Posted on 04/26/2011 2:27:56 PM PDT by AfricanChristian
Edited on 04/26/2011 3:18:05 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
On one level, it’s a familiar tale; advanced Western economies elbowed out by pushy Chinese. Yawn. Not much new in that. What’s not generally appreciated, however, is the speed with which this is occuring in many parts of the world, or the scale of it. In both Africa and Latin America, markets which Europe and the US have traditionally regarded as their own preserves, Western interests are being eclipsed by newer, brasher trading relationships with the fast growing economies of China and the rest of Asia. As in so much else, advanced economies are losing out to the developing world. A new study by Renaissance Capital’s Charles Robertson in conjunction with the consultant, Lucy Corkin, has had an in depth look at the phenomenon, and for Western economies, it doesn’t look great. Last year, China surpassed the US as Africa’s largest trading partner, and the relationship is growing at an exponential rate. From Nigeria to Sierra Leone, Angola, Kenya and Ghana, the Chinese seem to be taking over.
Don’t forget that Indians have always had a significant and deeper presence in Africa than the Chinese.
“Don’t forget that Indians have always had a significant and deeper presence in Africa than the Chinese.”
They’ve been purged from some of the former British colonies when they attained independence; Uganda & Kenya felt they had no use for them. Also, they weren’t serving as representatives of India itself.
True also that they were/are not representatives of India itself, but they serve as the initial persons for Indian companies to set up shop here. It would be far more permanent than the Chinese attempts.
The blacks felt that the Indians had profited from their labor while not working the soil themselves; they also felt that they could do the same function themselves.
This is how Freddy Mercury’s family ended up in England - they were expelled from Zanzibar. It wasn’t really a violent expulsion, but those Asians (unlike the British that left) could take nothing with them.
The former British East Africa has paid the price for that policy ever since.
| Oil > Consumption | 20,680,000 bbl/day |  |
[1st of 212] |
| Oil > Exports | 1,165,000 bbl/day | |
[16th of 184] |
| Oil > Production | 8,457,000 bbl/day | |
[3rd of 212] |
| Oil imports > Net | 10,400,000 barrels per day | [1st of 21] |
http://www.nationmaster.com/country/us-united-states/ene-energy
True. And AfricanChristian is correct that Africa has a number of different cultures, etc. The Ethiopians and North Africans in particular can't be clubbed with the sub-Saharan africans as their cultures and civilisations have always been in step with the Eurasian land-mass.
I see the problem of the native Americans and Aborigines as related to a civilisation at an earlier stage of development coming upon a civilisation at a much later stage.
What happens is classic -- the women adapt, but the men feel that they can no longer be bread-winners and so sink into alcohol or other substance abuse.
It's not so bad if the civilisation is just a few "steps" behind. But the problem is that much of West Africa and Southern Africa that was not in contact with the Arabs by the 14th century was still very much behind Eurasian powers. In fact, with the notable exceptions of West African Ghana etc states the rest of sub-saharan africa and africa south of Ethiopia was still tribal and nomadic and had not evolved socially beyond that.
They could not cope as a society (note as a society -- individuals brought up in a different culture would act differently -- this is not a race thing) with the heightened development and social needs for industrial farming or trading etc.
The trading was done by the Indians, specifically Gujaratis and Marwaris who have been traders for millenia.
This is similar to the position in Western Europe in the 5th-7th centuries, in Scandanavia from the 7th to the 13th centuries and in Central Europe until the 12th century. The Jews performed the same part in Europe as Indians do in Africa (this of course means that AFrica CAN catch up).
U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption. Total consumption of petroleum and non-petroleum liquid fuels increased by 380,000 bbl/d (2.0 percent) to 19.1 million bbl/d in 2010 (U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth Chart). Projected total U.S. liquid fuels consumption increases by 210,000 bbl/d (1.1 percent) in 2011, and by a further 160,000 bbl/d (0.9 percent), to 19.5 million bbl/d, in 2012. Transportation fuels (motor gasoline distillate fuel, and jet fuel) account for about 75 percent of the growth in total consumption in 2011 and almost all of the growth in 2012.
