indoors in a town outside the 30-kilometer radius of the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant
...
A nuclear expert has pointed out that the government should explain the details of the finding to the residents.


4 posted on 04/04/2011 7:59:59 PM PDT by RummyChick
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To: proudpapa

Never fear..GE will save the day

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/04_24.html

Obama said so.....well... not really.


5 posted on 04/04/2011 8:01:37 PM PDT by RummyChick
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To: proudpapa

Yea, whoever wrote this is ignorant or is lying, both bring their credibility to 0 for me.


6 posted on 04/04/2011 8:01:43 PM PDT by IamCenny
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To: RummyChick

MEANWHILE :

Fukushima Radiation: Modeling Shows Limited Spread in Ocean

http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/04/fukushima-radiation-modeling-shows.html?ref=hp


7 posted on 04/04/2011 8:02:23 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: IamCenny

TEPCO said they will likely never be able to go into Reactor 3 again.

If it is so safe, that author should fly down there and go in for them.


8 posted on 04/04/2011 8:03:32 PM PDT by RummyChick
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To: proudpapa

From the Wall Street Journal :

Despite Worries, Experts Suggest Damage to Marine Life Is Contained

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704587004576242950653122000.html


9 posted on 04/04/2011 8:04:17 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: RummyChick

Wind turbine by a power plant in Jaenschwalde, Germany

yitbos

10 posted on 04/04/2011 8:06:44 PM PDT by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds." -- Ayn Rand)
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To: RummyChick

Help Support Japan’s economy and clean that ketchup off the floor

http://www.bonappetit.com/blogsandforums/blogs/badaily/2011/03/spilled-mayo-on-the-floor-ther.html


11 posted on 04/04/2011 8:07:28 PM PDT by RummyChick
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To: proudpapa

RE: Haven’t five already died of radiation exposure?


From what I have read, the 5 are dead from explosions, not radiation.

At Chernobyl, the first people that died from radiation died after 14 days. These people practically stood directly over the exposed reactor.

The people in Fukushoma have not died from radiation. Even if they have already gotten a lethal dose, it takes weeks to kill.

It’s a slow death if it were true.


12 posted on 04/04/2011 8:08:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I posted on another article that I live very close to such a plant. Everybody needs to take a deep breath. I have made no plans to move.


13 posted on 04/04/2011 8:09:11 PM PDT by He Rides A White Horse ((unite))
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To: SeekAndFind
Think they should take a few Geiger counters and walk them around any major American airport that has the 'TSA' state of the art, Security. . .
14 posted on 04/04/2011 8:09:52 PM PDT by cricket (Osama - NOT made in the USA. . . .and Obama, not made i)n the USA either.. .)
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To: He Rides A White Horse

I certainly would rather live next to a nuke plant than a coal plant or field of wind turbines.


15 posted on 04/04/2011 8:19:40 PM PDT by HerrBlucher ("It is terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged." G.K. Chesterton)
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To: HerrBlucher
I certainly would rather live next to a nuke plant than a coal plant or field of wind turbines.

Things happen; I'm not rattled in the least. Learn from it and apply it. That's really what should be done.

16 posted on 04/04/2011 8:34:36 PM PDT by He Rides A White Horse ((unite))
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To: HerrBlucher
I certainly would rather live next to a nuke plant than a coal plant or field of wind turbines.

Things happen; I'm not rattled in the least. Learn from it and apply it. That's really what should be done.

17 posted on 04/04/2011 8:35:09 PM PDT by He Rides A White Horse ((unite))
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To: HerrBlucher
See? I'll learn to be patient and post once. Just kidding, FR seems slow tonight on my end.
18 posted on 04/04/2011 8:37:17 PM PDT by He Rides A White Horse ((unite))
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s so safe, I am sure everyone here would not have a problem living their daily lives inside of the danger zone. /s

Ask the author too do it. I am sure he would decline. If not he s a damned fool.


19 posted on 04/04/2011 8:45:49 PM PDT by CSI007
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To: SeekAndFind

The future of nuclear is cold fusion.

How I Made Money from Cold Fusion
Saturday, January 23, 2010 12:28:49 PM · by Kevmo · 28 replies · 1,013+ views
Exclusive Article for Free Republic | 1/23/10 | Kevmo
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2435697/posts

HOW TO SAVE OUR ECONOMY
Friday, December 31, 2010 1:57:41 AM · by Kevmo · 40 replies The American Reporter ^ | December 29, 2010 | Joe Shea
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2649712/posts

Re-Analysis of the Marinov Light-Speed Anisotropy Experiment
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2270920/posts
Friday, June 12, 2009 11:25:41 PM · by Kevmo · 27 replies · 1,027+ views
http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/physics/pdf/0612/0612201v2.pdf ^ | Reginald T. Cahill

The Suppression of Inconvenient Facts in Physics
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2266921/posts
Sunday, June 07, 2009 7:50:26 PM · by Kevmo · 78 replies · 1,626+ views Suppressed Science.Net ^ | 12/06/08 | http://www.suppressedscience.net/

The End of Snide Remarks Against Cold Fusion
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2265914/posts
Friday, June 05, 2009 5:56:08 PM · by Kevmo · 95 replies · 1,770+ views
Free Republic, Gravitronics.net and Intrade ^ | 6/5/09 | kevmo, et al

‘Cold Fusion’ Rebirth? New Evidence For Existence Of Controversial Energy Source
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2212864/posts
Monday, March 23, 2009 12:42:14 PM · by FlameThrower · 35 replies · 1,586+ views
Science Daily ^ | Mar. 23, 2009 | American Chemical Society


20 posted on 04/04/2011 9:03:02 PM PDT by Kevmo (Turning the Party over to the so-called moderates wouldn't make any sense at all. ~Ronald Reagan)
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To: IamCenny
You know nothing and neither to I so, only time is going to prove this one way or another. Useless to sit here and say this is true or a bunch of bunk. In time hundreds or thousands will either die or not. period. Threads like this are stupid to me. Thousands did not die at Chernobyl.
21 posted on 04/04/2011 9:18:01 PM PDT by fish hawk (R. Emmett Tyrrell: Liberalism is dead. What we see now is "soft Nazis-ism".)
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To: proudpapa

Maybe this means not counting industrial accidents at the site. Still, the fat lady hasn’t finished singing her No drama here. If the containment has been so badly damaged that it suddenly disintegrates, watch out folks.


