Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

And the award for the most ridiculous poll sampling goes to .... (take a guess before looking)
Hotair ^ | 05/11/2011 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 05/11/2011 6:50:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Move over, CBS. Hang up the kid-leather gloves, WaPo/ABC. There’s a new sample-skewing sheriff in town, and it’s the Associated Press. In a new definition of “outlier,” the AP reported that its latest poll from GfK Roper shows Barack Obama with a 60% approval rating in a survey of 1001 adults, with even his approval on the economy shooting past the 50% mark:

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has hit its highest point in two years — 60 percent — and more than half of Americans now say he deserves to be re-elected, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll taken after U.S. forces killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

In worrisome signs for Republicans, the president’s standing improved not just on foreign policy but also on the economy, and independent Americans — a key voting bloc in the November 2012 presidential election — caused the overall uptick in support by sliding back to Obama after fleeing for much of the past two years.

Comfortable majorities of the public now call Obama a strong leader who will keep America safe. Nearly three-fourths — 73 percent — also now say they are confident that Obama can effectively handle terrorist threats. And he improved his standing on Afghanistan, Iraq and the United States’ relationships with other countries.

Oddly — or perhaps not — the AP report doesn’t include a link back to the survey’s raw data. In order to find it, one has to go to GfK’s site for its AP polls. The partisan breakdown in the sample is found about halfway through the PDF, and it explains a great deal about how Obama managed to get such a high boost in this poll while others showed shallow bumps that had already started to subside.

The Dem/Rep/Ind breakdown in this poll is 46/29/4, as AP assigned most of the leaners to the parties. That is a 17-point gap, more than twice what was seen in the 2008 actual popular vote that elected Obama. It only gets worse when independents are assigned properly. When taking out the leaners, the split becomes — I’m not kidding — 35/18/27. Oh, and another 20% “don’t know.” That’s significantly worse than the March poll, in which the proper D/R/I was 29/20/34, and far beyond their post-midterm sample of 31/28/26. It’s pretty easy to get Obama to 60% when Republicans are undersampled by almost half.

Frankly, this sample is so bad that no real insights can be gleaned from it. I think it’s time to break out the Billy Madison verdict:

Tags: , ,


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: associatedpress; poll; sampling

1 posted on 05/11/2011 6:50:05 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Polls are conducted by zip code and area code. Easy to get any desired results to fit any agenda.


2 posted on 05/11/2011 6:54:42 AM PDT by Carley (We will not tire. We will not falter. We will not fail. W, 9/20/01)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I expect the poll will serve the purpose of demoralizing those who don’t think they can take 4 more years of what we’re getting now. The “60%” figure was prominently featured on the website for the Atlanta newspapers this morning, and it certainly left a sour taste in my mouth.


3 posted on 05/11/2011 6:56:01 AM PDT by madprof98 ("moritur et ridet" - salvianus)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Does anyone know how to get an email to an AP writer? I have tried to send an email to an AP writer more than once, but was never successful. AP is so powerful since so many “writers” in US newspapers use AP as their so-called source.


4 posted on 05/11/2011 6:56:25 AM PDT by Freee-dame
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Yeah, the Pubbie's should be shaking in their boots!!

When gas hits $5.00 a gallon, and the unemployment rate goes up to 10%, who KNOWS how high Obambi's ratings will skyrocket!!

The only thing 'high' in this polling sample were the pollsters, I would guess..

5 posted on 05/11/2011 6:57:08 AM PDT by Fedupwithit ("The welfare of humanity is always the alibi of tyrants" -Albert Camus)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Fedupwithit
The only thing 'high' in this polling sample were the pollsters, I would guess..

AND the poll-ees.....................

6 posted on 05/11/2011 6:58:51 AM PDT by Red Badger (Jesus said there is no marriage in Heaven. That's why they call it Heaven............)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

.......you had to know these figures were really skewed the minute they hit this morning.


7 posted on 05/11/2011 6:59:50 AM PDT by Recon Dad (Herman Cain is the man in 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: madprof98

Yep. Pure propaganda. It’s all over Yahoo too. Meant to inspire libs, convince indies and depress repubs.

The media is our enemy.


8 posted on 05/11/2011 7:01:18 AM PDT by nhwingut (Palin '12... Accept No Other)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Ap’s intent is to get this number into the RCP average to boost it up since it is almost right at the 50% mark and when the bounce fades from bin laden’s death he will, without outlier polls like this, sink rapidly back to where he was a couple of weeks ago.


9 posted on 05/11/2011 7:02:49 AM PDT by 101voodoo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Fedupwithit

how about all the commie dems that who themselves $5 gas! That voted themselves big losses in home values! Higher food prices! Bwahahahahahhahaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


10 posted on 05/11/2011 7:04:52 AM PDT by biggredd1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I expect push polling to be far worse this year.

I also expect divide and combine to be common.

break everyone up and then bundle the best obama image.

ie: 90 percent are either in favor of obama or undecided; but not saying what is “in favor”

They will also conceal via saying president not mr. obama.


