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The Map: The Crystal Ballís First 2011 Take on 2012ís Electoral College
U. of VA Center for Politics: Sabato's Crystal Ball ^ | 04/22/2011 | Larry Sabato

Posted on 04/22/2011 6:20:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

The Map

The Crystal Ball’s First 2011 Take on 2012’s Electoral College

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics April 21st, 2011

With 18 months to go until November 2012, there is exactly one use for a current projection of the 2012 Electoral College results. This is merely a baseline from which we can judge more reliable projections made closer to the election. Where did we start–before we knew the identity of the Republican nominee for president, the state of the economy in fall 2012 and many other critical facts?

And so, with that enormous caveat in mind, here is THE MAP.

If you INCLUDE the “Leans” states with the “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows:

If you DO NOT INCLUDE the “Leans” states, i.e., just counting “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows:

With 270 needed for election, our Democratic readers will prefer the first tally, and our Republican readers the second. Indulge yourselves! As heated as the campaign will get, let’s remember to have fun along the way.




TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: crystalball; electoralcollege; map

1 posted on 04/22/2011 6:20:44 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Sabato is an idiot!

I have absolutely no respect for the man or his left leaning politics!


2 posted on 04/22/2011 6:25:40 AM PDT by freejohn
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To: SeekAndFind

Sabato has apparently been asleep during the past year or so.

It’s as if the 2010 election never happened.


3 posted on 04/22/2011 6:28:27 AM PDT by nhwingut (Palin '12... Accept No Other)
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To: freejohn
I agree! The fact that he is correct most of the time is infuriating!
4 posted on 04/22/2011 6:28:57 AM PDT by SubMareener
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To: SeekAndFind
In some of the earliest GOP 'straw' polls, Other was getting 80%.
5 posted on 04/22/2011 6:29:46 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: SubMareener

Yeah, at this point last election he had the Dems holding the House. What Tea Party?

Pray for America


6 posted on 04/22/2011 6:32:08 AM PDT by bray (Hey Oboehner stop crying and start fighting?)
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To: SeekAndFind

I hope Obama thinks Texas and Florida are in play and ends up sinking a ton of money and resources there.


7 posted on 04/22/2011 6:32:56 AM PDT by AU72
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To: SeekAndFind

With gasoline headed for $6 a gallon, and food prices looking like gold futures, and the Middle East looking like Southeast Asia circa 1960, these numbers and all their blather mean nothing.................


8 posted on 04/22/2011 6:32:56 AM PDT by Red Badger (Mitt Romney: The Harold Stassen of the 21st century........)
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To: SubMareener
The fact that he is correct most of the time is infuriating!

He was predicting the Dems holding onto the House less than two months before the election(trying to play the part of propagandist). And only switched his prediction as it got closer... so he wouldn't look foolish. They all do this.
9 posted on 04/22/2011 6:33:49 AM PDT by nhwingut (Palin '12... Accept No Other)
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To: nhwingut

I see it the same way every election cycle. Everything will go back to 2000. Which means, Ohio, Florida. The biggest change will be Wisconsin.

Votes will still be fraudulent in Philly and St. Louis.


10 posted on 04/22/2011 6:41:04 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (Who is John Galt?)
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To: SeekAndFind

The author ignores recent polling data that puts Florida as a GOP likely.

He also ignores the recent voting results in Wisconsin that would make it a toss-up state.

I believe PA and OH are also leaning GOP

And $4 gas doesn’t help Obama either.


11 posted on 04/22/2011 6:41:26 AM PDT by kidd
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To: SeekAndFind

While I don’t agree with this map. One thing is for sure, every presidential election will be down to the wire like in 2000, simply because 40% of the population of this country are living off of the government.


12 posted on 04/22/2011 6:44:04 AM PDT by BobinIL
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To: kidd

PA will never go for the GOP, they can manufacture votes in Philly till they get the numbers they need. WI is a tossup now.IN and FL are likely GOP and OH will be the state that makes or breaks the election.


13 posted on 04/22/2011 6:48:39 AM PDT by BobinIL
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To: kidd

He also ignores ( in his own state) how “far right” VA went in the last gov race, including our beloved AG, Cuchinelli, who is putting the screws to Obummercare...
As others have stated, Sabato is playing to the lefties until the writing is on the wall...
and he gets PAID by the VA tax payers to do it...


14 posted on 04/22/2011 6:51:58 AM PDT by matginzac
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To: SeekAndFind
The story of the 2012 election is going to be how blacks stayed home in droves. Obama has become an embarrassment to them; they won't vote for a Republican but there will not be the enthusiasm there was in '08, IMHO. Leftist media will have yet another opportunity to employ the word "unexpected".

Sabato's work here is predicated largely on the 2008 turnout, and if I'm right it is completely nullified by lack of black turnout alone, not to mention the tea party factor.

15 posted on 04/22/2011 6:53:13 AM PDT by wayoverontheright (The Democratic Party is trying to end "the private sector as we know it".)
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To: AU72
He's be counting on two factions in Florida and Texas:

1. Hispanics
2. Fraud

16 posted on 04/22/2011 7:01:44 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Psalm 109:8 Let his days be few and let another take his office. - Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin)
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To: freejohn

Sabato lives in a time warp. He has no clue what is about to happen in 2012.


17 posted on 04/22/2011 7:52:33 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: kidd; SortaBichy
And $4 gas doesn’t help Obama either.

Yep - that's the elephant in the room; the media can ignore it, but on our weekly trips to the gas station, I hear a whole lotta "FUBO" coming from my fellow filler-uppers.

18 posted on 04/22/2011 7:55:41 AM PDT by ErnBatavia (It's not the Obama Administration....it's the "Obama Regime".)
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To: ErnBatavia

Would be better if anti-Obama sticker were next to every gas pump.


19 posted on 04/22/2011 7:58:14 AM PDT by Minus_The_Bear
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To: SeekAndFind

NH & ME will be in the R column!! ME is starting to look at the RATS as PESTS!! NH is going to get back to their LIBERTARIAN THINKING. CT, MA, RI and \/T will be in the MARXIST COLUMN.


20 posted on 04/22/2011 8:08:08 AM PDT by ExCTCitizen (Wanted a keyboard with a working '\/' key!!)
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To: ExCTCitizen

By 2012, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote, everywhere would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Elections wouldn’t be about winning states. Every vote, everywhere would be counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.

In the 2012 election, pundits and campaign operatives already agree that, at most, only 14 states and their voters will matter under the current winner-take-all laws (i.e., awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state) used by 48 of the 50 states. Candidates will not care about at least 72% of the voters- voters-in 19 of the 22 lowest population and medium-small states, and big states like CA, GA, NY, and TX. 2012 campaigning would be even more obscenely exclusive than 2008 and 2004. Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or care about the voter concerns in the dozens of states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. Policies important to the citizens of ‘flyover’ states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to ‘battleground’ states when it comes to governing.

Since World War II, a shift of a handful of votes in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in 4 of the 13 presidential elections. Near misses are now frequently common. There have been 6 consecutive non-landslide presidential elections. 537 popular votes won Florida and the White House for Bush in 2000 despite Gore’s lead of 537,179 popular votes nationwide. A shift of 60,000 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have defeated President Bush despite his nationwide lead of over 3 Million votes.

The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes–enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president.

In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support is strong among Republican voters, Democratic voters, and independent voters, as well as every demographic group surveyed in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls in closely divided battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%,, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%.

The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA, RI, VT, and WA. The bill has been enacted by DC, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA,VT, and WA. These 8 jurisdictions possess 77 electoral votes — 29% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

http://www.NationalPopularVote.com


21 posted on 04/22/2011 12:00:17 PM PDT by mvymvy
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To: ErnBatavia

When Bush was prez, the media pounded on him for gas prices 24/7.


22 posted on 04/24/2011 12:38:45 AM PDT by SortaBichy
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