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Double Digit Inflation has Arrived
USAWatchdog ^ | 16 May 2011 | Greg Hunter

Posted on 05/16/2011 10:23:53 AM PDT by Graneros

New inflation figures were released by the government last week, and the news was not good. The headline inflation number was 3.2% in the 12 months that ended in April. That is more than a percent above the Federal Reserve’s “target” rate of 2% and the first time it has been more than 3% in over than 2 ½ years. Of course, the accounting gimmicks used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) understate true inflation, so things look better than reality. Nonetheless, in the latest report from economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com, even the government’s own “official” numbers will likely show double digit inflation in the next three months or so. The reason is continued money printing in the form of another round of Quantitative Easing (QE) by the Fed to prop up the struggling economy. Williams said, “The underlying pace of official inflation is accelerating, and could move into double-digits in third-quarter 2011. Preceding or coincident with that likely will have been some move to QE3 by the Fed and intense—if not panicked—selling of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets. Such a circumstance could be a base from which a hyperinflation might begin to unfold with some rapidity.”

And get this, inflation is already in double digits, according to Williams, if it was calculated the way BLS did it more than 30 years ago. Williams said, “. . . based on reporting of 1980, the April 2011 annual inflation rate would have been about 10.7%.” But, the double digit inflation story is not the one the mainstream media likes to tell. Instead, it usually focuses on what the government calls “core” inflation that excludes food and energy. The “core” inflation rate is .2%. Who lives in a world where the core of existence is not food and energy?

(Excerpt) Read more at usawatchdog.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Front Page News; Government
KEYWORDS: 2ndgreatdepression; bhoeconomy; cwii; economy; frugalliving; getreadyhereitcomes; gold; greatestdepression; greatestrecession; inflation; preparedness; preppers; prepping; recession; shtf; silver; survival; survivalping; tshtf
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Gotta love our disingenuous politicians. Who but politicians would cut out food and energy from the inflation numbers. We know why they do it. Simply put they are liars, cheats and frauds. Not to mention criminals.
1 posted on 05/16/2011 10:24:00 AM PDT by Graneros
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To: Graneros

Good for the seniors so they get a raise this year. Same with the military retirees who have lost out for two years. You have to look at the bright side of things folks.....lol.


2 posted on 05/16/2011 10:25:12 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: Graneros

Inflation with a collapsed real estate market? I don’t think so.


3 posted on 05/16/2011 10:25:53 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: napscoordinator

Not sure that military retirees are going to get an increase. I would think that the freeze Urkel announced on federal salaries includes federal retirees which include military retirees.


4 posted on 05/16/2011 10:28:35 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: Graneros
Double Digit Inflation has Arrived

Anybody who shops on a regular basis already knows this.

5 posted on 05/16/2011 10:29:55 AM PDT by Steely Tom (Obama goes on long after the thrill of Obama is gone)
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To: arrogantsob

Not sure that military retirees are going to get an increase. I would think that the freeze Urkel announced on federal salaries includes federal retirees which include military retirees.

That would be really crappy then. They are the last (after active military of course) folks who should lose the increase.


6 posted on 05/16/2011 10:30:32 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: arrogantsob

>>Inflation with a collapsed real estate market? I don’t think so.<<

Wanna bet? Imagine being hugely underwater in your house as your food, gas, clothing, etc. goes up in price 20% every year. And that is not inflation. Inflation is the devaluation of the currency, which is happening hugely as they print, literally and digitally, all the money they want to. Might as well use leaves for money - at least that will be the case in the next year or two.

Manipulation temporarily stopped the silver run. Expect it to return, with a vengeance. It is a bargain right now.


7 posted on 05/16/2011 10:32:11 AM PDT by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: napscoordinator

I agree.


8 posted on 05/16/2011 10:32:37 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: arrogantsob

Its the price of commodities.

There is no external competition in real estate, whereas there is a ton of competition in cotton, beans, wheat, corn, gold, silver, coal, oil, etc. You are not going to compete with China to buy the 3 bedroom ranch at the end of the street.

So, there will not be inflation in the housing market. In fact if you really want to be depressed, see what your house would be valued in gold, compared to last year.


