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Gay Marriage Opponents Now in ZOT
FiveThirtyEight ^ | 4-20-11 | Nate Silver

Posted on 04/21/2011 4:42:01 AM PDT by technonerd

A poll from CNN this week is the latest to show a majority of Americans in favor of same-sex marriage, with 51 percent saying that marriages between gay and lesbian couples “should be recognized by the law as valid” and 47 percent opposed.

This is the fourth credible poll in the past eight months to show an outright majority of Americans in favor of gay marriage....

As we noted last August, support for gay marriage seems to have been increasing at an accelerated pace over the past couple of years. Below is an update to the graph from last year’s article, which charts the trend from all available public polls on same-sex marriage going back to 1988.

...Both the California and Maine results were close, and because opinion is shifting so quickly on the issue, the outcomes would probably be different if they were voted on again today....

But Republican candidates, who have placed less emphasis on gay marriage in recent years, probably cannot expect their opposition to it to be a net electoral positive for them except in select circumstances. If support for gay marriage were to continue accelerating as fast as it has in the past two years, supporters would outnumber opponents roughly 56-40 in the general population by November 2012....

One way to read the trends of the past few years is that we have passed an inflection point wherein it is no longer politically advantageous for candidates to oppose same-sex marriage, which in turn softens opposition to it among the general public, creating a sort of feedback loop and accelerating the trend.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gaystapo; homosexualagenda; lies; marriage; moralabsolutes; peoplearestupid; perverts; poopypolls; propaganda; publicopinion; sheeple; sodomhusseinobama; trends; zot
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This is a rather ominious analysis from the social-conservative viewpoint. It's even more ominous when one considers the source -- Nate Silver correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election. It would be easy to fall back on denial if this were just some blowhard pundit, but coming from a number-cruncher with a solid track record it has to be taken seriously.

The question is: where to go from here? Ignoring the problem won't make it go away, and simply butting heads against the trend is unlikely to do any good. The best obtainable solution is probably to sidestep the problem by separating marriage and state.

1 posted on 04/21/2011 4:42:04 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: technonerd

( Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority ) .... OHH HOGWASH !!


2 posted on 04/21/2011 4:43:23 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: American Constitutionalist

It would be nice to think so, but (as I noted) we’re talking about an analysis from somebody with a very impressive track record.


3 posted on 04/21/2011 4:44:31 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: technonerd

Polls of “Yes” or “No” on gay “marriage” always show gays winning. Actual votes always show them losing. Nevertheless, your point is well made. The answer would seem be: keep winning elections.


4 posted on 04/21/2011 4:45:50 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: technonerd

It doesn’t surprise me.. When an empire/country is ready to fall, it usually starts with the culture.. We will be viewed like the Greeks and Romans. So Sad as it didn’t have to be this way.


5 posted on 04/21/2011 4:49:49 AM PDT by scbison
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To: technonerd

I don’t believe it. Polls have become a brain washing tool.


6 posted on 04/21/2011 4:50:53 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: technonerd
Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority

Is that right?

Then, why is the measure always defeated when We The People are allowed to vote on it? And, overwhelmingly so at that.

7 posted on 04/21/2011 4:58:49 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: Puppage

Defeated, yes. Overwhelmingly, no. And the margins keep shrinking — that’s the statistics Silver is tracking.


8 posted on 04/21/2011 5:02:00 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: technonerd

BULLSHIT.
I do not believe this poll for one second.
A majority of Americans still recognize homosexual acts as perversions,crimes and sin.


9 posted on 04/21/2011 5:02:09 AM PDT by SECURE AMERICA
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To: technonerd

I wonder how scientific this poll really is. Article doesn’t say.

Looks like a continuation of the “use” of polling to propagandize the population towards the goals of the Progressives, to me.


10 posted on 04/21/2011 5:03:36 AM PDT by Bluebird Singing
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To: technonerd

When does CNN do it’s poll on the 10 Commandments?


11 posted on 04/21/2011 5:06:12 AM PDT by ardara
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To: technonerd

4 polls in 8 months on this subject. Hmmm, they (the Progressives) are workin’ it!


