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Marist Poll: Say, Obama might have a big problem getting re-elected
Hotair ^ | 04/20/2011 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 04/20/2011 11:48:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Marist released more data from its poll this week, the same survey that found a significant slide in Barack Obama’s approval ratings — the survey with a +8 advantage for Democrats in the sample. In fact, Democrats comprised 35% of the sample, while Republicans only accounted for 27%. And yet, according to Marist, Obama only has 37% of their respondents committed to a second term for the President (via Newsalert):

President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing. According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationwide — 44% — say they definitely plan to vote against Mr. Obama in 2012. 37% report they definitely plan to vote for him, and 18% are unsure.

Despite the president’s transition into campaign mode, little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last asked it in November. At that time, 48% of voters said they will not support the president in his re-election bid while 36% thought they would. 16%, at the time, were unsure.

Even among Democrats, Obama isn’t a slam-dunk. He gets 70% of that 35% to commit to his re-election bid, but 12% “definitely” plan to vote against him. Obama-cons are in short supply as well, as only 3% of Republicans in the survey will vote for the incumbent. Nearly a majority of independents have made up their mind to oppose Obama, 47%, with only 32% planning on casting a vote for him and 21% undecided.

On other demographics, Obama doesn’t fare much better. He only holds 66% of self-described liberals, with 19% planning on opposing him. Moderates split 44/34 in his favor, a weak result, but not nearly as weak as the income demographics. Obama loses both the under-$50K and over-$50K demos by almost identical splits, 37/45 and 39/45 respectively. Among age demos, Obama only leads among the youngest bloc (18-30YOs), and that just barely a majority, 51/29. Perhaps most alarmingly, he’s losing among both men and wome, 37/43 and 38/45 respectively.

Do Republicans benefit from Obama’s woes? Mitt Romney gets into a statistical dead heat with Obama at 45/46, but so far he’s the only one who does. Mike Huckabee comes close at 43/48, and both improved significantly since January. Sarah Palin, on the other hand, not only doesn’t put a dent in Obama’s numbers at 34/56, it’s almost identical to her January result of 30/56. Donald Trump loses by a similar margin, 38/54. Bear in mind, though, that the eight-point sample skew towards Democrats plays a big role in the head-to-head numbers, and the movement in this series is what actually matters. Romney closed twelve points in the gap, and Huckabee closed ten points, since January.

The Republican nominee matters, but the incumbent has big problems no matter who he ends up facing. Unless Obama can make the economy move in the next year, he is on his way to a single term in office.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; maristpoll; obama; reelected

1 posted on 04/20/2011 11:49:04 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
TWAP
2 posted on 04/20/2011 11:51:34 AM PDT by MichaelAsher54
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To: SeekAndFind
..but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing.

My God...convinced of WHAT!!!

3 posted on 04/20/2011 11:52:42 AM PDT by evad (SHUT IT DOWN!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Head to head polling is stupid at this early date however ROmney and Huckabee both poll pretty good for being this far out from election day. If the primary were going to be between these two men, I’d support Huckabee.

I would vote for either man over Comrade O.


4 posted on 04/20/2011 11:54:29 AM PDT by Grunthor (The man or woman who doesn't forgive has forgotten the price that Christ paid for them on the Cross.)
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To: SeekAndFind
President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing.

As if he ever left campaign mode. Of course he had to announce he's running again or he'd be a lame duck for the next two years. Soros can't have that, not with the destruction of the US uncompleted. He'll hit the campaign trail and laugh at birthers but right before the election he'll come up with some lame excuse to suddenly drop out of the race. There's no way he'll get around the NBC issue no matter how many talking heads are willing to pimp for him.

5 posted on 04/20/2011 11:55:13 AM PDT by bgill (Kenyan Parliament - how could a man born in Kenya who is not even a native American become the POTUS)
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To: evad

His base needs to be convinced that his STASH is not about to run dry!


6 posted on 04/20/2011 11:55:30 AM PDT by Red_Devil 232 (VietVet - USMC All Ready On The Right? All Ready On The Left? All Ready On The Firing Line!)
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To: SeekAndFind; All

This could be the reason why the GOP and the GOP Media is working so hard to help Obama

Attacking Obama Eligibility issue has been a great help for Obama, and his friends on the GOP side will make sure Obama wins.

You notice how the Liberal Media and GOP Talk Radio have teamed up to attack Birthers, Trump, and anyone who brings up Obama’s Birth Cert

The GOP have an easy win, if they want it. Judging by the way the GOP and The GOP Media have acted...they are helping OBama


7 posted on 04/20/2011 11:56:01 AM PDT by UCFRoadWarrior (Karl Rove = Karl Marx)
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8 posted on 04/20/2011 11:56:15 AM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: SeekAndFind
fact, Democrats comprised 35% of the sample, while Republicans only accounted for 27%. And yet, according to Marist, Obama only has 37% of their respondents committed to a second term for the President

I think this sampling difference means less than Mr. Morrisey is trying to make out. It's fairly standard practice to attempt to normalize results to some presumed "standard population." Various pollsters use different ways (which they keep close to the vest) to normalize against their version of a "standard population" -- Zogby's famous "special sauce" is one example.