9 posted on 05/16/2011 10:32:40 AM PDT by Vermont Lt (How long before the Mall becomes Tahifir Sq?)
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To: Graneros

The main cause of inflation right now is still the “do Nothing” “Restrict Supply” approach to energy. Monetary policy is not driving inflation, this is oil based.


10 posted on 05/16/2011 10:38:20 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: RobRoy; arrogantsob

You can get the best of both worlds, declining housing prices in the midst of overall price inflation. ouch!


11 posted on 05/16/2011 10:38:27 AM PDT by MrShoop
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To: napscoordinator

“Good for the seniors so they get a raise this year. Same with the military retirees who have lost out for two years. You have to look at the bright side of things folks.....lol.”

Who will pay for those COLAs? Do the COLAs get paid from magical stimulus dollars? Perhaps it may be good for these groups in the short run but it will be another blow to the country’s fiscal outlook in the long run.


12 posted on 05/16/2011 10:38:32 AM PDT by businessprofessor
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To: Graneros

This is Bush/Cheney/Haliburton’s fault.


13 posted on 05/16/2011 10:38:32 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: Graneros

QE2 ends 6/30/11

So I guess that’s doomsday


14 posted on 05/16/2011 10:38:48 AM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: RobRoy

Devaluation of a currency is not a cause of inflation it is a RESULT of inflation. In true inflation the price of housing escalates as rapidly as everything else.

Food, and clothing have not gone up by 20%. Fuel price increases are not the result of monetary disturbances but the result of supply suppression due to Urkel’s anti-energy policies. Food prices are high due to another non-monetary issue, the diversion of food stocks into automobile fuel tanks.

Monetary policy changes generally takes about two years to take effect. So it many be about ready to take off but so far it has not been much of an issue.


15 posted on 05/16/2011 10:39:48 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: Graneros

16 posted on 05/16/2011 10:41:42 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Vermont Lt
You are not going to compete with China to buy the 3 bedroom ranch at the end of the street.

And they remember the big losses the Japanese investors took when they bought Pebble Beach.

17 posted on 05/16/2011 10:42:17 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (If Dick Cheney = Darth Vader, then Joe Biden = Dark Helmet)
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To: arrogantsob

“Inflation with a collapsed real estate market? I don’t think so.”

I do. If not for the buckets of money they’ve been dumping into the leaky housing tub, prices would be a lot, lot lower.


18 posted on 05/16/2011 10:43:01 AM PDT by Tublecane
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To: dfwgator

19 posted on 05/16/2011 10:44:09 AM PDT by nascarnation
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Shake out a few over here

20 posted on 05/16/2011 10:44:38 AM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: businessprofessor

Who will pay for those COLAs? Do the COLAs get paid from magical stimulus dollars? Perhaps it may be good for these groups in the short run but it will be another blow to the country’s fiscal outlook in the long run.

Oh well. Big deal. I tried to get people to want to cut the budget and was shown that they will not get rid of their goodies. I was on many threads today trying to show FREEPERS that we are in trouble and they all shrugged their shoulders and said “who cares”.


21 posted on 05/16/2011 10:44:57 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: Vermont Lt

Actually we are net exporters in cotton, beans, wheat, corn so the significant force is not added competition but increased external demand for those products. Now it is true that the decline in the value of the dollar increases that demand but the dollar’s decline is more because of extraordinarily low interest rates here rather than the increased money supply. That might not remain true for long, however,

In periods of true inflation housing prices rapidly escalate. Look at the 70s for an example.


22 posted on 05/16/2011 10:45:43 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: Graneros

Gallows comes to mind.

I wonder what construction material can be used to build these structures, such as to be considered Green.

Green Gallows, they will be popular and soon, ready for service in a neighborhood near you.


23 posted on 05/16/2011 10:45:53 AM PDT by Gator113 ("GAME ON." I'll be voting for Sarah Palin, Liberty, our Constitution and American Exceptionalism.)
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To: DannyTN

“The main cause of inflation right now is still the ‘do Nothing’ ‘Restrict Supply’ approach to energy. Monetary policy is not driving inflation, this is oil based.”

That’s not true. Expanding supply would lower prices, obviously. But they’ve been resticting domestic exploration forever. Supply is more of a longterm problem, and can’t explain what’s been happening recently.


