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Getting Real About Obama's Chances, Part 1
RealClearPolitics ^ | April 21, 2011 | Sean Trende

Posted on 04/21/2011 10:54:32 PM PDT by neverdem

As of this writing, the Intrade futures markets give the Democrats a 62 percent chance of holding the White House in 2012, essentially unchanged from a peak of 63 percent a month ago. Washington conventional wisdom seems to agree. Politico's Roger Simon opined a few days ago that "I don't think Barack Obama will have a hard time defeating his Republican opponent in 2012, barring a financial meltdown or a major foreign crisis." David Brooks similarly asserted recently that "Obama is very likely to be re-elected."

This is the first of a two-part series to provide a more thorough examination of the presidential campaign that is about to unfold. It concludes that the results are far from foreordained. This does not mean that the president will necessarily lose, or that he is even favored to lose. Right now I believe his chances of success are roughly 50-50, with perhaps more upside on the losing end. But none of the arguments for why he should be considered a strong favorite withstand scrutiny.

Most of the pro-Obama analysis rests on six arguments. I will look at three today, and three in Part 2.

Argument 1: We don't usually turn out our presidents.

Pundits love historical factoids. Here is a superficially...


These early polls have little predictive power for next November. But they do offer a snapshot of today, and they aren't indicative of a dominant president. As I've noted before, this approval rating obscures a much deeper disapproval on policy matters, suggesting that his support is quite soft. We see this again in the Pew poll cited above. The president's approval rating is 47 percent, but his approval rating on the economy is 39 percent, on military action in Libya is 41 percent, and on the budget deficit is 33 percent...

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: barackobama; election2012; obama
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To: RonInNaples
I agree with you about the Republicans. Not sure they want to win.

LOL, but seriously Obama might of been the best thing to happen to the Republicans, Hell with the Democrats popularity we might be able to take over both houses and get a veto proof congress, then we really won't need the president would we. It could pass the Bills, Obama would veto them, and congress would over ride the veto. That would truly be the people have spoken, but if the elections were to goto the Republican like last time I can't really see Obama staying as President, I think Romney would even beat him.

Ok here is an historical question to ask you Historical buffs out there. Has there ever been a Political party to get enough seats in congress to over ride the President?

41 posted on 04/22/2011 2:43:03 AM PDT by ReformedBeckite ( post 1 of 3 I'm only allowing my self each day)
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To: Lazlo in PA

“Running a man afraid to challenge Obummer was another problem.”
You may have been unintentional in your choice of words but right now we only have women willing to take him on.

42 posted on 04/22/2011 3:19:10 AM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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Comment #43 Removed by Moderator

To: neverdem

Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford fit in there somewhere...following disaffection and crises.

44 posted on 04/22/2011 4:34:47 AM PDT by sodpoodle (Is it 2012 yet?)
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To: neverdem

I don’t hold back when asked...I hat the bum., or should I call him a low level socialist agitator as does West!

45 posted on 04/22/2011 4:40:53 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: RonInNaples
Democracy = mob rule and this is what our Founders warned us about.

They were so right. Democracy, even republican (intentional small r) democracy, can be deadly within a dumbed-down, short-sighted, shallow-thinking, welfare-state-conditioned society. The irony of our system bringing about our demise is exquisite.

46 posted on 04/22/2011 4:40:53 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

We had better not be looking for the Party of McCain for a serious candidate.

This mentality of uniting to defeat the Dems and holding our nose to vote for the next socialist assclown the GOP puts up will doom this Republic for sure.

47 posted on 04/22/2011 4:42:40 AM PDT by MikeSteelBe ( "Failure to speak out against evil is evil itself" - Dietrich Bonhoeffer)
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To: Michael.SF.

The people best-qualified to be president (and we still have many) don’t run because: (1) They don’t want to bear the slander and character assassination that is the rule in politics; and (2) They couldn’t get elected by today’s dumbed-down electorate.

48 posted on 04/22/2011 4:46:21 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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To: C210N
...once the American voters recognized a Marxist candidate...

The operative word, unfortunately, is "once." The electorate, in electing 0bummer, has already demonstrated their inability to recognize a Marxist. His present rosy chances of re-election further demonstrate it.

49 posted on 04/22/2011 4:51:07 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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To: cynwoody
If only they could just be convinced not to bother voting if they haven't checked out the candidates.

Unfortunately they are those who will be aided in filling out absentee ballots and bused to the polls by leftist activists.

50 posted on 04/22/2011 4:53:54 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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To: I still care

Of course we have been in a financial meltdown for some time; forestalled only by massive borrowing and printing of money which only serve to hastens a final collapse.

51 posted on 04/22/2011 4:59:31 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour
Well they are right regarding one thing, the current Repub field is a joke, a bunch of lightweights and Osama will have little difficulty defeating any of them.

We have to get serious about a candidate or Osama is guaranteed four more years.

52 posted on 04/22/2011 5:00:02 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: neverdem

There’s an email going around which is an article by Walter Williams explaining why Hussein absolutely WILL win the next election. It details the demographics of the loser-retarded-lazy citizenry that will make this happen. If I saved the email I’ll post the text later on.

53 posted on 04/22/2011 5:11:21 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam
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To: exnavy

As another exNavy man I agree, I think there is almost no chance of Obama being legitimately reelected but there is a great chance of his being fraudulently returned to office. We are in danger of having the kind of “elections” that are famous in places like Castro’s Cuba.

54 posted on 04/22/2011 5:48:38 AM PDT by RipSawyer (Trying to reason with a liberal is like teaching algebra to a tomcat.)
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To: neverdem; All

These must be the numbers the Liberal Media, Liberal RINO GOP, Liberal RINO GOP Media, are basing on to attack Birthers

These numbers will hold up if the Liberal RINO GOP and Liberal RINO GOP do not start taking the Obama Eligibility issue seriously

55 posted on 04/22/2011 6:52:07 AM PDT by UCFRoadWarrior (Karl Rove = Karl Marx)
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To: neverdem

Received this in an email by Dr. Walter Williams:

No Matter What
By Dr. Walter Williams

Can President Obama be defeated in 2012? No. He can’t. I am going on record as saying that President Barak Obama will win a second term. The media won’t tell you this because a good election campaign means hundreds of millions (or in Obama’s case billions) of dollars to them in advertising.
But the truth is, there simply are no conditions under which Barak Obama can be defeated in 2012.

The quality of the Republican candidate doesn’t matter. Obama gets reelected. Nine percent unemployment? No problem. Obama will win. Gas prices moving toward five dollars a gallon? He still wins. The economy soars or goes into the gutter. Obama wins. War in the Middle East ? He wins a second term. America’s role as the leading Superpower disappears? Hurrah for Barak Obama! The U.S. government rushes toward bankruptcy, the dollar continues to sink
on world markets and the price of daily goods and services soars due to inflation fueled by Obama’s extraordinary deficit spending? Obama wins handily.

You are crazy Williams. Don’t you understand how volatile politics can be when overall economic, government, and world conditions are declining? Sure I do.
And that’s why I know Obama will win. The American people are notoriously ignorant of economics. And economics is the key to why Obama should be defeated.
Even when Obama’s policies lead the nation to final ruin, the majority of the American people are going to believe the bait-and-switch tactics Obama and his supporters in the media will use to explain why it isn’t his fault. After all, things were much worse than understood when he took office.

Obama’s reelection is really a very, very simple math problem. Consider the following:

1) Blacks will vote for Obama blindly. Period. Doesn’t matter what he does. It’s a race thing. He’s one of us,

2) College educated women will vote for Obama. Though they will be offended by this, they swoon at his oratory. It’s really not more complex than that,

3) Liberals will vote for Obama. He is their great hope,

4) Democrats will vote for Obama. He is the leader of their party and his coat tails will carry them to victory nationwide,

5) Hispanics will vote for Obama. He is the path to citizenship for those who are illegal and Hispanic leaders recognize the political clout they carry in the Democratic Party,

6) Union members will vote overwhelmingly for Obama. He is their key to money and power in business, state and local politics.

7) Big Business will support Obama. They already have. He has almost $1 Billion dollars in his reelection purse gained largely from his connections with Big Business and is gaining more everyday. Big Business loves Obama because he gives them access to taxpayer money so long as they support his social and political agenda,

8) The media love him. They may attack the people who work for him, but they love him. After all, to not love him would be racist.

9) Most other minorities and special interest groups will vote for him. Oddly, the overwhelming majority of Jews and Muslims will support him because they won’t vote Republican. American Indians will support him. Obviously homosexuals tend to vote Democratic. And lastly,

10) Approximately half of independents will vote for Obama. And he doesn’t need anywhere near that number because he has all of the groups previously mentioned. The President will win an overwhelming victory in 2012. — Dr. Walter Williams

56 posted on 04/22/2011 7:16:00 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam
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To: MayflowerMadam
Well, if Williams is right (and I don't doubt too much that he is) then we get what we deserve.

And you know, I am almost, almost to the point where I am accepting of the pain and hardships to come just to know these people will finally get what they've worked so hard to bring to us all. I relish the thought of them eating tree bark.

57 posted on 04/22/2011 7:21:37 AM PDT by riri
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To: MayflowerMadam; wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; ...
Received this in an email by Dr. Walter Williams:

I usually enjoy Dr. Williams analyses, but I believe he's wrong here, comment# 56, for a number of reasons, all of which explain why the GOP got 60 % of the white vote last November, the first time in history. There's no reason to think that percentage will go down, and whites are 75 % of voters.

Here are some links to explain my reasoning:

Violence in another Mc Donalds almost kills customer More black on white violence on video!

The Country’s in the Very Best of Hands - It’s Li’l Barry, the musical, starring Barry Btfsplk Remember Li’l Abner by Al Capp?

Mark Steyn: The Human Right Not To Be “Offended”

Poll: Most Americans oppose raising debt limit

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

58 posted on 04/22/2011 10:23:52 AM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

Obama will win unless he is relentlessly, even brutally, for the next 18 months.

Does anyone here seriously believe Pawlenty, or Huckaphony, or Romney, or any other MSM-loved wannabe is up to the task?

59 posted on 04/22/2011 10:33:10 AM PDT by Jim Noble (The Constitution is overthrown. The Revolution is betrayed.)
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To: Jim Noble

Relentlessly, even brutally, ATTACKED

60 posted on 04/22/2011 10:52:50 AM PDT by Jim Noble (The Constitution is overthrown. The Revolution is betrayed.)
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