For example, if we assume party breakdown (Rep-Ind-Dem) goes as 30-40-30, then the 38% and 27% values would be normalized (i.e., scaled) on that basis.

9 posted on 04/20/2011 11:56:31 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: SeekAndFind
If we were to believe April polls from the year before the election, then Obama should have not have even been elected at all.

FLASHBACK APRIL 3 2007

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/april/040307poll-data.pdf

DEMS
Clinton 25.5
Edwards 23.2
Obama 16.3

REPS
Guliani 17.5
McCain 14.4
Romney 9.6

There is a lesson to learn in early polling data. It will change.

10 posted on 04/20/2011 11:56:46 AM PDT by NavyCanDo
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To: SeekAndFind

Marist sees no future for Marxist!


11 posted on 04/20/2011 12:00:03 PM PDT by malos (Call Me Inpressed)
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To: SeekAndFind
"Bear in mind, though, that the eight-point sample skew towards Democrats plays a big role in the head-to-head numbers"

Does anyone remember what the disparity was in 2008 - did the Dems enjoy an 8-point advantage? I believe that the 2010 national turnout was evenly split 35/35 with 29% going Independent. It would be unlikely that the GOP could do as well with Obama on the ticket, but I don't think he'll get the kind of turnout he got 4-years earlier - could be wrong.

It's surprising Romney is doing so well. Huckabee I can understand because he's had several non-FNC media appearances the last several weeks. But, Romney has been almost invisible. I can't remember the last time I have seen Romney on television.

12 posted on 04/20/2011 12:03:42 PM PDT by OldDeckHand
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To: SeekAndFind

Hillery alert!!!! Hillery alert!!!!

This should make that old witch dust off her broomstick and take a ride to the DNC primaries.


13 posted on 04/20/2011 12:04:16 PM PDT by ZULU (Lindsey Graham is a nanometrical pustule of pusillanimous putrescent excrement)
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To: malos

Looking back on the recent election and projecting forward, (.) could lose Florida, definite, North Carolina, definite, Ohio, probably, Pa, possibly, Indiana, Probably and Wisconsin. If so, he cannot win the election no matter if he carries the entire left coast and China.


14 posted on 04/20/2011 12:04:46 PM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: SeekAndFind
Oh he will be reelected. Our only hope is to retake the Senate - veto proof majorities would be nice (probably a dream). Tie him up and make a complete shut down of the Feds for 4 years.

We need conservatives and a purging of most RINOs.
15 posted on 04/20/2011 12:05:13 PM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: malos

Obama is in trouble, but can still win re-election.

Obama beat McCain by 365 to 173 in the electoral vote.

Obama has virtually no chance of carrying any of the McCain states, so the Republican nominee starts with a base of the 173. Add about 6 due to gains of electoral votes in these states due to reapportionment, and we’re up to 179 as a base for the Republican.

Add to the Republican column North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, which Obama carried but likely won’t this time. Add back Ohio, which Obama is in trouble in. Add all these, and the Republican is in striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed. Florida could well go Republican in 2012 also. If all of these happen, Obama can’t win re-election, just due to these states alone.

I don’t underestimate Obama and the Dems. and the MSM, but, he’s clearly vulnerable in 2012.


16 posted on 04/20/2011 12:06:56 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: SeekAndFind
No Muslim has ever been reelected as president.

Also, no one without a birth certificate has ever been reelected either.

17 posted on 04/20/2011 12:08:32 PM PDT by cruise_missile (Obummer dumber than a teleprompter.)
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To: Grunthor

“I would vote for either man over Comrade O.”

Agreed though neither one is my first choice i would support either one if they emerged the GOP nominee


18 posted on 04/20/2011 12:11:51 PM PDT by DM1
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To: SeekAndFind
As of today, Tuesday, April 20th, the Rasmussen site has the stain sitting at 46.5% "Overall Approval" rating; just where it's been since mid-year 2008.

If the rate does not drop - AND REMAIN - below 36%, the stain will win re-election in 2012.

19 posted on 04/20/2011 12:13:52 PM PDT by Logic n' Reason ("I'm an expert on life...after shit happens." (Dead Like Me))
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To: ZULU

The fix is in—Obama will be the next president—and president for life. Hillary is done, Palin finished, In a race between Mitt and Obama I will vote Obama and finish the work of bringing the USA into the worker’s paradise. See you in the Labor camps Comrade. i will be digging salt next to Glen Beck.


20 posted on 04/20/2011 12:14:00 PM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: cruise_missile

Tho it infuses me with nausea....there’s always a first time.


21 posted on 04/20/2011 12:21:18 PM PDT by Logic n' Reason ("I'm an expert on life...after shit happens." (Dead Like Me))
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To: cruise_missile

Tho it infuses me with nausea....there’s always a first time.


22 posted on 04/20/2011 12:21:18 PM PDT by Logic n' Reason ("I'm an expert on life...after shit happens." (Dead Like Me))
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To: Dilbert San Diego

There must be some Dems that are saying, “How do we get rid of this guy?”

How about getting Trump to masquerade as a Republican and have at him!


