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Getting Real About Obama's Chances, Part 1
RealClearPolitics ^ | April 21, 2011 | Sean Trende

Posted on 04/21/2011 10:54:32 PM PDT by neverdem

As of this writing, the Intrade futures markets give the Democrats a 62 percent chance of holding the White House in 2012, essentially unchanged from a peak of 63 percent a month ago. Washington conventional wisdom seems to agree. Politico's Roger Simon opined a few days ago that "I don't think Barack Obama will have a hard time defeating his Republican opponent in 2012, barring a financial meltdown or a major foreign crisis." David Brooks similarly asserted recently that "Obama is very likely to be re-elected."

This is the first of a two-part series to provide a more thorough examination of the presidential campaign that is about to unfold. It concludes that the results are far from foreordained. This does not mean that the president will necessarily lose, or that he is even favored to lose. Right now I believe his chances of success are roughly 50-50, with perhaps more upside on the losing end. But none of the arguments for why he should be considered a strong favorite withstand scrutiny.

Most of the pro-Obama analysis rests on six arguments. I will look at three today, and three in Part 2.

Argument 1: We don't usually turn out our presidents.

Pundits love historical factoids. Here is a superficially...

--snip--

These early polls have little predictive power for next November. But they do offer a snapshot of today, and they aren't indicative of a dominant president. As I've noted before, this approval rating obscures a much deeper disapproval on policy matters, suggesting that his support is quite soft. We see this again in the Pew poll cited above. The president's approval rating is 47 percent, but his approval rating on the economy is 39 percent, on military action in Libya is 41 percent, and on the budget deficit is 33 percent...

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: barackobama; election2012; obama
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The last paragraph in the excerpt is more support for the notion that a lot of people are not being truthful when they answer to pollsters. They think that they will be judged as a racist if they say that they don't approve of Obama.
1 posted on 04/21/2011 10:54:38 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

The lefties are getting ready in advance to coverup the vote fraud that is about to take place.


2 posted on 04/21/2011 10:59:08 PM PDT by exnavy (May the Lord bless and keep our troops.)
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To: neverdem
this clown has no hope at all for re election. Our equal opportunity president has proven to be so hopelessly incompetent and inept that there is nothing that will change that between now and the next election. IN fact, it's a guarantee he will do much more damage by then.
3 posted on 04/21/2011 11:03:23 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: neverdem

Well they are right regarding one thing, the current Repub field is a joke, a bunch of lightweights and Osama will have little difficulty defeating any of them.

We have to get serious about a candidate or Osama is guaranteed four more years.


4 posted on 04/21/2011 11:06:35 PM PDT by The Magical Mischief Tour (With The Resistance...)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

Exactly, how does anybody get the majority of the dead voters and the majority of illegal immigrant voters to vote for the GOP/conservatives, from now on?


5 posted on 04/21/2011 11:10:52 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (If leftist legislation that's already in place really can't be ended by non-leftists, then what?)
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To: neverdem
"...barring a financial meltdown or a major foreign crisis."

If what we have now doesn't fit that bill, God help us all, because it is obvious to anyone with half a working braincell that things are definitely going to get worse in both areas.

6 posted on 04/21/2011 11:12:13 PM PDT by Ronin ("A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves" -- Bertrand de Jouve)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

I agree with you about the Republicans. Not sure they want to win. As for the O’s chances...he’s always going to have the black vote. His other strength is still on the college campuses because the lefty-loon professors pimp continuously for him and he gives speeches on college campuses quite often if you’ve noticed. Two sons are staunchly Conservative; one son is, and surrounded by friends who are, libtard. None of them plan to vote for anybody other than the big O.

Not feeling so optimistic here tonight. I can’t see him losing. Democracy = mob rule and this is what our Founders warned us about.


7 posted on 04/21/2011 11:13:10 PM PDT by RonInNaples
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To: neverdem

I have been arguing the racist thing with the polls for a long time now. People don’t want to look bad to pollsters. Also these specific questions on certain areas of Obummers competence have been in the toilet for a long time. There are signs every day to cracks in even his base. The WH knows this. Just watch where they are campaigning. Collages, Facebook, Rev Al’s revival. Shouldn’t he be trying to regain the independents who overwhelmingly voted against him in the midterms?

The other thing that no one is talking about is $6 gas. What President has ever allowed such a spike and been reelected? If anyone remembers, a lot of Nixons support, before his resignation, disappeared over the winter because of the fuel crisis. $6 will cripple this shabby economy.


8 posted on 04/21/2011 11:14:01 PM PDT by Lazlo in PA (`)
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To: neverdem

“Politico’s Roger Simon opined a few days ago that “I don’t think Barack Obama will have a hard time defeating his Republican opponent in 2012, barring a financial meltdown or a major foreign crisis.”