11 posted on 05/11/2011 7:06:58 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
I usually start the day watching the ABC affiliate here in Houston for traffic and weather. Unfortunately, I have to listen to a few minutes of libtard news. They were giddy over the "latest poll" and did a hookup with Stephanopolis, who was practically wetting himself. They were pushing the poll so hard I knew it was bogus.

Baraq will probably get another bump out of this push poll.

12 posted on 05/11/2011 7:09:12 AM PDT by Sans-Culotte ( Pray for Obama- Psalm 109:8)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: longtermmemmory

I got polled ONCE by one of these outfits.
They asked your typical leading question and asked for my response, and I said “OH! This is a push-poll, isn’t it?”

[CLICK]

I’ve never been hung up on so fast in my life.


13 posted on 05/11/2011 7:11:55 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Thank you! I was looking for that info. The only thing I was able to find out was that this poll was conducted using cell phones and lan lines (which tend to leave out a lot of senior voters).


14 posted on 05/11/2011 7:12:12 AM PDT by marstegreg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

46D/29R/4I and 35D/18R/27I

You truly have to be sh*****g me.

I’m surprised AP even let this ridiculous sampling data to make it to the public realm. WaPo hides theirs on a regular basis.

This is ONE poll I don’t find particularly worrisome.


15 posted on 05/11/2011 7:14:22 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Imagine.... a world without islam.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Can pollsters be sued for malfeasance and fraud? This poll is, in fact, fraudulent to the core.


16 posted on 05/11/2011 7:14:29 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: WashingtonSource

Well, it might help to let the enemedia know that they are at the top of “the list” for when JFK’s prediction comes true.

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable.”


17 posted on 05/11/2011 7:16:15 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The AP should name it the brown noser we poll commiecrats poll. It is a joke. Internal polling shows Obama is in very bad shape or else he would not be rollin into TX with his lies nor would he be wagging and milking OBL.


18 posted on 05/11/2011 7:27:50 AM PDT by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid! (Allen West 2012 Make it happen!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

AP didn’t let it out- it had to be discovered though the actual pollster... I have tried to find polling data for other polls in the past, and when it is obviously questionable, the links are nt there, and some work must be done to discover it. When a news org like AP puts out a poll like this, they are NOT reporting the news, they are creating it.


19 posted on 05/11/2011 7:31:18 AM PDT by PghBaldy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
This poll is probably the biggest pile of poo that I have seen for a month.

How do these AP shills look at themselves in a mirror in the morning?

20 posted on 05/11/2011 7:40:15 AM PDT by Lysandru
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

According to this, it seems to be working on the general publik:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html

Obama is proving to be Teflon coated like Clinton was.


21 posted on 05/11/2011 7:42:56 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Always Remember You're Unique.......(Just Like Everyone Else.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!

The other telling thing is the recent outreach to Al Sharpton, who was considered radioactive before the last election.


22 posted on 05/11/2011 7:43:04 AM PDT by PghBaldy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: All

Have Your Say Every Day.

Free Republic Runs ONLY On Your Donations.
Make Yours NOW and End the FReepathon!

23 posted on 05/11/2011 7:44:04 AM PDT by paulycy (Islamo-Marxism is Evil.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: madprof98

I heard this poll on WOR this morning and the lib who was reading it was gleeful - gleeful. I absolutely do not believe this data.


24 posted on 05/11/2011 7:46:36 AM PDT by juliej
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: PghBaldy

They explain calling land line phones. It is of my opinion that only people with no common sense still have a LISTED land line phone. So therefore liberals were polled.

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/methodology.html


25 posted on 05/11/2011 7:49:13 AM PDT by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid! (Allen West 2012 Make it happen!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Lysandru
How do these AP shills look at themselves in a mirror in the morning?

They don't even try, being as they don't show up in them.

26 posted on 05/11/2011 7:58:15 AM PDT by Erasmus (I love "The Raven," but then what do I know? I'm just a poetaster.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
46/29/4

46 + 29 + 4 = 79

46/79 = .58 or 58%

29/79 = .21 or 21%

4/79 = .05 or 5%

so- they sampled a total of 79 people, 60% of them democraps, and then announce that it is 'worrisome' for republicans that Obama got 60%?

I think more telling is that he appears to have gotten ZERO PERCENT of independants and GOP.

If he gets ZERO independants and GOP in the next election, he is TOAST in a landslide.

27 posted on 05/11/2011 8:01:13 AM PDT by Mr. K (this administration is WEARING OUT MY CAPSLOCK KEY~!! [Palin/Bachman 2012])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The Dem/Rep/Ind breakdown in this poll is 46/29/4, as AP assigned most of the leaners to the parties.

My only question is why they allow ANY percentage for Republicans or Independants. Just make the breakdown D-100/R-0/I-0 and broadcast THOSE results!

28 posted on 05/11/2011 8:11:44 AM PDT by Lazamataz (The Democrat Party is Communist. The Republican Party is Socialist. The Tea Party is Capitalist.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind; All

It doesn’t matter what we think of this, or that this blatant polling fraud is uncovered.

It’s being repeated dutifully, over and over again, by the adoring media, and on Social Media over and over again.