24 posted on 05/16/2011 10:46:07 AM PDT by Tublecane
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To: Tublecane
If not for the buckets of money they’ve been dumping into the leaky housing tub, prices would be a lot, lot lower.

I agree 100%. There is another significant leg down in prices ahead. The current price drop is with historically low interest rates. When "real" interest rates arrive, look out.

25 posted on 05/16/2011 10:46:26 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Graneros

On excluding nergy being disingenuous, would have to agree - it was $72 to fill up the minivan yesterday. It must perceived by Barry & Co. as some sort of optional luxury item...


26 posted on 05/16/2011 10:47:11 AM PDT by Made In The USA (This post may be recorded for quality purposes.)
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To: Graneros
Who lives in a world where the core of existence is not food and energy?

Not our glorious Parasitic class

Just wait to when after they spend our money on food there's no money left over to pay for their HBO on their 56" High Def TVs or no money to pay for their fancy rims and sub-woofers for their Cadillac Escalades.

I wouldn't want to be in one of our major cities when that day comes.

27 posted on 05/16/2011 10:48:09 AM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: arrogantsob

“Devaluation of a currency is not a cause of inflation it is a RESULT of inflation”

No, devaluation of currency is inflation, purely and simply. Look it up.


28 posted on 05/16/2011 10:48:09 AM PDT by Tublecane
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To: Tublecane

Housing price deflation might have been worse but the banks are still not marketing mortgages like they were before 08. The monetary expansion has not been put into housing. That mainly went to aiding the public sector unions as Rush is constantly harping on - the Democrat money laundering machine.


29 posted on 05/16/2011 10:49:09 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: arrogantsob

>>Devaluation of a currency is not a cause of inflation it is a RESULT of inflation. <<

Actually, devaluation of a currency due to the increase in volume of money is the dictionary definition of inflation. The rest is a reflection of the money being reduced in value. I learned this while arguing the subject with some more knowledgeable freepers than myself.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/inflation

But we’re arguing fringe issues, really.

>>Food, and clothing have not gone up by 20%.<<

You are correct. And I didn’t say they have. I said they WILL. And worse...

If you are not big into gold and/or silver, you could be in for a world of pain. Heck, you probably will be anyway. Me too.


30 posted on 05/16/2011 10:49:25 AM PDT by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: arrogantsob

“the dollar’s decline is more because of extraordinarily low interest rates here rather than the increased money supply”

Say what? What do you think lowering the rate of interest does, besides increase the money (or, more precisely, credit) supply?


31 posted on 05/16/2011 10:50:52 AM PDT by Tublecane
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To: RobRoy

“If,” he said tersely, “we could for a moment move on to the subject of fiscal policy ...”

“Fiscal policy!” whooped Ford Prefect, “Fiscal policy!”

The Management Consultant gave him a look that only a lungfish could have copied.

“Fiscal policy ...” he repeated, “that is what I said.”

“How can you have money,” demanded Ford, “if none of you actually produces anything? It doesn’t grow on trees you know.”

“If you would allow me to continue ...”

Ford nodded dejectedly.

“Thank you. Since we decided a few weeks ago to adopt the leaf as legal tender, we have, of course, all become immensely rich.”

Ford stared in disbelief at the crowd who were murmuring appreciatively at this and greedily fingering the wads of leaves with which their track suits were stuffed.

“But we have also,” continued the Management Consultant, “run into a small inflation problem on account of the high level of leaf availability, which means that, I gather, the current going rate has something like three deciduous forests buying one ship’s peanut.”

Murmurs of alarm came from the crowd. The Management Consultant waved them down.

“So in order to obviate this problem,” he continued, “and effectively revaluate the leaf, we are about to embark on a massive defoliation campaign, and ... er, burn down all the forests. I think you’ll all agree that’s a sensible move under the circumstances.”

The crowd seemed a little uncertain about this for a second or two until someone pointed out how much this would increase the value of the leaves in their pockets whereupon they let out whoops of delight and gave the Management Consultant a standing ovation. The accountants amongst them looked forward to a profitable Autumn.

