Skip to comments.2012 electoral map — as it stands
Posted on 04/21/2011 12:48:04 PM PDT by library user
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This is how 2012 looks right now to elections guru Larry Sabato:
Here is how the math works: Include the Leans states with the Likely and Safe, the numbers are as follows: 247 Democratic EVs, 180 Republican EVs, 111 Undecided. Just counting Likely and Safe, the numbers are as follows: 196 Democratic EVs, 170 Republican EVs, 172 Undecided.
Of the tossup states, I would give the Rs IN (11), FL (29) and certainly at least one of VA, NC or OH. Some Leans D in the Upper Midwest are vulnerable, too.
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I can only speak for Louisiana with certainty, but in our case it does.
It gets tougher each year for the GOP, as the dems have a guaranteed lock on 220 EVs before returns even come in. The West coast, NY and the New England states are forever lost. In 2012, the Repubs should retake VA, NC, FL and IN. Right now, Gov. Kasich is barely more popular than Satan, so getting OH back is going to be a difficult task. That makes it 248 EVs... gonna have to take a couple away from the enemy. Maybe PA, MI and NH.
IF Kasich's number improve. They're deep in the crapper now.
One hopeful sign for MI is Detroit is emptying fast. But the question is... did the "residents" remain in the state?
“Why in the world is Texas only a likely? Obama wouldnt beat a ham sandwich in Texas.”
Doncha know? The Won declared the state winnable, so it must be. And not only that they are going to replace Biden with Ricardo Sanchez for Veep, because Sanchez is an e-General, Hispanic, and from Texas.
Don’t know, but we have a pretty strong S.O.S., with lots of support and poll watchers (I’m one of them)
WI, PA, and MI are not Republican states. PA especially is always a teaser, like NJ. Do not count on any of those three states.
That’s a VERY doable scenario. I’ll be pretty surprised if OH goes Obama again-—but then I was stunned last time.
I hate that my state is safe D.
Why make the choice so difficult for Obama! No way he could beat out a good Ham Sandwich! Especially with so many going hungry these days.
NJ will vote Republican in the current environment; Obama’s policies have not accomplished anything here, while we recently elected a well-established fiscal conservative to the governor’s mansion. In fact, I don’t think any “safe Democrat” states even exist; those states are the ones suffering the worst right now, and they’re not going to overlook it out of tradition.
Thats so bad it borders on dem propaganda. Does this rediculous report take nationwide pro-republican redistricting into account!
“Dems up 75 points? Whoever did this is definitely playing fast and lose with the numbers, no way in hell this is remotely accurate.”
I agree; in fact, if Obama is the candidate, there is no “safe Democrat” state. None of them are doing well right now, and they’re past trying to make history by electing our first Mulatto president - been there, hated that.
Obama could win in an electoral college landslide, like Wilson in 1912. Sarah Palin wins the Republican nomination and Trump runs as an independent. Popular vote breakdown: Obama 40%, Palin 30%, Trump 30%.
Here are some more things in our favor:
1. Expensive gas
2. Expiration of “Making Work Pay” tax credit
3. Nearly 20% unemployment
4. Obama is no longer “post-racial”; he’s very “racial”
5. Obama’s “youth vote” is still looking for that first job
6. NJ elected Governor Christie, the epitome of a “Taxed Enough Already” candidate if there ever was one.
7. The number of “solid Dem” voters out of work is climbing (public sector union members)
8. Obama still stages public appearances as though we’re in the “Roaring 20s” - the disconnect is apparent to all.
“Ill be pretty surprised if OH goes Obama again-but then I was stunned last time.”
Nothing has happened since then to indicate to Obama that it can ever happen again; even before the 2010 mid-terms, he was slapped down in MA and NJ, which he had won handily. The scales had ALREADY fallen from the voters’ eyes - IN MA & NJ!
There are now more registered Democrats in Texas than registered Republicans. If a significant portion of them vote in state wide elections, they can run the table. Fortunately for Perry, most of them, particularly in Harris County, chose to stay home.