Posted on 05/01/2011 9:30:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The folks at Rasmussen are either geniuses or they have way too much time on their hands. I can never make up my mind which. In any event they continue to occupy themselves with a dizzying array of scenarios to question Americans on, generally just when they are sitting down to dinner. This week’s offering is a rather odd question where they want to know who will win the GOP nomination… if none of the people we think might win the nomination decide to run.
What if they held a Republican Primary contest and the front-runners didn’t show up? Or what if voters look for anybody but the front-runner? How do primary voters view the dark horses who are possible contenders for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination?
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters finds that Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann earns 27% support when pitted against eight other possible second-tier candidates. Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania earns 12% of the vote, while Georgia businessman Herman Cain picks up nine percent (9%).
Texas Governor Rick Perry gets seven percent (7%) of the likely primary vote, followed by Jon Huntsman, former Utah governor and ex-ambassador to China, with three percent (3%) backing. Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, retired New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter each pick up one percent (1%) of the vote.
You can fairly poll on a wide variety of topics and come up with some statistically meaningful results, make no mistake. But the question at least needs to begin with a basic assumption which is fairly incontrovertible. This one seems to be built on a foundation which involves far more speculation and creative judgment than could be judged as scientific.
First of all, how does one arrive at definitive groupings of who is a “dark horse” and who is a front-runner? Looking at nothing but the most recent math, The Donald is the presumptive GOP nominee, but particularly after his one night stand-up routine in Sin City, does anyone really think he can win? (Assuming he even has any real intention of running?) Is he still a “front-runner?”
Palin and Huckabee, sure. But… are they definitely running? We all know Mittens wants to run more than life itself, but he’s been rather busy shooting himself in the foot lately. And where is Pawlenty? He isn’t put in with the “dark horses.” Look, I love me some T-Paw, but is he one of the front-runners now? But he’s clearly at least as much in the running – if not more so – than quite a few on their “second tier” list. The polls are constantly shifting, so it’s tough to say where Rasmussen came up with the break point to determine where they began listing people with the rather pejorative “second tier” moniker.
But assuming it’s somewhere in the ballpark, how does the list look to you? Just for fun, I matched up this poll’s results with the answers supplied by Hot Air’s readers to a question posed by Patrick Ishmael not too long ago. He asked who you would support if Palin was taken out of the race. (A good benchmark since the HA readership doesn’t come up with many other answers if you leave her in.) If we then remove the rest of the Rasmussen designated front-runners the order you lined them up in was: (Provided in raw vote count for comparison, not percentage)
Rasmussen had:
Interestingly enough, Hot Air’s readers really don’t come out all that differently from the rest of the country in terms of the finishing order, with one notable exception: Santorum and Cain are pretty much reversed. Cain is wildly popular with Hot Air readers, but barely rises above the background noise level nationally. And Santorum is down in the grass at Hot Air, but shows some surprising potential according to Rasmussen.
Just something else to chew on for Sunday. Have at it.
Go Pat Go.
You betcha’
So, when is our INELUCTABLE candidate declaring her candidacy? She does not even have a campaign presence in Iowa.
RE: You’re one of those dufuses that think a Tina Fey quote is the same thing as a Sarah Palin quote, aren’t you?
What makes you think that ?
And how do you know that? Has she called you up and told you? Perhaps there's a lot going on in Iowa you don't know about (yet).
Is it racist to call Herman Cain a Dark Horse?
Wisely, it seems she’s not interested. She’s making too much money and having too much fun being a reality TV star.
RE: Is it racist to call Herman Cain a Dark Horse?
1) Being a Dark Horse is a good thing so, why should it be racist?
2) If ever he wins the nomination, let’s call him the Knight on the White Horse to the rescue.
Yes, Palin does have a presence in Iowa...as she does in a number of states. You can actually see photos of some of them working at the Madison, WI rally.
RE: And how do you know that? Has she called you up and told you?
EVIDENCE IS ALL I HAVE, If I don’t see it, why should I conclude that she has one? I don’t go by the word “Perhaps”.
If you’re serious about being POTUS, you cannot ignore Iowa.
With no formal political operation in Iowa, Palin’s campaign ( if there ever will be one ) right now is in the hands of a California lawyer and “tea party” supporter who has anointed himself her unofficial Iowa state director, and a retired potato chip salesman who is trying to coalesce support for her online. They know each other, but neither is officially connected to SarahPAC, her national political operation.
Palin has been seen in other place, India, Israel, New York, California, Oklahoma and, most recently, Wisconsin. But not Iowa, the state that usually make or break a POTUS candidate.
But then, what does that have to do with Tina Fey?
What this tells me is the “grass roots” wish there was somebody more conservative out there than the names most of the mainstream and the talking heads would like us to focus on.
Personally, I see Trump as a poser who the Dems would love to run against (a virtual symbol of corporatism to pummel with their strawman attacks and whip up their union lackeys).
I’m of two minds about Palin but, if she’s out, Bachmann works for me. And wouldn’t it be cool to find a veep nominee with the name “Turner” to balance the ticket (no, not Ted)?
Latest Election Polls,
Election 2012Election 2011State of the UnionAll Latest
PollsFriday, April 29
Race (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination FOX News Huckabee 17, Trump 8, Romney 19, Palin 9, Gingrich 7, Paul 7, Bachmann 3, Pawlenty 3, Daniels 2, Santorum 3 Romney +2
Thursday, April 28
Race (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Rasmussen Huckabee 15, Trump 19, Romney 17, Palin 9, Gingrich 9, Paul 8, Bachmann , Pawlenty 5, Daniels 3, Santorum Trump +2
Nevada Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Romney 24, Trump 16, Gingrich 11, Huckabee 10, Palin 8, Pawlenty 8, Bachmann 7, Paul 5, Daniels
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