Skip to comments.The Map: The Crystal Ballís First 2011 Take on 2012ís Electoral College
Posted on 04/22/2011 6:20:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
April 21st, 2011,
With 18 months to go until November 2012, there is exactly one use for a current projection of the 2012 Electoral College results. This is merely a baseline from which we can judge more reliable projections made closer to the election. Where did we start–before we knew the identity of the Republican nominee for president, the state of the economy in fall 2012 and many other critical facts?
And so, with that enormous caveat in mind, here is THE MAP.
If you INCLUDE the Leans states with the Likely and Safe, the numbers are as follows:
If you DO NOT INCLUDE the Leans states, i.e., just counting Likely and Safe, the numbers are as follows:
With 270 needed for election, our Democratic readers will prefer the first tally, and our Republican readers the second. Indulge yourselves! As heated as the campaign will get, lets remember to have fun along the way.
Sabato is an idiot!
I have absolutely no respect for the man or his left leaning politics!
Sabato has apparently been asleep during the past year or so.
It’s as if the 2010 election never happened.
Yeah, at this point last election he had the Dems holding the House. What Tea Party?
Pray for America
I hope Obama thinks Texas and Florida are in play and ends up sinking a ton of money and resources there.
With gasoline headed for $6 a gallon, and food prices looking like gold futures, and the Middle East looking like Southeast Asia circa 1960, these numbers and all their blather mean nothing.................
I see it the same way every election cycle. Everything will go back to 2000. Which means, Ohio, Florida. The biggest change will be Wisconsin.
Votes will still be fraudulent in Philly and St. Louis.
The author ignores recent polling data that puts Florida as a GOP likely.
He also ignores the recent voting results in Wisconsin that would make it a toss-up state.
I believe PA and OH are also leaning GOP
And $4 gas doesn’t help Obama either.
While I don’t agree with this map. One thing is for sure, every presidential election will be down to the wire like in 2000, simply because 40% of the population of this country are living off of the government.
PA will never go for the GOP, they can manufacture votes in Philly till they get the numbers they need. WI is a tossup now.IN and FL are likely GOP and OH will be the state that makes or breaks the election.
He also ignores ( in his own state) how “far right” VA went in the last gov race, including our beloved AG, Cuchinelli, who is putting the screws to Obummercare...
As others have stated, Sabato is playing to the lefties until the writing is on the wall...
and he gets PAID by the VA tax payers to do it...
Sabato's work here is predicated largely on the 2008 turnout, and if I'm right it is completely nullified by lack of black turnout alone, not to mention the tea party factor.
Sabato lives in a time warp. He has no clue what is about to happen in 2012.
Yep - that's the elephant in the room; the media can ignore it, but on our weekly trips to the gas station, I hear a whole lotta "FUBO" coming from my fellow filler-uppers.
Would be better if anti-Obama sticker were next to every gas pump.
NH & ME will be in the R column!! ME is starting to look at the RATS as PESTS!! NH is going to get back to their LIBERTARIAN THINKING. CT, MA, RI and \/T will be in the MARXIST COLUMN.
By 2012, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Elections wouldnt be about winning states. Every vote, everywhere would be counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.
In the 2012 election, pundits and campaign operatives already agree that, at most, only 14 states and their voters will matter under the current winner-take-all laws (i.e., awarding all of a states electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state) used by 48 of the 50 states. Candidates will not care about at least 72% of the voters- voters-in 19 of the 22 lowest population and medium-small states, and big states like CA, GA, NY, and TX. 2012 campaigning would be even more obscenely exclusive than 2008 and 2004. Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or care about the voter concerns in the dozens of states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. Policies important to the citizens of flyover states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to battleground states when it comes to governing.
Since World War II, a shift of a handful of votes in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate in 4 of the 13 presidential elections. Near misses are now frequently common. There have been 6 consecutive non-landslide presidential elections. 537 popular votes won Florida and the White House for Bush in 2000 despite Gores lead of 537,179 popular votes nationwide. A shift of 60,000 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have defeated President Bush despite his nationwide lead of over 3 Million votes.
The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votesenough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a states electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support is strong among Republican voters, Democratic voters, and independent voters, as well as every demographic group surveyed in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls in closely divided battleground states: CO 68%, FL 78%, IA 75%,, MI 73%, MO 70%, NH 69%, NV 72%, NM 76%, NC 74%, OH 70%, PA 78%, VA 74%, and WI 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK 70%, DC 76%, DE 75%, ID 77%, ME 77%, MT 72%, NE 74%, NH 69%, NV 72%, NM 76%, OK 81%, RI 74%, SD 71%, UT 70%, VT 75%, WV 81%, and WY 69%; in Southern and border states: AR 80%,, KY- 80%, MS 77%, MO 70%, NC 74%, OK 81%, SC 71%, VA 74%, and WV 81%; and in other states polled: CA 70%, CT 74%, MA 73%, MN 75%, NY 79%, OR 76%, and WA 77%.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA, RI, VT, and WA. The bill has been enacted by DC, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA,VT, and WA. These 8 jurisdictions possess 77 electoral votes 29% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
When Bush was prez, the media pounded on him for gas prices 24/7.