12 posted on 04/21/2011 5:07:53 AM PDT by Bluebird Singing
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To: technonerd

Welcome to FR, by the way.

I would expect this to only get worse. It’s a strong delusion...and it’s worldwide.


13 posted on 04/21/2011 5:11:10 AM PDT by anniegetyourgun
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To: technonerd
Bwahahahahahaha. Who would be stupid enough to claim this now? Anybody remember Prop 8 in California, AKA the gay capitol of the USA? I believe it passed, making gay marriage illegal. The homos had to go to "their" judge to get it blocked because the pro-gay people couldn't even get a majority here. Hey, you homos, guess what, blacks and Mexicans don't like homo marriage either, and the Mexicans are taking over. You lose.
14 posted on 04/21/2011 5:15:34 AM PDT by fr_freak
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To: technonerd
Overwhelmingly, no.

Take a look at the outcome in MI, GA, and tell me they weren't overwhelmingly won. I do agree with you that the margins keep shrinking.

15 posted on 04/21/2011 5:35:34 AM PDT by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: technonerd

The progressives always have to have someone to champion. First it was labor unions, then civil rights, then women’s rights, now homosexuals. Once they’ve forced gay marriage down our throats, what next? Polygamists? Pedophiles? They will have to champion someone. It’s their nature.


16 posted on 04/21/2011 5:43:32 AM PDT by klgator
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To: American Constitutionalist

I don’t care if I am the last one standing on this issue. I will continue to oppose gay marriage to my last breath because I believe IT IS WRONG.


17 posted on 04/21/2011 5:53:26 AM PDT by Ronin ("A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves" -- Bertrand de Jouve)
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To: technonerd

The goal is to fight the obmination that is gay marriage no matter what. Shall we step aside because some number crunchy nerd runs a poll that makes it look like a bare majority in this country is all for sodomite marriage. Hell no! This is just another attempt in a long train of abuses brought upon this country. One day, the left in this country will get payback. All it takes is leadership.


18 posted on 04/21/2011 5:59:26 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: Ronin

“I don’t care if I am the last one standing on this issue. I will continue to oppose gay marriage to my last breath because I believe IT IS WRONG.”

Amen to that!!!!!


19 posted on 04/21/2011 6:07:20 AM PDT by Tomato lover (Prov 29:2 - look it up)
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To: ohioman

In Massachusetts our Govenor appointed a homosexual to the Superior court not because she is qualified but because she’s a lesbian.


20 posted on 04/21/2011 6:09:55 AM PDT by Colonial35
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To: Colonial35

That’s just awful and conjures images of the face-palm picture with the the guy saying - “Not this shit again”

The founders of this country would be appalled at what has become of Massachusetts.


21 posted on 04/21/2011 6:16:30 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: Puppage
I do agree with you that the margins keep shrinking.

That's why I suggested that social conservatives ought to focus on separating marriage and state while they still have enough leverage to do so. (On another topic, national security conservatives ought to focus on extricating the US from Barack's Bogus Libyan Adventure before it becomes a bigger mess than it is already. The logic is similar -- all it takes is getting past the irrational hang-up that going for the best achievable objective is some sort of "surrender".)

22 posted on 04/21/2011 6:31:05 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: technonerd

Consider the source. Since when can we trust a CNN poll?


23 posted on 04/21/2011 8:07:06 AM PDT by JimRed (Excising a cancer before it kills us waters the Tree of Liberty! TERM LIMITS, NOW AND FOREVER!)
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To: JimRed

There’s no single “source” — FiveThirtyEight aggregates a large collection of polls, with weightings based on each one’s track record.


24 posted on 04/21/2011 8:28:43 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: JimRed

Since when can we trust a CNN.
Indeed remember the reporter in a row boat in ankle deep water.


25 posted on 04/21/2011 8:30:17 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: technonerd

I think Jesus will be back before you can stop the stupid slide.


26 posted on 04/21/2011 8:34:10 AM PDT by bmwcyle (It is Satan's fault)
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To: bmwcyle
I think Jesus will be back before you can stop the stupid slide.

