Skip to comments.Getting Real About Obama's Chances, Part 1
Posted on 04/21/2011 10:54:32 PM PDT by neverdem
As of this writing, the Intrade futures markets give the Democrats a 62 percent chance of holding the White House in 2012, essentially unchanged from a peak of 63 percent a month ago. Washington conventional wisdom seems to agree. Politico's Roger Simon opined a few days ago that "I don't think Barack Obama will have a hard time defeating his Republican opponent in 2012, barring a financial meltdown or a major foreign crisis." David Brooks similarly asserted recently that "Obama is very likely to be re-elected."
This is the first of a two-part series to provide a more thorough examination of the presidential campaign that is about to unfold. It concludes that the results are far from foreordained. This does not mean that the president will necessarily lose, or that he is even favored to lose. Right now I believe his chances of success are roughly 50-50, with perhaps more upside on the losing end. But none of the arguments for why he should be considered a strong favorite withstand scrutiny.
Most of the pro-Obama analysis rests on six arguments. I will look at three today, and three in Part 2.
Argument 1: We don't usually turn out our presidents.
Pundits love historical factoids. Here is a superficially...
These early polls have little predictive power for next November. But they do offer a snapshot of today, and they aren't indicative of a dominant president. As I've noted before, this approval rating obscures a much deeper disapproval on policy matters, suggesting that his support is quite soft. We see this again in the Pew poll cited above. The president's approval rating is 47 percent, but his approval rating on the economy is 39 percent, on military action in Libya is 41 percent, and on the budget deficit is 33 percent...
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
The lefties are getting ready in advance to coverup the vote fraud that is about to take place.
Well they are right regarding one thing, the current Repub field is a joke, a bunch of lightweights and Osama will have little difficulty defeating any of them.
We have to get serious about a candidate or Osama is guaranteed four more years.
Exactly, how does anybody get the majority of the dead voters and the majority of illegal immigrant voters to vote for the GOP/conservatives, from now on?
If what we have now doesn't fit that bill, God help us all, because it is obvious to anyone with half a working braincell that things are definitely going to get worse in both areas.
I agree with you about the Republicans. Not sure they want to win. As for the O’s chances...he’s always going to have the black vote. His other strength is still on the college campuses because the lefty-loon professors pimp continuously for him and he gives speeches on college campuses quite often if you’ve noticed. Two sons are staunchly Conservative; one son is, and surrounded by friends who are, libtard. None of them plan to vote for anybody other than the big O.
Not feeling so optimistic here tonight. I can’t see him losing. Democracy = mob rule and this is what our Founders warned us about.
I have been arguing the racist thing with the polls for a long time now. People don’t want to look bad to pollsters. Also these specific questions on certain areas of Obummers competence have been in the toilet for a long time. There are signs every day to cracks in even his base. The WH knows this. Just watch where they are campaigning. Collages, Facebook, Rev Al’s revival. Shouldn’t he be trying to regain the independents who overwhelmingly voted against him in the midterms?
The other thing that no one is talking about is $6 gas. What President has ever allowed such a spike and been reelected? If anyone remembers, a lot of Nixons support, before his resignation, disappeared over the winter because of the fuel crisis. $6 will cripple this shabby economy.
“Politico’s Roger Simon opined a few days ago that “I don’t think Barack Obama will have a hard time defeating his Republican opponent in 2012, barring a financial meltdown or a major foreign crisis.”
Yeah, the country’s financially strong and the world is at peace. Hope and change has been a total success. Barry can hit the golf course now, nothing to worry about. /S!
So who do you suggest who wouldn’t be a joke in the Republican field?
Author talks about 50-50 chances. However, from a marxism perspective, once the American voters recognized a marxist candidate, they turned him out 100% - Carter at 4 years, and McGovern at 0 years. The only question is that recognition; I think its VERY strong. In the present case, we’re about to lose the republic - he is the most marxist in American History. Its basically a race now - can the presidential wrecking ball destroy things enough in the next year plus so it doesn’t matter or not who or what wins.
Right. Like in 2008?
The Bradley effect is history. Dead. Gone. Irrelevant.
It's now just the moron effect. If only they could just be convinced not to bother voting if they haven't checked out the candidates. If they didn't learn in 2008, there is no hope for 2012.
I don’t think Obama is unbeatable, but neither would I write him off yet. 2012 will be a close race. Maybe not as close as 2000, but the final results will be a lot more like 2000 than 1980, IMHO.
That there is a big weakness. He overwhelmingly lost the independent vote in the midterms and his solution is to mine vote from the base? What effect did the collage vote have last election? Not much more than the previous election. It was the independents and fed up anti Bush Republicans who voted for him. Running a man afraid to challenge Obummer was another problem. Shouldn't he devote time to bringing these lost voters back? He isn't because the WH knows they lost the base. Two polls posted here this week showed Obummer losing blacks and latinos. He did not deliver them all the promises he made.
I don't understand all the doom and gloom over beating this nit wit after the colossal defeat he had in the midterms. He has a record for the first time in his life. He cannot point to one thing he has improved and in most cases they have gotten worse. Just look at how much damage Trump is doing hitting him on a few key things. No need for gloom.
Here are more reasons to be optimistic about dumping Obama in 2012. I agree with John Fund of the Wall Street Journal. I think it will be ABO in that November, Anybody But Obama.
The author, Sean Trende, has been one of the better analysts, IMHO. He’s not confined to a 750 word OpEd, so he can dig into the facts behind the numbers.
Analyses of recent elections suggest that there may be some evidence of a diminution in the 'Bradley Effect'. However at this stage such evidence is too limited to confirm a trend.
You are telling me that PC people don't do this?
this clown has no hope at all for re election. Our equal opportunity president has proven to be so hopelessly incompetent and inept that there is nothing that will change that between now and the next election. IN fact, it’s a guarantee he will do much more damage by then
Don’t kid yourself....So many of the voters in this country are pure idiots.
It took a hell of a lot more than
PC people to elect Comrade Barack Hussein Osama-Bama in 2008. The 2008 election marked the demise of the Bradley Effect. And for all the wrong reasons.