22 posted on 04/04/2011 9:18:54 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Hawk)
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To: fish hawk

It would be nice to know that the most competent nuclear engineers on earth are watching the site like a hawk. Instead we have Japanese hillbillies trying to pack cracks in concrete in a very radioactive environment with sawdust and paper mache’.


23 posted on 04/04/2011 9:20:43 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Hawk)
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To: SeekAndFind

I agree.....it has been said since 35,000 fatalities occur in car accidents does that mean we stop building cars?

Furthermore those who have been injured by radiation generally happen as the result of contact with really dangerous levels....just as those in the article did. And all who work at Nuclear Plants understand the danger perfectly....and it’s generally slight if at all.

There are so many real dangers out in the world that this is the least of those far more dangerous. Besides cancer from radiation is treatable at the leevels they are suggesting are within the radius.

But to have the right perspective on this whole ordeal...
Note that the Nuclear Radiation fear has completley trumped the thousands and thousands who have died from the Tusami...and the thousands who have no homes have nothing but the clothes on their back In Japan. And those who died had no chance to be treated.


24 posted on 04/04/2011 9:27:24 PM PDT by caww
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To: bruinbirdman

Interesting photo as zero deaths have occured in our country at Nuclear Sites...yet 35 deaths in 2010 from Wind Turbin accidnets....perspective is a good thing.


25 posted on 04/04/2011 9:30:20 PM PDT by caww
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To: proudpapa
Haven’t five already died of radiation exposure?

No, in fact only one person has experienced any burns and that was because he waded into radioactive water without his suit on. He's not dead either.

26 posted on 04/04/2011 9:31:19 PM PDT by calex59
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To: fish hawk

Chernobal blasted dangerous levels of Radiation into the atmosphere Fish Hawk.....not even close to Japans accident. And keep in mind this plant was kept from melting down initially by workers working barehanded...in the dark with no electic. Astounding feat they have managed to do....the plant withstood amazingly well...thru a 9 point earthquake....but the Tusammi prevented what could otherwise have been a complete recovery.

I lived a mile from a Nuclear plant....went there and saw the operation with my own eyes. Their floors were cleaner than any hospital setting of the finest hospitals. Their security impressive beyond measure....nuclear sites are safer than any other resource generating enrgy....by a long shot.


27 posted on 04/04/2011 9:37:13 PM PDT by caww
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To: IamCenny
Yea, whoever wrote this is ignorant or is lying, both bring their credibility to 0 for me.

The five who died, died from the explosions, not radiation. If you wish to be a chicken little, please feel free. The thousands who have died in Japan, and those most likely to die in the immediate future, are those that died from injuries received during the earthquake and the tidal wave.

People seem to be forgetting the real tragedy, simply because they want to scream and whine about how deadly nukes are.

28 posted on 04/04/2011 9:42:18 PM PDT by calex59
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To: calex59

You got that right CAlex....fear mongers will always make the headlines and keep the media engrossed..and those who follow it. BTW I’ve received the maximum dosage of radiation, 5000 rads plus, one can have without causing illness or death. That was at 27 yrs. old. I have now four grandchildren and a full life still.


29 posted on 04/04/2011 9:47:52 PM PDT by caww
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To: SeekAndFind
(Perceptions)

People don't understand nuclear power = fear of the unknown.

Anything natural is good, man made / artificial evil and bad, nuclear power = man made and artificial. Americans are so conditioned to this that the mere stimulus of a color, i.e. “green” already sets off a Pavlovian effect in many.

Things relating to big business are evil. Nuclear power = big business.

Anything relating to defense and especially nuclear weapons is bad. Oak Ridge and many of the early nuclear plants were designed with the intent to make fissile material for nuclear weapons. Nuclear power = nuclear weapons.

What the writer says can be factually backed up: http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/mining/statistics/discoal.htm In the US alone, more coal miners died in 2010 ALONE than what nuclear power has cost in lives in the US since it's inception. Discounting cancer from hydrocarbons produced by burning coal, coal dust and the associated lung diseases, the H2SO4 (acid rain) and CO2 as well as the sludge >100,000 the left over waste by weight and volume........... nuclear is in terms of safety record actually very safe and it's a simple matter of how one counts the casualties. Events like Three Mile Island actually are testaments to their safety. To a large degree even Fukushima, which seems incomprehensible to many since something went wrong, right? Yes something went wrong, yet the fail safe systems, equilibrium seeking and triple containment designed reactors where even in a worst case scenario it just sort of fizzles into the ground is actually proof of concept and design when what was supposed to happen did happen after a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami slam into 40+ year old reactors.

Bottom line, when it comes to nuclear power some will hold it to a zero flaw, zero consequence standard but they will overlook the downsides of coal, which is the only viable alternative.

But as I stated before, what you're really doing here is arguing against a “feeling” and a fad. You can't win this argument with reason because the people you're arguing with aren't thinking. They are essentially sensing and it's a combination of a mass consensus and media hype that defines what they really think. They repeat the same things to one another and look for affirmation in each others feelings.

