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Only 39% Now Expect Improved Home Values in Five Years
Rasmussen Reports ^ | April 17, 2011 | by Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 04/17/2011 12:32:25 PM PDT by library user

~ EXCERPT ~

Both short and long-term confidence in the U.S. housing market continue to fall, with homeowners now expressing the highest level of pessimism in two years.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 15% of homeowners expect the value of their home to go up in the next year while 33% expect the opposite and think the value of their home will decline.

The current figures reflect more pessimism than a month ago when 19% were optimistic and 30% pessimistic about the value of their home over the next year.

Looking longer term, only 39% of homeowners now think that the value of their home will go up over the next five years. That’s down five points from last month and the lowest level of confidence measured by Rasmussen Reports. In April 2009, 55% expected their house’s value to rise in five year’s time.

Currently, 18% say the value of their home will go down over the next five years and 37% expect little change.

**SNIP**

The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: construction; goldprice; homevalues; homevalueschart; homevaluesgold; housing
Who is buying and holding silver the next 12-24 months, if not further into the future? If you invested $10K in silver this time last year, your investment would be $25K+ now.
1 posted on 04/17/2011 12:32:31 PM PDT by library user
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To: library user
There's at least one million more homes that will be foreclosed over the next two years. As a result, home prices won't be going up anytime soon.

Under HAMP, the can is getting kicked down the road: home mortgages are being modified, reducing monthly payments upwards of $800-$1000.

The real problem for 3/4 of these folks isn't their home mortgage, it's their credit card debt. Their ability to pay those down is being devoured by gas prices heading to $5/gallon.

Obama's being too cute by half. We all know he wants gas prices to skyrocket, yet he's too narcissitic to realize that he won't be re-elected next year unless gas prices fall back to $3/gallon.

2 posted on 04/17/2011 12:42:25 PM PDT by Night Hides Not (If Dick Cheney = Darth Vader, then Joe Biden = Dark Helmet)
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To: library user
Only 39% Now Expect Improved Home Values in Five Years

Improved home values???

Hell, even some of my squishy moderate friends are now asking me to recommend them a good home defense firearm for SHTF because they know I'm a gun enthusiast.

I don't think that "improved home value" even enters the thought process.

3 posted on 04/17/2011 12:44:27 PM PDT by SIDENET ("If that's your best, your best won't do." -Dee Snider)
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To: library user
If I had bought Microsoft IPO, how much would it be worth today. Problem is I haven't got the flux capacitor working at the moment, so your information is worthless.
4 posted on 04/17/2011 12:46:00 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: Night Hides Not
I bet it much more than a million. About 13% of all the homes in the country are empty. So hell what's a few million more, and sooner are later the ones kicked down the road will also be foreclosed on. I don't care what the shysters in the real estate and loan market say, if you cannot afford a down payment you cannot afford a house.
5 posted on 04/17/2011 12:51:52 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: Night Hides Not

YOY last December saw 6.1 million foreclosures with an estimated 12.6 million more in the next 36 month.

January decline forecast was a 10% median reduction by June.
It was reached by the end of March.

CRE is now rolling down hill and will only make the entire
market tank further.

Don’t be a knife catcher.

SFH near here sold 2009 for $475k, resold last week for $220k. In 2006, valued at $625K.


6 posted on 04/17/2011 12:54:12 PM PDT by OregonRancher (Some days, it's not even worth chewing through the restraints)
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To: org.whodat

Microsoft’s IPO was March 13, 1986.

One share was $21.

Today one original share would be worth appx. $5,000.

In other words, a $10,000 investment in Microsoft in 1986 would be worth appx. $2.5M today.


7 posted on 04/17/2011 12:57:31 PM PDT by library user (Just because you're homeless doesn't mean you're lazy.)
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To: OregonRancher; org.whodat
You're both right, my guesstimate is likely optimistic.

Case-Schiller Index is trending poorly, too.

8 posted on 04/17/2011 12:58:42 PM PDT by Night Hides Not (If Dick Cheney = Darth Vader, then Joe Biden = Dark Helmet)
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To: library user
Got to spend more time on that damn capacitor.
9 posted on 04/17/2011 1:04:31 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: library user

We stepped out on a home in Myrtle Beach, SC in the hopes of selling the property in about 5 years or so. The thing here is location, although there are many foreclosures on the market that could keep the prices down area wide. Ours is a quiet, (even during the sporadic bike week), kid friendly neighborhood four blocks off of the ocean, with a great corner lot, so our investment will probably pay off.


10 posted on 04/17/2011 1:05:58 PM PDT by Big_Harry ( Starve the Beast!)
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To: library user

Instead of bailing out banks on forclosures, they should have used the stimulus razing homes. About the time we walk thru all this excess inventory, the baby boomers will be stepping out of their homes into nursery homes.