People come, and people go, but stupid goes on forever.

27 posted on 04/21/2011 9:25:13 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: technonerd

That option has little support on either side. Most have been conditioned to think that the gubberment defines marriage. Homosexualists and statists love that the state is involved in marriage, otherwise they would have no way to force something that can’t exist, like “gay marriage”, upon folks who find it contrary to their faith.

Freegards


28 posted on 04/21/2011 10:05:50 AM PDT by Ransomed
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To: Ransomed

Precisely my point.


29 posted on 04/21/2011 10:43:52 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: ohioman

Remember ? their foundation is a house of cards ready to come tumbling down.... it’s all built on sinking sand.


30 posted on 04/21/2011 11:02:17 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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To: Ronin

It brings light to one of the many reasons and motives why they ( Obama, Obama’s people, the MSM, liberals ) are fighting the birthers over the eligibility issue.


31 posted on 04/21/2011 11:08:58 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist (The fool has said in his heart, " there is no GOD " ..)
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32 posted on 04/21/2011 11:34:45 AM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: technonerd

“Precisely my point.”

It’s a good one. Just not too popular.

Freegards


33 posted on 04/21/2011 12:52:01 PM PDT by Ransomed
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To: technonerd

And yet, they continue to fight marriage amendment initiatives almost to the death. THAT ought to tell you what they really believe about their polls.


34 posted on 04/21/2011 1:45:25 PM PDT by fwdude (The world is sleeping in the dark that the Church just can't fight, 'cause it's asleep in the light.)
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To: Bluebird Singing
4 polls in 8 months on this subject. Hmmm, they (the Progressives) are workin’ it!

It's all a part of the agenda to wear down their opponents by demoralizing them.

They don't believe the real polls (elections) when they occur, but put all their faith in these unofficial "polls." It stinks to high heaven.

35 posted on 04/21/2011 1:49:39 PM PDT by fwdude (The world is sleeping in the dark that the Church just can't fight, 'cause it's asleep in the light.)
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To: technonerd
A poll from CNN...

You can stop reading right there.

36 posted on 04/21/2011 1:55:27 PM PDT by fwdude (The world is sleeping in the dark that the Church just can't fight, 'cause it's asleep in the light.)
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To: technonerd; P-Marlowe; wagglebee; little jeremiah; Jim Robinson
gay marriage...It would be easy to fall back on denial

So, you attacked birthers and now you attack those who support traditional marriage and tell us we're in denial.

You did read this part when you signed up for FR LAST WEEK, didn't you: Welcome to Free Republic! America's exclusive site for God, Family, Country, Life & Liberty constitutional conservative activists!

37 posted on 04/21/2011 6:46:12 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain & proud of it: Truly Supporting the Troops means praying for their Victory!)
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To: technonerd; 185JHP; AFA-Michigan; Abathar; Agitate; Albion Wilde; AliVeritas; Antoninus; ...
Homosexual Agenda Ping

Freepmail wagglebee to subscribe or unsubscribe from the homosexual agenda ping list.

Be sure to click the FreeRepublic homosexual agenda keyword search link for a list of all related articles. We don't ping you to all related articles so be sure to click the previous link to see the latest articles.

Add keywords homosexual agenda to flag FR articles to this ping list.

Here's how we go from here. ON THE OFFENSIVE! A few ideas:

Pull your kids out of public schools. Generally speaking the public school system is the "youth outreach" of the homo-nazi agenda.

Find out what the public schools in your areas are teaching about homosexuality - if the push the "Day of Silence" - allow homosexuals to be Homecoming Queen/King etc. Even if you don't have kids in school, WE are paying for them!

Then, fight against schools pushing the homo agenda - any way possible.

Get together with like minded people and do whatever you can to influence others - letters to the Ed, going to local meetings, etc.

Speak up! Wear buttons supporting traditional aka "REAL" marriage.

I'd say write you Congresscritter and I suppose it's a good idea but I'm rather demoralized about DC right now.

DO NOT SUPPORT any "gay" anything - which includes watching TV or movies that promoting homosexuality in a positive light, etc.

