Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Kaine, Allen tied in 2012 Senate matchup, Post poll shows
The Washington Post ^ | May 7, 2011 | Ben Pershing and Peyton M. Craighill

Posted on 05/08/2011 10:12:39 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued

George Allen and Timothy M. Kaine are locked in a dead heat 18 months from Election Day, according to a new Washington Post poll, suggesting that the U.S. Senate race between the Virginia titans may live up to its billing as one of the most competitive contests in the nation.

The candidates are tied at 46 percent among registered voters in the battle to succeed retiring Sen. James Webb (D). Neither Allen (R) nor Kaine (D) is guaranteed his party’s nomination, but the survey shows that both men enjoy huge leads over potential intraparty opponents.

The 2012 contest will play out in a state that has changed dramatically in recent years. Kaine — the former governor and Democratic National Committee chairman — draws strong support in portions of Northern Virginia, which has rapidly gained population, wealth and political clout. Allen, the ex-governor and senator, remains stronger in the rest of the state.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Indiana
KEYWORDS: allen; georgeallen; kaine; macaca; polls; timkaine

1 posted on 05/08/2011 10:12:44 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

Kaine is worse than Webb.


2 posted on 05/08/2011 10:14:14 AM PDT by Jane Austen (Boycott the Philadelphia Eagles!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

>according to a new Washington Post poll

Translation: the Republican leads by double digits.


3 posted on 05/08/2011 10:14:50 AM PDT by max americana (FUBO)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued
"candidates are tied at 46 percent among registered voters"

Worthless poll. Registered voters don't decide an election, LIKELY voters do.

4 posted on 05/08/2011 10:15:15 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

Looks like we’re in for another late night in select Northern VA/Richmond precincts.


5 posted on 05/08/2011 10:15:43 AM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: randita; hockey mom; Corin Stormhands; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; ...

This race could go either way, though George Allen ought to be polling better than he is IMHO. I still have doubts as to whether he’s so gaffe-prone that we would be better off with someone else as the nominee.


6 posted on 05/08/2011 10:16:56 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Muslims are a people of love, peace, and goodwill, and if you say that they aren't, they'll kill you)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj

In any case, the outer suburbs of northern Virginia (aka NOVA) appear to hold the key.


7 posted on 05/08/2011 10:18:11 AM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Muslims are a people of love, peace, and goodwill, and if you say that they aren't, they'll kill you)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

George Allen was a great governor and senator. How Kaine can even be close is shocking. Short memories of what Allen did for Virginia.


8 posted on 05/08/2011 10:18:53 AM PDT by katiedidit1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued; Corin Stormhands; Impy

The Compost loathes Allen. They only commissioned this poll utilizing a discredited method to give the false appearance that this is a tied race. It simply isn’t. If it was, they’d have released the results for likely voters, and for that, I guarantee Allen leads by (at least) 10%.


9 posted on 05/08/2011 10:20:30 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]



I don’t like being a harpy
But your donations are needed


Sponsoring FReepers leapfrog0202 and another person will contribute $10
Each time a new monthly donor signs up!
Get more bang for your buck
Sign up today

Save our coolest guy, Lazamataz.

10 posted on 05/08/2011 10:26:10 AM PDT by TheOldLady
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: max americana

I think this poll is good news for Allen.


11 posted on 05/08/2011 10:31:44 AM PDT by freedom1st
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

Tied among registered voters? Good. I expect turnout to decide the close contests and I expect a huge anti-Obama wave of turnout across all 57 states. ;)


12 posted on 05/08/2011 10:36:19 AM PDT by ez ("Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is." - Milton, Paradise Lost)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj
The Compost loathes Allen. They only commissioned this poll utilizing a discredited method to give the false appearance that this is a tied race. It simply isn’t. If it was, they’d have released the results for likely voters, and for that, I guarantee Allen leads by (at least) 10%.

The Washington Compost hates Allen more than America's worst enemies. This "news" operation literally made it their mission to destroy George Allen. They nurtured and promoted the "macaca" story with front page story after story to destroy Allen. To this day I don't even get what the big deal with saying "macaca" was.

Still, saying that, Allen handled it badly. Allen was a great governor and senator and I thought perhaps one day a strong Presidential candidate, but he really bungled the PR war on the whole "macaca" thing. It really would not surprise me if indeed he and Kaine are tied. As someone up thread mentioned, I do wonder if we might not have done better with a fresh face. This is Virginia so we have a lot of up and coming conservatives that might have made far better candidates. The Dem's put up their strongest contender and I wonder if we did as well.

13 posted on 05/08/2011 10:36:34 AM PDT by Longbow1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

Couple of tidbits. This is a registered voter poll, not likely voters. Sample is skewed Dem. and Allen does quite a bit better than Kaine amongst Independents. My guess is a “Likely Voter Poll” without the Dem. Skew will have Allen up by 10+.


14 posted on 05/08/2011 10:58:09 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

They must have polled the only two districts that voted Democratic in the last election.