11 posted on 04/17/2011 1:08:37 PM PDT by umgud
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To: library user

If I thought there were any buyers for the one I own,
I would sell it tomorrow and I would never buy another one.

Home ownership has become an albatross around your neck.

The homes go on the market here and just sit there...
The only interest is from investors who would but them and rent them out;
but my idiot homeowners association requires homes to be owner-occupied.


12 posted on 04/17/2011 1:15:01 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (Tagline closed for repairs. Please use the next available tagline. We appreciate your patience.)
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To: library user
oh, the price might go up... that doesn't mean it'll be worth more.

from an earlier thread ( link)

year (jan) note my home $ gold $/oz my home in gold(oz) silver $/oz my home in silver(oz)
2006   425k 550 772 9.25 45,946
2007 dems move into congress 380k 625 608 12.75 29,804
2008 dems have congress for one year 290k 885 327 16.00 18,125
2009 dems take whitehouse, 0bama steps in 270k 860 314 12.00 22,500
2010 dems in full swing 250k 1150 217 17.50 14,286
2011 GOP takes back the house 224k 1360 164 29.00 7,724
12 APR 2011 222k 1452 153 40.05 5,543

although it may look like my home value dropped to 50% of what it was in 2006, in real world buying power, it is now 16-20% of what it was in 2006.

the dems and progressives have done a real job on the people of the US

do the math yourself. check out zillow.com for your home value over the passed 5 yrs. plug those values in, calculate the value in terms of ounces of gold and silver... and you'll see how much you've lost

update:
how much exactly?

denomination # ounces market value ($)
gold 619 898,788
silver 40,403 1,618,140.15

13 posted on 04/17/2011 1:15:24 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: SIDENET

Today there are open houses everywhere. I think people are desperate to sell now because it is their last chance. Middle class to upper middle class neighborhoods are looking more run down then I have ever seen.

The public, sadly, are sheep that have no clue.

They keep watching Obama TV which includes Fox and all TV looking for hope. By watching, the fools support those who are destroying them.


14 posted on 04/17/2011 1:16:30 PM PDT by Frantzie (HD TV - Total Brain-washing now in High Def. 3-D Coming soon)
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To: library user

Those 39% are in denial! Most, if not all, are probably Leftists!


15 posted on 04/17/2011 1:22:32 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: Frantzie
Today there are open houses everywhere. I think people are desperate to sell now because it is their last chance. Middle class to upper middle class neighborhoods are looking more run down then I have ever seen

I've seen the same and completely agree.

16 posted on 04/17/2011 2:05:00 PM PDT by SIDENET ("If that's your best, your best won't do." -Dee Snider)
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To: sten

although it may look like my home value dropped to 50% of what it was in 2006, in real world buying power, it is now 16-20% of what it was in 2006.


You are so right, and few people realize this. Most people will cheer when their home “price” (and that of the Dow) are back where they expected them to be, never mind that inflation will be the reason, not increased value.


17 posted on 04/17/2011 2:53:22 PM PDT by Atlas Sneezed ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: library user

No matter what, my county appraisal will continue to go up on my home.


18 posted on 04/17/2011 3:20:27 PM PDT by crosshairs (Say what you want about the South, but you never hear of anyone retiring and moving north.)
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To: library user

Good, people are finally getting realistic. Unfortunately, realism will soon turn to pessimism and we will be 2 years solid into a housing recovery before most people are aware of it. That said, I don’t expect housing to recover in the next 5 years either, but it will certainly bottom. I would be shocked if we don’t get a bottom by 2012. I could be slightly wrong there but I will still be shocked if house prices in most cities are down year over year from 2012 to 2013.

We have a huge glut of housing in some places, which will depress prices and make selling difficult and long, but prices won’t go down forever. At some point, most people will just sit it out or rent their homes out before taking further losses. It seems to me we are getting close to that point. But what do I know?


19 posted on 04/17/2011 4:24:33 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Don't confuse Obama's evil for incompetence.)
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To: Repeal The 17th
If I thought there were any buyers for the one I own, I would sell it tomorrow and I would never buy another one.

Home ownership has become an albatross around your neck.

When everyone is parroting your statements, I will know we are in a housing recovery. Just as approaching the peak of the housing boom, masses were parroting the lie that housing always goes up, renting is always a waste of money, etc. What you are seeing and feeling is the depth of the worst housing bust in 100 years. Your feelings are understandable.

You are wrong to think that housing will never go back up. Maybe for you if you are old enough, but certainly it will cycle back up eventually just as it cycled down. As long as people need shelter, as long as marriages occur, people will demand to "own" homes.