30 posted on 04/04/2011 9:57:47 PM PDT by Red6
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To: HiTech RedNeck

“Instead we have Japanese hillbillies trying to pack cracks in concrete in a very radioactive environment with sawdust and paper mache’.”

Don’t forget the nuclear geniuses at TEPCO are now trying to use bath salts to find the leaks:

“Japanese engineers at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant have been forced to release radioactive waste water into the sea. At the same time they are resorting to desperate measures to contain the damage, such as using bath salts to try to locate the source of leaks ... engineers are no closer to regaining control of the power plant or stopping radioactive leaks.”

Anyone think these bozos have a clue about what they are doing? I don’t.

Here’s more:

“The government expects that several months may be required before radioactive particles stop being released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, its top spokesman said Sunday.”

Does this sound to anyone here like the Japanese have any clue whatsoever as to what to do about this mess?

Me neither. Radiation from Japan has already started contaminating our food. And now the Japanese say they’re going to continue to send radiation our way and continue to contaminate our food for months? It’s time for the U.S. government to protect us from this mess. It’s time for the U.S. government to get medieval on their asses, namely force the Japanese to quit f**king around and take international help to quickly develop a plan to entomb these suckers and then quickly implement it.

If necessary, force a U.N. resolution for the U.N. (lead by the U.S.) to take this thing over. Bring in the real experts, namely those Russians who are left alive that figured out what to do at Chernobyl. Force Japan to give up control by threatening them with cutoff of all aid and all commerce if necessary.

Facing the prospect of having our entire food supply radioactively contaminated indefinitely is not something the U.S. should just sit back and passively accept. In terms of the future benefit to our children, the billions we’re spending on bombing Libya would be much better spent on entombing Fukusiha.

Naturally, I know none of this will happen. Our “leader” is an ideologue with the credentials of a community organizer who is focused exclusively on implementing his ideology. There is no room in his agenda for adapting to present dangers. There is no capability of understanding what we are about to face. There is no capability to foresee the future and to react to changing it. There is no concern for the well-being of American citizens. There is no understanding of when and how to wield American power to protect us. There is no ability to recognize what is truly dangerous. There is no ability to prioritize what is important and what is not.

All I can say is, “God help us, because Obama’s not going to”.


31 posted on 04/04/2011 10:03:32 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Made from the right stuff!)
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To: catnipman

What are you smoking?


32 posted on 04/04/2011 10:14:33 PM PDT by Red6
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To: caww; calex59; proudpapa; SeekAndFind; HiTech RedNeck; HerrBlucher

“Interesting photo as zero deaths have occured in our country at Nuclear Sites...yet 35 deaths in 2010 from Wind Turbin accidnets....perspective is a good thing.”

And solar is even more dangerous - installers falling from rooftops.

Here’s some data about the death rate from the various energy sources. Nuclear is the safest by far.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/03/deaths-per-twh-for-all-energy-sources.html


33 posted on 04/04/2011 10:33:34 PM PDT by aquila48
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To: Red6

Ok so you have a low opinion of people with opinions other than yours. Check.
And you dismiss any other opinion than your as feeling rather than rational though. Check.
You present straw man arguments. Check.
You eliminate any interest in discourse with you thusly:
“You can’t win this argument with reason because the people you’re arguing with aren’t thinking.”
Ok so I will just check for Red6 posts and skip them. Meanwhile, some of us will choose trade information, experiences and perspectives.


34 posted on 04/04/2011 10:56:29 PM PDT by ransomnote
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To: aquila48

Uh...I see your link includes data re people who die from coal pollution but it does not count the thousands of people in Russia who die from Chernobyl and other Russian nuclear pollution hot spots. Of course, that’s largely because Russia refuses to acknowledge it. But there are accounts of people who were there, soldiers, officials, photographers etc. and the info is buried in international medical reports. Not just Chernobyl (thousands did die there) but pretty much all of Russia’s habits re nuclear wastes have been horrible. Oh they back up trucks to open lakes and just dump the radioactive waste in. When the lake becomes too radioactive, they thought about filling it in with rocks and dirt but their scientists said that this would force radioactive waste into the ground water of surrounding areas so - radioactive lakes dot the land here and there. Untended, a chemical explosion blew tons of radioactive waste into the surrounding country side and Russia of course denied it but satellite photos captured trees lying down pointed away from the blast for miles around. Oh but it’s always away from the urban centers. They neither treat nor tell the people living around radioactive waste sites. They’ve made odd little radioactive silos for nuclear wastes in the Urals but didn’t tell even their own people so the natives living there have folk tales of ‘the sickness’ that people get if they stay near those things.


35 posted on 04/04/2011 11:07:28 PM PDT by ransomnote
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To: ransomnote

Do you have documents to back up that drivel?


36 posted on 04/04/2011 11:15:28 PM PDT by aquila48
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To: aquila48

Ah I guess you are using the word ‘drivel’ to refer to information you don’t like?

Let’s see, there are several radioactive open lakes in Russia but here’s a link to get you started. Once you get the names down you can find more documentation from other sources.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayak
Here’s another
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster_
and another
http://kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2010/08/15/12391.shtml

For a more accurate take on Chernobyl, try the YOUTUBE video series The Battle For Chernobyl (ten part series, each part is about 10 minutes). It includes interviews with Gorbychev, Hans Blix, people who were there etc. When I went to get the link to the first part for you, I found the video present in one piece lasting 1 hour 32 minutes - this is probably more convenient. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiCXb1Nhd1o
There are other excellent videos - Nova’s series Inside Chernobyl’s Sarcophagus is good too as is “ Chernobyl - the severe days”

And an example of an international medical report:
From the NEA.org website report on Chernobyl:

“For the eight years prior to 1986, only five cases of childhood (less than 15 years old on the day of accident) thyroid cancer were seen in Minsk, which is the main Belarussian centre for thyroid cancer diagnosis and treatment for children (De94). From 1986 to 1989, 3 to 6 cases of thyroid cancer in children were seen annually in Belarus. In 1990, the number jumped to 31, to 62 in 1991, then to 87 in 1993. By the end of 1998 the total had reached over 600 in Belarus. Nearly 50% of the early (1992) thyroid cancers appeared in children who were aged between one and four years at the time of the accident. Atthe same time 382 were diagnosed in the Ukraine.

The histology of the cancers has shown that nearly all were papillary carcinomata (Ni94) and that they were particularly aggressive, often with prominent local invasion and distant metastases, usually to the lungs. This has made the treatment of these children less successful than expected, whether undertaken in Minsk or in specialised centres in Europe. In all, about 150 000 children in Belarus had thyroid uptake measurements following the accident. Other data from Ukraine and Russia show a similar, but not as pronounced, increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer since 1987. “

Here are the member countries of the Nuclear Energy Agency:
http://www.oecd-nea.org/nea/mcnea.html

This link sounds interesting if only I had a subscription:
ACCIDENTS WITH POPULATION EXPOSURES (PDF File)
Urals, Russia, was the site of several serious radiation events. So far. only fragmentary descriptions of the situ- ation have been published in the open ...
rpd.oxfordjournals.org/content/62/1-2/87.full.pdf

*sigh*

This one is just plain sad:

Abstract
Chelyabinsk was one of the former Soviet Union’s main military production centers, which included nuclear weapons manufacturing. Accidents, nuclear waste disposal and day to day operation of the Mayak reactor and radiochemical plant contaminated a vast area of the province. In the early 1950s there were so many occurrences of death and disease from the nuclear waste dumping in the Techa river that 22 villages along the river banks in a 50 kilometers zone downstream from Mayak were evacuated. In 1957, a nuclear waste storage tank accident released radiation double the amount released by the Chernobyl accident. This accident was kept secret and 10,700 people were evacuated. The severe environmental contamination of this region led to dramatic increases in cancer rates, birth defects, and sterility. Over the past 33 years, there has been a 21% increase in the incidences of cancer, 25% increase in birth defects and 50% of the population of child bearing age are sterile. http://www.wentz.net/radiate/cheyla/index.htm

Here’s another link”
http://articles.latimes.com/1993-01-30/news/mn-1908_1_nuclear-disaster

I’ll include my own anecdote here:
had dinner with a Russian nuclear scientist who told us all about a talk he was to give to an international body of scientists gathering in Georgia (USA). He was excited to be the one to brag to the foreign scientists about Russia’s innovations to remove the problem of radioactive waste (shortly before Chernobyl) . This was in the 1980’s. He stood up and began to tell them all about the way that Russia had conserved the waste by mixing them into concrete used to make schools and hospitals. First one scientist jumped to his feet to call to him “Please tell me this isn’t true!” then another. Pandemonium ensued as the audience recoiled in horror. My friend sheepishly said that Russia didn’t understand the health impacts very well and assumed that dilution with concrete was sufficient and believed that all the furor in the west about what to do with nuclear waste really had more to do with an unwillingness to waste valuable resources.

I am having trouble finding the link for the white domes that cause people to become sick by standing near them because the page it appeared on was basically exploring the folk knowledge saying that these were actually from aliens! I’ll see if I can find it looking back through the history of my browser. It was certainly odd - the domes are said to have no door and be covered with a nail-file like abrasive substance that cannot be scratched? Strange.


37 posted on 04/04/2011 11:49:02 PM PDT by ransomnote
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To: Red6

You make many excellent points. We really need to keep things in perspective. What the media never tells us for some reason, is that coal-fired power pollution kills an estimated 10,000 to 50,000 people every year in American alone, according to major studies. That means that more people have died due to coal-fired power than have died due to nuclear power EVEN SINCE THE CRISIS STARTED IN JAPAN.

Check out my webpage on nuclear power at http://RussP.us/nucpower.htm


38 posted on 04/04/2011 11:56:04 PM PDT by RussP
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To: SeekAndFind

Not to mention deaths by Godzilla.


39 posted on 04/04/2011 11:59:27 PM PDT by When do we get liberated? (A socialist is a communist who realizes he must suck at the tit of Capitalism.)
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To: ransomnote; aquila48
From the NEA.org website report on Chernobyl:

“For the eight years prior to 1986, only five cases of childhood (less than 15 years old on the day of accident) thyroid cancer were seen in Minsk, which is the main Belarussian centre for thyroid cancer diagnosis and treatment for children (De94). From 1986 to 1989, 3 to 6 cases of thyroid cancer in children were seen annually in Belarus. In 1990, the number jumped to 31, to 62 in 1991, then to 87 in 1993. By the end of 1998 the total had reached over 600 in Belarus. Nearly 50% of the early (1992) thyroid cancers appeared in children who were aged between one and four years at the time of the accident. At the same time 382 were diagnosed in the Ukraine.


At the same time, though, the incidence of these cancers over the decades since has dropped in a linear fashion with increasing proximity to Chernobyl. So if anything the dose/response is the reverse of what you claim. Also, "The projections of thousands of late cancer deaths based on LNT, are in conflict with observations that in comparison with general population of Russia, a 15% to 30% deficit of solid cancer mortality was found among the Russian emergency workers, and a 5% deficit solid cancer incidence among the population of most contaminated areas."

