Skip to comments.Hedge Farm! The Doomsday Food Price Scenario Turning Hedgies into Survivalists
Posted on 05/19/2011 7:51:55 AM PDT by OB1kNOb
On the rare occasion that New Yorkers talk about farming, it's usually something along the lines of what sort of organic kale to plant in the vanity garden at the second house in the Adirondacks. But on a recent afternoon, The Observer had a conversation of a different sort about agricultural pursuits with a hedge fund manager he'd met at one of the many dark-paneled private clubs in midtown a few weeks prior. "A friend of mine is actually the largest owner of agricultural land in Uruguay," said the hedge fund manager. "He's a year older than I am. We're somewhere [around] the 15th-largest farmers in America right now."
"We," as in, his hedge fund.
It may seem a little odd that in 2011 anyone's thinking of putting money into assets that would have seemed attractive in 1911, but there's something in the air-namely, fear. The hedge fund manager and others like him envision a doomsday scenario catalyzed by a weak dollar, higher-than-you-think inflation and an uncertain political climate here and abroad.
The pattern began to emerge sometime in 2008..........
(Excerpt) Read more at observer.com ...
Whether you agree or disagree, it's a good topic to discuss and debate because it causes each of us to think in terms of being prepared for whatever life throws at us, and being prepared is, in and of itself, not a bad thing. In fact, it's the Boy Scouts motto, "Be Prepared", and we all need to take some time out from our ratrace daily schedules to ponder just what that means to us individually.
Ping - for your weblink of useful info.
If real people with real money are taking the problem seriously, and looking to make money off it, then it is already mitigated. That’s how capitalism is supposed to work.
So stop selling America’s food abroad.
And stop buying so much tech from China.
A win-win. We bring back American jobs, and keep our own food.
Time to invest is now! And the investments of the hour are food, guns, ammo, common household and cleaning supplies and seeds. A crash is coming it just remains to be seen if its a hard one or a controled one.
Those of you who maybe just starting to prep might like to take a look at my Preparedness Manual which thanks to Freeper eaker is available for free download at:
Sure, their quality of life may decrease, but they will survive. Me and mine, I'm not so sure.
Idea: what does an elite taste like?
I’m thinking about buying MREs or some other type of dried food for long-term storage. Any suggestions?
I have plenty of ammo, fuel, tools and water. Still plenishing my pharmaceutical supplies.
Interesting Jim Rogers interview from 2009:
Fund Managers can become farmers: Jim Rogers
4 Jun 2009, 0005 hrs IST, ET Bureau
Jim Rogers ON COMMODITIES: The Bull Market Will Go Up, Consolidate, Go Up, Consolidate, Go Up And Consolidate...
TBI ^ | 5-7-2011 | Gus Lubin
Posted on Saturday, May 07, 2011 9:37:11 AM by blam
Jim Rogers didn’t buy or sell anything during last week’s commodity sell-off.
He says he isn’t good at market timing. What he does believe is that we’re in the middle of a commodity bull market where everything will go up for years.
Rogers tells the Economic Times:
“5% correction in gold is meaningless. These things correct 10-15-20-30% every year. Nothing unusual about that. That is the way the markets work. I do not see anything unusual. I expect there would be more correction during the course of the bull market. I hope that the bull market goes up, consolidates, goes up, consolidates, goes up and consolidates for years to come. That is my expectation for all commodities.
“I have not sold any commodity. I own all my commodities. We are in a flexible bull market. I hope I am smart enough in the entire 15 years to realize when the commodity bull market is finally coming to an end, I am probably smart enough to sell. This commodity bull market will probably end in a bubble. Most bull markets and most sectors, whether it is stocks, real estate, whatever it happens to me, lands in a bubble. We are far-far-far from a bubble so far.”
That's easy. America has been a net-food-importing nation since about 2000.
Don’t buy MRE’s - very expensive for one meal. Buy mylar bags and food storage buckets with O2 absorbers and load up on staples such as beans, rice, sugar, flour, wheat, and salt. Buy canned foods such as tuna, chicken, and fruits. Load up on honey (last a long time) and ramen (sp?) noodles and spam if u want to do it on the cheap. Get a good water filter and store some water along with a small rocket stove and you will make you money go much much further than MRE’s.
ping to self to read later
Productive agriculture land is about 50% of my diversified portfolio. I am moving to increase that portion by about 20% in the near future. There is no substitute and the supply is shrinking.
Actually, the US is the #1 exporter of ag products in the world. We are 5% of the population and responsible for 15% of the global supply of ag products.
Other FReepers are better qualified than me to suggest the best prices and suppliers of MRE's. As for other dried foods one can go the route of buying freeze-dried or dehydrated food in #10 cans from a number of sources on the web. You might search Sam's Club and Costco's websites who also have lines of long storage food available.
Personally, as for my house, we have focused more on filling a well stocked pantry of various can and dry goods and spices we find on sale with a year or more future expiration date, which we currently use and rotate.
For longer term storage I am focusing on storing large quantities of basics, i.e. several different kinds of dry beans and peas, rice, pasta, powdered milk, potato buds, etc. which I am repackaging into mylar storage bags with oxygen depleters, and stored inside 5 gallon food grade plastic buckets with lids for extra protection against bugs and rodents. I find doing it myself saves me quite a bit from ordering bulk foods packaged this way.
I've also expanded the garden this year to grow additional quantities of shell beans, purple hull peas, squash, and okra. We will be canning and freezing the excess. In addition, we've added to our permacultures by planting more apple and plum trees, blueberry bushes, blackberries, and muscadines, and multiplying onions this Spring.
I hope this helps.
Sounds like you are ahead of the game in the productive land arena. Kudos on your foresight.
We must be using the same playbook! Every time my wife comes back with cases of various vegetables on sale, she tells me she's been hard at work "canning" all day, LOL!
Thanks for the links. I’m always interested in what Jim Rogers has to say about these related issues.
I agree with you. I never got the obsession with MREs. Stock up on the basics instead, like you said, and then you can do a thousand things with them. Every one of the things you mentioned can be combined and prepared into a thousand different things—so you won’t get tired of them.
I’m not a self-appointed “survivalist expert” so what do I know, but my parents lived through WWII in Italy as the Allies were fighting their way up the peninsula. They always told me that their neighbors who did the best during the war were the farmers—they had everything they needed right there.
Nobody got through 10 years of the Depression depending on K-rations. They gardened and stored food.
Don't stock up on brown rice, it may be more nutricious, but white rice has a much longer shelf-life.
Thanks for the advice!
***”Additionally, there isn’t much arable land out there, it’s not increasing, and the quality of the land varies from parcel to parcel.”
I radically disagree with the article’s quote above. There is tons of available arable land, once we stop wasting it.
The suburbs here in the Northeast are filled with acre upon acre of grass. Grass that no animal will ever graze on. And people fill their yards with ornamental, not edible, trees and flowers. Many people will specifically cut down food-producing trees because they hate to have walnuts or black cherries or mulberries or whatever dropping their fruits and making a mess of the precious lawn.
So we give up some degree of self-sufficiency to look pretty.
This behavior is just plain dumb, I’m sorry, and wasteful of what the good Lord gave us on this earth.
Now imagine if we all had a change in mentality. Imagine if we saw our homes as little homesteads, like this:
Hot sauce is the key lots and lots of hot sauce!
Not a lot of difference in a hedge fund manager and a pimp and a bookie, except with the pimp you get someone that will not lie to you about screwing you out of your money.
I radically disagree with the articles quote above. There is tons of available arable land, once we stop wasting it.
I agree with you for the reasons you enumerate.
Now imagine if we all had a change in mentality. Imagine if we saw our homes as little homesteads....
I have noticed a marked rise in interest of growing one's own garden in the last year or two, by a number of acquaintances that in the past have not raised anything. I suspect as times get tougher and food prices skyrocket higher we'll begin seeing a large increase in the number of individual home's with "Obama-depression gardens".
No so hard since my heritage is steeped in agriculture although, now I am more a gentleman farmer.
Don’t forget the oil and the salt and more spices wouldn’t hurt.
Absolutely. I’ve heard it from a couple of garden stores—people are really looking for edibles.
I’m kinda glad we never got to move into the acreage we wanted, because I’m learning a lot pushing the limits of what I can produce in my tiny backyard. It’s really opening my eyes about the productive use of space.
I have 3 freezers and all are full to the brim and my husband took a beef to get processed and he’s going to kill me when I tell him that we have to get another freezer.
And in the West they have sewn up millions of acres of “wilderness” where no one can go unless on foot or horseback. It used to be grazed by cattle until then, now it burns because the underbrush is so thick it kills the trees and the habitat.
Grain, yes, much of it for animal feed. Most other edible foodstuffs, no. The dollar balance on HUMAN FOOD has been negative since 2000. I've been on this for a while:
Want a REAL source?
Here is a 100 pp paper on the topic prepared for the Millennium Round of the WTO by the Center for North American Studies.
Here is the PowerPoint slide presentation that goes with it.
We are a net agricultural exporter. We are a net FOOD importer. (You can't eat cotton, tobacco, catfish, animal feed, and soybean meal).
Yikes. Sobering. So if the dollar tanks, we are in huge trouble?
In the transient case, yes, because the nation only has a few months worth of food stores (JIT you know). We have plenty of productive land that can be converted to food production, but whether the tooling, knowledge, labor, and distribution exists to make that change under the duress of chaos is unknown.
Comparative advantage has its unaccounted and socialized risks.
National security starts with food security, but is founded in human relationships based in a common morality. Somebody taught us how to manage that risk 3,500 years ago, but nobody seems to have listened.
tooling, knowledge, labor, and distribution exists
I am of the opinion that we don’t have the above and you left out financing.
The American farmer’s average age is 57 and farmers really need apprenticeships rather than a formal education. It is hard to impossible to grow up in a city and decide to farm, even if you have the financial backing. It is even hard to come from another part of the country and try to farm, you have to learn what works with each crop, the land and the water.
I’ve seen many who tried and many who failed. One notable example was the guy who inherited 7 Million and within less than 7 years was broke.
What we export is not necessarily what we can’t eat—we raise 77 million acres of soybeans and export 35%. The 35% could come close to feeding the entire population of the US for a year. WE can also eat catfish, and most of what is in animal feed too. I use the USDA Stats. And finally, we can grow a lot more food if need be. Parts of Iowa and Illinois have the best test soil in the world. We are scheduled to grow about 90 million acres of corn this year.
See post 37.
I use the USDA Stats.
IMO, they my be truthful, but they are also full of spin. I found the TAMU stats sufficiently detailed and trended to get an honest idea of what portends.