20 posted on 04/17/2011 4:31:48 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Don't confuse Obama's evil for incompetence.)
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

It is the mobility factor that is the problem; moreso than the price or the “investment”.
I have lived in this house for 12 years; and it is my 6th one.
There was a time that you could put a house on the market at a reasonable price
with a fair amount of confidence that it would sell in 3 months or so;
but that is not so any more.
Home ownership is becoming unattractive for many people.


21 posted on 04/17/2011 5:00:38 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (Tagline closed for repairs. Please use the next available tagline. We appreciate your patience.)
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To: Night Hides Not

Houses in Roseville CA that were going for 1.1 million four years ago can now be had for $550,000. A big loss for some, but a big win for others.


22 posted on 04/17/2011 7:30:48 PM PDT by ExtremeUnction
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To: umgud
About the time we walk thru all this excess inventory, the baby boomers will be stepping out of their homes into nursery homes.

Boomers have great big homes that they must dispose of. New families today don't need these houses. The glut will continue.

23 posted on 04/17/2011 7:33:50 PM PDT by ExtremeUnction
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To: Repeal The 17th

Either our recollections differ, or the city/state you are in is different than my experience in Sacramento & San Francisco, California.

We had a housing downturn in 1990/91. For the next few years, it was definitely not easy to sell a house in 3 months. By 1998 or so, then yes, it was easy to sell a house within 3 years.

I was just getting out of college, but I recall the recession of 1981/82 with some very high interest rates caused by Volcker to end the recession. Definitely not a time to be able to sell a home in 3 months. By the time I bough my home in 1987, we were back in the start of a new housing boom and yes, it was easy to sell a house in a couple of months.

Cycles.

1980 - 1986, down.
1987 - 1991, up.
1991 - 1997, down.
1998 - 2006, up.
2007 - ?, down.

Cycles. Up and down. These keep repeating.

Right now we are in a down housing cycle with an economic depression and a credit crisis. Triple whammy. So yes, it is exceedingly difficult for many houses to sell in many places, and it doesn’t help that many owners trying to sell have not been able to keep the house up or bring it to perfect condition for the sale.

A neighbor across the way is selling and the paint is awful If I were him, I would beg, borrow, or steal a paint job or offer my realtor an 8% commission if he would pay for the paint up front and take the cost off the backside of the sale. In this market, he is not going to sell a dumpy looking home in an area where 99% of the homes are more or less immaculate - great paint/roofs, manicured lawns. Most people will look at his paint and assume he was as poor with the house maintenance as he was with the outside paint - which would not surprise me if true.

So yes, we are in a horrible cycle that will last a while and selling a house quickly is next to impossible. In your case, I guess it makes sense never to buy again. For most people, after houses become truly affordable again - as they will — many people will be anxious to buy.

I guarantee more housing up cycles. It is undeniable. In your case, you don’t want to be tied down. Well, that is always a strong consideration. There is nothing wrong with the freedom of renting.


24 posted on 04/17/2011 8:17:18 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Don't confuse Obama's evil for incompetence.)
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To: sten
(updating for today...)

from an earlier thread on april 17th ( link)

year (jan) note my home $ gold $/oz my home in gold(oz) silver $/oz my home in silver(oz)
2006   425k 550 772 9.25 45,946
2007 dems move into congress 380k 625 608 12.75 29,804
2008 dems have congress for one year 290k 885 327 16.00 18,125
2009 dems take whitehouse, 0bama steps in 270k 860 314 12.00 22,500
2010 dems in full swing 250k 1150 217 17.50 14,286
2011 GOP takes back the house 224k 1360 164 29.00 7,724
12 APR 2011 222k 1452 153 40.05 5,543
14 JUL 2011 188k 1586 118 38.46 4,888

although it may look like my home value dropped to 50% of what it was in 2006, in real world buying power, it is now 16-20% of what it was in 2006.

the dems and progressives have done a real job on the people of the US

do the math yourself. check out zillow.com for your home value over the passed 5 yrs. plug those values in, calculate the value in terms of ounces of gold and silver... and you'll see how much you've lost

update:
how much exactly? as of july 14th:

denomination # ounces market value ($)
gold 654 1,037,244
silver 41,058 1,579,501

25 posted on 07/14/2011 1:48:41 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: sten

SFH, 5,500 sq ft, every possible amenity, 2007 price was
2.2 mil, then 1.9, then 1.7, 1.5. down to 995K. Guy
walked into the bank and offered them 500k cash and was
accepted. A beautiful home on groomed grounds. Stole it.


26 posted on 07/14/2011 2:55:31 PM PDT by OregonRancher (Some days, it's not even worth chewing through the restraints)
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