With respect to pediatric thyroid cancer in the region, the incidence was very low compared to the typical incidence in many other regions of the world as was the exposure to radiation (about 1mSv/year compared to the average of 2.4 mSv/year). Why the increase? You find what you're looking for. It's call the screening effect.
The number of 4000 new thyroid cancers registered among the children from Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine should be viewed with respect to the extremely high occurrence of these dormant subclinical malignant tumors that contain transformed tumor cells and are quite common in the population (Akslen and Naumov 2008; Weinberg 2008). This is exemplified by occult thyroid cancers, the incidence of which varies from 5.6% in Colombia, 9.0% in Poland, 9.3% in Minsk, Belarus, 13% in the United States, 28% in Japan, to 35.6% in Finland (Harach et al 1985; Moosa and Mazzaferri 1997). In Finland occult thyroid cancers are observed in 2.4% of children (Harach et al 1985), i.e., some 90 times more than the maximum observed in the Bryansk region. In Minsk, Belarus the normal incidence of occult thyroid cancers is 9.3% (Furmanchuk et al 1993). The “Chernobyl” thyroid cancers are of the same histological type and are similar in invasiveness to the “occult cancers” (Moosa and Mazzaferri 1997; Tan and Gharib 1997). Since 1995 the number of registered cancers has tended to decline. This is not in agreement with what we know about radiation induced thyroid cancers whose latency period is about 5 – 10 years after irradiation exposure (Inskip 2001) and whose risk increases until 15 – 29 years after exposure (UNSCEAR 2000a). In the United States the incidence rate of thyroid tumors detected between 1974 and 1979 during a screening program was 21 times higher than before the screening (Ron et al 1992), an increase similar to that observed in three former Soviet countries. It appears that the increased registration of thyroid cancers in contaminated parts of these countries is a classical screening effect.

40 posted on 04/05/2011 12:32:33 AM PDT by aruanan
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To: ransomnote

I apologize for the “drivel” reference - it was a knee-jerk reaction after reading your: “ the thousands of people in Russia who die from Chernobyl and other Russian nuclear pollution hot spots.”

I thought we were talking about deaths from energy production, not weapons. And focusing on what may or may not have happened in the secretive Soviet Union is hardly relevant, both because as you say we really can’t know everything that went on, and it’s not how we run our country. What was deadly in the soviet union was not the particular industries you talk about but the system - the government - that created and ran them. And as bad as that was, the secret police and the gulags were a lot worse.

But getting back on topic, here’s the 10 year assessment of Chernobyl from the NEA:

“The acute health effects occurred among the plant personnel and the persons who intervened in the emergency phase to fight fires, provide medical aid and immediate clean-up operations. A total of 31 people died as a consequence of the accident, and about 140 people suffered various degrees of radiation sickness and radiation-related acute health impairment. No members of the general public suffered these kinds of effects.”

According to the WHO, of the people that contracted thyroid cancer nine have died.

So we have a total of 40 people dead - this from the worst accident ever. All the other nuclear accidents have contributed 0 deaths. Compare this to an airplane going down, or coal mine disasters, or chemical plant explosions, or people killed in car accidents. It is trivial!!

The part that is not trivial is the psychological fear that people have of nuclear accidents as summarized by the NEA:

“An important effect of the accident, which has a bearing on health, is the appearance of a widespread status of psychological stress in the populations affected. The severity of this phenomenon, which is mostly observed in the contaminated regions of the former Soviet Union, appears to reflect the public fears about the unknowns of radiation and its effects, as well as its mistrust towards public authorities and official experts, and is certainly made worse by the disruption of the social networks and traditional ways of life provoked by the accident and its long-term consequences.”

Based on the actual data presented on mortality rate of the various energy sources, this fear is IRRATIONAL. But it’s there nonetheless.

It’s there because you can’t see or feel radiation, and it’s such an unknown that people fear it, because, not being able to see it or feel it, you can’t protect yourself against it. Additionally, because nuclear accidents are so rare, unlike mine explosions, airplane crashes, people falling off roofs, car crashes, etc, when they happen it’s a big deal and the press plays up all the old fears. You could say that the nuclear record for safety is its own worse enemy.


41 posted on 04/05/2011 12:56:20 AM PDT by aquila48
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To: aruanan

Hilarious! Dispute the accounts of people who were there (The Battle For Chernobyl) who tell us 600 pilots died, 2500 miners died etc. (and listen to the body count go up throughout the film) with the conjecture that it was the screening effect! So consuming radioactive material, receiving huge doses while standing in the fallout for a MayDay celebration have no ill effects??? IT’s sad but many people live their entire lives in radioactive contaminated areas in Russia - the heartbreaking documentaries on birth defects and illness are there and no- sadly they are not the result of the screening effect. Oh I could post again the information I have posted elsewhere but those who support radiation as vigorously as you are just not going to accept that. It has to have an amazingly PERFECT history of PERFECT management and PERFECT transparency. Our plans for new plant designs will likewise be perfect, our testing and responses during a crisis will be perfect etc. Even when you are watching Japan’s workers make human errors - we’ll be the perfect ones!
I have been back and forth on the nuclear issue because my background is in science. But reading up on the Chernobyl disaster and Russia’s horrific history of radioactive pollution and watching the Japanese contend with TEPCO’s silence and denial for which they have since apologized has directed my attention to the actual problem of nuclear energy - the people. People who need to deny the actual damage that has occurred and people who deny that humans are imperfect and manage radiation imperfectly. In the eyes of the vigorous supporter - those of us who count actual costs are just looking at the wrong set of numbers or are too backward. Those of us who say humans are flawed and hence their management of that kind of power are likewise flawed are just ‘scared and ignorant’. I cringe to think of how those people whose lives have been destroyed by Russia’s management of nuclear power would react to hear that the way their people and their countries sufferings are really just a screening effect.