- Douglas Adams, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe


32 posted on 05/16/2011 10:51:32 AM PDT by ctdonath2 (Great children's books - http://www.UsborneBooksGA.com)
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To: Tublecane

There is no need for me to educate myself about what “devaluation” or “inflation” are I am quite familiar with them.

When one speaks of “devaluation” generally it is with reference to exchange rates and it the RESULT of inflation. It is an EFFECT of inflation it does NOT cause inflation.

Inflation is an increase in the GENERAL price level and cannot occur without increases in the money supply greater than the increase in productivity.


33 posted on 05/16/2011 10:56:07 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: arrogantsob; Graneros
Not only is the definition of CPI deceptive, so is the accepted definition of inflation. Note the clarity and sensability of this definition of inflation from the 1959 Webster's New Collegiate Dictionary: "Disproportionate and relatively sharp and sudden increase in the quantity of money or credit, or both, relative to goods available for purchase. Inflation always produces a rise in the price level."

Notice that inflation is not the rise in prices. Inflation is the increase in the money supply. Triple digit inflation has already occurred. And notice again the statement of truth in the dictionary:

Inflation always produces a rise in the price level.

34 posted on 05/16/2011 10:56:38 AM PDT by The Truth Will Make You Free
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To: arrogantsob
The so called beltway say Obama is unbeatable as he does everything a President who is in a panic does, I think he knows the next 18 months are not going to be pretty.
35 posted on 05/16/2011 10:58:44 AM PDT by scooby321
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To: ctdonath2

Thank you. That is EXACTLY what I was referring to. Just saw the entire television series last Thursday and Friday. :)


36 posted on 05/16/2011 11:00:32 AM PDT by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: qam1

>>QE2 ends 6/30/11

So I guess that’s doomsday<<

Nope. It’s May 21st. ;)

http://www.google.com/search?q=may+21+2011&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a


37 posted on 05/16/2011 11:03:01 AM PDT by RobRoy (The US today: Revelation 18:4)
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To: Tublecane

Keynes showed in the 30s that it is not always possible to increase the volume of loans merely through decreased interest rates. This is the “liquidity trap” wherein the extra money is not lent out because no one has the confidence to undertake loans.

But almost instantaneously the exchange rates will be impacted by the lowered interest rates. Since we have floating exchange rates now there is no true “devaluation” any more as was the case with fixed exchange rates based on a commodity standard (gold).

Also relevant in examining price changes is the Velocity of Circulation or the number of times a dollar is exchanged during a year. If V is extraordinarily low an increase in the money supply will not be reflected in price increases for a long time. If it is high then even small increases in M will produce a big impact on prices.


38 posted on 05/16/2011 11:03:57 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: arrogantsob

We have inflation in food and energy.

The fact that you don’t see inflation in housing is because housing is still coming down from its bubble. Housing is still vastly overpriced and vastly overstocked - and the Fed are still keeping house prices pumped up with taxpayer money.


39 posted on 05/16/2011 11:08:33 AM PDT by agere_contra ("Debt is the foundation of destruction" : Sarah Palin.)
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To: arrogantsob
Since we have floating exchange rates now there is no true “devaluation” any more

Good to know that the buying power of the dollar is the same as it was fifty years ago.

40 posted on 05/16/2011 11:13:34 AM PDT by agere_contra ("Debt is the foundation of destruction" : Sarah Palin.)
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To: Graneros

I never thought I would look back on the Carter Presidency as the good old days, but I’m beginning to.


41 posted on 05/16/2011 11:22:41 AM PDT by cicero2k
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To: Tublecane
"Supply is more of a longterm problem, and can’t explain what’s been happening recently."

Oil prices started up way back during the Bush Administration. Oil prices were IMHO the primary cause of the 2008 financial crisis. And in turn, the primary cause of the mortgage crisis.

Bush couldn't move on oil because the 'rat congress had his hands tied. He should have moved on nuclear but he didn't.

Obama is going backwards on oil and moving very very slowly on Nuclear. (I'm really surprised Obama is moving at all on Nuclear but there have been a couple of small approvals.)

42 posted on 05/16/2011 11:23:28 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Graneros

As long as both numbers are reported and they are it does not matter that one number has food and energy stripped out. It is done not to fool people but to take out factors which vary rapidly.