U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply and Imports. Domestic crude oil production, which increased by 150,000 bbl/d in 2010 to 5.51 million bbl/d, declines by 30,000 bbl/d in 2011 and by a further 120,000 bbl/d in 2012 (U.S. Crude Oil Production Chart). The forecast includes Alaska production declines of 60,000 bbl/d in 2011 and 10,000 bbl/d in 2012. EIA expects production from the Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to fall by 190,000 bbl/d in both 2011 and 2012. The forecast production declines in Alaska and the GOM are partially offset by projected increases in lower-48 non-GOM production of 220,000 bbl/d in 2011 and 70,000 bbl/d in 2012.
Yeah the nationmaster numbers were 2007 when the economy was a lot better and we didn’t have a Kenyan president sabotaging oil production on US soil
Your knowledge of Africa is admirable. However, there are a few points I would like to raise.
1. West Africa was the home to many large states in the pre-colonial era with highly developed social systems. Examples include the Yoruba states, Dahomey, the Benin Kingdom and the Kwarafa Kingdom. Central Africa also had many large states like the Kongo kingdom. The Zulus and Xhosas in South Africa also had relatively well developed societies.
2. I agree that there are communities like the Masai, the Pygmies and Kalahari Bushmen who find it extremely difficult to adapt to modern society. Unfortunately, Western media tends to concentrate on these groups creating a warped view of African society.
3. I don’t agree that African have the same problems with adapting to modern society as the native Americans and Aborigines. The success of the African diaspora in Europe and North America shows that the problem is not the inability to adapt to the twenty first century, but the absence of opportunities at home.
4. Indian immigrants are very active economically in Africa but there are other major players like the Lebanese, the Igbo and the Hausa in West Africa and the Kikiyu in East Africa. Kano in Northern Nigeria was and still is a hub of trade between Northern Africa and the Sudan. The Igbo of Nigeria also have play a large role in trade in West Africa.
It is instructive that the richest African is a Hausa-Fulani from Kano.
5. I believe that the Chinese will be more successful than the Indians in the long run. The Indians have a very long history in Africa but have remained a very closed society. The Chinese (this might surprise you), are considered more open the Indians. You are more likely to see Chinese making attempts to interact with the locals than the Indians (they don’t carry the baggage of the Indian caste system with them). In addition, Chinese are more likely to marry local girls than Indians (Jean Ping, head of the African Union is the son of a Chinese trader).
6. A major problem (some say the major problem) with the modern African state is that most African states are artificial. Borders of African states merely reflect French, British, Portuguese and Spanish areas of influence decided in 1884 - 1885 Berlin conference. For example, the British grouped the traditional slave raiders (the Northern Sudanese) with people who traditionally resisted slave raiding (the Southern Sudanese). The Southern Sudanese had much more in common with the Nilotic peoples of East Africa (like the Luo of Kenya) than with the Arabised Sudanese, yet the British still stuck to their guns.
The end result was that 2.5 million people had to lose their lives before a Southern Sudanese state (which should have been created in 1956) came to be.
So much energy is expended in fighting between different ethnic groups in artificial states that development often takes a back seat. A similar situation existed in Europe until the peace of Westphalia was signed and Africa is moving in that direction, albeit violently.
7. The next few decades in Africa are likely to be more peaceful than the previous two for the simple reason that there is finite amount of violence people can take and the growing role of civil society. I cannot see a situation in which Rwanda would revert to the levels of the 1994 massacre in the next two generations and Nigeria has been spared a full blown Civil War because the memory of the last Civil War in which 1 million people died is still fresh. The 2007 crisis in Kenya was resolved because Kenyan Civil society did not want the gains of steady economic growth to be erased by inter-ethnic fighting and the Congo War is frankly speaking, running out of steam.