As George Orwell would say, it’s fast becoming the CURRENT TRUTH, and there isn’t one damn thing we can do about it.


29 posted on 05/11/2011 8:27:21 AM PDT by tcrlaf (You can only lead a lib to the Truth, you can't make it think...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

And all the other residents of Harlem was still on the court or waiting by their mailbox for their food stamps.


30 posted on 05/11/2011 8:37:18 AM PDT by papageo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pride in the USA; Stillwaters

Good information to have at hand as you hear this reported as big “news” over the next several days.


31 posted on 05/11/2011 8:44:09 AM PDT by lonevoice (Where the Welfare State is on the march, the Police State is not far behind)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

This poll is (not surprisingly) being loudly touted over at DailyKos.

I was wondering what was going on.


32 posted on 05/11/2011 9:04:33 AM PDT by Tzimisce (Never forget that the American Revolution began when the British tried to disarm the colonists.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

46/29/4 sample?

That is 58% (D), 37% (R), and 5% (I)

And they think that this poll means that the GOP should be “worried”????

Look at the data another way- It means that ZERO PERCENT (R) and (I) pick Obama~!

If Obambi gets 0% of (R) and (I) in the next election HE IS TOAST BY A LANDSLIDE


33 posted on 05/11/2011 9:27:37 AM PDT by Mr. K (this administration is WEARING OUT MY CAPSLOCK KEY~!! [Palin/Bachman 2012])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tzimisce

Simple. The pussies at the WH were plainly crapping in their pants wondering where’s the big bounce in the polls. So, voila. A quick call to AP which basically said, “Hey boys. Can you whip up a poll showing Sir Barry getting a big bounce. But don’t make it too obvious, ha-ha.”

Pravda is a joke compared to A(lways) P(ropanganda). If the RCP site had any balls, they’d note this in dark red with a super asterisk and kick this out of the average saying they could not in good conscience include this obliviously skewed POS poll since they don’t want to insult the reader’s intelligence.


34 posted on 05/11/2011 9:33:07 AM PDT by princeofdarkness (The Obama Administration is circling the wagons. But the Truth Indians are using flaming arrows.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Well, when the GOP is proposing persons like Romney, Huckabee, Trump, Paul, etc, I am not surprised.

When the GOP gets serious about REVERSING the trends toward atheistic socialism in this nation, that is when they will see undeniable proof they will win. Until that time, let the Dems be the socialists and the Republicans and the nation will be the losers.

People are not going to vote for big government Republicans ever again, in meaningful proportions. Bush taught a great lesson.

35 posted on 05/11/2011 9:47:18 AM PDT by jacknhoo (Luke 12:51. Think ye, that I am come to give peace on earth? I tell you, no; but separation.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Of course, the poll doesn’t match these polls:
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/


36 posted on 05/11/2011 10:02:38 AM PDT by jacknhoo (Luke 12:51. Think ye, that I am come to give peace on earth? I tell you, no; but separation.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Freee-dame

info@AP.org


37 posted on 05/11/2011 10:58:31 AM PDT by loboinok (Gun control is hitting what you aim at!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Carley

Poll my zip code (21044) and you’ll see Obama’s approval rating at 79%.


38 posted on 05/11/2011 12:09:20 PM PDT by RockinRight (Herman Cain 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: RockinRight

Notice the definition of push poll included all pubbie “examples”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll#Political_push_polls


39 posted on 05/11/2011 1:02:13 PM PDT by AbolishCSEU (Percentage of Income in CS is inversely proportionate to Mother's parenting of children)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Polls of all adults are garbage.

Likely Voters in the appropriate percentages is the only valuable pre-election metric.

The best metric, of course, is winning.


40 posted on 05/11/2011 1:04:11 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I was awake at 0200 this morning listening to KSEV in Houston and heard Jon Belmont loudly and proudly proclaim this claptrap for all to hear. It then continued being reported with the same fawning adoration of obastard for the rest of the morning and into the day. I knew the poll had to be contrived. Sure enough, it is.. by AP themselves.

AP, the new Pravda.

A local issue but cant KSEV do better than AP for their radio news?


41 posted on 05/11/2011 1:26:08 PM PDT by Sequoyah101 (Half the people are below average.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RockinRight

That’s scary.


42 posted on 05/11/2011 5:02:26 PM PDT by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid! (Allen West 2012 Make it happen!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: Carley

Poll results are employed in accordance with the unspoken motives that triggered the exercise in the first place:

Namely, to confer moral authority for their usage as a legitimate tool of cultural intimidation against those whom the results have shown to be one’s adversaries.


43 posted on 05/11/2011 5:49:19 PM PDT by Ouderkirk (Democrats...the party of Slavery, Segregation, Sodomy, and Sedition)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!

I have one...


44 posted on 05/13/2011 4:30:26 AM PDT by PghBaldy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: PghBaldy

Yeah but is it listed to ring every five seconds with telemarketers?


45 posted on 05/13/2011 7:17:15 AM PDT by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid! (Allen West 2012 Make it happen!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!

It feels like it sometimes ;)


46 posted on 05/13/2011 6:00:01 PM PDT by PghBaldy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 45 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson