Skip to comments.2012 electoral map — as it stands
Posted on 04/21/2011 12:48:04 PM PDT by library user
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This is how 2012 looks right now to elections guru Larry Sabato:
Here is how the math works: Include the Leans states with the Likely and Safe, the numbers are as follows: 247 Democratic EVs, 180 Republican EVs, 111 Undecided. Just counting Likely and Safe, the numbers are as follows: 196 Democratic EVs, 170 Republican EVs, 172 Undecided.
Of the tossup states, I would give the Rs IN (11), FL (29) and certainly at least one of VA, NC or OH. Some Leans D in the Upper Midwest are vulnerable, too.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...
Didn’t he have the Dems losing 4-5 seats last election until 2 weeks prior?
Pray for America
Why in the world is Texas only a “likely”? Obama wouldn’t beat a ham sandwich in Texas.
I’m pleased to see Colorado in the toss-up category. Used to be we were reliably Republican, but there’s been a huge influx of illegals and liberals in the last 20 years, and now our governor, both senators, and all but two congressmen are Democrats.
This map would work if 2009-2010 never happened.
Sabato is dreaming.
Wonder how that map changes if Trump somehow manages to make it? And how much money that’ll cost the Democrats just to bring that new map back to this one...
Michigan lost a seat.
What are you saying? I’m just curious. That Dem loses will be much worse than the map shows?
Because we are slowly getting the blue spotted virus with each election cycle. Harris County (includes Houston) turned blue in the 2008 election.
This seems a little devoid of reality. Wisconsin (according to the last election) is no linger dem. Ohio (my home) is not a toss-up as we just elected a Republican Governor and state legistlature. Pennsylvania is a toss-up at best.
Sabato is an always wrong puke.
Sabato often skews left, and he certainly overestimates the jackasses with this map.
Indiana and Ohio are SOLID R’s for 2012. Likely Wisconsin, Michigan and PA, too.
NO WAY Obama can win without those.
Don’t forget about the Mescans
Actually, his predictions for last year's elections were almost totally on the money. The GOP did a little worse in the Senate than he had predicted, IIRC.
If Indiana goes Obama in 2012, I will eat my shoe. This map is worst case for GOP and best case for Dems as of now. FL is a deep Red again in 2012 if we have even a decent candidate.
Dems up 75 points? Whoever did this is definitely playing fast and lose with the numbers, no way in hell this is remotely accurate.
Hey sabato, youre a moron if you think Georgia is just likely R.We just wore the arse off a rat liar/lawyer for governor in this state.Your liberalism is showing larry.
the electoral shift has been favorable
180+IN+VA+NC+OH+NH+IN+FL = 270. That is friendlier than in the past
This does not include IA+NV+CO+NM in calculation
I'm not endorsing Trump by any stretch, but IMHO, it's conceivable that he could take both NY and FL.
Yeah, he’s been right on except Christie, Brown and Nov until right before the election when he had to retain his credibility. If he was honest he would show how bad Obozo’s real chances are but then how could his Party do any fundraising if he did that?
Pray for America
Also, 0bama not visiting tornado-stricken Virginia and North Carolina recently (instead deciding to fund-raise out west), which killed four times as many people who were killed in the BP drilling accident last year, I can imagine there won’t be much love for him when he campaigns in either of those states.
As a result, I would put both NC and VA in the Lean-R, not tossup.
Is this map considering electoral changes by state based on the last census?
Everybody in Gary will have to vote twice for Indiana to go donkey (so that means it’s not *totally* out of the question).
I’m saying this map is a joke. Sabato does not, apparently, take into consideration what just happened in 2010.
At the very least Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Virgina, and Indiana should lean GOP given the shellacking they took only 6 months ago. What changed since? Nothing but higher gas prices. Obama is polling in the high 30s and/or low 40s in all 5 states.
The Dems were also wiped out in Wisconsin, PA, and Michigan which he has Leaning Dem. These should be Tossup.
During the 2010 elections we took control of the Governor's mansion, both the State House and the State Senate. Sent Pat Toomey to Washington to counter the lib Casey, as well as took control of most of the House districts.
Pennsylvania leaning Dem? Not likely!
Is this the consideration before or after the Franken effect?
Here are some things in our favor:
1. States are passing voter id/integrity laws
2. TP movement will help GOTV and voter monitoring efforts
3. Several states are cutting public sector union CB “rights” which will reduce union dues and thugs available for Dim candidates including 0bama.
4. Hopefully some swing states will pass eligibility (birther) laws
5. MSM has lost it and the conservatives are using Facebook and the internet for news and opinion.
6. Net pickup of Republican governors in competitive states (OH, WI, MI).
I do hope that we can keep the pressure on 0bama’s past because this could cause the narcissistic to crack up if we find something really embarrassing in his record.
Pennsylvania leaning Dem? Not likely!
I’m in Ohio and there is no chance of an Obama victory unless he runs unopposed. I’m glad my Pennsylvania neighbors feel the same!
I agree, I just can’t see Michigan not going R next time around, unless they REALLY screw something up in Lansing in the next 1.5 yrs.
Ohio is very much a toss up. If SB5 is repealed by referendum this November, the GOP will have to really do some hard charging for 2012.
Wisconsin and Ohio outcomes will be influenced by the anti-union bills. Not everyone is happy about that. I’m a Buckeye too btw.
Austin, Dallas and Houston are either very Democrat, or likely Democrat.
San Antonio, if the Dems get any sort of traction on immigration amnesty.
Spot on. I support Kasich and SB5 100%. But Kasich needs to curb his mouth and think before he opens it some times. His approval rating is in the toilet, and I think most of it is from running his mouth at the wrong moment.
Wisconsin and Ohio outcomes will be influenced by the anti-union bills. Not everyone is happy about that. Im a Buckeye too btw.
The outcome of the wisconsin election just a few weeks ago with likely 100% union turnout was still a loss. Don’t you find that telling?
I can only speak for Louisiana with certainty, but in our case it does.
It gets tougher each year for the GOP, as the dems have a guaranteed lock on 220 EVs before returns even come in. The West coast, NY and the New England states are forever lost. In 2012, the Repubs should retake VA, NC, FL and IN. Right now, Gov. Kasich is barely more popular than Satan, so getting OH back is going to be a difficult task. That makes it 248 EVs... gonna have to take a couple away from the enemy. Maybe PA, MI and NH.
IF Kasich's number improve. They're deep in the crapper now.
One hopeful sign for MI is Detroit is emptying fast. But the question is... did the "residents" remain in the state?
“Why in the world is Texas only a likely? Obama wouldnt beat a ham sandwich in Texas.”
Doncha know? The Won declared the state winnable, so it must be. And not only that they are going to replace Biden with Ricardo Sanchez for Veep, because Sanchez is an e-General, Hispanic, and from Texas.
Don’t know, but we have a pretty strong S.O.S., with lots of support and poll watchers (I’m one of them)
WI, PA, and MI are not Republican states. PA especially is always a teaser, like NJ. Do not count on any of those three states.
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