Yeah, the country’s financially strong and the world is at peace. Hope and change has been a total success. Barry can hit the golf course now, nothing to worry about. /S!


9 posted on 04/21/2011 11:16:10 PM PDT by drierice
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To: neverdem
I have yet to see a candidate from our side that is capable of beating Obama, which is a sad reflection on our candidates, as well as upon the intellect of the below average voter, of which there are far too many.
10 posted on 04/21/2011 11:16:30 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (Going to Charlotte for the barbecue is like going to Minneapolis for the gumbo - John Reed)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

So who do you suggest who wouldn’t be a joke in the Republican field?


11 posted on 04/21/2011 11:18:44 PM PDT by Aria ( "If we ever forget that we're one nation under God, then we will be a nation gone under.")
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To: neverdem

Author talks about 50-50 chances. However, from a marxism perspective, once the American voters recognized a marxist candidate, they turned him out 100% - Carter at 4 years, and McGovern at 0 years. The only question is that recognition; I think its VERY strong. In the present case, we’re about to lose the republic - he is the most marxist in American History. Its basically a race now - can the presidential wrecking ball destroy things enough in the next year plus so it doesn’t matter or not who or what wins.


12 posted on 04/21/2011 11:24:43 PM PDT by C210N (0bama, Making the US safe for Global Marxism)
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To: Lazlo in PA
I have been arguing the racist thing with the polls for a long time now. People don’t want to look bad to pollsters.

Right. Like in 2008?

The Bradley effect is history. Dead. Gone. Irrelevant.

It's now just the moron effect. If only they could just be convinced not to bother voting if they haven't checked out the candidates. If they didn't learn in 2008, there is no hope for 2012.

13 posted on 04/21/2011 11:26:29 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: neverdem

I don’t think Obama is unbeatable, but neither would I write him off yet. 2012 will be a close race. Maybe not as close as 2000, but the final results will be a lot more like 2000 than 1980, IMHO.


14 posted on 04/21/2011 11:27:32 PM PDT by DemforBush (Of all the Thompson gunners, Roland was the best.)
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To: Aria

Mitch Daniels


15 posted on 04/21/2011 11:29:46 PM PDT by The Magical Mischief Tour (With The Resistance...)
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To: RonInNaples
His other strength is still on the college campuses because the lefty-loon professors pimp continuously for him and he gives speeches on college campuses quite often if you’ve noticed.

That there is a big weakness. He overwhelmingly lost the independent vote in the midterms and his solution is to mine vote from the base? What effect did the collage vote have last election? Not much more than the previous election. It was the independents and fed up anti Bush Republicans who voted for him. Running a man afraid to challenge Obummer was another problem. Shouldn't he devote time to bringing these lost voters back? He isn't because the WH knows they lost the base. Two polls posted here this week showed Obummer losing blacks and latinos. He did not deliver them all the promises he made.

I don't understand all the doom and gloom over beating this nit wit after the colossal defeat he had in the midterms. He has a record for the first time in his life. He cannot point to one thing he has improved and in most cases they have gotten worse. Just look at how much damage Trump is doing hitting him on a few key things. No need for gloom.

16 posted on 04/21/2011 11:31:12 PM PDT by Lazlo in PA (`)
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To: avacado; Billthedrill

Here are more reasons to be optimistic about dumping Obama in 2012. I agree with John Fund of the Wall Street Journal. I think it will be ABO in that November, Anybody But Obama.

The author, Sean Trende, has been one of the better analysts, IMHO. He’s not confined to a 750 word OpEd, so he can dig into the facts behind the numbers.


17 posted on 04/21/2011 11:32:35 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: cynwoody
Whats your point. It happens. From the piece you highlighted.

Analyses of recent elections suggest that there may be some evidence of a diminution in the 'Bradley Effect'. However at this stage such evidence is too limited to confirm a trend.

You are telling me that PC people don't do this?

18 posted on 04/21/2011 11:35:30 PM PDT by Lazlo in PA (`)
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To: paul51

this clown has no hope at all for re election. Our equal opportunity president has proven to be so hopelessly incompetent and inept that there is nothing that will change that between now and the next election. IN fact, it’s a guarantee he will do much more damage by then

Don’t kid yourself....So many of the voters in this country are pure idiots.


19 posted on 04/21/2011 11:37:24 PM PDT by alaskanfan
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To: Lazlo in PA
You are telling me that PC people don't do this?

It took a hell of a lot more than PC people to elect Comrade Barack Hussein Osama-Bama in 2008. The 2008 election marked the demise of the Bradley Effect. And for all the wrong reasons.

20 posted on 04/21/2011 11:39:11 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

Doesn’t he have a liberal streak?

Plus, and I know this shouldn’t be a factor but it is, he is short and the short guy never wins.


