THE BIG WINNER: ROMNEY

Dick Morris .com ^ | May 16,2011 | Dick Morris And Eileen McGann

[Hojczyk]

Now that two of the top three candidates for the Republican nomination have pulled out of the race, the big winner is the one candidate left standing: Mitt Romney.

The polling before Huckabee and Trump pulled out was — in my survey — Romney-22, Huckabee-20, Trump-15, Gingrich-11, Palin-9, Bachmann-6, Pawlenty-3, and Daniels-2.

Now, Romney will inherit a large proportion of the votes left on the table by Huckabee’s and Trump’s withdrawal. My polling suggests that, based on the expressed second choices of the Huckabee and Trump voters, Romney will get 30% of Huckabee’s voters and 40% of Trump’s. These additions should lift him over 30% of the vote and give him a 2:1 lead over the nearest contender (Gingrich).

Romney was having a terrible week. His speech on health care was terrible. With Massachusetts up in arms over Romney-care and Republicans dead set against the individual and employer mandate, his failure to repudiate his program would have cost him dearly. But now he is sitting on top of the world.

Republicans are a legitimist group. Having run before and paid his dues since, Romney is broadly attractive. He is seen as most likely to handle the economy successfully and most likely to defeat Obama. He new has the decided edge.

Gingrich, Bachmann, Daniels, and Pawlenty are the obvious other beneficiaries of the shifting cast of characters.

For Newt, the key is the debates that begin on June 7. (Tune into on to dickmorris.com for my play-by-play commentary — in writing — on the debate as it unfolds and for my video commentary on it as soon as it is over). If Newt can establish that his intellectual and rhetorical prowess can overcome his personal negatives, he could be on his way to a strong run at the nomination. But perhaps they won’t be enough. We’ll see.

For Bachmann, the key is to announce right away, first to keep Palin out of the race (Huckabee’s withdrawal will encourage her to run) and to lay claim to the evangelicals and Tea Party folks who would have backed Mike. Recent polling shows that the evangelicals and the Tea Party supporters are substantially the same people. They would be the base of a Bachmann candidacy and Michele needs to go out and claim them.

For Daniels, the withdrawal of Trump opens the way for him to become the main establishment business community rival to Romney. And Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the door for conservatives to support him as well. He needs also to announce soon to get into the fray.

For Pawlenty, the withdrawals may open the way into the race. With candidates as formidable as Trump and Huckabee sitting on their vote shares, there was little the former Minnesota Governor could do to get a word in edgewise. Now the way is open for him to get into the fray.

But the big, big winner is Romney. It is now a rebuttable presumption that Romney will likely be the nominee. And that’s huge.

[chicagolady]

Dick Morris is a HACK!

He wrote this Pro-Romney article because Karl Rove told him to!

[Opinionated Blowhard]

LOL. Morris is at it again. This will be just as accurate as his prediction of a Clinton - Giuliani 2008 contest.

[Mr. K]

Until Sarah Palin comes along ans shoo’s him out of the way

enjoy it while you can “Mitt”

I will NOT vote for you even if it means sitting home (I will not for for obambi either, duh)

[Puppage]

Republicans are a legitimist group.

A group of what?

Having run before and paid his dues since, Romney is broadly attractive.

Since when is the fact that one has run in the past a positive the 2nd time around? How does THAT make you attractive?

[alicewonders]

I’ve noticed a subtle change at FOX - Romney is their guy.

The fix is in.

[smalltownslick]

I love this image! Could someone create it?

[Biggirl]

Rommy will not last, two reasons, ROMMYcare and being a MORMON.

[Grunthor]

I’ll back him if he wins the nomination, but lets make sure it never comes to that, huh?

[Hojczyk]

Open primaries favor Mit...GOP will just have Rinos til they close the primaries..

[wk4bush2004]

“Until Sarah Palin comes along ans shoo’s him out of the way”

Absolutely right! Once Sarah announces, Romney’s funds will suddenly dry up and he will free-fall in the polls. Sarah has far more support than the liberals and RINOs realize.

