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Bin Laden Death Will Not Boost Obama: Expert
CNBC ^ | May 03, 2011 | Patrick Allen

Posted on 05/03/2011 1:41:43 AM PDT by CutePuppy

The euphoric scenes that met the death of Osama Bin Laden will not boost President Barack Obama's re-election hopes, according to Alastair Newton, a political analyst at Nomura in London.

“The immediate reaction in the US notwithstanding, 'normal business' will soon be resumed in US politics. There will be no change on the fiscal/debt polarization and contrary to some commentators' reaction, definitely no election boost for Obama," said Newton in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.

With little or no operational control over al-Qaeda in recent years, Newton believes Osama's death will have little impact on the terror group's ability to mount attacks.

“Bin Laden's role as head of al-Qaeda seems to have been largely symbolic for some years now, he was not responsible for operational planning and decision-making," he added.


(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; binladen; deathers; elections; irrelevant; obama; obama2012; osama; osamabinladen; symbolic
Symbolic and great for morale (and domestic politics), but affects little in the GWOT (except, possibly, for the "treasure trove" of collected data on the HDs).

Ayman al-Zawahiri has been operational and strategic leader of al-Qaeda since at least 2003, if not earlier.

1 posted on 05/03/2011 1:41:45 AM PDT by CutePuppy
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To: CutePuppy

“Symbolic and great for morale (and domestic politics), but affects little in the GWOT”

I agree.
The people are having their little party now, but in the
morning they will have a hangover and still a big headache.
Obambie still gets the blame.
By Nov. 2012 they will ask..Osama, who?

2 posted on 05/03/2011 1:48:49 AM PDT by AlexW (Proud eligibility skeptic)
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To: CutePuppy

I think it was a significant victory and, realistically, I think Obama can expect a bit of a boost out of it. The question is, will it be enough to jump start something bigger. As we saw in the 2008 campaign, Obama is at his best when he has developed some momentum. If he can turn this into momentum, he’ll be harder to beat.

3 posted on 05/03/2011 1:51:48 AM PDT by RC one (Donald Trump-I'm still listening)
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To: CutePuppy

Well I’m not expert. I don’t even play an expert on tv. And I did not stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

But I agree with the premise completely. Here is my take:

Liberals do one thing. Only one thing. Always: That thing liberals do is called “projection”. Attributing to conservatives, the things they are.

Liberals if you will recall, rallied around the flag for about 15 minutes following 9-11, but almost immediately began trying to manipulate America into military defeat in order to weaken Bush.

They see everything as political, care not one bit for America, and in their PR euphoria during the last 24 hours believed in what substitutes for their hearts, this would be their magic issue. To defeat conservatives with.

Not a chance.

My experience today expressing happiness about things to liberals I know, was really strange. Like they were uncomfortable to be on the patriotic side, with me agreeing with them. Very odd.

Liberals I think, expected us to go after Obama on this. They really expected us to be unhappy.

Once they realize they’ve stepped into the patriotic, America first corner and we’re right there agreeing with them.

They’ll scram. No way, do they want to stay there being patriotic with conservatives agreeing with them about a strong America.

They don’t really believe in it, and will become uncomfortable with it very fast.

Just you watch.

4 posted on 05/03/2011 1:52:28 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network ("Saul Alinsky, meet Donald Trump...")
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To: CutePuppy
Any bump ZERO gets will be gone because he will exploit it.
5 posted on 05/03/2011 1:58:45 AM PDT by DeaconRed (O The carnival barker said: "We don't have time for This silliness" I agree Impeach 0 Now)
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To: CutePuppy

Keep in mind George Bush Sr. had a 92% Approval rating after Gulf War 1 and he was fired for a lot less than Obama has done.

6 posted on 05/03/2011 2:02:11 AM PDT by ICE-FLYER (God bless and keep the United States of America)
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To: Voter#537

He already screwed it up by immediately dumping the body after an Islamic funeral.

7 posted on 05/03/2011 2:07:59 AM PDT by ari-freedom (All we are give the military a chance)
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To: CutePuppy

If this is true, it would have happened no matter who was president now. It took that long. Obummy the narcissist tries to take credit for this.