21 posted on 04/21/2011 11:41:13 PM PDT by Aria ( "If we ever forget that we're one nation under God, then we will be a nation gone under.")
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To: Aria

At this point; I wish we could get West to run.


22 posted on 04/21/2011 11:47:24 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: neverdem

I agree with John Fund of the Wall Street Journal. I think it will be ABO in that November, Anybody But Obama. “ ======

The numbers who drug him over the line in ‘08 are shrinking daily. It wasn’t the blacks who elected Obama but the Independents and moderate Republicans who were ready for generational change. Well, they got it. How’s all that hope changey stuff workin’ for ya? :)


23 posted on 04/21/2011 11:48:28 PM PDT by RitaOK
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To: neverdem

BTW, Hillpac won’t be voting Obama either. They will have a long memory. Especially in those states where it was close between Hil and Barry.


24 posted on 04/21/2011 11:51:35 PM PDT by RitaOK
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To: cynwoody

Would you be so kind to repeat how to fix a text filled with relative hyperlinks so that they are converted to absolute hyperlinks?

I should have saved it then. I’ll try to save it now.


25 posted on 04/22/2011 12:10:33 AM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem
". Of the three who were turned out after their party had held the White House for only four years, only one -- Jimmy Carter -- hails from the 20th century. "

Silly me- here I was thinking that George H. W. Bush was a Twentieth century President that got "turned out" after one term.

26 posted on 04/22/2011 12:11:02 AM PDT by matthew fuller (Bolton, Palin, Bachmann, Cain or Trump 2012!)
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To: freekitty

Yes, West is something! I hope I get the chance to vote for him one day.


27 posted on 04/22/2011 12:11:13 AM PDT by Aria ( "If we ever forget that we're one nation under God, then we will be a nation gone under.")
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To: alaskanfan

Yes, but even pure idiots hate $4/gallon gasoline and being unemployed or employed at menial labor with no health insurance.


28 posted on 04/22/2011 12:17:39 AM PDT by Retief
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To: matthew fuller
"Of the three who were turned out after their party had held the White House for only four years, only one -- Jimmy Carter -- hails from the 20th century."

Silly me- here I was thinking that George H. W. Bush was a Twentieth century President that got "turned out" after one term.

George H. W. Bush was considered to be Reagan's third term. The GOP controlled the White House from Reagan's inaurguratiion until Clinton's in January 93.

29 posted on 04/22/2011 12:36:43 AM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

You’re right, I was thinking that GHWB followed Carter, not Reagan. My bad.


30 posted on 04/22/2011 12:47:00 AM PDT by matthew fuller (Bolton, Palin, Bachmann, Cain or Trump 2012!)
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To: neverdem

“Barring a financial meltdown”

The problem with that is, most people will consider our current unemployment problem, with food and energy inflation, along with a double dip depressive housing market and $5 a gallon gas (who knows where it will be in 2012) a personal financial meltdown.

If Obama can fix that he’ll probably win. But I don’t think he can, at least, not doing what he’s doing now.


31 posted on 04/22/2011 12:49:51 AM PDT by I still care (I miss my friends, bagels, and the NYC skyline - but not the taxes. I love the South.)
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To: paul51

“this clown has no hope at all for re election”

Not a good attitude to have, especially given that if the Repubs don’t find a leader with “huevos” soon (other than the Donald) than the ‘Rat Media machine will steamroll over another Dole (or Romney)-like candidate.

Politics is all about charisma...first and foremost to the base. I see no current top 5 or even top 10 Repub candidate who really excites the base (and keeps the RINOS...and could get Reagan-democrats too), which means that the 62% figure is probably about right.

O will again get 97% of the black vote (12% of the population) and will likely get the Latino vote too (another 12% or so) which means that only 35% or 40% or so of the white vote is needed to win...and about the only O does very well in, is campaigning.

17 months away though fortunately, and a lot of things could change very quickly during that time....still this is no time to be complacent or over-confident—due to us knowing O’s an empty suit. Republicans have not been named (by Conservatives) “the stupid party” for nothing....but lets hope the leadership wises up.


32 posted on 04/22/2011 12:59:57 AM PDT by AnalogReigns
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To: paul51

Given his record, IF O was Caucasian, he’d surely be another Carter/1 termer (and would of never gotten there in the first place, really)...but racial politics makes it much more complex.


33 posted on 04/22/2011 1:06:16 AM PDT by AnalogReigns
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To: alaskanfan
Don’t kid yourself....So many of the voters in this country are pure idiots.

That's the problem. Not idiots, exactly, but holders of idiotic opinions due to lack of interest and reliance on legacy media.

"Tax the rich" still polls very well. I'm worried.