43 posted on 05/16/2011 11:31:43 AM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: Jet Jaguar; NorwegianViking; ExTexasRedhead; HollyB; FromLori; EricTheRed_VocalMinority; ...

The list, ping

Let me know if you would like to be on or off the ping list

http://www.nachumlist.com/


44 posted on 05/16/2011 11:33:43 AM PDT by Nachum (The complete Obama list at www.nachumlist.com)
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To: The Truth Will Make You Free

Prices are measured in dollars therefore changing the latter changes the former. Inflation is the change in the general price level produced by increases (disproportionate in your definition) in the money supply. An increased money supply is not automatically reflected in the price level nor is inflation just an increase in the money supply. Only when it is reflected in the general price level does it become inflation.

Alternative theories of inflation point to demand-pull and cost-push causes although all three: cost-push, demand-pull and monetarism are not completely separate from each other. Nor are they mutually exclusive.

No one would care if the price level does not change.

It should also be noted that only in the last forty years or so has inflation been considered a bad thing in this country. In fact, we had political parties (Greenback Party, Populists, Bryan era Democrats) founded and calling for inflation as well as other political movements (The Free Silver movement.) As long as we had a currency based upon a commodity base (gold or gold/silver) hyper-inflations such as Germany in the 20s or China in the 30s or Latin America in many times were not possible.


45 posted on 05/16/2011 12:08:40 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: scooby321

I am one who believes anyone not a deaf-blind-mute could beat Urkel and I am not sure about the deaf-blind-mute.


46 posted on 05/16/2011 12:10:33 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: agere_contra

So, my daily lunch routine has been a Subway salad for a year or so now...Two weeks ago I went in and paid my usual $5.26 for that salad.

I went on vacation last week and when I went to buy another one today, the same salad cost me $8.21.

That new cost may or may not be entirely inflation, or it may be financial gimmickry at Subway or with the local franchise to increase profits, but it sure felt like inflation.

For better or worse, however, I will be buying a head of lettuce every other day now and pre-making my salads at home...There’s no way I’m dropping the better part of 10 bucks for a crappy salad every day.


47 posted on 05/16/2011 12:14:20 PM PDT by Heavyrunner (Socialize this.)
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To: agere_contra

That is not what my statement said. Purchasing power has declined but it is hard to argue that the average man today cannot buy as much as ever.

If the dollar was 1/4 of a pound sterling and was devalued to 1/5 of a pound it was what is generally in economics and finance thought of as a true devaluation. Today the relative values are determined by the international monetary markets on a daily/hourly/minute-by-minute basis rather than governmental decisions.


48 posted on 05/16/2011 12:16:50 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Why do They hate her so much?)
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To: arrogantsob

Keynes? Keynes!!!!

That bogus government rent boy is the reason this country is going down the toilet.

Him and his “theory” was the perfect excuse that gave government the green light to START what we are now in the mist of. The US dollar is so abused, is not being accepted outside this country, and is on the way out LIKE ALL FIAT CURRENCIES HISTORICALLY DO.

There is nothing new under the sun, including currency collapse.


49 posted on 05/16/2011 12:25:33 PM PDT by TruthConquers (.Delendae sunt publicae scholae)
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To: arrogantsob

“Keynes showed in the 30s that it is not always possible to increase the volume of loans merely through decreased interest rates. This is the ‘liquidity trap’ wherein the extra money is not lent out because no one has the confidence to undertake loans.”

Liquidity traps are indeed real, and one of the few Keynesianisms that aren’t figments of his imagination. But many an economist has sunk on the reef of your line of thinking in this post. We’re bumping up against a fundamental deficiency of empirical disciplines here: the problem of the seen and the unseen. You see credit expansion unable to reinflate the bubble to. What remains unseen is how low prices would be had credit not been expanded to where it is. Just because lower interest rates are not able to stimulate growth does not mean they aren’t causing inflation.

Pre-’08 prices are not the yardstick against which to judge whether there’s been inflation. Current market prices are. Since there is no free housing market, it’s impossible to say what they’d be. But I’m guessing they would be a lot lower


50 posted on 05/16/2011 12:28:07 PM PDT by Tublecane
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