[FrankR]

Sarah is playing rope-a-dope with them and they just don't know it.

But, the left will push Romney to be our candidate by cross voting at the polls in the primary...McCain redeux

[Dr. Sivana]

Republicans are a legitimist group.

Yeah, like Pat Robertson beating the sitting vice president in Iowa, or TV pundit and author Pat Buchanan winning New Hampshire in 1996.

These polls mean nothing at this point. The seeds that Romney and Gingrich have planted will only grow into thistles choking their campaign given time. I betcha Dick Morris figured that the Cubs would have won a few more division championships because they were ahead in the middle of May.

Huck's votes will go to a credible social conservative. They ain't going to P.P. McRomney. Palin, Bachmann, Cain, even T-Paw and Daniels have more credibility.

[A. Morgan]

Looks like Dick has been hanging around the race track too much, again! Dick, you are full of horsehocky!

[onyx]

[joe fonebone]

"Recent polling shows that the evangelicals and the Tea Party supporters are substantially the same people."
I buy into the tea party, but am not an evangelical.....am I an anomoly??

[brownsfan]

Romney is a disaster, but I’d vote for him in a heartbeat over Obama.

The big trick here is to find someone we can live with that the squishy middle will vote for.

[chainsaw]

This sounds like the democrats are trying to pick the republican candidate again, like they did for 2008, with RINO McNasty the blindsider.

They know Romney doesn't have a chance in hell of winning the WH! While Palin and Bachmann both could easily beat Zero.

Give me Palin or Bachmann or both.

[Scanian]

No bull.

You really have to wonder how that fat toad stays employed.

[American Quilter]

This will be just as accurate as his prediction of a Clinton - Giuliani 2008 contest.

Didn't he write a book based on a Hillary-Condi race? He was wrong about that, too. What REALLY ticks me off is that he said last night on "Hannity" that Newt was right to say what he did about Paul Ryan's budget.

It appears to me that both Romney and Newt are trying to prevent Obamacare from being repealed; they want to "tweak" and "improve" it. Nothing could be more disastrous for our country. Paul Ryan's budget bill MUST be passed, and a true conservative, like Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman, or (my preference) Herman Cain must be elected in 2012.

[alicewonders]

I buy into the tea party, but am not an evangelical.....am I an anomoly??

Nope. I'm not an evangelical either, and I know lots of other Tea Partiers that are not.

[Dansong]

Romney, Titanic. Palin, iceberg. Morris: Full speed ahead!

[chainsaw]

Rommy will not last, two reasons, ROMMYcare and being a MORMON.

You got that all wrong. It’s:

Rommy will not last, two reasons, ROMMYcare and being a MORON.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

And just since the subject line is in caps:

WHAT IS IS ABOUT ROMNEY THAT HE HAS TO SHOUT TO GET ATTENTION.

[iceskater]

The primary issue for the Tea Party is fiscal sanity and constitutionalism. While many Tea Partiers are evangelicals, I don’t think social conservatism was the primary reason for the development of the Tea Party.

Dick Morris should have figured that out when he spoke at the Virginia Tea Party Convention last fall.

Idiot.

[mirkwood]

[WalterSkinner]

..somebody is on crack if they think most evangelicals will vote for Romney—agree with or not—ain’t going to happen...

[bwc2221]

Dick Morris is dumber than a bag of hammers, but smart enough to parrot the RINO line for his masters at FNC.

[jagusafr]

“paid his dues”

This is the political phrase that gets me most incensed. Both sides use it (had a Democrat lawyer call me to get me to vote against a newbie district court judge because “she hasn’t paid her dues”), and all it means is that they’re not part of the current crop of back-scratchers.

GOOD!

Colonel, USAFR

[Sudetenland]

Time for Herman Cain to step forward.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Mittens Romney == John McKeating == Bob Dull ==> Ubama II

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

I was barely able to hold my nose for a war hero, plus Palin, opposing Hussein 0bama.
I will never do that for Romney. Not even if he picked Palin for veep. Let the country endure or succumb to 4 more years of 0bamanism, I will not vote for Romney.