23 posted on 04/20/2011 12:21:48 PM PDT by Poincare
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To: SeekAndFind

we are giving 25 Million to libian rebels....anyone know what for???????? anyone know anything about the so called rebels and why they are so important to the USA?????


24 posted on 04/20/2011 12:29:44 PM PDT by dalebert
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To: Dilbert San Diego

I like Dilbert San Diego’s Post. It’s a much better way of looking at things (state by state) than looking at national numbers.

I like this site to play with scenarios

http://www.270towin.com/

I start with 2008 GOP=173
+6 EV for Census (as per Dilbert)

+1 EV for nebraska’s CD that was calculated separately
+15 EV for N. carolina
+11 EV for indiana
= 206 EV
+ 29 for FL and +18 for Ohio (fingers crossed)
= 253 EV. So need 17 more.

I hope Virginia will come back to GOP (based on 2009-10) but many people in northern virginia are personally benefiting from Obama’s looting of the rest of the country

so lets add +13 for Virgina and then we’re at 266EV

So in addition to the states Dilbert SD mentions we need one more state from the following target list
(New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin).

I think New Hampshire may be most likely especially if we end up with RINomney.

I think Colorado, new mexico and nevada will be tough (GOP lost key races in nevada and colorado in 2020 but did do well in New Mexico).

Wisconsin will be tough too, Prosser recently barely won.

So getting a candidate who can win Virgina and one of new hampshire/iowa/wisconsin is what we need.

************************************************************
Dilbert San Diego’s post
Obama beat McCain by 365 to 173 in the electoral vote.

Obama has virtually no chance of carrying any of the McCain states, so the Republican nominee starts with a base of the 173. Add about 6 due to gains of electoral votes in these states due to reapportionment, and we’re up to 179 as a base for the Republican.

Add to the Republican column North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, which Obama carried but likely won’t this time. Add back Ohio, which Obama is in trouble in. Add all these, and the Republican is in striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed. Florida could well go Republican in 2012 also. If all of these happen, Obama can’t win re-election, just due to these states alone.

I don’t underestimate Obama and the Dems. and the MSM, but, he’s clearly vulnerable in 2012.


25 posted on 04/20/2011 12:31:35 PM PDT by MillardFillmore
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

I don’t think so.


26 posted on 04/20/2011 12:33:28 PM PDT by ZULU (Lindsey Graham is a nanometrical pustule of pusillanimous putrescent excrement)
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To: MillardFillmore
Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, plus one Nebraska vote puts it right at 270. I am more worried about North Carolina than I am Virginia.

Maine could go GOP, and so could Wisconsin and Minnesota if Pawlenty is the candidate. That would add another 24.

27 posted on 04/20/2011 12:43:30 PM PDT by Hoodat (Yet in all these things we are more than conquerors through Him who loved us. - (Rom 8:37))
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To: SeekAndFind
“Marist Poll: Say, Obama might have a big problem getting re-elected” Gee no foolin’? By the time Trump gets finished peeling OBAMA'S skin, we will be able to pick a name from the phone book. For those who think the election can be stolen, notice how few elections were stolen last November. There will be too many locations where the union scumbags will have to go to cheat and too few willing thugs that will risk arrest, plus too little dues money.
28 posted on 04/20/2011 12:48:00 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: Grunthor

The deeper polling number look even better. Soetoro is already trailing Mitt and Huck in Florida. If he doesn’t carry Florida, he basically has zero margin for error.


29 posted on 04/20/2011 12:49:39 PM PDT by cartervt2k (...and they cling to their abortions and their global warming religion)
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To: Forward the Light Brigade

LOL!


30 posted on 04/20/2011 1:01:24 PM PDT by HerrBlucher ("It is terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged." G.K. Chesterton)
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To: cruise_missile

No person who bombed Libya has ever been reelected president.


31 posted on 04/20/2011 1:12:54 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: All
Democrat voters will not abandon Obama.

Republicans need a viable leader as the nominee. Romney or Huckabee won't do it.

32 posted on 04/20/2011 1:17:15 PM PDT by newzjunkey
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To: newzjunkey

Perhaps Democrat voters will not abandon Obama, but I think the odds are increasing that Democrat elites may be searching for a way to throw him under the bus.

It is increasingly clear to them that this guy is a dangerous incompetent who risks taking what remains of their party completely over the cliff in the next election cycle. If they can figure a way to do it while still hanging on to the black vote look for an attempt at a palace coup here.


33 posted on 04/20/2011 1:53:08 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind
Obama might have a big problem getting re-elected?..... Thank God!......
34 posted on 04/20/2011 2:01:35 PM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: SeekAndFind

bm


35 posted on 04/20/2011 4:58:55 PM PDT by Para-Ord.45
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To: SeekAndFind

He’s only weak among the living. Surveys of ACORN and SEIU personnel suggest that Obama’s strength among dead likely voters has grown, possibly enough to offset losses among the living. I’ll be monitoring the polls on election day, and I hope thousands of other FR patriots will be doing the same. Keep the dead in the cemeteries, where they belong, especially on election day.


36 posted on 04/20/2011 7:15:01 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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