15 posted on 05/08/2011 11:06:52 AM PDT by HarleyD
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: freedom1st
I think this poll is good news for Allen.

It's a pretty good starting point for him.

Kaine's going to be a tough opponent (he shouldn't be, of course), and given the partisan breakdowns of NoVA, Richmond and the Hampton Roads area I believe these numbers are credible.
16 posted on 05/08/2011 11:14:51 AM PDT by tanknetter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Jane Austen
Kaine is worse than Webb.

Yes, I sort of agree. You should have said Kaine is FAR worse than Webb. Kaine is scum of earth and as obnoxious as most of the Rats. I really despise the guy.

Virgina is schizophrenic politically. This is due in large part to Northern Virginia being part of the Washington D.C. liberal culture and the Tidewater Part being part of the military. In both cases you have large numbers of people who have no linkage to the rest of the state. These are the two largest population centers. The rest of the state is very conservative except for the black population which will always vote liberal. I looked at the results of the election Allen lost to Webb and it was Northern Virgina where he lost it. The Washington Compost was a big factor in smearing Allen in the last election. Allen was as good a senator as there was in Washington. But the liberal knives were out for him. It will be the same this time. Allen needs to be prepared for this. Kaine will make Virginians long for Webb. Webb was about as good as you were gonna get for a Democrat. That's not saying much but I really hope Virginians will put Allen back in. We desperately need to retake the Senate.
17 posted on 05/08/2011 11:20:54 AM PDT by truthguy (Good intentions are not enough.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: katiedidit1
How Kaine can even be close is shocking

Two reasons:

1. Northern Virginia

2. Washington Post Smears
18 posted on 05/08/2011 11:23:51 AM PDT by truthguy (Good intentions are not enough.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

Allen is a self-styled patrician doofus and stooge

Keane is a Democrat boot-licking doofus and stooge

gotta go with Allen


19 posted on 05/08/2011 11:26:58 AM PDT by lurp
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: lurp

Keane = Kaine


20 posted on 05/08/2011 11:27:44 AM PDT by lurp
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued
Tied...or even “close” guarantees marxist victory...The dead, inmates, and illegals will not be denied!
21 posted on 05/08/2011 11:28:12 AM PDT by SuperLuminal (Where is another agitator for republicanism like Sam Adams when we need him?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

Remind everyone of the truth: Kaine is a Hussein Cultist. That should take him down in Virginia to about 15% of the vote.


22 posted on 05/08/2011 11:46:55 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: truthguy
Kaine is not in good stead with the Democrat ran and file. As DNC chairman he delivered the most massive Republican victory seen in this country in the last 3/4 of a century.

They won't forget.

23 posted on 05/08/2011 11:47:16 AM PDT by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: truthguy

Yeh.. Northern Va. has plenty of liberals be it natives, transplants or foreigners. Its gonna be a fight and the race could be separated by only 1-2 percentage points in the end.


24 posted on 05/08/2011 12:28:03 PM PDT by tflabo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Clintonfatigued

The Washington Post typically oversamples democrats. This poll shows a mirror image of voter sentiment on the democrat/Republican voters, 86-10 and 10-85, with independents in favor of Allen 49-39. http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/politics/virginia-senate-2012-an-early-look/2011/05/07/AF9j97LG_graphic.html

With such an overwhelming independent vote on Allen’s side, and a mirror-image breakout on the democrat/Republican vote, the only way you could end up with a 46-46 tie is if you counted more democrats to balance out the independents.

The Post polls usually do this in Virginia elections. The Republican in early polls always shows up badly because of the democrat weighting. They hope to create a bandwagon effect for the democrat and demoralize the Republican base.


25 posted on 05/08/2011 12:43:42 PM PDT by oldbill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: truthguy

I agree. I should have said “far worse.”


26 posted on 05/08/2011 1:34:33 PM PDT by Jane Austen (Boycott the Philadelphia Eagles!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj

I was about to say the same thing.

But if Allen is tied with Kaine at 46% among registered voters, Allen’s probably up by only like 49%-43% among likely voters. Allen can’t afford to get cocky in this race.


27 posted on 05/08/2011 8:24:13 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: fieldmarshaldj

I just saw that the Washington Post used the same sample of registered voters for its Allen-Kaine poll as for its presidential-race poll that (risibly) has Obama thumping all Republican candidates: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_050042011_MON.html

So, among likely voters, Allen is probably up by more than the 6% I estimated.


28 posted on 05/09/2011 6:02:13 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: truthguy

not to mention Portsmouth, Norfolk, Suffolk..here’s hoping the grassroots voter show up in large numbers. Also..Richmond?


29 posted on 05/20/2011 3:57:07 PM PDT by katiedidit1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: truthguy

not to mention Portsmouth, Norfolk, Suffolk..here’s hoping the grassroots voter show up in large numbers. Also..Richmond?


30 posted on 05/20/2011 3:57:16 PM PDT by katiedidit1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson