Skip to comments.Official: Obama OK'd raid based on '50-50'chance bin Laden was there
Posted on 05/08/2011 2:14:52 PM PDT by UniqueViews
President Barack Obama gave the go-ahead for U.S. forces to raid a northern Pakistan housing compound based on "what was probably a 50-50 chance that Osama bin Laden was there," his national security adviser said.
"At the end of last year, we assessed that al Qaeda had been diminished ... to its weakest since 2001," said the security adviser...
On April 28, Obama attended the last of several National Security Council meetings focused on finding and going after the al Qaeda leader. During that meeting, some advocated for the commando raid while others advised against it, Donilon said, given there had been no clear-cut sightings of bin Laden by that point.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
You mean good for him for leaving the golf course when he was informed an operation was underway that he knew nothing about?
> > PANETTA ORDERED THE RAID ? ? Now THIS is believable.!
> > This, forwarded by a Marine friend, is devastating if true.! And I for
> > one would bet it is.! !
> > “What Valerie Jarrett, and the president, did not know is that Leon
> > Panetta had already initiated a program that reported to him and only him,
> > involving a covert on the ground attack against the compound.”
> > Q: You stated that President Obama was overruled by
> > military/intelligence officials regarding the decision to send in military specialists into
> > the Osama Bin Laden compound. Was that accurate?
> > A: I was told in these exact terms, we overruled him. (Obama) I have
> > since followed up and received further details on exactly what that
> > meant, as well as the specifics of how Leon Panetta worked around the president
> > s persistent hesitation to act. There appears NOT to have been an
> > outright overruling of any specific position by President Obama, simply because
> > there was no specific position from the president to do so. President
> > Obama was, in this case, as in all others, working as an absentee president.
> > (Notice that Panetta is NOT in the room)
> > This update comes some 24 hours after our longtime Washington D.C. Insider
> > first outlined shocking details of an Obama administration having been
> > overruled by senior military and intelligence officials leading up to the
> > successful attack against terrorist Osama Bin Laden. What follows is
> > further clarification of Insiders insights surrounding that event.
> > I was correct in stating there had been a push to invade the compound for
> > several weeks if not months, primarily led by Leon Panetta, Hillary
> > Clinton, Robert Gates, David Petraeus, and Jim Clapper. The primary opposition
> > to this plan originated from Valerie Jarrett, and it was her opposition that
> > was enough to create uncertainty within President Obama. Obama would
> > meet with various components of the pro-invasion faction, almost always with
> > Jarrett present, and then often fail to indicate his position. This
> > situation continued for some time, though the division between Jarrett/Obama and
> > the rest intensified more recently, most notably from Hillary Clinton. She
> > was livid over the presidents failure to act, and her office began a
> > campaign of anonymous leaks to the media indicating such. As for Jarrett, her
> > concern rested on two primary fronts. One, that the military action could
> > fail and harm the presidents already weakened standing with both the
> > American public and the world. Second, that the attack would be viewed as an
> > act of aggression against Muslims, and further destabilize conditions in
> > the Middle East.
> > Q: What changed the presidents position and enabled the attack against
> > Osama Bin Laden to proceed?
> > A: Nothing changed with the presidents opinion he continued to avoid
> > having one. Every time military and intelligence officials appeared to
> > make progress in forming a position, Jarrett would intervene and the stalling
> > would begin again. Hillary started the ball really rolling as far as
> > pressuring Obama began, but it was Panetta and Petraeus who ultimately pushed
> > Obama to finally act sort of. Panetta was receiving significant reports
> > from both his direct CIA sources, as well as Petraeus-originating Intel.
> > Petraeus was threatening to act on his own via a bombing attack. Panetta
> > reported back to the president that a bombing of the compound would result
> > in successful killing of Osama Bin Laden, and little risk to American lives.
> > Initially, as he had done before, the president indicated a willingness
> > to act. But once again, Jarrett intervened, convincing the president that
> > innocent Pakistani lives could be lost in such a bombing attack, and Obama
> > would be left attempting to explain Panettas failed policy. Again Obama
> > hesitated this time openly delaying further meetings to discuss the issue
> > with Panetta. A brief meeting was held at this time with other officials,
> > including Secretary Gates and members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, but
> > Gates, like Panetta, was unable to push the president to act. It was at
> > this time that Gates indicated to certain Pentagon officials that he may
> > resign earlier than originally indicated he was that frustrated. Both Panetta
> > and Clinton convinced him to stay on and see the operation through.
> > What happened from there is what was described by me as a masterful
> > manipulation by Leon Panetta. Panetta indicated to Obama that leaks regarding
> > knowledge of Osama Bin Ladens location were certain to get out sooner
> > rather than later, and action must be taken by the administration or the
> > public backlash to the presidents inaction would be significant to the
> > point of political debilitation. It was at that time that Obama stated an
> > on-ground campaign would be far more acceptable to him than a bombing raid.
> > This was intended as a stalling tactic, and it had originated from Jarrett.