42 posted on 04/05/2011 1:28:19 AM PDT by ransomnote
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To: aruanan

Hilarious! Dispute the accounts of people who were there (The Battle For Chernobyl) who tell us 600 pilots died, 2500 miners died etc. (and listen to the body count go up throughout the film) with the conjecture that it was the screening effect! So consuming radioactive material, receiving huge doses while standing in the fallout for a MayDay celebration have no ill effects??? IT’s sad but many people live their entire lives in radioactive contaminated areas in Russia - the heartbreaking documentaries on birth defects and illness are there and no- sadly they are not the result of the screening effect. Oh I could post again the information I have posted elsewhere but those who support radiation as vigorously as you are just not going to accept that. It has to have an amazingly PERFECT history of PERFECT management and PERFECT transparency. Our plans for new plant designs will likewise be perfect, our testing and responses during a crisis will be perfect etc. Even when you are watching Japan’s workers make human errors - we’ll be the perfect ones!
I have been back and forth on the nuclear issue because my background is in science. But reading up on the Chernobyl disaster and Russia’s horrific history of radioactive pollution and watching the Japanese contend with TEPCO’s silence and denial for which they have since apologized has directed my attention to the actual problem of nuclear energy - the people. People who need to deny the actual damage that has occurred and people who deny that humans are imperfect and manage radiation imperfectly. In the eyes of the vigorous supporter - those of us who count actual costs are just looking at the wrong set of numbers or are too backward. Those of us who say humans are flawed and hence their management of that kind of power are likewise flawed are just ‘scared and ignorant’. I cringe to think of how those people whose lives have been destroyed by Russia’s management of nuclear power would react to hear that the way their people and their countries sufferings are really just a screening effect.


43 posted on 04/05/2011 1:28:31 AM PDT by ransomnote
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To: aquila48

I guess you really don’t have any choice but deny the evidence because the facts weigh against your assertions. How could you acknowledge the death and suffering from Chernobyl and Russia’s policies and still insist that those of us who say there is cause for concern are irrational. You are backed into a corner so you must insist that history never happened.

I SAID: “ the thousands of people in Russia who die from Chernobyl and other Russian nuclear pollution hot spots.”

YOU SAID: I thought we were talking about deaths from energy production, not weapons.”

Actually I was specific about nuclear pollution - that is what happens to radioactive material once it is no longer in use - doesn’t matter whether it was from weapons or energy production. Apparently you decline to acknowledge the catastrophic effects of Chernobyl in the documentary I linked to. And the links of how Russian’s treat nuclear wastes - the ‘so many people were dying and sick’ that they relocated towns along a radioactive river...never happened? Hmmm...I can see the strength in your tactic...just say it never happened. How simple.

“And focusing on what may or may not have happened in the secretive Soviet Union is hardly relevant, both because as you say we really can’t know everything that went on, and it’s not how we run our country. “

Oh it’s really not disposed of that easily. Large tracts of radioactive lands, long histories of death and illness destroy your assertion that there are x number deaths from coal and X number deaths from gas etc. but look at how safe nuclear energy is! You compared coal pollution to nuclear pollution. But London recovered from streets blackened with coal but vast areas of Russia are permanently (for all intents and purposes - that’ according to experts who point out you’d have to remove the soil from the ground and bury it....where?) uninhabitable and when forest fires or droughts put the radiation back into the air - new areas are again contaminated. Oh I know we are not Russia but there are SOME similarities. Russia didn’t inform it’s people when they were standing outdoors within easy view of the smoke stack next to the crater sending radiation their way - it wanted to keep them calm so they opened up the new Ferris wheel and let them ride it! High into the radioactive air! There’s the attitude in Japan, Russia, and on this board that presupposes that normal people are simply incompetent and incapable of understanding information so the information is not given to them. Russia denies it’s grim history and supporters embrace their denial with vigor. At the end of the video series, that Documentary (Battle For Chernobyl) recounts how the international nuclear body listened to the bare facts as presented, acted stunned, revised the numbers drastically downward. Well I guess that was to be expected in hindsight - they were pro nuclear power at all costs. The panel rejected the bare facts and reduced the radiation reported to 1/10th the original etc. This is the history of the vigorous supporters of nuclear power - revise the numbers downward, ridicule ‘outsiders’ as too ignorant to understand, don’t tell them because they just won’t ‘get it’. Call them emotional or irrational etc. That impetus to mock, deride and ignore - anyone who points out to natural human fallibility must be discredited.
Human errors lead to explosions and cave ins when speaking of coal. When speaking of human error in relation to nuclear energy, then it can lead to portions of land being permanently uninhabitable - Chernobyl is still a ghost town, even though they did try to clean it, and the original site of devastating death and injury - if the victim’s own words are to be believed. There are, based on what happened to the health of the liquidators (people who cleanup up the Chernobyl area) in Russia, no plans to continue cleaning efforts on the vast expanses of unlivable land in Russia.
It’s quite disturbing to hear those interviewed on the Youtube series assert that no human deserves to go through what they went through - and then hear nuclear power supporters suggest it never happened. Yes the Soviets denied all but a few casualties and those who need to cheerlead nuclear power in spite of the facts will grasp at those little numbers very appreciatively.

The efforts of heroic Japanese and support from foreign nations is making it less likely that large portions of Japan will become permanently unlivable - but the battle isn’t won yet. I am getting the feeling that the perilous battle they have been fighting will also be discarded by supporters - never happened, all is well, everything under control, never was in danger. etc. I hope for the best possible outcome for them - no human should experience the problems they are having with radiation.