Your knowledge of Africa is admirable. However, there are a few points I would like to raise.
1. West Africa was the home to many large states in the pre-colonial era with highly developed social systems. Examples include the Yoruba states, Dahomey, the Benin Kingdom and the Kwarafa Kingdom. Central Africa also had many large states like the Kongo kingdom. The Zulus and Xhosas in South Africa also had relatively well developed societies.
2. I agree that there are communities like the Masai, the Pygmies and Kalahari Bushmen who find it extremely difficult to adapt to modern society. Unfortunately, Western media tends to concentrate on these groups creating a warped view of African society.
3. I don’t agree that African have the same problems with adapting to modern society as the native Americans and Aborigines. The success of the African diaspora in Europe and North America shows that the problem is not the inability to adapt to the twenty first century, but the absence of opportunities at home.
4. Indian immigrants are very active economically in Africa but there are other major players like the Lebanese, the Igbo and the Hausa in West Africa and the Kikiyu in East Africa. Kano in Northern Nigeria was and still is a hub of trade between Northern Africa and the Sudan. The Igbo of Nigeria also have play a large role in trade in West Africa.
It is instructive that the richest African is a Hausa-Fulani from Kano.
5. I believe that the Chinese will be more successful than the Indians in the long run. The Indians have a very long history in Africa but have remained a very closed society. The Chinese (this might surprise you), are considered more open the Indians. You are more likely to see Chinese making attempts to interact with the locals than the Indians (they don’t carry the baggage of the Indian caste system with them). In addition, Chinese are more likely to marry local girls than Indians (Jean Ping, head of the African Union is the son of a Chinese trader).
6. A major problem (some say the major problem) with the modern African state is that most African states are artificial. Borders of African states merely reflect French, British, Portuguese and Spanish areas of influence decided in 1884 - 1885 Berlin conference. For example, the British grouped the traditional slave raiders (the Northern Sudanese) with people who traditionally resisted slave raiding (the Southern Sudanese). The Southern Sudanese had much more in common with the Nilotic peoples of East Africa (like the Luo of Kenya) than with the Arabised Sudanese, yet the British still stuck to their guns.
The end result was that 2.5 million people had to lose their lives before a Southern Sudanese state (which should have been created in 1956) came to be.
So much energy is expended in fighting between different ethnic groups in artificial states that development often takes a back seat. A similar situation existed in Europe until the peace of Westphalia was signed and Africa is moving in that direction, albeit violently.
7. The next few decades in Africa are likely to be more peaceful than the previous two for the simple reason that there is finite amount of violence people can take and the growing role of civil society. I cannot see a situation in which Rwanda would revert to the levels of the 1994 massacre in the next two generations and Nigeria has been spared a full blown Civil War because the memory of the last Civil War in which 1 million people died is still fresh. The 2007 crisis in Kenya was resolved because Kenyan Civil society did not want the gains of steady economic growth to be erased by inter-ethnic fighting and the Congo War is frankly speaking, running out of steam.
To respond to your points:
The absence of opportunities -- this is caused due to bad boundaries cutting across tribal lines and also because some societies haven't progressed beyond clan lines. This is not only an "African problem" but also visible in Afghanistan, Albania etc.
Benin and the Yoruba states for example, were not influenced by Arab and Berber culture - they were forest states.
The Masai, Pygmies and Khoi Khoi represent the Western caricature of Africa. These groups are largely resistant to the modern World so the West assumes that Africa is resistant to the modern World. (the Masai like the Luo are usually classed as Nilotic, not Bantu).
The problem with the Somali diaspora is similar to the problem with certain segments of the Pakistani and Algerian diaspora - the impact of a flavour of Islam that is yet to reconcile itself with the 21st Century.
The Hausa-Fulani I referred to is Aliko Dangote.
The Chinese carry much less cultural baggage than Indians, they don’t have a caste system and religious mythology built around caste. This is not say that Chinese are not racist but I do not know a society as obsessed with caste and class as Indian society.
There are pockets of the Indian diaspora in Africa that are more open to interaction such as the Indian community in South Africa but in general, Indians do not interact socially with locals.
Please also note that Western expatriates interact even less with locals than either the Chinese or the Indians. Do not let National Geographic documentary film makers, graduate researchers and movie stars fool you. These people have only a transient interest in Africa and they don’t represent the average Westerner in Africa.
Thank you -- I need to read more about these
The Masai, Pygmies and Khoi Khoi represent the Western caricature of Africa. These groups are largely resistant to the modern World so the West assumes that Africa is resistant to the modern World -- not completely correct. The Masai, Pygmies, Khoi-Khoi in fact are viewed positively in the West. What gives Africa a bad name in the West is the actions in Liberia, Sierra Leone, the Congo, Zimbabwe and also now in South Africa -- the senseless murders, cutting off of handing, rapes etc. That gives all "Africa" a bad name
The problem with the Somali diaspora is similar to the problem with certain segments of the Pakistani and Algerian diaspora - the impact of a flavour of Islam that is yet to reconcile itself with the 21st Century. -- somewhat correct, it is not just a "flavour" of Islam but Islam itself.
The Hausa-Fulani I referred to is Aliko Dangote thank you for that reference -- more for me to read up on
These people have only a transient interest in Africa and they don’t represent the average Westerner in Africa. -- I'm sure they don't. What then is the impression of the average Westerner in AFrica?
Also, on the other foot, AFricans too have stereotypes of the West -- for them this is mostly either American or British or French (depending on the part of AFrica) -- the rest of the "western World" doesn't ring a bell :)
Old story from the Times about Chinese men and Tanzanian women: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article6871900.ece
The average Westerner in Africa works for a multinational company, lives in secluded quarters and has very little interaction with the locals.
To understand the interaction of the West with Africa you need to understand how colonial society was structured. For example, when Nigeria was a British colony there were only about 40,000 British administering a colony of 40 million so even then probability of an ordinary Nigerian coming in contact with a “flesh and blood” Briton was pretty slim.
As a result, when independence was granted there were very few person to person bonds with the British people (Bonds with English and Irish missionaries are an exception).
The French, as I understand were more invested in their African colonies so the person to person interaction was greater (I cannot talk about that authoritatively).
In present day Lagos, 90% of Westerners live the Ikoyi, Victoria Island and Lekki axis. The reasons are different (security), but the parallels between the European Quarters of the Colonial era are there. Most Westerners live in a constant state of siege, with security reports from the US, British, French and German embassies telling them to stay at home. So they end up not interacting with the locals even if they want to.
I worked at two Fortune 500 companies in Lagos, Nigeria and the unwritten rule is that you don’t expect Westerners to come for your social events (apart from after work meetings at the bar) and Westerners also don’t expect you to come for their own social events. Westerners don’t know where and how the locals live and vice versa.
This is tragic, because in many cases the opportunity for meaningful social interaction is lost. (African society is much more communal than Western society).
The result is that the average local does not interact with or appreciate the difference between Germans, British, Americans or French expatriates - they are all “Oyibo”. They have their lifestyle and we have ours.
Consequently, most locals obtain their impression of the West from either Africans abroad or from Hollywood and Western Media. Britain comes off very badly because the British have a reputation for being cold, distant and socially awkward. The Americans are seen as being warm and friendly.
For socio-economic reasons the Chinese have closer interaction with the locals than Western expatriates. They are poorer and they are more likely to live in the same neighbourhood as the locals (I have a couple of Chinese neighbours). Their businesses also depend more on interaction with the locals (there is a Chinese market a few hundred metres from my housing estate).
I expect that in the next few decades the Chinese will have a much better understanding of African society (not an academic understanding) than the French or British ever had.
Examples of Yoruba art work (Ife Art). 
Some of these pieces date from the 13th-14th Century. They are unmistakably African (no Arab influence) and the level of craftsmanship is very high.
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