[wayoverontheright]

All the talk about Sarah being "unelectable", and here we have someone making predictions as if the 2010 election didn't happen, and there is no Tea Party. It is my opinion that the ranks of the Tea Party have grown since 2010, and Sarah is on the right side of our issues, while Romney is simply unelectable because the Tea Partiers would (for the most part) sit on their hands if he's the nominee.

What am I missing here?

If it's Romney versus the Drilla from Wasilla, I'm going with the Drilla.

[Allegra]

I buy into the tea party, but am not an evangelical.....am I an anomoly??

No, but Dick Morris is an idiot.

[bwc2221]

“Rommy will not last, two reasons, ROMMYcare and being a MORMON.”

As long as a politician is not Muslim, I am fine with him/her. I believe most voters feel the same way.

The two things Romney has going against him are RomneyCare and his history of flip flops.

[9YearLurker]

Trump wasn’t going to be one of the top three candidates—and Dick Morris knows better than that!

[bwc2221]

“I’ve noticed a subtle change at FOX - Romney is their guy.”

Subtle? FNC is primarily RINOs and neocons. I completely stopped watching several months ago. The closest thing to a conservative on FNC is Hannity and he is a babbling moron.

[Yet_Again]

They are desperate to convince us to vote for one of the axis of weasels, aren’t they...Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Daniels.

At this rate I a, going to hav to vote for Ron Paul.

[joe fonebone]

thanks alot....now i gotta clean the coffee off of my keyboard.... :)

[9YearLurker]

Old RINO operative and Romney hand Mike Murphy was on ricochet.com’s podcast this week saying he could see Bachmann winning the Iowa caucuses, which would keep TPaw from getting traction.

I wonder if the talking up Bachmann and trying to hurry her in the race is largely a way of trying to keep Palin out.

[Reagan Man]

If the GOP chooses Romney, he will lose.

Time for a red blooded conservative to grab the ball and run with it.

[TomGuy]

Hillary v Condi 2008

{crickets chirping}

{crickets chirping}

{crickets chirping}

{crickets chirping}

[chicagolady]

Watch your spelling ..it’s MORON!

[Kartographer]

You got that right! I look for evangelicals to move to Cain now that he has traction and even the ‘LameStreamMedia’ know of Cain’s popularity with the Tea Party.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fk6PA48uR50&feature=related

[dfwgator]

Rommy will not last, two reasons, ROMMYcare and being a MORMON.

You can bet the MSM has all of their exposés on the Mormon Church in the can, just waiting for Mitt to be the nominee.

[allmendream]

You may or may not be aware of this, but there are OTHER elections that will be decided that day.

“Sitting home” is not the act of a serious adult.

[Ditter]

I agree, those 2 things, romneycare and being a mormon, will hurt him badly. The first liberal newsperson who asks him if he is wearing his holy underwear, and it is all over.

[jacknhoo]

Remember the real Romney! No Votes for RINOs

[andy58-in-nh]

At a purely academic level, Morris is correct: Romney currently stands to be the big "winner" from Huckabee and Trump's decisions, as he will inherit some of their financial and political backing.

That does not serve as an endorsement, nor do I believe Dick meant it to be one. But he also fails to address the more substantive, existential issues facing the Republicans.

Specifically, the GOP has a real problem, and it is not going away anytime soon: the Party leadership hates its own base, and the feeling is mutual. Conservatives are on the outside once again, looking in, just as they were from 1960 (I might even argue 1952) until 1980.

What they need - in addition to kicking out the principle-free party hacks - is a candidate who can attract members of both main Republican camps - Libertarian-leaning fiscal conservatives (white-collar, urban/suburban), and Evangelical social conservatives (blue-collar, rural/exurban) without alienating too many of either group while winning back some of the independent voters who flocked to Barack Obama in 2008.

It's a tall order, granted. But that's what is required to win, and among the announced candidates, Romney has ZERO chance of making it happen, because he manages to alienate members of both core GOP groups.