I worked with radioactive cesium in college - the ‘public safety officer’ pointlessly exposed me to radiation when he could of just told me the process instead of opening the can and lifting out the source with a ten foot pole. I made no complaint at the time - I understood that I was X feet away from a source giving off X radiation for X minutes. He could have spared me that dose but he didn’t. Oh and then he didn’t mean to drop it (it was hard to hold with that grasping pole) and as it rolled closer to us in the lab, we crowded into the corner of the room - where there was no exit. But the man was trying to perform his job ‘perfectly’ so he didn’t return the source to the lead canister for awhile as he crept closer and closer to the source as he tried to knock the dust off of it (it picked up some big dust bunnies when it rolled). And then, when he thought I wasn’t looking, he dusted it off with his BARE HAND. He has no idea what dose he received but he had to know if he was ‘trained’ and received a permit etc. that required him to handle it with a 10 foot pole that he should not touch it with his hand. But if asked about it - I’m sure he’d say it never happened and my eye witness account could be discounted as ‘ignorance’ or ‘exaggerated fear’ etc.

People are human, designs are made by humans, decisions - by humans, emergency responses - human again. Unless you talk to a vigorously pro nuke person who INSISTS that no one has EVER been harmed by it, we have the answers now and we are different blah blah blah. What I hear is - we still won’t acknowledge lessons learned and we will function with 100% precision - even in an earthquake with the power out following a tsunami and what’s more - we won’t tell the public what is really going on (emergencies etc.) because they are outsiders and therefore we don’t trust them to think etc. Coal energy’s history is laden with error and yet we’ve never faced the potential for disaster that Russia did with nuclear energy production - as the minutes counted down and they raced to avoid contaminating the entire water table of Russia and Europe with radioactivity. Oh and that part of the video where they said ‘half of Europe would become unlivable’ had they not been able to avert a second explosion. Oh what do they know - they were just nuclear physicists who were there handling the crisis at the time.
Oh yes, the NEA has indeed discredited themselves completely by endorsing the Soviet need to falsely portray the number of actual deaths and reducing the levels of radiation exposure to 1/10 of what was reported. Once it becomes part of the NEA - why then EVERYONE can claim it. There’s video of a helicopter pilot flying right into the direct path of lethal radiation - he becomes disoriented and the copter crashes upside down into the reactor with 4 people on board - yeah the Russians denied that those four were casualties of chernobyl too. Nothing to see here...move along...unless you watch the Nova Series and find out that the ‘sarcophagus’ that they built over the reactor is...ah...unstable and if it collapses...will send a dense plume of radioactivity over them again.

Thousands died, thousands more suffered, but they’ve got the number down to what...31? As long as governments and supporters need to distort reality THAT MUCH to justify their desires - something is REALLY wrong with nuclear power.


44 posted on 04/05/2011 2:23:02 AM PDT by ransomnote
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To: ransomnote
Do you disagree?

***The real options are coal or nuclear.***

-Coal produces hydrocarbons that are carcinogenic. An average US plant throws out 220 tons per year.

-Coal mining is hazardous and produced casualties every year.

-An “average” US coal plant, even with scrubbers produces ~500 tons of small sized soot particles, 170 pounds of Hg, 225 pounds of As, 114 pounds of Pb, 4 pounds of Cd it throws into the air per year.

-Coal mining has other health risks such as from coal dust itself (inhalation) and coal dust explosions etc.

-Coal powered plants produce in volume and weight >100,000 times the refuse in sludge etc. compared to nuclear power. Within this sludge are in part highly toxic and carcinogenic organic compounds.

-Coal burning produces H2SO4, the primary culprit for acid rain.

-Coal burning produces NO, NO2 and HNO3, another culprit for acid rain but also a contributor to smog.

-Coal burning produces CO2, and CO.

-Coal burning produces other toxic and hazardous chemicals such as dioxin ( tetrachloro- through octachloro- dioxins and furans )which are also set free into the atmosphere.

-Coal mining often involves strip mining and the quantity required mined is in excess >100,000 times that for nuclear.

Sources:

http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/ap42/ch01/final/c01s01.pdf

http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/

http://www.msha.gov/MSHAINFO/FactSheets/MSHAFCT2.HTM

As to the reasoning of people that have their hair on fire about nuclear power now: Anything goes wrong with nuclear power = cause for concern. Every day coal plants spewing crap into the air = no concern.

There is no such thing as an energy solution without costs and risks. Even the so called “green” alternative sources (a gravy train for many- GE is milking that cow for all she's worth) have environmental impacts and safety concerns associated with them beyond their reliability and cost issues. It is the later two aspects combined with the fact that there is a diminishing return on investment and low energy density that is their true undoing. Green power is an ideological movement and gravy train, nothing more. The real backbone of “ALL” industrialized nations opting out of nuclear is coal: Germany, Australia, Poland........ It's really simply an issue between nuclear and coal, that's it! Politicians can have their picture taken in-front of wind and solar farms all they want, but the demand for cheap and reliable power remains.

As to Fukushima. Unless you work there, unless you're the GE engineer that designed the reactor, unless you're one of the responders on site working there, all you know is second hand information. Nearly everything we get is speculative, sensationalist, factually incorrect in part and incomplete. So, what are you basing you arguments on? News headlines and what your friends and family all feel. This sort of crap: http://www.kktv.com/news/headlines/Radiation_Detected_in_US_Airports_118216979.html (near where I live)

My pewny high school honors and two semesters in college physics combined with a collateral duty as NBC officer in an Infantry unit (little 2 week training course- I wasn't an NBC officer) taught me enough to know that much of what I read is simple BS. OMG, OMG they found radiation at our airport! OMG, OMG, the fuel rods are exposed! OMG, OMG, The China syndrome! OMG, OMG......(Real story lines or headlines I base my OMG's on BTW) What if I tell you I can already PREDICT (not all, but some) future headlines!?!? Believe that? Wanna bet? Soon you'll read about traces of "X" in mothers milk........ I have more. FYI- If you have prostate cancer and are seeded, you'll set those detectors off at airports, that go off 580,000 a year because of their sensitivity. The granite coutertop everyone wants in their home, yeah that tends to radiate slightly....... Do you know that what they use in smoke detectors is actually pretty darn radioactive, like far more than any of the run off from Fukushima........? I hope you don't plan on living or vacationing in parts of CO soon where the natural background radiation is higher than at ground zero (Trinity test site). Anything "nuclear" get the smart ones among us worried.