34 posted on 04/22/2011 1:18:07 AM PDT by SupplySider
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To: AnalogReigns

I agree about race. If Obama was not African American, he’d be Gary Hart or one of the many other Democrat “new ideas” losers.


35 posted on 04/22/2011 1:22:20 AM PDT by SupplySider
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To: Lazlo in PA

Lazlo I think the Obama re-election is far from a given, the vast turn against them in the 2010 midterms has festered and grown and BO’s response has been a disaster. As I sample the responses to any BO related articles in all MSM publications the vast majority are highly and vocally anti-Obama sounding a lot like FR. IMO the ABO effect will be high and I still think that there may be a primary opponent, possibly Hillary.


36 posted on 04/22/2011 1:47:03 AM PDT by iopscusa (El Vaquero. (SC Lowcountry Cowboy))
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

LOL


37 posted on 04/22/2011 1:49:59 AM PDT by Chunga (I can see 2012 from my house. Go, Sarah, GO!! - Jim Robinson)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

Well they are right regarding one thing, the current Repub field is a joke, a bunch of lightweights and Osama will have little difficulty defeating any of them.

We have to get serious about a candidate or Osama is guaranteed four more years.


Wake up. He has no chance. Why the heck do you think they are talking about it?


38 posted on 04/22/2011 1:54:33 AM PDT by BornToBeAmerican (Kindness will conquer evil)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

Mitch Daniels HA get real! It is going to take a
dynamic charismatic candidate with clear conservative principles with a high likeability factor, a no nonsense warior!

Allen West comes to mind


39 posted on 04/22/2011 2:03:42 AM PDT by timetostand (Ya say ya wanna revolution -- OK!)
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To: freekitty

I agree. Give us West.


40 posted on 04/22/2011 2:31:31 AM PDT by Explorer89 (And now, let the wild rumpus start!!)
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To: RonInNaples
I agree with you about the Republicans. Not sure they want to win.

LOL, but seriously Obama might of been the best thing to happen to the Republicans, Hell with the Democrats popularity we might be able to take over both houses and get a veto proof congress, then we really won't need the president would we. It could pass the Bills, Obama would veto them, and congress would over ride the veto. That would truly be the people have spoken, but if the elections were to goto the Republican like last time I can't really see Obama staying as President, I think Romney would even beat him.

Ok here is an historical question to ask you Historical buffs out there. Has there ever been a Political party to get enough seats in congress to over ride the President?

41 posted on 04/22/2011 2:43:03 AM PDT by ReformedBeckite ( post 1 of 3 I'm only allowing my self each day)
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To: Lazlo in PA

“Running a man afraid to challenge Obummer was another problem.”
You may have been unintentional in your choice of words but right now we only have women willing to take him on.


42 posted on 04/22/2011 3:19:10 AM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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Comment #43 Removed by Moderator

To: neverdem

Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford fit in there somewhere...following disaffection and crises.


44 posted on 04/22/2011 4:34:47 AM PDT by sodpoodle (Is it 2012 yet?)
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To: neverdem

I don’t hold back when asked...I hat the bum., or should I call him a low level socialist agitator as does West!


45 posted on 04/22/2011 4:40:53 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: RonInNaples
Democracy = mob rule and this is what our Founders warned us about.

They were so right. Democracy, even republican (intentional small r) democracy, can be deadly within a dumbed-down, short-sighted, shallow-thinking, welfare-state-conditioned society. The irony of our system bringing about our demise is exquisite.

46 posted on 04/22/2011 4:40:53 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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To: The Magical Mischief Tour

We had better not be looking for the Party of McCain for a serious candidate.

This mentality of uniting to defeat the Dems and holding our nose to vote for the next socialist assclown the GOP puts up will doom this Republic for sure.


47 posted on 04/22/2011 4:42:40 AM PDT by MikeSteelBe ( "Failure to speak out against evil is evil itself" - Dietrich Bonhoeffer)
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To: Michael.SF.

The people best-qualified to be president (and we still have many) don’t run because: (1) They don’t want to bear the slander and character assassination that is the rule in politics; and (2) They couldn’t get elected by today’s dumbed-down electorate.


48 posted on 04/22/2011 4:46:21 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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To: C210N
...once the American voters recognized a Marxist candidate...

The operative word, unfortunately, is "once." The electorate, in electing 0bummer, has already demonstrated their inability to recognize a Marxist. His present rosy chances of re-election further demonstrate it.

49 posted on 04/22/2011 4:51:07 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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To: cynwoody
If only they could just be convinced not to bother voting if they haven't checked out the candidates.

Unfortunately they are those who will be aided in filling out absentee ballots and bused to the polls by leftist activists.

50 posted on 04/22/2011 4:53:54 AM PDT by luvbach1 (Stop Barry now. He can't help himself.)
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