> > Such a campaign would take both time, and present a far greater risk of
> > failure. The president had been instructed by Jarrett to inform Mr.,
> > Panetta that he would have sole discretion to act against the Osama Bin Laden
> > compound. Jarrett believed this would further delay Panetta from acting, as
> > the responsibility for failure would then fall almost entirely on him. What
> > Valerie Jarrett, and the president, did not know is that Leon Panetta had
> > already initiated a program that reported to him and only him, involving
> > a covert on the ground attack against the compound. Basically, the whole
> > damn operation was already ready to go including the specific team support
> > Intel necessary to engage the enemy within hours of being given notice.
> > Panetta then made plans to proceed with an on-ground assault. This
> > information reached either Hillary Clinton or Robert Gates first (likely via
> > military contacts directly associated with the impending mission) who then
> > informed the other. Those two then met with Panetta, who informed each of them
> > he had been given the authority by the president to proceed with a mission
> > if the opportunity presented itself. Both Gates and Clinton warned Panetta
> > of the implications of that authority namely he was possibly being made
> > into a scapegoat. Panetta admitted that possibility, but felt the
> > opportunity to get Bin Laden outweighed that risk. During that meeting, Hillary
> > Clinton was first to pledge her full support for Panetta, indicating she
> > would defend him if necessary. Similar support was then followed by Gates.
> > The following day, and with Panettas permission, Clinton met in private
> > with Bill Daley and urged him to get the presidents full and open approval
> > of the Panetta plan. Daley agreed such approval would be of great benefit
> > to the action, and instructed Clinton to delay proceeding until he had
> > secured that approval. Daley contacted Clinton within hours of their meeting
> > indicating Jarrett refused to allow the president to give that approval.
> > Daley then informed Clinton that he too would fully support Panetta in his
> > actions, even if it meant disclosing the presidents indecision to the
> > American public should that action fail to produce a successful conclusion.
> > Clinton took that message back to Panetta and the CIA director initiated the
> > 48 hour engagement order. At this point, the President of the United
> > States was not informed of the engagement order it did not originate from
> > him, and for several hours after the order had been given and the special ops
> > forces were preparing for action into Pakistan from their position in
> > Afghanistan, Daley successfully kept Obama and Jarrett insulated from that
> > order.
> > This insulation ended at some point with an abort order that I believe
> > originated from Valerie Jarretts office, and was then followed up by
> > President Obama. This abort order was later explained as a delay due to weather
> > conditions, but the actual conditions at that time would have been acceptable
> > for the mission. A storm system had been in the area earlier, but was no
> > longer an issue. Check the data yourself to confirm. Jarrett, having
> > been caught off guard, was now scrambling to determine who had initiated the
> > plan. She was furious, repeating the acronym CoC and saying it was not
> > being followed. This is where Bill Daley intervened. The particulars of
> > that intervention are not clear to me beyond knowing he did meet with
> > Jarrett in his office and following that meeting, Valerie Jarrett was not seen in
> > the West Wing for some time, and apparently no longer offered up any
> > resistance to the Osama Bin Laden mission. What did follow from there was one
> > or more brief meetings between Bill Daley, Hillary Clinton, a
> > representative from Robert Gates office, a representative from Leon Panettas office,
> > and a representative from Jim Clappers office. I have to assume that
> > these meetings were in essence, detailing the move to proceed with the
> > operation against the Osama Bin Laden compound. I have been told by more than one
> > source that Leon Panetta was directing the operation with both his own CIA
> > operatives, as well as direct contacts with military both entities were
> > reporting to Panetta only at this point, and not the President of the
> > United States. There was not going to be another delay as had happened 24 hour
> > earlier. The operation at this point, was in effect, unknown to President
> > Barack Obama or Valerie Jarrett and it remained that way until AFTER it
> > was already underway. President Obama was literally pulled from a golf
> > outing and escorted back to the White House to be informed of the mission.
> > Upon his arrival there was a briefing held which included Bill Daley, John
> > Brennan, and a high ranking member of the military. When Obama emerged from
> > the briefing, he was described as looking very confused and uncertain.
> > The president was then placed in the situation room where several of the
> > players in this event had already been watching the operation unfold.
> > Another interesting tidbit regarding this is that the Vice President was
> > already up to speed on the operation. A source indicated they believe
> > Hillary Clinton had personally made certain the Vice President was made aware
> > of that days events before the president was. The now famous photo
> > released shows the particulars of that of that room and its occupants. What that
> > photo does not communicate directly is that the military personnel present
> > in that room during the operation unfolding, deferred to either Hillary
> > Clinton or Robert Gates. The presidents role was minimal, including their
> > acknowledging of his presence in the room.
> > At the conclusion of the mission, after it had been repeatedly confirmed
> > a success, President Obama was once again briefed behind closed doors. The
> > only ones who went in that room besides the president were Bill Daley.
> > John Brennan, and a third individual whose identity remains unknown to me.
> > When leaving this briefing, the president came out of it much more
> > confident. Much more certain of himself. He was also carrying papers in his
> > hand that quite possibly was the address to the nation given later that
> > evening on the Bin Laden mission. The president did not have those papers with
> > him prior to that briefing. The president then returned to the war room,
> > where by this time, Leon Panetta had personally arrived and was receiving
> > congratulations from all who were present.
> > In my initial communication to you of these events I described what
> > unfolded as a temporary Coup initiated by high ranking intelligence and military
> > officials. I stand by that term. These figures worked around the
> > uncertainty of President Obama and the repeated resistance of Valerie Jarrett. If
> > they had not been willing to do so, I am certain Osama Bin Laden would
> > still be alive today. There will be no punishment to those who acted outside
> > the authority of the presidents office. The president cannot afford to
> > admit such a fact. What will be most interesting from here is to now see
> > what becomes of Valerie Jarrett. One source indicated she is threatening
> > resignation. I find that unlikely given my strong belief she needs the
> > protection afforded her by the Oval Office and its immense powers to delay and
> > eventually terminate investigations back in Chicago, but we shall see.
> > HERE’S THE LINK:
> > _http://socyberty.com/issues/white-house-insider-obama-hesitated-panetta-iss
> > ued-order-to-kill-osama-bin-laden_
> > (http://socyberty.com/issues/white-house-insider-obama-hesitated-panetta-issued-order-to-kill-osama-bin-laden) /
Very true - the mission would not have gone ahead if they really believed there was only a 50% chance that Bin Laden was in the compound. In my opinion, they must have known beyond all doubt that he was in there. This is just more propaganda designed to bolster the talking points that Obama made a "gutsy call." Of course, if George W. Bush had made the same decision based on only a 50% probability, it would have been called "reckless" and "irresponsible."
Sorry about the confusion. I meant that the world’s-gutsiest-fearless leader-killer diller-take noprisoners-no drama Obama had a 50-50 chance of being in the room in which the go decision was made. The confusion is understandable...Obama...Osama...what’s the diff? ;)
Now as regards to the odds of Bin-Laden being in the “mansion” I believe were far greater than the 50-50 attributed to this nameless(?) source if the reports of prolonged observation from
the “safe house” are true. Bin Laden’s observed routine of remaining within the compound say for 30 days would indicate, barring a sudden and out of routine departure, a very high probality that he would be ‘mise en scene’ as the Hollywood folk like to say, at home watching the tube.
The whole chain of intelligence upon which the mission was undertaken argues for odds on the order of better than 90%, given the location and the potential for really huge negative fall out if Bin Laden wasn’t home. Valerie Jarrod would not allow mere even odds to determine a go signal.
Bunch of BS. Our intel had fixed on a tall guy (unusual in the mid-east) pacing the compound on nearly a daily basis...and this we know just from the stuff that we’ve been told. I can’t imagine that anywhere near all of the intel has been revealed.
Let’s be real....He can’t make a damn decision. You can bet your booties that ssomeone else made the call for him. He’s just totally incapable.
You have the perfect screen name. LOL I post this on Facebook at least once a day to drive my few liberal friends crazy. But then, they’re crazy already.
The 1%....they had to be fast enough that Osama couldn't blow the place up.
“50-50 chance” That’s corn pone. That punk dawdled on 100%
chance. This is the media doing it’s part to keep the turtle
on the post.
“At the end of last year, we assessed that al Qaeda had been diminished ... to its weakest since 2001,” said the security adviser...” Bush’s Fault.
Only a total low rent ass clown takes credit for the work of
another man or men. When Obama leaves office he will become
So what was the risk? If he wasn’t there, it would be a non-story except that the US had not consulted with the Paks on getting a high level target. More than likely, very little details would have been provided publicly. In terms of risk/reward, it was a no-brainer.
“Id say theres a 50% chance Osama was not there.”
Yes me too. As the dust settles I feel less and less sure that they even killed the guy. The whole thing has played out so insanely my BS meter is just banging on 100.
First the story changes every 15 minutes. Then gruesome pics of all the other dead guys but not Osama. Not even the video of the ceremony and burial at sea. You would think that if they went to all that trouble they would want the arab world to see it. No TV debriefing by the generals, Then all the stories about what the wife and child said but we don’t get to hear them say it or even the Paki officials say it. Nada. At this point I don’t trust Obama or the Federal government farther than I can throw them.
Even Rush Limbaugh said he believed Osama was dead but he wasn’t sure he died last Sunday night. I’m not either.
It wasn’t Obama who did this operation. The military did the operation and told Obama that if he delayed it again that they would go to Congress and leak it and Obama’s stonewalling of the operation.
Agreed 100% - if Bin Laden hadn’t been there we wouldn’t have heard anything about the raid. That takes nothing away from the guys who actually got the job done...but there was little political risk.
We had fairly good intelligence including staking the compound out for a few months on the ground and from satellites. And we had the finest trained and equipped special op forces in the world to carry out the mission.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.