8 posted on 05/03/2011 2:16:15 AM PDT by Seeing More Clearly Now (
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To: Seeing More Clearly Now
If this is true, it would have happened no matter who was president now.

What matters is not who is President now. What matters is who was President then.

The revelation that intelligence gleaned from the CIA's so-called black sites helped kill bin Laden was seen as vindication for many intelligence officials who have been repeatedly investigated and criticized for their involvement in a program that involved the harshest interrogation methods in U.S. history. "We got beat up for it, but those efforts led to this great day," said Marty Martin, a retired CIA officer who for years led the hunt for bin Laden.

9 posted on 05/03/2011 2:21:54 AM PDT by Polybius
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To: ari-freedom
Concur 100%. There was no reason to discard the corpse instantly.
OBL, each scrap of paper, and every computer device at that house should be examined.
Adhering to all the Muslim burial protocol was just plain silly.

10 posted on 05/03/2011 2:23:33 AM PDT by Blue Jays (Rock Hard, Ride Free)
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To: ari-freedom
"He already screwed it up by immediately dumping the body after an Islamic funeral."

His taking full credit, barely mentioning the seals, and no mention of "W" and the way they got the information.
It's ZERO he will screw it up even more - guaranteed. ! ! ! ! ! ! !

11 posted on 05/03/2011 2:28:39 AM PDT by DeaconRed (O The carnival barker said: "We don't have time for This silliness" I agree Impeach 0 Now)
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To: CutePuppy

Symbolic is a greatword for Bin Laden’s death. As I have said before the cemeteries are full of indespensible people.

Radical Islam has been around for hundreds of years and is not going to go away anytime soon.

12 posted on 05/03/2011 2:30:50 AM PDT by Coldwater Creek (He who dwells in the shelter of the Most High will rest in the shadow of the Almighty Psalm 91:)
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To: RC one

I’m not seeing it. The guy did one thing right in 2 1/2 years. That doesn’t wipe out all the “aw shxts” he’s got with the biggies being, massive national debt, obamacare, gas prices doubling + , high food prices and going higher and high unemployment.

BO is the all time worst president and he achieved that in record time.

13 posted on 05/03/2011 2:33:57 AM PDT by maddog55 (OBAMA: Why stupid people shouldn't vote.)
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To: CutePuppy; All

I believe he MAY get a poll boost...short lived and broad but not deep.

Hussein did DICK in the execution of the mission. Basically, he got OUT OF THE WAY. So at least his handlers told him to do that—otherwise, he’d screw that up, too. The nature of a smug, self-absorbed totalitarian is to try and be involved in all big decisions. Basically, Axeldork and some of Hussein’s other sycophants were able to persuade him to have a big cup of STFU and let the military work.

Or, perhaps, the generals/admirals told him—in their own way, of course—to go have a clambake while the big boys did their duty.

14 posted on 05/03/2011 2:34:54 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
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To: Voter#537
Exactly. He's been repeating for over two years now that he “inherited” the economy, but can't manage to concede that he inherited any information that led to finding Osama.
15 posted on 05/03/2011 2:37:26 AM PDT by JoeRed
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

If the poll numbers agree with what you like, you believe them.
If the poll numbers disagree with your likes, you disbelieve them.——Ronald Reagan, 1985

“You don’t have to believe in reality. Reality works whether you believe in it or not. Fantasies do not work the same way.”
-—origin uncertain. Recently attributed to Pope Pious, Mark Twain, Newt Gingrich, ....

16 posted on 05/03/2011 2:39:30 AM PDT by saltus (God's Will be done)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network; Voter#537
You are right. Obama already has overplayed his hand, in the first press-conference on the subject, by emphasizing and repeating "I" over and over.

He couldn't help it, for he is a narcissist of the first order. That plays with the liberals because they are cultists by nature (and nurture), but for most normal people it looks, sounds and feels in bad taste, especially as details of how this operation came about - going back many years, and impossible without Bush administration insisting on efforts which were loudly protested as "illegal" and criticized by Obama and liberals - become better known.

As soon as liberals wake up and come down from their euphoria and descend into real life again, they will realize that the chants of "USA! USA!" didn't and won't translate into what they mentally heard in their heads as "Obama! Obama!" That will be some bad hangover.

Faced with dismal poll numbers, Obama is trying to do the only thing he can - replay the Clinton's 1995 OKC bombing script which helped revive Clinton's campaign, but the nature of the terrorism (OKC was considered "domestic" while al-Qaeda is a foreign/international), the economy, world's financial conditions and the mood are different, and he is different from Clinton - more arrogant, supercilious, narcissistic, self-absorbed and less capable of playing and selling triangulation game.

And Clintons were stopped early from damaging the economy with HillaryCare and some other onerous laws and regulations, while ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank FinReg, heavy-handed activism by EPA, DOJ, FCC and other agencies are still with us and are just beginning to do the damage.

17 posted on 05/03/2011 2:44:50 AM PDT by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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To: maddog55

I didn’t say it was game over for us, just that it will probably give him a boost and he may turn it into some kinetic energy. I’m not going to just write the guy off. He runs a mean campaign and will be formidable despite his shortcomings. If we put the wrong person up against him, we could easily lose. Don’t doubt it.

18 posted on 05/03/2011 2:52:15 AM PDT by RC one (Donald Trump-I'm still listening)
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To: RC one

The man over all is a coward. He had really no choice before him. Think about it.

He’s told that we know the whereabouts of Bin Laden. The guy has a dozen or so meetings about it. Each meeting there is risk of a leak.

Finally, he’s faced with two choices, (not three which would be to do nothing). Either kill Bin Laden with a drone or with an ambush.

He chooses the ambush, because just about everyone in the room recommends it.

This time the good guys came out on top. It could have gone bad, e.g. if the Pakistani military had attacked. In fact, were they at all part of this operation?

19 posted on 05/03/2011 3:19:08 AM PDT by nikos1121
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To: AlexW

Interesting that he made this enormous announcement on communist May Day (May 1). Coincidence? Maybe.

20 posted on 05/03/2011 3:19:21 AM PDT by ETL (ALL (most?) of the Obama-commie connections at my FR Home page:
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

I aGREE with you 100%.

21 posted on 05/03/2011 3:21:04 AM PDT by nikos1121
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To: All; CutePuppy
Don't worry they'll poll "adults" which will artificially inflate his numbers above any bounce he might get. And they'll push-poll by asking OBL related questions.

I wouldn't be surprised if he got 20 points. Be on the lookout!

22 posted on 05/03/2011 3:54:16 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Even the worst golfer can get a birdie. Stay focused on debt & deficits!)
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To: nikos1121

Actually, Obama had a big advantage: he knew that no matter what he did, he would have the ecstatic support of the media and the left.

Our people had obviously known where Osama was for some time, and it was just a matter of timing this. It was actually supposed to be carried out the day before, just before the Press Club dinner, but was moved to the next day because of bad weather. So Bambi obviously wanted to announce it at the press event.

No matter what Pakistan is saying, this was done with their permission. Osama was a worn-out jihadi, in poor health, and had become a liability, so this was a godfather-like rubout. That does not detract from the careful planning or courage of our SEALS, because there was most certainly a great deal of risk in the operation. But I don’t think there was ever the risk that the Pakistani military was going to pour out of their nearby compounds and into the streets, or that Pakistan was going to retaliate by launching one of its nukes at India or anything of that nature.

It was time for Osama to go bye-bye, and Obama picked the moment that would be most beneficial to him. That said, can you imagine the storm that would have been unleashed by the press if the Bush government had killed Osama in his bed? We’d have instantaneous calls for the international trial of Bush.

But, as I say, Obama knew that no matter what he did, even if the mission had failed, he would have the unconditional support of the media and the leftist establishment in this country.

23 posted on 05/03/2011 3:56:20 AM PDT by livius
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To: CutePuppy
Wanna bet?


24 posted on 05/03/2011 4:03:04 AM PDT by MichaelP (The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools ~HS)
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To: CutePuppy

the boost lasts until the next time they buy gas

25 posted on 05/03/2011 4:05:55 AM PDT by The Wizard (Madam President is my President now, and in the future)
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To: CutePuppy

26 posted on 05/03/2011 4:08:36 AM PDT by TSgt (Colonel Allen West & Michele Bachman - 2012 POTUS Dream Team Ticket!)
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To: All
My post it notes today will say --

Osama Bin Laden may be dead but you are still paying $4 a gallon for gas. Socialism makes YOU poor!

27 posted on 05/03/2011 4:09:19 AM PDT by riri
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To: CutePuppy

If anything, Osama’s death has reminded the public of 9-11 once again. Does that help Obama in the election in 2012? Let’s see how the admin deals with the ten year anniversary...

28 posted on 05/03/2011 4:17:41 AM PDT by Katya (Homo Nosce Te Ipsum)
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To: CutePuppy

Britt Hume was on last night and agreed

His points:
1) People didn’t like/dislike Obama because of his progress on getting Bin Laden
2) People dislike Obama because of his bumbling the economy, foreign relations, wild spending, Obamacare, etc
3) Osama Bin Laden was essentially neutralized anyway

However, Hume DID note that it will now be impossible to claim Obama is weak on terrorism.

And the efforts of the Bush administration cannot be forgotten. As one Freeper said, giving Obama credit for getting Bin Laden is like giving Truman credit for winning World War II

29 posted on 05/03/2011 4:22:21 AM PDT by kidd
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To: The Wizard

Or visit the grocery store. Food prices are rising very fast and that is the first topic of conversation, more so than gas even. Between the two of them people will start to feel very seriously pressured.

30 posted on 05/03/2011 4:42:21 AM PDT by Roses0508
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To: CutePuppy

There is so much that could happen before 2012, we could be staring at a big crater where Manhattan Island is, due to a nuclear bomb given to Al Qaeda by Iran or North Korea.

We could see a total collapse of the dollar, possibly even the beginning of states dropping out of the union.

These are things that dwarf this story, the very survival of America could play out in the next two years.

31 posted on 05/03/2011 4:51:44 AM PDT by Brett66 (Where government advances, and it advances relentlessly , freedom is imperiled -Janice Rogers Brown)
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To: All; Coldwater Creek
Symbolic is a great word for Bin Laden’s death.

Yes it is. How will Obama use it to political advantage? He's talking about maintaining "unity" which means he wants to roll over any adults in congress on the debt ceiling and 2012 budget.

Thursday's "Ground Zero" event is really a campaign stop. Totally unnecessary, assigns too much importance to OBL, distracts from critical domestic issues that are hurting him and leaves a fat carbon footprint and travel bill for the taxpayer.

Yesterday we had Treasurer Tim Geithner telling congress in a letter he will use "bookkeeping methods" to allow borrowing well past the mid-month limit on the debt ceiling. Most news coverage largely focused on OBL details still being dribbled out.

Since Obama knew the OBL kill operation was coming up he released the long-form and scolded us for being unserious. Trump was drawn into the trap by taking credit. Obama underscored his theme by then mocking Trump at the correspondent's dinner. Just for spite, they "scheduled" the announcement to cut into "Celebrity Apprentice" when they knew it wasn't necessary. He used the OBL operation to show only he is serious.

Never mind the golf, the tv gigs, the high gas prices, burning up fuel for lavish fundraisers, high unemployment, believe in "Dear Leader" and not your lying eyes.

It was a political operation. He was able to recapture the narrative from Trump and the genuine domestic economy misery stories. Was Trump getting under his skin or just getting too much press? For any 2012 campaigns it may be worth studying the recent few months.

Obama'd like nothing more than to see a "deather" faction spring up to be used as a foil just like the "birther" movement. He can point at these "VRWC" honey jars of his own creation and say, "Look how silly they are: my opponents. You can't trust them to handle serious issues."

It's a cycle of bait, belittle, attack, trap.

He has the tactics down but he's politically obtuse. He's not natural the way Bill Clinton was. He can't speak extemporaneously. The fundamental facts are not in his favor.

