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Faux job numbers could lead to real trouble
NY Post ^ | Last Updated: 12:54 AM, April 12, 2011 | By JOHN CRUDELE

Posted on 04/12/2011 5:42:16 AM PDT by Red Badger

Deception is a dangerous thing. You never really know when a lie may turn on you.

Take, for instance, the Labor Department's annual springtime boost in the faux jobs market. While it's nice that the government thinks there is an employment boom coming, this won't be a good development if that boom turns out to be imaginary yet still causes the Federal Reserve to prematurely tighten credit conditions.


Early this month Labor reported that 216,000 new jobs were created in March. It was better than Wall Street expected.

But the figure included 117,000 jobs that the department thinks, but can't prove, were created by newly formed companies that might not even exist. In fact, the department is getting so optimistic about the labor market that it increased this imaginary job count from just 81,000 in March, 2010.

As I've been telling you for months, the spring always causes the Labor Department to goose its job-creation numbers. And maybe sometime in the future this process will be warranted. But during 2009 and 2010 these springtime assumptions -- which are officially called the Birth/Death Model by Labor -- led to major errors in the annual job count.

The next three months should be doozies. In April 2010, the Labor Department guessed that 188,000 jobs were created by these newly formed, maybe nonexistent companies; last May's total job number was jacked up by a 215,000 guess, and June got an artificial boost of 147,000 jobs.

This year, Labor will likely be inserting even bigger faux job totals for each of those three months.

In other words, you still might not be able to get a job in the real world, but there should be plenty of fake jobs for the newspapers to write about and the politicians to brag about in speeches.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: deceitful; fakejobfigures; fakejobnumbers; jobs; unemployment
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To: indylindy

Seems like the job of the GOP is now to try and pacify the Tea Party people. At the same time the Rats are trying to rile up the communist base.

21 posted on 04/12/2011 6:29:37 AM PDT by screaminsunshine (Democrats have spent...More than the Republicans have.)
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To: TomGuy

Last I knew, Gallup was finding 19.3% for its own U6.

22 posted on 04/12/2011 6:31:46 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: screaminsunshine

The GOP needs to be as bellicose about food and gas prices as Trump is about the Birth Certificate.

They just never know how to get out in front on issues that affect citizens every day.

One would think this is the only good that could come out of high prices, a chance to stick it to Obama and the democrats for creating this problem.

But nooooo. You wait, very soon now Obozo will find a way to blame the GOP House for high food and gas prices. Their MSM partners will lie for them and make it so.

23 posted on 04/12/2011 6:49:02 AM PDT by dforest
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To: festusbanjo

That pretty much sums it up.

Kind of like handing out Hope and Change sandwiches to the homeless.

They don’t really get anything so they are still hungry, but the people that are passing out the sandwiches get to feel so good about themselves because they care.

24 posted on 04/12/2011 7:03:47 AM PDT by IMR 4350
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To: Red Badger

go to the debt clock:

Official unemployed: 13,469,505
Actual unemployed: 23,988,759

25 posted on 04/12/2011 7:28:25 AM PDT by Dudoight
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To: TomGuy
BLS has recently dropped 2-3 million jobless who no longer get benefits from the overall jobless numbers.

That is flatly and totally incorrect.

Whether someone is receiving UI benefits has exactly nothing to do with whether or not one is counted as unemployed. It never has and it never will.

The Household Survey is used to determine the percentage rate each month. That survey is based upon a definition that involves being ready and able to work and having recently actively looked for work. It has nothing to do with benefits. BLS reports lots of things that have nothing to do with the unemployment rate. The number of people receiving UI benefits is just one of them.

By November, they will probably have dropped a few million more off in order to get the unemployment rate 8% or lower. It will look good on paper/the news programs, but in reality, will be fabricated numbers.

That's also incorrect, for the same reason.

The BLS numbers are fabricated — to make Obama look good.

You're getting pretty good at coming up with junk that has no relationship to reality.

BLS is staffed by career, professional statisticians. They are not political appointees. They do the best that they can, but are ALWAYS off by some amount. That is why there are annual revisions every year after more data is available. This has been the case for many decades.

Crudele is making a point about the statistical business-birth/death model BLS uses. It is a plug to the Establishment Survey which is used to come up with monthly payroll job gains or losses, NOT the unemployment rate which comes solely from the Household Survey.

It has long been known that the model is inaccurate, but they have to make some estimate because there are exactly zero start-ups in the Establishment Survey, which by its nature consists only of previously existing firms. The problem with the statistical business-birth/death model is that it consistently overestimates start-up job creation early in an expansion and underestimates it late in an expansion.

Nature of the beast. It's got nothing to do with jug-ears.

26 posted on 04/12/2011 9:42:57 AM PDT by AntiScumbag
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To: Red Badger

Deception is a dangerous thing. And Obama proved it.

27 posted on 04/12/2011 10:27:00 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: 9YearLurker
Last I knew, Gallup was finding 19.3% for its own U6.
Not quite. The U-6 is Unemployed + Marginally Attached + Part time for economic reasons as a percent of the Labor Force + Marginally Attached. Gallup's "Underemployment" is Unemployed + part time expressing desire for full time as a percent of the Labor Force.

For both, Unemployed = did not work in the previous week and actively looked for work in the previous 4 weeks, and Labor Force is Employed + Unemployed.
Marginally Attached = Did not work in previous week and did not look for work in previous week but willing and able to work and did look in the previous 12 months.
Part time for Economic reasons (BLS) = worked < 35 hours in previous week due to either cut hours or inability to find full time work.
Part time desiring full time (Gallup) = worked < 30 hrs in previous week and wants to work 30 hours or more.

Note that Gallup's measure does not ask about reason for working part time, so someone working part time to help look after children or due to transportation problems would also count in Gallup's measure, but not BLS's.
28 posted on 04/12/2011 12:29:36 PM PDT by pinqy (()
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