Teach your children why homosexual is wrong, unnatural, dangerous, unhealthy, creates suffering, etc.

Protect your children from predators - most homosexuals were molested at an early age by older homosexuals.

More than one family has been horrified when their son or daughter returns from a year or two in college and proclaims "I'm gay!" Institutions of "higher learning" are notorious pits of depravity and care should be taken when sending young people off to school. Don't think they can't be influenced badly.

Any more ideas welcome!

I would also add that polls in general, especially CNN or any other MSM outlet, is going to be skewed to the Left.

38 posted on 04/21/2011 6:57:43 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point. CSLewis)
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To: little jeremiah

agreed the only reason why they have advanced their agenda is because cowards don’t speak up and fight these perverts.


39 posted on 04/21/2011 7:11:28 PM PDT by manc (Shame on all who voted for the repeal of DADT, who supported it or never tried to stop it. Traitors)
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To: technonerd

what a load of crap, perverts are in the minority and when the people vote we always win


40 posted on 04/21/2011 7:12:46 PM PDT by manc (Shame on all who voted for the repeal of DADT, who supported it or never tried to stop it. Traitors)
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To: manc

Exactly. If the rest of us hadn’t been spineless coward neutered bunny rabbits, the homo-agenda would be in the closet where it belongs.


41 posted on 04/21/2011 7:21:55 PM PDT by little jeremiah (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point. CSLewis)
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To: technonerd
This is a rather ominious analysis from the social-conservative viewpoint.

Propaganda is a much simpler word troll.

Take a look at the Proposition 8 analysis -that is reality.

42 posted on 04/21/2011 7:34:18 PM PDT by DBeers (†)
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To: Ronin

Same here.


43 posted on 04/21/2011 9:13:24 PM PDT by liberalism is suicide (Communism,fascism-no matter how you slice socialism, its still baloney)
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To: technonerd; xzins; P-Marlowe; little jeremiah; DJ MacWoW; scripter; trisham; metmom; central_va; ...
This is a rather ominious analysis from the social-conservative viewpoint.

So, you joined FR last week to try to get us to drop social conservatism? Or is technonerd not your first FR name?

The question is: where to go from here?

For actual conservatives, the answer to that will ALWAYS be to continue to advance conservatism.

The best obtainable solution is probably to sidestep the problem by separating marriage and state.

Are you a retread, or did you simply join to promote sodomy? Marriage is a solemn union between ONE MAN and ONE WOMAN, anything else is a satanic abomination.

Perhaps you should read this:

If you support the homosexual agenda you are anti-Constitution and you'll get the zot from FR!


44 posted on 04/22/2011 5:30:52 AM PDT by wagglebee ("A political party cannot be all things to all people." -- Ronald Reagan, 3/1/75)
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To: technonerd

Possible “Non-Sequitur”.......


45 posted on 04/22/2011 5:36:06 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed, and I do not give a damn.)
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To: technonerd

Just shows why it’s important, as was said upthread, to keep winning elections.

It also shows what I feel is a basic disconnect, where the majority of the population seems willing to grant special rights to two percent of the population.


46 posted on 04/22/2011 5:38:55 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg ("It's hard to take the president seriously." - Jim DeMint)
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To: technonerd

We don’t need your advice.


47 posted on 04/22/2011 6:37:53 AM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: wagglebee
the answer to that will ALWAYS be to continue to advance conservatism

That's what I said -- advance conservatism; get the government out of its entanglements with everything under the sun.

48 posted on 04/22/2011 6:41:39 AM PDT by technonerd
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To: technonerd

This is just your agenda driven propaganda...

Nate Silver must be a little light in the loafers...


49 posted on 04/22/2011 6:49:50 AM PDT by Sir Francis Dashwood (Arjuna, why have you have dropped your bow???)
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To: little jeremiah

technonerd

Since Apr 14, 2011

Hmmm...


50 posted on 04/22/2011 6:51:15 AM PDT by Sir Francis Dashwood (Arjuna, why have you have dropped your bow???)
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