While at this moment he can point to the OBL "victory" as a way to deflect criticism that he's inattentive it won't last long if the economy continues to drag. People will naturally come to resent the golfing, the trips, the celebrity schmoozing. He can only hide behind his professorial act so long to feign control and fake competence.

It's looking like 2012 will be "it's the economy, stupid." Voters will naturally ask themselves why this "smart" "professorial" guy hasn't been able to get the economy going. The only conclusion they'll be able to make is he doesn't have the answers and want another president representing fresh ideas.

I'm not sure who the best candidate of our mötley crüe would be yet. I'm reshuffling the deck in my head and awaiting a few debates.

32 posted on 05/03/2011 5:05:18 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Even the worst golfer can get a birdie. Stay focused on debt & deficits!)
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Comment #33 Removed by Moderator

To: RC one
When I woke up yesterday and heard the news about OBL, I had an uptick in approval for Obama. That lasted until I stopped for 4$+/gal gas, on my way to work at a job that hasn't seen a raise in 4 yrs. I'm sure more momentum will be lost when I go to the grocery store later. So I doubt my 2012 vote will be heavily influenced by the fact that OBL now hangs out with Spongebob.
34 posted on 05/03/2011 5:06:23 AM PDT by skully (Where's Gault Gulch??...any vacancies??)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

I think you nailed it! (#4)

35 posted on 05/03/2011 5:21:36 AM PDT by Caipirabob ( Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: AlexW

Make no mistake, the death of Osama is important both practically and psychologically. Osama is the face of Al Qaida and he WAS the head of affairs in Al Qaida when the attacks on the US were planned and carried out. Yes, his death is significant!

However, the euphoria of “O” supporters over this is not ‘sustainable’.
There are many reasons for this:

• The DNC is NOT pro-Military… never has been and will not become so
• The DNC is NOT adroit at foreign policy…never has been and will not become so
• “O” did not/could not campaign on his foreign policy experience or expertise
• Osama was clearly the special target and finally the victim of a drive against terrorism initiated by President Bush and which has carried through to the present (albeit without DNC support). Everyone KNOWS that if left to “O” and his corner, the US would have walked away from this commitment long ago. That “O” now grandstands on the success of President Bush’s plan is nauseating.
• “O”, as President, is a demonstrated foreign policy failure (or, worse if possible) and lacks the resolution and vision for a coherent US global posture.
• Necessary as it was…undeserving as Pakistan IS of US consideration….the US assault on Osama violated the sovereign territory of Pakistan and “O” has yet to answer for this. (I don’t recall Bush ignoring the sovereign territory of Turkey when we went after Sadaam. In fact we took more losses than necessary and took longer reaching our goal, BECAUSE we honored their turf)

It’s pointless going on like this.

The DNC and their creatures have ALWAYS regarded themselves ABOVE the kind of pride and patriotism associated with the defeat of US enemies, in the field or otherwise. To think that they will NOW become foreign policy ‘hawks’ just to sway voters is unrealistic.

Liberals will revert to type real quick here and their America bashing will renew apace. Count on it.

36 posted on 05/03/2011 5:22:06 AM PDT by SMARTY (Conforming to non-conformity is conforming just the same!)
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To: CutePuppy

I wish to thank President Obama for NOT going through with his campaign promises to shut down Guantanamo, and pull the troops out of the Middle East.

It was his failure to deliver his own campaign promised that allowed the men and women of the greatest military in the world to gather the necessary intelligence to find bin Laden and terminate him (as well as anyone within shooting distance) with extreme prejudice.

The killing of OBL has been, without a doubt, the most spectacularly successful unintended consequence of one of a long list of Obama's failures to date.

Thank you Mr. is to wishing you equally spectacular failures in the following endeavors:

All my best.

Requiem æternam dona eis, Domine; In memoria æterna erit justus, ab auditione mala non timebit.


37 posted on 05/03/2011 5:43:15 AM PDT by Lancelot Jones (Non nobis, Domine, non nobis, sed nomini tuo da gloriam.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Yeah. All the libs I know are strangely quiet, almost embarrased about killing Bin Laden.

38 posted on 05/03/2011 6:05:11 AM PDT by HIDEK6
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