"Green" = good

"Nuclear" = bad

Got it.

(Sources)

http://www.bardurological.com/patient/faq.aspx?bUnitID=1

http://www.royalfree.nhs.uk/pdf/cancer/Radioactive_seed_implant.pdf

http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/sources/smoke_alarm.html

http://www.cddc.vt.edu/host/atomic/trinity/trinity50_1.html

45 posted on 04/05/2011 7:53:13 AM PDT by Red6
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To: catnipman

[Anyone think these bozos have a clue about what they are doing? I don’t.”

If you are such a genius, perhaps you should volunteer to go over there with RummyChick and stop the leak by yourself? Obviously you guys are smarter than fifty trained Japanese engineers on site.

I guarantee you are so smart you do your own toilet plumbing, right? Fix your own car?


46 posted on 04/05/2011 8:37:29 AM PDT by DaxtonBrown (HARRY: Money Mob & Influence (See my Expose on Reid on amazon.com written by me!))
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To: ransomnote
“People are human, designs are made by humans, decisions - by humans, emergency responses - human again. Unless you talk to a vigorously pro nuke person who INSISTS that no one has EVER been harmed by it, we have the answers now and we are different blah blah blah. What I hear is - we still won’t acknowledge lessons learned and we will function with 100% precision -”

Courts are human, and they too they can't sentence someone because they might make a mistake also, right?!

What a bunch of ignorant relativistic gibberish.... Humans with a mind make decisions and realize that even waking up and driving to work poses a risk = (Magnitude x probability). They make decisions based on costs and benefits, where risks are considered. They weigh the alternatives and then make a pragmatic decision, something some people can't do anymore.

“Apparently you decline to acknowledge the catastrophic effects of Chernobyl in the documentary I linked to.

What is the credibility of this documentary? In a 20 year retrospective (International study) they talk about 32 - 50 dead from the immediate high level exposure and a “marginal” (As in statistically noticeable and with a probable correlation but not significant) increase in some diseases for those exposed after the incident around the reactor. BTW- Today Chernobyl is a sort of natural habitat with wild life all over the place. Yes, you can even take a tour: http://tourkiev.com/chernobyltour/

Seriously, I can't watch the video at work. What are they up to now? It was “HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS WILL DIE!” Is it now “MILLIONS HAVE DIED?” 32-50 vs. millions, just a slight variance.

“Actually I was specific about nuclear pollution “ Pollution by definition as used in the eco vernacular is the consequence of any human activity. To the eco crowd the goal is minimization of any human impact of their green tree goddess, not the safety and well being of humans.

“And the links of how Russian’s treat nuclear wastes “
That highly dangerous and scary waste comes from where? Buddy, what do you think they mine in places like Uranium City Canada? Nuclear power is straight from mother earth herself. Go green, go nuclear! There, I used the word “green,” feel better about it now? If I took all the evil waste and ground it up and simply sprinkled it all over the nation, dilution itself would take care of the issue. The so called waste and other fissile material is largely (like 99.9%) from the earth in the first place! Simply more concentrated.

“long histories of death and illness destroy your assertion that there are x number deaths from coal and X number deaths from gas etc. but look at how safe nuclear energy is! “ Very safe, and unlike you, he can back his claim with real numbers, not imaginary ones.

” being permanently uninhabitable “ What planet do you live on? Hell, Trinity test site where they lit a nuke would be safe to live at were in not still an active range. It's open twice a year to visit BTW: http://www.nmts.org/rides/trinitySite.htm (I know, it's a conspiracy and it's actually really really dangerous....... but they don't want us to know! They revised the numbers downward) In all your “open mindedness” if you were interested, they do the tours twice a year, very nice: http://nuclearmuseum.org/

“There’s the attitude in Japan, Russia, and on this board that presupposes that normal people are simply incompetent and incapable of understanding information so the information is not given to them.” Let me ask you this, doesn't the hysteria in our media, the ignorant ideas surrounding nuclear power, weapons etc sort of prove they are right? If they gave tours of the power plant near where I live (Comanche Peak) someone like you might chain himself to a cooling tower.

“It’s quite disturbing to hear those interviewed on the Youtube series assert that no human deserves to go through what they went through - “ Rational people look for correlations, risks and find pragmatic solutions to problems affecting them. I hope my children don't die from a vaccine, the probability that something could happen and that this includes death is real. Does that mean I should not vaccinate them? After all, I hope they never have to go through what some of those people suffer and die from when they do react to these vaccines in various ways.

You make no sense....... Why don't you go talk about your “feelings” to a grief counselor, after all you appear to be stricken hard by those pictures from Japan and Chernobyl video's that are so scientific and factual.

47 posted on 04/05/2011 9:01:50 AM PDT by Red6
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To: Red6

Oh Red6 - Remember me? I am the one who said I would scan for your close minded pre-biased straw man argument laden posts and skip them. So....skip!


48 posted on 04/05/2011 10:01:05 AM PDT by ransomnote
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To: Red6

Oh another biased straw man argument laden post by Red6 for me to SKIP!


49 posted on 04/05/2011 10:02:44 AM PDT by ransomnote
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To: ransomnote

Your arguments, the reasoning behind your positions are awesome!


50 posted on 04/05/2011 10:17:06 AM PDT by Red6
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